J O H N A . H U G H E S

IS KENNETH WALTZ CORRECT, SHOULD IRAN

GET THE BOMB ?

NEOREALIST LENS

• Branch of Realism• Focus on power politics proposed by classical theorists ( Hobbes,

Machiavelli, Thucydides )• Rise of Realist thinkers, E. H Carr & Hans. J Morgenthau• E.H Carr’s The Twenty Year’s Crisis (1939): struggle for power, “haves

& have-nots” • Hans J. Morgenthau’s Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power

and Peace (1948): Human nature, statecraft, national security.

• Theory of International Politics (1979), Kenneth N. Waltz • Does not focus on human nature, statecraft or ethics in foreign

policy that Morgenthau proposed • Focuses on structures • Domestic structures • “Relative Capabilities” (a states power)

NEOREALIST BALANCE OF POWER THEORY

• Peace and be achieved through Balance of Power• If states build equal military and economic abilities • Alliances • Occurred during the Cold War ( bipolar system) • Post Soviet Union ( multipolar system) • Advocates for nuclear proliferation

ASSESSMENTS & CRITIQUES

• Waltz is Selective in his History • Bipolar systems do not guarantee peace • World War I (arms races and alliances) • Waltz argues World War I was caused by “chain-ganging” and

codependent alliances • Not a satisfactory response

• Cold War was not a peaceful time • Proxy wars • Waltz ignores this

IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM: CURRENT CONTROVERSY

• Does Iran have a nuclear weapon ? • Iran: No, its for peaceful purposes to make energy and be used for

medical research. • United States & West, Yes: Fearful they are working towards making a

nuclear weapon. Cites intelligence reports and lack of IAEA cooperation and to suspend uranium enrichment. Also peaceful programs can be dual-purpose

• Why does Iran not Cooperate with the IAEA ? • Fell they do, just the IAEA ask for too much that is does not ask from

other states, especially Israel • Other powers such as the US have known nuclear weapons and are not

regulated or investigated by the IAEA

• What’s Wrong with Iran Getting a Nuclear Weapon? • Gives them influence • Could be used against Israel • Could be used against the West.

EARLY NUCLEAR PROGRAM (1957-1974)

• President Eisenhower “Atoms for Peace Program • 1968 (signed 1970) Nuclear Nonproliferation

Treaty (NPT) & 1974 signed Safeguards Agreement with International Atomic Energy Agency

• 1970s, France & Germany also provided Iran assistance

• 1974 India had a successful nuclear test, US national intelligence agency feared Iran developing a weapon

• France pulled back on a deal two build two reactors in Darkhovin, and Germany withdrew from building a pair or reactors in Bushehr

• 1979 Iranian Revolution West reversed support • 1979Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini canceled

program, deemed it “anti-Islamic”

RETURN TO NUCLEAR

• 1982 began to rebuild nuclear program• 1985 CIA reported that Iran was interested in

building a nuclear weapon, predicted it would take at least a decade• 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comes to power. • 1995, CIA report predicted by 2000 Iran could

produce a weapon with foreign assistance • Worked with Russia, N. Korea, China and Pakistan

to help restart Bushehr and Darkhovin projects

START OF CONTROVERSY

• August 2002 Alireza Jafarzadeh of the National Council of Resistance of Iran declared two nuclear sites under construction • Natanz (underground) • Arak (heavy water) • U.S intelligence agencies were aware of these facilities but reports

remain classified • Israeli intelligence was also aware • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) not aware of this • Launched investigation fall 2002. • Did Iran violate the NPT? • No, when Iran signed countries were not required to notify IAEA until

introducing nuclear material into facilities• IAEA changed agreement in 1992, requiring notification during the planning

stage. • Iran did not sign the 1992 agreement until February 2003.

INTERNATIONAL CONCERN

• Fall 2003 EU-3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) • Wanted to take diplomatic route to answer questions about

Iran’s nuclear program: Produced Tehran Declaration and Paris Agreement

• IAEA Reports 2003-2005 • Reported Iran failed to fully report all nuclear acquisitions and

activities• Found no evidence of nuclear program, but was unable to

conclude if it was peaceful

• Election of President Ahmadinejad 2005-2006 • 2006 P5+1 China, France, Germany, Russia, the United

Kingdom & United States • July & December 2006 UN Security Council demanded

Iran suspend its uranium enrichment, later that year imposed sanctions • Cut off nuclear cooperation • Froze assets of those tied to Iran’s nuclear program• Resolutions from 2007-2009 expanded/ reaffirmed these

sanctions. • Imposed harsher sanctions in 2010

IAEA REPORTS

• 2007-2008 • Iran was cooperative • Could not prove or disprove nuclear weapon • US National Intelligence could not find evidence of a

nuclear program

• 2009 • Iran became less cooperative with IAEA requests • Increasingly started to enrich uranium

• 2010• Iran enriching enough uranium to make two nuclear

weapons

IAEA REPORTS

• November 2011 IAEA Report • Inspectors have credible evidence that Iran had been conducting

experiments aimed at creating a nuclear bomb up until 2003 • Identified “large explosive containment vessel” • IAEA passes resolution expressing “deep and increasing

concern” over the military possibility of Iran’s nuclear program • Iran denies this

• 2012• February, announced Iran’s refusal to allow access to the Parchin

plant, which was rumored to have high-explosive research program

• May, announced Iran was continuing to enrich uranium at a higher rate

• August, highlighted Iran’s continued increased enrichment

WHY IRAN SHOULD GET THE BOMB: A NEOREALIST POINT OF VIEW

• Kenneth Waltz, “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb:, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010

• Power Begs to be Balanced • Israel is the monopoly in nuclear power in the

region• Israel bombed Iraq in 1981, and Syria in 2007

to prevent them from acquiring a nuclear weapon, could do the same to Iran

• Since Israel acquired a nuclear weapon, the region has been in conflict

• Unfounded Fears • Iran is rational • Countries are less hostile once they get

nuclear capabilities (China, India and Pakistan)

BALANCE OF POWER DOES NOT APPLY

• The region would become less stable • Questionable if Iran would not attack Israel

• Not all nuclear programs promise peace (N. Korea)

• Would Iran give a weapon to a terrorist group? • Iran funds terrorist groups to spite the west and expand

power • Could be used as a threat

• Fails to evaluate Iranian-Syrian relations. • Syria would want the technology • Would Iran provide them the weapon ?

BALANCE OF POWER DOES NOT APPLY

• Waltz finds Iran to be rational• This is correct, even Israeli intelligence agree to this • Rational also curtail to ensure survival

BIBLIOGRAPHY

• Bruno, Greg. Irans Nuclear Program. March 10, 2010. http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-nuclear-program/p16811?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Dinterview%26referer%3Dwww.clickfind.com.au%26page%3D9 (accessed October 18, 2012).

• Conybear, John A.C, and Todd Sandler. "The Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance: A Collective Goods Approach ." American Political Science Review 84, no. 4 (1990): 1197-1206.

• Davenport, Kelsey. "History of Official Proposals on the Iranian Nuclear Issue." Arms Control Association . August 2012. http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Iran_Nuclear_Proposals (accessed October 30, 2012).

• Department of National Intelligence . "Special National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects of Further Profliferation of Nuclear Weapons ." George Washington University . April 1974 , 1974. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf (accessed October 21, 20012).

• Ferguson, Niall. The Pity of War Basic Books,. New York , NY : Basic Books , 2000.• IAEA . "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of

Iran ." IAEA . November 26, 2003.

BIBILOGRAPHY

• http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2003/gov2003-75.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012).

• —. "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran ." IAEA . September 24, 2005. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2005/gov2005-77.pdf (accessed October 29 , 2012).

• —. "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran." IAEA . November 15, 2004. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2004/gov2004-83.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012).

• —. "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran." IAEA. February 4, 2006. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2006/gov2006-14.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012).

• IAEA. "Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran." International Atomic Energy Agency . June 19, 2003. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2003/gov2003-40.pdf (accessed October 23, 2012).

• —. "THE TEXT OF THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN IRAN AND THE AGENCY FOR THE APPLICATION OF SAFEGUARDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATIO OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS." International Atomic Energy Agency . December 13, 1974.

• http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc214.pdf (accessed October 18, 2012).

• —. "TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS." International Atomic Energy Agency. April 22, 1970. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf (accessed October 18, 2012).

BIBLIOGRAPHY

• Jackson, Robert, and George Sorensen. Introduction to Internaitonal Relations: Theories & Approaches. Vol. 4th. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010.

• Kerr, Paul K. "Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status." Congressional Research Service . October 17, 2012. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34544.pdf (accessed October 29, 2012).

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POSSIBLE ECONOMIC, DIPLOMATIC SANCTIONS ." United Nations . July 31, 2006. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htm (accessed October 31 , 2012).

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• —. "SECURITY COUNCIL TOUGHENS SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN, ADDS ARMS EMBARGO, WITH UNANIMOUS ADOPTION OF RESOLUTION 1747 (2007) Further Steps Promised if No Compliance Reported by IAEA in 60 days; Iran’s Foreign Minister Says Pressure, Intimidation Will Not Change Poli." United Nations . March 24, 2007. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc8980.doc.htm (accessed October 30, 2012).

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get-the-bomb.•