JOHANNESBURG PUBLICITY ASSOCIATION

JOHANNESBURGSEPUBLISITEITSVERENIGING

J O H A N N E S B U R G

TODAY AND TOMORROW

Proceedingsof a Symposium held in

Johannesburg, February, 13 & 1̂ - 1968 organized jointly by

THE JOHANNESBURG PUBLICITY ASSOCIATION

and

THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT FOUNDATION OFSOUTH AFRICA

JOHANNESBURG 1968

FOREWORD

BY THE CHAIRMAN OF THE

JOHANNESBURG PUBLICITY ASSOCIATION INC.

COUNCILLOR P.M, ROOS

The members of the Johannesburg Publicity Association were delighted at the interest displayed by the many public bodies and individual people who participated in the symposium entitled "Johannesburg To-day and To-morrow" arranged recently by the Association.

The outstanding lectures presented during the symposium and now reproduced in this publication for the benefit of those people who did not have the opportunity of attending the symposium, indicated most forcefully the very important role that Johannesburg plays in the Republic of South Africa in the field of economy, commerce, industry, tourism, education, culture and sport, to mention but a few.

During the lectures great emphasis was laid on the importance of co-ordinated planning to prevent unnecessary duplication, overlapping and waste of effort, manpower and cost.

We wish to congratulate the NDMF on the efficient manner in which they organised and conducted the symposium and to thank them for their co-operation and assistance.

In conclusion we would commend the contents of this publication to your attention. You will find it full of brilliant and thought-provoking ideas which cannot but be of the greatest possible importance to the Johannesburg of To-morrow.

P.M. ROOS C H A I R M A N .

C O N T E N T S

I. INDUSTRIAL PLANNING FOR JOHANNESBURGIs there a future for labour? The "brain intensive" industries and automation. What happened to mining?

PROFESSOR S.J. KLEU, Professor of Commerce,Rand Afrikaans University, Member Board of Trade and Industries, Formerly Economic Editor, "Die Burger".

(i) Address(ii) Background Paper

(iii) Quotable Quotes(iv) Discussion on Address

II. JOHANNESBURG - MECCA FOR WORLD SPORTSMENThe world sports circuit. Are tours out-dated? Top names for top attendance. The economics of sport.

CHARLES FORTUNE, Organiser Sports Programmes,South African Broadcasting Corporation.

(i) Address(ii) Discussion on Address

III. JOHANNESBURG - THE CENTRE OF SOUTH AFRICAN ART AND CULTUREThe European tradition. The impact of Africa. Cross­fertilisation of cultures. Art and money.

DESMOND GREIG, Editor, Artlook.(i) Address

(ii) Background Paper(iii) Discussion on Address

IV. JOHANNESBURG - SOUTH AFRICA * S LINK WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLDThe world of jumbo-jets. What the tourist wants. Johannesburg as a world conference centre?

D .M . AGNEW, The President, Association of SouthAfrican Travel Agents; General Manager for South Africa, The American Express C o . Inc »

AddressBackground Paper Addendum to Background Paper Discussion on Address

(i)(ii)

(iii)(iv)

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V. SOCIAL LIFE AND ENTERTAINMENT IN JOHANNESBURGThe booming theatre. Music and opera. Modern cinema trends. Getting away from home cooking.

ROBERT LANGFORD, Chairman, South African Associationof Theatrical Management.

(i) Address(ii) Background paper

(iii) Discussion on AddressVI. JOHANNESBURG - THE EDUC ATIONAL CENTRE

Citizens to face the challenges of the future megalopolis. Keeping abreast of the knowledge explosion. Reversing the brain drain. Schools for citizens of Africa.

PROFESSOR GERRIT VILJOEN, Rector, Rand AfrikaansUniversity; Member, Suid-Afrikaanse Akademie, Chairman, Board of Trustees, State Library; Past Member, Council University of South Africa; Member, Joint Matriculation Board and Council, University College of Fort Hare.

(i) Address(ii) Background Notes

(iii) Background Reading(iv) Discussion on Address

VII. JOHANNESBURG - FINANCIAL CENTRE OF AFRICA?Capital formation. Being a good financial neighbour. Spreading the risk.

A „MARTIN, Vice-President, Johannesburg Stock Exchange,(i) Address

(ii) Background Reading(iii) Discussion on Address

n n , JOHANNESBURG - SHOPPING CENTRE OF SOUTH AFRICAThe market of the nation. Future trends in supplying consumer needs. Downtown emporia versus regional shopping centres.

JOHN R. PRICE, Vice-President, Finance, GreatermansStores Group; Past Vice-President, Association of Chambers of Commerce of South Africa; Past President,Durban Chamber of Commerce,

(i) Address(ii) Discussion on Address.

1 // e ® • e » * © o

IX. SUMMARY - THE FUTURE JOHANNESBURG

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The Future Johannesburg. The raw material for planning - by municipal officials and businessmen.

PROFESSOR E.W.Ni MALLOWS, Professor of and Head of theDepartment of Town and Regional Planning, University of the Witwatersrand.

JOHN Gc- MULLER, Lecturer in Town and RegionalPlanning.

(i) Address (ii) Address

(iii) Discussion on Address.

***

INDUSTRIAL PLANNING FOR JOHANNESBURG

by

PROFESSOR S.J. KLEU

Professor of Commerce,Rand Afrikaans University; Member Board of Trade and Industries; Formerly Economic Editor, "Die Burger",

***

INDUSTRIAL PLANNING FOR JOHANNESBURG.

by Prof. S.J. KLEU.

This symposium was convened at a very suitable time as, we at present, find ourselves in the final stage of the so-called golden age of Johannesburg. Since the discovery of gold on the Witwaters rand to that date when these gold deposits will, according to ex­pectations, be exhausted, one hundred years will have elapsed. And what miracles will have occurred in the course of this period! Probably the most significant of all is that here we are, towards the end of that century, talking of the industry in Johannesburg rather than the gold of Johannesburg.

In the old mining days most of the equipment for the mining indus­try was imported. The gradual replacement of these imports by local products, however, have hastened the development in South Africa. The vast and steady market which was set up by the gold mines, layed the foundation for the first industrial development in the Southern Transvaal. In this way food industries, maintenance industries and industries manufacturing a wide range of simple pro­ducts, came into being. Considerably later, more complex manufac­turing industries, such as the metal and machine industry, chemical industry and the clothing industry, were established.

The mining industry is not only the largest single industry sector in this country but also the largest earner of external currency.In the long run, its most significant function was in fact that it served as a catalytic agent for industrial development. It thus supplies a market for many industries whilst it also makes currency available for the import of machinery and raw material for present industries and the establishing of new ones.

According to estimates of the Chamber of Mines, on the assumption that the present price of gold is to remain the same and that mining expenses are to rise by 4% per year, the existing mines will be exhausted by 1990.

On the old Witwatersrand, i.e. from Nigel to Randfontein, produc­tion will probably come to a standstill in less than 10 years’ time (1977)

Does this mean that this large city of gold is doomed?What is its future without gold?

The closing down of gold mines on the Central Reef and elsewhere will not cause a depression. The decline of workers as well as the decrease in stock purchases on the Reef take place very gra­dually. It offers to most Reef towns the opportunity to adjust their economy by establishing new industries.

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In 1961 - 62 mining and quarrying in the Central Rand (Roodepoort, Johannesburg, Alberton, Germiston, Edenvale and Kempton Park) only contributed 2.3$ to the GNP. (Regional Income) of the PWV-region,In that year the figure for the East Rand was 4.3$ and the con­siderable high figure of 6.7$ for the West Rand. During I960 30$ and 70$ of the respective economically active Europeans and Bantu, were employed in gold mines on the West Rand. In Johannesburg these percentages have dropped to 2.55$ for Europeans and 9.5$ for the Bantu.

Johannesburg has in fact reached the stage where she is independent of gold as a direct means of income. The city, however, still bene­fits from the income which is set up by the mining industry in other parts of the Reef, Klerksdorp and the Free State. According to the latest available figures only 3$ of the Bantu in Johannesburg is accommodated by the mines,, The withdrawal of these workers, who mostly come from outside Johannesburg, would have a comparatively minor effect on the economy of the city.

In comparison with the earlier days of the mining industry, the pro­duction structure of the Reef has changed unrecognisably. The most significant contributions to the regional income on the Central Reef, are those made by industry and commerce, whilst mining is ra­pidly deteriorating. On the East Rand mining is still important though industry has almost, caught up with it. It is in fact only the West Rand where the mining industry is predominent and where industrial development has lagged behind.

It is well known to what extent the PWV-region (Pretoria-Witwaters- rand-Vereeniging) predominates in the South African economy. From 1955 to 1962 this region contributed an average of 38$ to the Gross Domestic Product of S.A. The colossal extent to which Johannesburg has grown, is indicated by the small area from Roodepoort to Kempton Park which now contributes an estimated V 5 of the total gross product of our country.

The industrial development in Southern Transvaal was exceptionally rapid in the first 30 years of industrialisation in South Africa.The number of industrial workers in Southern Transvaal has, from 1920 to 1950, increased by more than 5-2 times as against the 3.2 times in the rest of the country. The result was that Southern Transvaal by the time of 1950, did not have less than y of all the industries of the country.

The latest available figures indicate that, seen as a whole, the PWV-region is still well in the lead ahead of the country as a whole, though the rate of development in Johannesburg is not as rapid as it was. The total nett output of industry in the PWV- region, has since 1957 to 1964, increased by an average of 8.4$ per year in comparison with the 7.7$ for the Republic as a whole. The total industrial workers in the PWV-region has increased by an average of 4$ per year as against the 3.7$ in the Republic. The rapid rate in the PWV-region is, however, attributable to an excep­tionally rapid development in the East Rand, West Rand and in the Heidelberg and Nigel area. The total industrial workers in the Central Reef has increased by 3.6$, yet productivity was such that the nett industrial output was still increasing at a higher rate than in South Africa, viz. 8.1$ per year.

The slower rate in the increase of the total industrial workers is a reflection of basic population trends as well as the control exercised on the inflow of Bantu. When one reviews the period 1936- 1960, it is found that the aggregate annual increase in both the Euro­pean and Bantu population in the urban areas, is declining. From

/3 1951 - I960 ....

1951 - I960 the natural growth was responsible for 94$ of the European population increase in the PWV-region and for only 6$ mi­gration. Concerning the Bantu, natural growth only contributed 66$ to the population increase, whilst the nett migration to this area was not less than 16,000 persons per year. It was thus possible to restrain the increase in the Bantu population to a considerable extent by means of control regarding the inflow.While the European population in the PWV-region increased at a more rapid rate than in the rest of the country, available figures gave the impression that the Bantu population increased at a slower pace than elsewhere in the country.

As you are no doubt aware, the government is determined to limit the inflow of Bantu to Johannesburg. In the first place this is to relieve political and social tension. As an economist I can not express an opinion on this matter. Secondly, this control is directly involved with technical and economic problems created by the inflow with regard to the town planning of Johannesburg. These problems fall within the field of Housing and Transport.

On the Central Reef, it is already a problem to get enough land for the housing of Bantu workers. To accommodate the Bantu within a reasonable distance from his work, is a problem which is on the increase. Bantu Transport for long distances is an increasing expenditure. Already there are some Bantu who are transported to Johannesburg from a distance of 21 miles. Some Bantu from Soweto have to travel an estimated 17 miles to the city centre and some of them further still. Transport in this sense over a long dis­tance, results in a considerable loss of time and a reduction in the productivity of the Bantu.

The Railway's ability to transport the Bantu workers of Johannes­burg, will shortly be strained to their limits. When the Bantu of the Southern Bantu towns were rehoused in Soweto, the Railways provided in their projects for the transport of an additional 190,000 passengers. (This number was calculated in terms of the assumption that there will be 1.5 passengers per family of 5).This number was already reached last year. (1967). The original planned capacity of the rolling-stock and the signal-equipment for the handling of peak period traffic to Soweto, has almost been attained.

It is clear that important decisions should be reached in one or other area, so as to prevent a difficult situation. Early and thorough consultation with the Railways, the Johannesburg Municipality and the Government will eventually become necessary.

Losses sustained by the Railways with regard to transport of the Bantu in cities, are rapidly increasing. In 1964/5 the Railways suffered a loss of R7.6m. with regard to the transport of Bantu of which Soweto was liable for Rim. During 1965-66 the loss was R9.4m. and Soweto's contribution was R1.7m. The expectation is that the loss for 1967 would have risen to RIOm. - R2.4M. for Soweto alone. These enormous losses are to be compensated for by the Government in terms of subsidies.

Apart from these amounts for railway transport, subsidies are also to be paid to PUTC0. On the Reef, PUTCOannually transports more than 86,000,000 Bantu passengers per year. For a journey of 9 miles, they only pay 3c or approximately 30$ of the actual cost.The maximum tariff for transport which the Bantu pays for the distance between his work and the approved rehoused area, is R2.20 per month, regardless of the distance. Ladies and gentlemen, you should therefore note that you as taxpayers pay a great amount for the existance of the Bantu in your midst.

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/4 Considering ....

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Considering problems which are caused by the concentration of Bantu in the Johannesburg area, it is difficult to foresee that the Government will make available extensive new industrial land in Johannesburg, The Johannesburg Municipality, on the other hand, feels that with the present available land, the question of shortage of industrial land might arise in the municipal area. Johannesburg still has approximately 200 acres of land, but only part of this is available for industrial use. The municipality is of the opinion that, though they have to comply with the requirements of the Act of Physical Planning, there are four reasons why, in the view of Town Planning, additional land for industrial usage should be zoned.

Firstly, the zoning of additional industrial ground is necessary so as to establish buffers between European and non-European residen­tial areas. The municipality is of the opinion that such a buffer area is necessary between Soweto and the Southern suburbs. Not only do industrial areas need to serve the purpose of a buffer. In the case of Soweto there is, for example, a sewage farm. The proba­bilities for alternative buffers are, however, limited. While a workplace or area could serve as a buffer, a pleasure resort or recreation grounds could, instead of a buffer, become some point of contact.

The city planners, secondly, feel that they require buffers in those parts of Johannesburg which need renovating. For example, opposite Jeppe's railway station, there is an industrial area. The munici­pality wants to complete the industrialization of the area by re­moving the homes. The argument is that it will not be feasible to renovate homes situated in industrial areas but rather, to establish a buffer of these industries between the work-yards in Jeppe and new residential areas.

There are various places in Johannesburg that include misplaced industries when viewed from the angle of a pretty and clean city. Experience has taught us that slum areas are likely to originate in such old residential areas among factories. Such old factories have right of existence in terms of an old ordinance and they still have 15 years to go. It will not be an easy task to remove them all. The municipality claims that they need new industrial land which should be a proper zoned area for use of misplaced industries,

In the third place there are potential industrial areas on the grounds of extincted mines which are partially zoned for industries and partially not. The municipality still intends to zone some areas which are situated in between.

Fourthly, the municipality had to use 40 acres of its available land for the construction of highways. They, therefore, hope that the Department of Planning will grant them an additional 40 acres for the use of industry.

A survey by state authorities is now being carried out to inves­tigate how much land is still available on the Reef.

Viewed from the angle of orderly economic and social development in Johannesburg there is a strong case for the limitation of alotting new industrial land. At the same time, the authorities will have to consider some practical implications with regard to the city planning of Johannesburg. From discussions with various interested groups in Johannesburg, it becomes apparent to me that the possible issues are of a practical nature which can be solved by means of goodwill and common sense, rather than ideological questions. It strikes one that our knowledge with regard to the basic factors underlying the industrial planning of Johannesburg, is still in­adequate. An enormous task awaits the Government, Municipality, and

5

industry to do thorough research with regard to the needs that will be experienced in the fields of appropriate use of land, housing and transport. Above all, this is a matter which should be jointly discussed by the various interested groups. It can only be fatal, if every one has to make his own decisions.

We already referred to the varied considerations in connection with the using of land by the government and the municipality. There is therefore an urgent need for consultation and coordination of plans.

Regarding the housing of the Bantu there is some coordination be­tween the government and municipalities and mutually among muni­cipalities themselves. This, however, did not just originate by chance. This coordination came about because of the need to control in the inflow of Bantu. The local committees are liable for the housing of Bantu working in their areas. At the same time, the Bantu are not allowed to work in areas other than where they are registered for housing. Valuable coordination can be acquired in this way, amongst other things the elimination of cross trans­port. You thus see that inflow control is not only an ideologi­cal measure, but also a practical and useful means which contribu­tes to the smooth running of transport and efficient house planning within the framework of the present Bantu policy and is also acceptable to the majority of the population. These new measures with regard to the using of land and extension of industry, can also contribute very usefully to the coordination of plans.

Regarding transport, it is again interesting to note that the best coordination between the use of land and the providing of trans­port was obtained on a sector where the central government inter­vened on account of social and political reasons. I refer to the resettlement of the Bantu.

Concerning Johannesburg in general, there is not, as yet, adequate coordination between planning the use of land for housing, road construction and railway transport. If a rapid transit system, for example, were to be used to transport employees in their thou­sands to a large city such as Johannesburg, it would be essential that the use of land with regard to such a route, would be justified by volume of passengers. This creates an enormous planning task as considerable time is necessary for drawing up plans for their implimentation - routes for railway lines should be reserved 10,15, or even 20 years in advance.

Concerning bus services, there exists some degree of coordination by means of the committees for road transport who are in charge of the licensing of porters, including public transport services rendered by the municipalities. Coordination between bus ser­vices operates effectively as compared to that between bus services and the railways. However, there is as yet no coordination be­tween the national and provincial roads on the one hand and rail­way transport in urban areas on the other.

Credit should go to the Johannesburg Municipality for bringing together the activities of planning for urban transport, roads and land usage within the framework of one division, though this will not improve the present situation. Some knots can be cut by the Central Government. Most important is possibly the fi­nancial knot as illustrated by the transport of the Bantu. Johannesburg is spending the considerable amount of R60. on high­ways, but highways alone will not solve the city's transport pro­blems. Highways result in an increase in the flow of cars to the city which cause bigger traffic congestion and parking problems.An integrated system of highways and speedy transport from the ring roads to town will eventually become necessary, As proved

/6 the case

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the case abroad, the task cannot be coped with by the city alone. Financial aid and coordinated direction will be needed from the Government.

The considerable expenditure on highways for Johannesburg, similar to the cost of subsidizing Bantu transport, is a good example of the price the community has to pay for the excessive concentration of people and industries.

Another example is the supplying of water, the cost of which is further increased as a result of over-concentration.

The water demand on the Witwatersrand will be met until 1980 with supplies from the Yaal River. To ensure no shortages it is inten­ded that from 1975 water will be supplied to the Rand from resources other than the catchment-area of the Vaal River. The result will, however, be an increase in the price of water. Water from the catchment area of the Vaal River is less than 2c per gallon. Water outside this area will at least be 9c per gallon and probably even more. There are various possible ways which can be applied for supplementing water supplies to the Rand from elsewhere than the catchment-area of the Vaal River.

1. The first outside source is Lesotho where the Oxbow-project is being planned.

There is a considerable drop in the valley where the Oxbow- complex is situated. The evaporation here is nil because the air is constantly saturated with moisture owing to the height.

Quite a few dams can be built in the Oxbow-area — especially two, viz. the original Oxbow and another dam on the other side. These dams will supply 180m. gallons per day. (The normal demand for water by 1980 in the Vaal River area will be, according to estimates, approximately 1200m. gallons per day — of which only 1,160m. gallons will be supplied from the Vaal River). The water supply from Oxbow can be considerably increased by building other dams in adjoining valleys and constructing tunnels. This will have some effect on the water level in the Hendrik Verwoerd Dam, though not as much as may be expected because the bigger *percentage of water of this dam comes from other valleys in Lesotho and especially from the Transkei.

2. The second possible water source outside the catchment-area of the Vaal River, is the Tugela catchment-area. The cost of development will be somewhat similar to that of the Oxbow- project. The choice will most probably be made on the grounds of non-economic factors.

In the Tugela catchment-area, one can begin with the building of a dam just above Bergville and gradually descend to Colenso. If necessary one can still go further down, but then water will have to be pumped to Spioenkop Dam and from there across the Drakensberg.

The amount of water one can take away from the Tugela-catchment- basin depends on the extent of future needs of the catchment-basin.This again depends to what degree the S.A. Industry will be decen­tralised. The authorities thus have to decide whether they want to bring water from the Tugela in order to support a further indus­trial concentration on the Rand or whether they would rather encou­rage industrial development in an area where water is already available.

/7 There is

There is still another possibility, that is the building of a dam on the other side of the Tugela catchment-basin, between Volksrust and Newcastle, This will be cheaper than the Bergville-project and from there 80m. gallons will be pumped through to the catchment-area of the Vaal River without hampering future development possibilities in this area. Initially 150m. gallons, at least, will be pumped through from the Bergville-area, but thereafter this will depend on the development possibilities of this area.

According to estimates, the additional water sources from either Lesotho or the Tugela catchment-basin will, till late in the next century, fulfill the needs of the Rand but, as mentioned, this will only happen at a considerable high cost.

Thereafter, there are 5 possible ways by means of which water can be supplied to the Southern Transvaal:

1. Prof. Midgeley of the University of the Witwatersrand suggested that during periods of drought, water should not be supplied for irrigation,

2. Water from outside the Republic can be obtained for the Eastern Transvaal so that all the water from the Vaal River can be used for the Southern Transvaal.

On the West Rand there are large dolomite beds. There are three separate strata. The suggestion is that boreholes should be drilled in these so that in times of poor rain the water col­lected in these boreholes could be pumped out for use in Johannesburg and on the West Rand. During good years the sur­plus could be carried to the Vaal Dam. The advantage is that there would be no evaporation.

If these proposed plans are taken into consideration, it should be possible technically to prevent a water shortage on the Rand till late in the next century. The higher cost of water shall however, affect us in two ways:

1. It will compell us to save water, i.e. in gardens.

2. Attempts will probably be made to reduce the demand for water and to encourage the re-using of water for example, by means of a price policy.

5. At present re-used water is utilized to a small extent in in­dustry, for example, power-stations and the manufacture of paper, but in the main it goes to waste. Most diluted sewage just evaporises.

We have discussed some basic issues influencing the future of indus­try in Johannesburg, namely, the availability of land, water, housing, transport and naturally, most of all, the availability of labour. Regarding all these factors there are powerful forces which will direct the country to adopt a policy of greater industrial decentra­lization. Does this mean that Johannesburg is threatened by a serious decrease in its economic growth rate?

One should immediately note that a decrease in the rate of industrial expansion in Johannesburg or even the Rand, will not necessarily have a bad effect on the South African economy. We must aim at a certain growth rate in the S.A. economy as a whole. A slowing down of the expansion rate on the Rand will only be detrimental if this means that the general growth rate of the country will, as a result of this, be prejudiced. This is not necessarily the case because

8/ ..attractive ....

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attractive expansion probabilities do exist elsewhere, for example in those areas adjoining Pretoria, in the Tugela-valley, in various border areas. In the long run, this can be advantageous to South Africa and will encourage expansion in those areas where bigger industrialisation can take place without the economic and social tension experienced on the Reef,

Even viewed in terms of isolation, Johannesburg's economy means a relatively smaller contribution by the industry, but this does not necessarily imply economic deterioration for the city. The reason is that Johannesburg will in future be predominantly a commercial and financial centre rather than an industrial city.

When analyzing the regional income (Gross National Product) of the Central Reef, one observes that during the period 1954-55 to 1961-2 the various sectors with the exception of mining, contributed as follows: industry 32,7$, commerce 21,3$, private services 12.3$,general government services 7.6$, transport, storage and communi­cation 9.7$ and financial establishments 6.5$. Excluding govern­mental services, the result is that commerce, transport, private services and financial establishments make a contribution of almost 80$ in comparison with the 33$ of industry. Johannesburg's future development, should thus be viewed in terms of a commercial, finan­cial and service centre rather than in terms of industrial develop­ment o

The Central Reef has thus matured economically. It has progressed from a predominantly primary producer to a predominantly secondary producer and lately it has become a provider of services in the tertiary sector.

Discounting commerce, services and finance and only regarding indus­try, a restriction in Bantu labour does not essentially mean indus­trial stagnation for Johannesburg.

We have already mentioned that the nett industrial income of the Central Reef during 1957 - 64 had increased at a faster rate than in the rest of the country apart from the fact that industrial workers increased at a slower rate than in the rest of the country.It just shows what Johannesburg can do. It is reasonable to assume that better usage of available labour in future ‘could result in a further increase in productivity. In the first place the educatio­nal level of the urban Bantu is increasing rapidly which contributes to productivity. Secondly there is abundant scope in industry for the improvement of the selection, training and usage of Bantu labour It is probably appropriate that the National Institute of Personnel Research of the C.S.I.R. is established in Johannesburg. This in­stitute, in collaboration with particular enterprises, did excellent work regarding selection and similar problems in the field of mining which was rapidly followed by African countries beyond our borders In industry much of these things must still be done. Governmental establishments could help, although the task to make better use of Bantu labour is, in the first place, the responsibility of industria­lists themselves. Thirdly, industrial productivity can be increased by ensuring that the following generation of the urban Bantu is better socially adjusted. The Bantu are newcomers in this large city and in this respect their position can be compared to the immigrants, It is generally accepted that only after a few generations could immigrants feel well adjusted in their new environment. The same applies to the Bantu when in the course of the process of accli­matization. There is a considerable number of socially maladjusted, loafers and criminals. The limitation of the number of Bantu workers

/9 can intensify .„..,

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can intensify the pressure to direct such dissipated labour as soon as possible in productive channels.

Mechanisation may result in the possibility of making less use of Bantu labour. It should be remembered however, that the Bantu can­not be easily substituted by machines as is generally thought.Various problems may originate in the field of mechanisation. The most significant of these is the limitations of the South African market which causes problems in diseminating the fixed cost of machinery so as to include a sufficient number of product unities.

Johannesburg will have to expand its economic potential in future by the development of new industries which demand sophisticated thinking and limited simple labour to be done by the Bantu. It is usual to diffa^entiate between labour intensive industries, in which labour rather than capital plays a significantly important role and capital intensive industries in which the opposite applies. In our time, one should also distinguish a third industry, namely the intellect intensive industry. This includes consultants, firms of engineers who specialize in the design and development of products etc. In an economic mature region such as the Central Reef, these industries will, in future, constantly play an important part.The development of such industries should, on the one hand be in a good position with regard to a favourable demand — the market should be very good and -sophisticated executives should appreciate services rendered by the intellectual. On the other hand the supply of sufficient scientists, technologists and managerial experts for such industries should be insured by the establishment of a broad intellectual basis in Johannesburg^/ The good work being done by the University of the Witwatersrand in this respect is very promising for the industry of Johannesburg and the Rand Afrikaans University can also contribute in this regard. The fact that the number of students of the new university is beyond all expectations and that with the commencement already 200 students have enrolled for the Economic Sciences, is indicative of a demand for knowledge among the Afrikaners of the Rand. This too will provide Johannesburg's industrial devel­opment with a new driving force.

4o recapitulate, we can say that Johannesburg is not having to combat the problems of economic stagnation, but rather to deal with the question of rapid development and over concentration./' We have seen which factors give rise to the need to limit the inrfow of Bantu labour and finally we had second thoughts regarding the maintenance of healthy economic growth in spite of these limitations. Owing to its outstanding position, Johannesburg can either give our economy a boom or break it. You as the leaders of Johannesburg have, therefore this particular responsibility. It is possible that the peaceful development of Johannesburg and that of the whole country can be hindered if you are going to be divided amongst yourselves and with the government.

On the other hand you have the opportunity, by means of consultation with one another and by making use of this city's most efficient brainpower, to set a good example to the rest of the country, not only in the field of economic development but also with regard to our most difficult problem — the peaceful co-existence of races.The choice lies with you.

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BACKGROUND PAPER:

INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE JOHANNESBURG - WITWATERSRAND COMPLEX

by Prof, S.J» Kleu

PreambleAs a result of the rapid development of the mining, industrial and commercial sectors in the Transvaal, the P.W.V, (Pretoria Witwatersrand - V’ereeniging) area has grown to become the largest single industrial area in the Republic of South Africa During the period 195^/5 to 196l/2 this area yielded an average of 37«9$ towards the Gross Inland Product (this being the grand total of the income of all production factors regarded in terms of their share in the production of goods and services in a region or area) of the Republic, in addition to more than kO'fc towards the Gross Inland Product of the following production branches in the Republic. Mining and brick works, Manufacturing industry, Construction and electricity; gas and water, commerce, financial institutions and fixed property, general government services and private services.A large part of the economic strength of the Republic is therefore concentrated in the P.W.V. area.The following quotation indicates that the tendency towards concentration in the P,W„V0 will in the future also continue:

"When, therefore, in the Southern Transvaal and its surroundings are combined the greatest concentration of natural resources of all kinds and South Africa’s Major National Market, the future self-generating growth of this area is assured. At present the Pre tor ia. -Wi twa tersrand-Vereeniging area employs eight times as many industrial workers as the rest of the Orange-Vaal Basin. In general this trend seems likely to continue, for in 1920 the Southern Transvaal employed 30% of all South Africa’s industrial employees; in 1953 this figure had risen to and in 1 957 to k6$>(private industry only). Moreover it is well known that trends in countries more advanced economically than South Africa show a similar tendency towards regional concentration."

The expectation for the future is that this region will have problems in various fields Problems arise from the decrease in labour shortage and fabricated goods, the decrease in production by mines with the eventual closing-down of these. Other problems are the increase in demand for industrial land, housing, transport facilities, etc, all resulting from the lasting tendency for concentration of the population, industry commerce, etc., in the Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vereeniging area. In order to view these future problems in the right perspective, it is, therefore, essential to have all the necessary data with regard to m a n ’s activities in this area, at one’s disposal.

» e o a o « « o «

2 -

The Physical Planning Division of the Department of Planning thus resolved to undertake a series of studies concerning the P.tf.Vf-region, These studies will, inter alia, cover exploitation of ground, population, mining, particular economical aspects, industrialism and transport.The purpose of this paper is to sketch the required economic and manufacturing background for physical planning reasons in the P.¥.V, region.The extent of this reportAs previously mentioned, this P.W.V,-region is in many ways an important one for the Republic. Because of this, there can be no isolated approach to economic and other activities of the Republic's population. It will thus be endeavoured to describe activities in the P,¥,V,-region by means of the same activities in the Republic.For the purpose of these data, the concept G.N.P. equivalent of the G„D„P, (Gross Domestic Product) will be used - G.D.P. is the grand total of earnings of all production factors on account of their participation to the production of goods and services in a region or territory. In the event of a country, the concept G.N.P. is being used while the concept G.N.P, (Gross National Product) is applicable to a territory. This index is generally accepted as the most comprehensive single indicator of economic activity and is also known as regional income.In the event of industry, the proper indicator, inter alia, will be the net value and employment index.The industrial census for the years 1956/7, 1959/60 and 1 9 6 3 /̂ + are available in terms of a district basis and the total for the P.V.V.-region for these years is made up from these. The year 1 95 9/6 0, however, had in many instances proved to offer less work possibilities in industry than 1956/7. Three points are already too few to apply this as a foundation for future projects and where these three points fail to indicate some future tendency, the drafting of projections are entirely ruled out. Usage has thus been made of the "shifting technique which indicates changes at the beginning and the end of the year „This study will still further consist of: the Gross National Product of the P c W „ V - r e g i o n as compared with the G.D.P. of the Republic and an analysis of the G.N.P. of the sub-regions of the P .¥.V.-region; industry in the sub-regions of the P .W ,V ,-region as compared with the racial composition of industry in the various sub-regions of the P V . - r e g i o n and finally, conclusions are drawn.The Pretoria - ¥itwatersrand - Vereeniging RegionThe Pretoria - ¥itwa.tersrand - Vereeniging regions and sub- regions, for the purposes of this report, consist of the following districts (Figure l) and cover 6933 sq. miles, representing 105$ of the total surface of the Republic.Sub-region Pis trie tsNorthern Pretoria¥estern Krugersdorp, Randfontein, Oberholzer.Central

Eastern South Eastern Southern

Roodepoort, Germiston, Johannesburg, Kempton Park.Benoni, Boksburg, Brakpan, Springs. Heidelberg, Nigel.Vanderbijlpark, Vereeniging, Sasolburg.

3/.

3The smallest geographical unit for which statistical data is available, is the magisterial district - therefore, this region is build up by means of the aforementioned districts, which although strictly speaking, do not in all instances fall under the jurisdiction of the Pretoria—Witwatersrand—Vereeniging region. Since these areas which are mainly country areas fall outside the jurisdiction of this region, it will not affect the results of this study.The Gross National ProductA Comparison of the G.N.P, of the P.W.V, with the G.N.P, of the Republic. — ~All aspects of a country’s economy are, with the view to determining economic policy, consistently reassessed and are thus subject to close scrutiny, Where certain aspects of a region’s economy are being investigated, it is essential to regard this against the background of the present economic situation of the country - so as to obtain the right perspective. In this section the growth and development of the G.N.P, of the P.W.V.-area for the period 1954/5 to 196l/2 will be compared with the G.D.P. (G.N.P,) of the Republic.During this period the G.D.P, of the Republic, notwithstanding ruling prices, increased from R3,648 m. to R5,255 m. or at the rate of an aggregate of 5.4$ per year.The G.N.P, of the P ,W.V»-region however, increased from P I >405 m. to R 2 ,001 mo or at an average of 5 ,2$ per year.Thus the growth rate of the G.N.P, of the P.W.V. was somewhat slower compared to that of the Republic as a whole. This tendency can also be noticed in Figure II. Because of the high growth rate in the economy of the P.W.V.-region, a slower rate is expected for this area than the average rate for the country.

According to Table 1, the contribution of the P.W.V.-region to the G.D.P. of the Republic during the period discussed, varied from 3 8.5% to 37.2$ with an aggregate of 3 7 .9$. The PcW.V,-region, thus, contributes significantly to the G.D.P. of the Republic. It appears that there is some decline in the contribution of the P 0W.V.-region, but as a result of the short period of available data, this cannot be merely accepted,Table 1

THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE PWV-REGION TO THE G.D.P. OF THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA,

Years

— ---------- ---------- -— ---------------------------

jG.D.Pa of the Republic

I G.N.P, of the P.W.V,-region

Percentage contribu­tion of the P.W.V,- ! region to the G.D.P. I of the Republic

1954/5 3,648 1,405 38.5$1955/6 3,881 1,487 38.3$1956/7 4,203 1,567 37.3$1957/8 4,336 1,631 37,6$1958/9 4,452 1 ,7061959/60 1,7521960/1 4,944 1,84l 37,2$1961/2 5,255 2,001 38.1$Average 37.9$

4/* / $ ® o » ® c

4

The average contribution (1954/5 - 196l/2) which in each case contributes towards production branches of the P.W.V.- region to the G.D.P. of the corresponding production branch of the economy, are as follows:

Agriculture and forestry 4.8$Mining and quarries 46.0$Industry, construction andelectricity, gas and water 49»0$Transport, storing and communication 29.3$Commerce 43.4$Financial establishments and fixedproperty 53*3$Possession of homes 35»1$General government services 40,4$Private services 40.1$Total G.N.P, 37.9$

The PoW.V.-region only accounts for agriculture, forestry and transport, storing and communication, an average of less than 1/3 towards the G.D.P. of the individual production sectors of the economy of the Republic. In the case of financial establishments and fixed property the P .¥cV .-region contributes even more than 50$ (53»3$) to the G.D.P. of the Republic.According to Table 2, the production structure of the G.N.P, differs from that of the P.V.V.-region only slightly from the production structure of the Republic.Table 2PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE G.D.P. OF THE REPUBLIC AND OF THE P.W.V.-REGION FOR 1954/5 and 196l/62

Production Sector 1 9 5 V 5 5 1 9 6 1 / 6 2

Republic P.W.V. Republic PlW.V.1. Agriculture, Forestry

and fisheries 14.9 1.8 12.3 1.22. Mining and quarries 11.6 l6.2 13.6 14.83. Industries4. Construction 24.3 3 1 . 2 24,4 31.75. Electricity, gas

and water ■ •

6. Transport, storing and communication 9.8 7.8 9.9 7.2

7. Commerce 14.7 1 6 . 5 13 .0 1 6 , 6

8, Financial establish­ments and fixed property 3.2 4.4 3.7 5.2

9. Possession of homes 3.3 3.2 4.1 3.110. General Government

Services 8.5 9.0! 9.7 9.911. Private services 9.7 9.9 9.3 10,3

Total G.N.P. $r (m )

1 0 0 . 03648

1 0 0 . 01405

1 0 0 . 05255

1 0 0 . 02001

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5The most important differences in structure in G.N.P, between the P.W.V,-region and the Republic for the period 1954/5 to 196l/2 , are attributable to the following:Agriculture, forestry and fisheries, which in the case of the Republic for the years mentioned, respectively attributed 14.9$ and 12,3% to the G.D.P. and in the case of the P.W.V.- region attributed only 1 .8$ and 1 ,2$ for these years respectively; industries, etc. which in the case of the Republic amounted to 3 1 .2$ and 3 1 .7$ respectively for those years already mentioned and 24,3$ and 24,4$ in the case of the P.W.V.- region. Although there is a difference of approximately 7$ in the contribution of this section to the G.N.P. of the Republic and the P «W .V ,-region, the percentage contribution, in every case, has not changed much in the course of the 8 year period. Some indication, as will be seen later, is that this sector in the Republic and the P.W.V,-region, approximately, are developing at the same rate; transport, storing and communication, which in the case of the Republic amounted to 9.8$ and 9.9$ and in the case of the P.W.V,-region 7-8$ and 7.2$ for 1954/5 and 1 9 6 1 / 2 respectively, In case of the Republic there was a slight increase in the percentage contribution while in case of the P.W.V,-region there was a slight decrease; the percentage contribution of mining in case of the Republic increased from 11.6$ to 1 3 .6$ of 1954/5 to 1961/2 while in case of the P„WSV„-region, there was a slight decrease in the percentage contribution of 16,2$ to l4.8$ 0 In case of the Republic the contribution with regard to mining to the G.D.P. thus increased, while the percentage contribution to the G.D.P, of the country dropped from 14,7$ (1954/5) to 13.0$ (l96l/2 ) and remained steady at approximately 1 6 .5$ in case of the P .W.V.-region,

The above differences in the distribution of percentages of the G.D.P, of the Republic and the P.W.V,, indicate that the sectors in the P .W.V.-region differ to some extent from sectors of the Republic with regard to its tempo of growth. The resulting deviations (which are mainly the cause of difference in the growth rate), can best be illustrated by means of the "transfer technique" of Perloff, This technique is now applied to the G.N.P. of the P.W.V,-region,The G.D.P. of the Republic has increased by 44.05$ during the period 1954/5 to 196l/2. If it is assumed that the G.D.P. of the P.W.V.-region increased with by same figure, it would have increased by R6l8,9 m. The actual increase, in the case of G.N.P. was in fact R595.8 m.

Thus the total net declining figure in G.N.P. was R23.1 m (R618.9 m), which implies that the G.N.P. of the P ,W.V,-region, during the abovementioned period, increased at a reduced rate of R23.1 m, as seen in the light of the growth rate of the Republic. The net downward and upward displacement of each production sector is fixed in the same way.The net displacement (upward or downward) consists of two components, viz. a nett differential displacement and a net proportional displacement. It is described as follows:

The net differential displacement in growth components occur when certain regions grow at a faster rate than others with regard to some sectors (or sub-divisions of sectors) these regions which indicate nett upward differential displacements, are regions where the availa­bility of basic administrations and the accessibility to markets improved relatively with regard to the concerned activities in other regions. As a result of greater location advantages with regard to the considered activities, they thus won the battle.

e ® • e t « e

Proportional displacements arise from the fact that some of the sectors (or sub-divisions thereof) have country-wid increased at a faster rate than others. The result is tha some regions which specialize in slow growing area pro­duction indicate a fall in proportional displacements and vice versa.

If development can proceed undisturbed without outside influences, it can be expected that: industry and financial establishments in the P.Ï.V.-region, will to some extent grow at a faster rate than in the case of the Republic; commerce and private services in the P .¥.V,-region will increase considerably than in the case of the Republic; agriculture and general government services in the P V . - r e g i o n will increase somewhat slower than in the Republic; transport and possession of homes will, to some extent, grow slower than in the rest of the Republic and mining will increase at a much slower rate in the P»¥,V,-region, than in the case of the Republic.The G.N.P, of the sub-regions of the P ,¥,V ,-regionThe P „¥.V.-region for the purpose of this study, consists of 17 districts which are divided into 6 sub-regions, as already mentioned. It is well known that the activities of the various sectors are not proportionally scattered in these districts, therefore, an additional analysis of the G.N.P, of the sub-regions of the P .¥.V .-region, is being made.As will be noted from the following, all the sub-regions of the P.¥,V.-region indicate an increase in their G.N.P.

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Table 4THE G.N.P. OF THE SUB-REGIONS OF THE P . ¥. V - R E G I ON 1954/5 AND _______________________________1961/2__________________________ ________

Sub-regions Years Increase in Perc entage

1 9 5 V 5Rm $1 9 6 1 / 2

Rm $ $Northern 2 1 6 . 5 15.4 300.4 1 5 . 0 38 . 8¥es tern 103.5 7,4 194.3 9.7 87.7Central 754.6 53.7 IO6 3 .8 53 0 2 4i.oEastern 193.6 1 3 . 8 249.1 12.4 28,7South-Eas tern 3 2 . 6 2 , 3 45.2 2.3 38.7Southern 104.4 7.4 148.1 7.4 41.9

GNP OF P¥V-REGION 1 405 .2 1 0 0 . 0 2000.9 1 00 , 0 42.4The sub-regions are subsequently discussed in order of their importance.The Central sub-region's G.N.P, had, during the period under discussion, increased from R 7 54.6 m to RIO6 3 . 8 m or by 4l.0$. This increase in percentage is somewhat less than the percentage increase of 42.4$ in the case of the P.¥.V,- region as a whole. The growth in the G.N.P. of this sub- region is very similar to the increase in the G.N.P. of the P .¥.V.-region, which is understandable when it is also considered that the Central sub-region contributes approximately 53$ of the G.N.P. of the P .¥.V .-region. This sub-region is by

® e 0 a • o 0

Q) -P

7

far the most important in this instance and will also remain so for the future.

The GNP of the Northern sub-region increased from R216.5 m to R300.4 m or by 3 8.8$. This percentage increase is considera­bly lower than the increase for the P .W .V .-region as a whole.This sub-region which contributes more or less 15$ of the GNP of the P,W.V.-region, is thus developing at a somewhat slower rate than the P „W „V.-region and according to abovementioned data, this situation is to remain like this for the future.The GNP of the Eastern sub-region increased from R193.6 m to R249.1 m or by 28.7$ in contrast with the 42.4$ for the P.W.V, as a whole. The GNP of this sub-region, in other words, increased considerably slower than the GNP of the P W .V .-region.A marked decrease in the contribution of this sub-region to the GNP of the P.W.V.-region from 13c8$ to 12.4$, also occurred.It is thus expected that the GNP of this sub-region will in future still decrease further with regard to the importance of the GNP in the P .W.V.-region.The contribution to the GNP of the Western sub-region to the GNP of the P„W.V.-region increased from 7.4$ to 9.7$. This increase was caused by an increase in the GNP of RIO3 . 5 m to R194.3 m, i „e „, 87.7$o This percentage increase is twice as high for the P .W „V .-region as a whole. All indications are that this sub-region is already developing faster than the P .W .V.-region and that it will, in future even play a more important part than was the case in 1 9 6 1/2 .During 195^/5 the GNP of the Southern sub-region was almost similar to the GNP of the Western sub-region, i.e. R104.4 m.Though in this instance, the GNP increased to R148.1 m or by 41.9$; the contribution of this region to the GNP of the PWV- region remained 7.4$. This region's GNP increases at a rate just lower than that of the GNP of the P «W .V .-region and should thus maintain its relative position.The GNP of the South-eastern sub-region increased from R 3 2 . 6 m to R45.2 m or by 38.7$ during the period under discussion. Though the percentage increase in the case of this sub-region, is considerably lower than in the case of the P,W.V.-region. This sub-region maintained its relative position at 2 .3$ of the GNP of the PoW.V.-region.Subsequently an analysis of the production structure of the sub- regions of the P.W.V.-region is given in order to-follow on the abovementioned differences.Referring to Table 5j it is clear that there is a mutual difference in the production structure of the sub-regions as well as the P.W.V.-region, The most significant contribution to the GNP in the respective sub-regions are made by: general government services and industry in the case of the Northern sub- region; mining in the case of the Western sub-region; industry and commerce in the case of the Central sub-region; mining and industry in the case of the Eastern sub-region; agriculture and mining in the case of the South-Eastern sub-region and industry in the case of the Southern sub-region. When compared to other sectors only industry contributes more significantly to the GNP in the case of the P.W.V.-region, whereas mining, commerce, private services and general government services also make important contributions,The abovementioned indicates the relative importance of the various sectors in the economy of the individual sub-regions

in the P,¥»V,-region» It is however also important to gain an impression of the significance of some particular sector in a particular sub-region in relation with the GNP of the P .W .V 0-region as a whole. It is for this purpose, that Table 6 was drawn up,TABLE 5PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION (AVERAGE 1954/5 - 196l/2) OF THE SUB-REGIONS OF THE P . W . V . IN ACCORDANCE WITH PRODUCTION SECTORS0

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SUB- REGIONS

PRODUCTION BRANCH Nort

hern

West

ern

Cent

ral

Ea s t

ern

Sout

h-

Ea s te

rn

Sout

hern

9>«

•A1. Agriculture &

Forestry 1 . 1 3.0 . 7 1 . 6 19 . 7 3.7 1.72. Mining and

quarries .4 65 0 3 5.6 39 06 44,4 3.6 1 5 .0

3. Industry, Con­struction, etc. 24,9 8.4 32,7 30.8 9.6 70,4 31 ,6

4, Transport,Storing & Commu­nication . 11.3 2.2 9.7 1 , 8 2,5 1 .8 7.5

5. Commerce. 1 3.6 6.8 21.3 8.6 5.9 6.7 1 5 . 8

6. Financial esta­blishments, etc. 6 . 6 1 . 6 6.5 1.5 1 . 8 1 . 8 5 = 0

7. Possession of Homes , 3 . 7 2,3 3.6 3.0 2.3 2.1 3 = 3

8» GeneralGovernment Services . 26.4 4,0 7.6 6.9 7.7 4.1 9 = 8

9. PrivateServices 12,0 6.5 12.3 6,2 6.1 5 0 9 10.3

TOTAL GNP 100.0 100,0 100,0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100,0

According to Table 6 , 70$ of the contribution to the GNP of theP ,W,V,-region during 1 9 6 1 / 2 was made by:Industry in the Central sub-region....................... 17.7$Commerce in the Central sub-region........ . 1 2 .0$Mining in the Western sub-region ........................ 6,7$Private services in the Central sub-region ........... 6 ,6$Industry in the Southern sub-region ..................... 5.1$Transport in the Central sub-region .................... . 4.9$Industry in the Eastern s u b - r e g i o n ................. . 4.4$Mining in the Eastern s u b - r e g i o n ....................... . 4.3$General government services in the Northern sub-region. 4.2$ General government services in the Central sub-region.. 4.1$

9/

92 7.2$ of this 70$ is contributed by industry in three sub- regions, 1 2 ,0$ by commerce in one sub-region and 1 1 .0$ by mining in two sub-regions.The Central sub-region contributes, as previously indicated, most significantly in regard to the GNP to the total of the P,¥,V,-region, while industry, commerce and mining jointly comprise the most important sectors.Though the period for which we have available data, is relatively short, it seems as though some changes in the percentage contribution of the various sectors occur in the GNP of the individual sub-regions. This information is indicated in Annex.2 and only the general trend is being discussed here.In the Northern sub-region the significance of industry is slowly decreasing, whereas the importance of general government servicesis steadily increasing; the Western sub-region is experiencing an increase in the significance of mining, in the Central sub-region the importance ‘of mining is however rapidly decreasing while the importance of industry is increasing slowly; in the Eastern sub-region mining on the one hand is decreasing with regard to its importance, whilst the significance of industry on the other hand, is rapidly increasing; in the South-eastern sub-region the importance of agriculture and mining shows a marked decline, whereas the significance of industry, commerce and general government services increased; and in the GNP of the Southern sub-region a slight increase in mining and a decrease in commerce, were observed.It should however be stressed that, as a result of the short period during which information has been available, the aforementioned tendencies, in this case, should not be regarded as structural changes.TABLE 6PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION PER REGION PER SECTOR TO THE TOTAL GNP OF THE P.W.V. 196l/2________________________________________

-------- — -’- Iv *

SUB-REGIONS

PRODUCTIONSECTOR

Nort

hern

We s t

ern

Cent

ral

East

ern

Sout

h-Ea

ster

n

Sout

hern

Prod

uc ti

on

as a

per

­ce

ntag

e of

P.

W.V.

- t Q t.q 1_

_____

------------------------------------------1, Agriculture & forestry» 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 1 0.3 0.3 1 . 2

2, Mining & quarries 0 . 1 6 . 7 2.3 4.3 1 . 0 0.4 H -P-

• 00

3, Industry, Con­struction, etc. 3.4 0.7 17.7 4.4 0.3 5.1 3 1 . 6

b, Transport, Storing & Communication 1 . 6 0 . 2 4.9 0.3 0 . 1 0 . 1 7.2

p, Commerce 2 . 2 0 . 6 1 2 . 0 1 . 2 0 . 2 0.4 1 6 . 6

6. Financial esta­blishments, etc. 1 . 1 0 . 2 3.5 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 5.2

[?. Possession of Homes 0 . 6 0 . 2 1 . 8 0.3 0 . 1 0 . 1 3 . 1

8. General govern­ment services 4.2 0.4 4.1 0 . 8 0 . 2 0.3 1 0 . 0

9. Private Service 1 . 8 0.5 6 , 6 0 . 8 0 . 1 0.5 1 0 . 3

GNP as $ of GNP of P,¥,V,

---------------------------- ---------------

15.0 9.7 53.2 12.4 2.3 7.4 1 0 0 . 0

10/

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Industry;A comparison of industry in the P.U.V,-region with that of the Republic « ___________________ ___________ ______________ ________ ___Since 1954/5 to 196l/2 the GDP of industry, construction and electricity, gas and water in the Republic increased from R888 m or at an average of 5°40$ per year and in the P.W.V.- region from R438 m or at an average of 5 »42$ per year. The contribution of this main group to the GDP of the Republic and the GNP of the P.W,V„-region, had respectively increased from 24.3$ to 24.4$ and 31.2$ to 3d »7$ (see table 2). Relative to other sectors this sector has somewhat increased in significance - more so in the P .W.V.-region than in the rest of the Republic.By means of the displacement technique, it was shown in the previous chapter how the GNP of this sector increased by R1.4 m in the P.W.V,-region, than would have been the case if the growth rate of the Republic was applied in the P .W .V .-region.This sector is thus developing at a somewhat faster rate in the P .W.V.-region, as compared with the Republic. This main group should in future retain its significance with regard to the GDP of both the Republic and the P.W.V,-region.The attention in this chapter is further drawn only to industry, and construction, electricity, gas and water are thus disregarded. (Data for 1963/4 with regard to the aforementioned activities are also not yet available).According to Table 7 the total net output of industry from 1956/7 to 1963/4 in the Republic increased at an average of 7.7$ per year and in the P,¥,V,-region at an average rate oi 8.4$ per year. Table 8 indicates however that working possibilities in the Republic have increased at an average of 3.7$ per year and in the P „W ,V-region at a rate of 4.0$ per year. It appears in Table 9» that during 1956/7, the P,V,V,-region contributed 47«7$ to the net output of industry in the Republic and during 1963/4, this rate was 49.8/0. In the case of working opportunities, in the Republic according to table 10, the P.W.V.-region has contributed for the years 1 95 6 / 7 and 1963/4 the respective percentages of 45.3$ and + 6 .3 >̂.According to the abovementioned information, the net output as well as working opportunities in industry in the P.W.V,- region accumulated at a faster rate than for the rest of the Republic. The percentage contribution of the P.W.V.-region to the net output and working opportunities in industry in the Republic also increased. The P .W 0V.-region in the Republic had therefore, in this instance, grown in significance.The results of tables 11 and 12 further indicate a more rapid increase in the rate of net output and working oppor­tunities in the P.W.V.-region than in the Republic as a whole.

11/.

TABLE 7ANNUAL AVERAGE INCREASE IN THE NET OUTPUT OF INDUSTRY IN THE P,.¥„V, -REGION AND THE REPUBLIC

R i ,OOO

MAIN GROUP [ P.W.V.-I1 9 5 6 / 7

-REGION1963/4 %

REPUBLIC1956/7 1963/4 %

1. Food | 28360 45283 6 0 9 129558 205992 6.9i2c Liquor 59^9 14009 1 3 »0 25678 45521 8 .53. Tobacco 5038 IO9OO 110 7 1 5 1 2 0 21085 4.94, Textiles 8857 l401 5 6 0 8 41714 81 218 1 0 . 0

5» Clothing, etc. 3^697 42329 2.9 88692 1 2 5 1 1 Ó 5.16, Timber and timber pro­

ducts 7351 9202 3 • 3 23406 34112 5 . 5

7« Furniture 15520 22328 5 .4 24982 34818 4.91 8, Paper and paper

produc ts 1 1 2 li5 22152 1 0 . 2 34480 67227 1 0 . 0

[ 9» Printers and publishers I8O38 3OI58 7 o 6 43556 68446 6.7

10, Leather and leather produc ts 1820 2398 4.0 5752 8376 5.5

11, Rubber products 3838 7023 9.0 31858 42580 4.212. Chemicals and chemical

products 35511 77850 11.9 83560 152703 9.013e Petroleum and coal

produc ts 12139 27442 12.4 21762 4i4i2 9 0 614, Non-ferrous metals

mineral products 31995 47413 5 0 8 61252 104510 7.915. Basic metal industry 80966 136987 7.8 85470 150880 8.416, Metal products 65514 119015 8.9 96899 168433 8.217. Machinery 40868 83878 10,8 46232 95820 11.018, Electrical machinery,

etc , 27433 45531 7.5 39449 60037 6.219. Transport equipment 16740 33036 10.2 56290 87273 6 . 5

20, Diverse industries 13171 24624 9.3 18228 41188 -3“eCMH

To tai---- -----------— — ---- -— --- 465050 815573 8.4 973938 1636747 7.7

12/

12

ANNUAL AVERAGE INCREASE IN THE WORKING OPPORTUNITIES IN INDUSTRY IN THE P .W „V .-REGION AND THE REPUBLIC

TABLE 8

MAIN GROUP ! P.W.V.-1956/7

-REGION1963/4 $

REPUBLIC 1956/7 1963/4 *

1. Food 21078 23223..■

1.4 100572 106061 0 , 82. Liquor 3590 4807 4 . 3 14312 16388 2 . 0

3> Tobacco 2099 1900 -1.4 6666 4074 -6 . 8

Textiles 8836 9478 l.l 37183 56186 6 , 1

1 5. Clothing, etc» 29299 33225 1 . 8 78432 99468 3.56» Timber and timber

products 7971 7755 -0.4 32087 38755 2.77. Furniture 10905 13083 2 . 6 I856O 21320 2 , 0

1 8» Paper and paper products 6665 8898 4.2 16906 24994 5.7

9. Printers and publishers 7593 1 0 1 7 1 ^.3 19892 24880 3.3

10. Leather and leather produc ts 1553 1 7 8 1 2 . 0 501 1 5605 1 . 6

11, Rubber products 2487 4212 -3 « 00 11598 14502 3 . 2

12, Chemicals andchemical products 17081 24158 5.1 41024 47796 2 . 2

13. Petroleum and coal products 4318 6030 4.9 7150 9798 4 0 6j

14. Non-Ferrous metals mineral products 31081 34013 1.3 60661 69023 1.9

15. Basic metal industry 32941 46197 5.0 36341 54151 5 . 9

l6, Metal products 44573 65521 5.7 65930 94207 5.217» Machinery 23064 37353 7.1 27229 44941 7 0 418, Electrical machinery,

e tc , 16698 23214 00•-3* 24565 29613 2.7

19. Transport equipment 12335 17331 5.0 28591 45910 7.020. Diverse industries 7456 11449 6.3 11738 21354 0

03 V

D

Total working oppor­tunities : 291623 383799 4.0 644448 829026 3.7

• ® » © ® o e * e

13

TABLE 9THE NET OUTPUT OF THE P„W*V„-REGION AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE NET OUTPUT OF THE REPUBLIC (l936/7 AND 1 9 6 3 / 4 ) __________

MAIN GROUP YEARS1956/7 1963/4

1. Food 21.9 2 2 . 02. Liquor 23.1 3 0 . 83. Tobacco 33.3 510 74 0 Textiles 2 1 . 2 17 0 35. Clothing, etc» 39.1 0

0COCO

6 , Timber and timber products 31.4 27 0 07. Furniture 6 2 ol 64.180 Paper and paper products 32 0 6 32.99» Printers and publishers 4l.6 28 „610» Leather and leather products 3 1 . 6 28.611. Rubber products 1 2 . 1 1 6 . 512» Chemicals and chemical products 42.5 5 1 . 013» Petroleum and coal products UT Vjl a 0

0 66 0 3l40 Non-ferrous metals mineral products 5 2 . 2 45.415. Basic metal industry 94.7 9 0 . 8l6 . Metal products 6 7 . 6 7 0 . 7 !17« Machinery 88.4 100r-0

0

18. Electrical machinery 69.5 000r-

19. Transport equipment 29.7 37.920« Diverse industries 72.3 59.8

Total net output 47.7 49.8 I

The following industries contribute more to the net output of industry in the P V .-region than in the case of the Republic: the basic metal industry contributes an estimated 17% compared with the 9% in the Republic; metal products in the P ,W.V.-region, contribute an approximate 14% as against the 10% in the Republic and machinery roughly 9y% in comparison with the 5% contribution in the Republic. The changes during the period 1956/7 to 1963/4 which occurred in the net output and working opportunities of the various industrial fields, will subsequently, in view of information in the foregoing tables, be discussed in detail.

14/...» « • c •

- 14

INCREASE IN NET OUTPUT AND WORKING OPPORTUNITIES OF THE SUB- REGIONS OF THE P , W . V , -REGION 1956/7 1963/4________________ _

TABLE 10

SUB-REGIONS NET OUTPUT (R1,000) WORKING OPPORTUNITY(NUMBER)

1956/7 1963/4Tempo

ingrowth 1956/7 1963/4Tempo j

ingrowth [

NorthernWesternCentralEasternSouth-EasternSouthern

47,946 1 0 , 2 7 6

2 6 1 , 8 5 5 61,999

2 , 3 1 8 8 0, 656

78,290 22,441

450, 810 119,994

8,460 135,578

#7.3

1 1 . 8 8 „ 19.9

2 0 , 37.7

28, 683 3,785

175,765 43,548 1,868

34,374

36,77212,096

225,42559,5894,290

45,677

%3.6 1 8 , 13.64.6

12,64.2Tota 1 465,050 815,573 8 „ 4 2 9 1 , 6 2 3 383,799 4.0

As far as the net output is concerned, the Western, Eastern and South-Eastern sub-regions maintained a higher growth rate than the P , W V ,-region as a whole», The Northern and Central sub-regions maintained the most lingering rate of all.According to table 11, the importance of the sub-regions have changed as follows during the period under discussion.Table 11THE PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION OF THE VARIOUS SUB-REGIONS TO THE NET OUTPUT AND WORKING OPPORTUNITY OF THE P .W .V ,-REGION 1956/7 AND 1963/4___________________ _________ ____________________

SUB-REGIONSNET OUTPUT 1956/7 1963/4

WORKING OPPORTUNITY 1956/7 1963/4

Northern 1 0 . 3 9,6 9,9 9,6We s tern 2,2 2,8 2.5 3,2Central 56.4 55.3 60,3 58,7Eastern 13.3 14.7 14.9 15 0 5South-Eastern 0, 5 1 .0 0.6 1 .1Southern 17.3 1 6 . 6 1 1 , 8 11.9

Total 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 , 0 1 00 . 0 1 0 0 . 0

From the percentage contributed by each sub-region to the net output and working opportunity in the P ,W ,V,-region, the following can be concluded:

(i) the Central sub-region makes the most significant contribution, but this is however diminishing;

(ii) concerning net output the Southern sub-region is the second largest contributor, However, this contri­bution is decreasing, whereas the contribution with regard to working opportunity, is increasing,

(iii) the Eastern sub-region is the third most importantcontributor and its contribution is still expanding;

(iv) the Northern sub-region is the fourth most important contributor but this contribution is diminishing;

15/

- 15(v) The contributions of both the Western and South-

Eastern sub-regions are slowly increasing.CENTRAL SUB-REGION

1956/7 1 9 6 3 ANet Working Net Working

Output Opportunity~ T ~

Output Opportuni% % ~ T ~

Clothing, etc. 1 2 . 8 1 6 . 0 8.5 1 3 , 4

Metal products 1 2 , 5 13»3 1 5 . 0 1 7 . 2

Chemicals andchemical products 1 1 . 8 8,7 H CJ • 00 8 . 7

Machinery 8.9 7.8 9,6 8 . 3

Food 6 , 8 7.7 6 ® 1 6.452, 8 53,5 5 3 , 0 54.0

The five most important main groups only contribute 50$ of the net output and working opportunity of industry in this sub-region. Since 1956/7 to 1963/4, the contributions of these main groups were only slightly increasing. The only marked changes are the decline in significance of the clothing industry and the increasing importance of metal products, chemicals and chemical product industries.RACIAL COMPILATION OF WORK OPPORTUNITY IN THE P ,W .V .-REGION

1956/7Number $

1963/4Number $

Europeans Bantu Coloureds Asiatic s

94,451 189,295 14,164 1,959

3 1 , 56 3 , 14.70 . 7

121,088 240,345

1 9 , 3 6 6 2,995

3 1 , 6 62 «6 5.0 0.8

299, 869 100.0 383,794 100.0

The percentage of the total represented by the Bantu indicates a slight decline in favour of the other racial groups. The percentage increase in work opportunity in the various sub- regions are as follows: Northern sub-region 22.4$, Western sub-region 5 8,6$, Central sub-region 24.1$, Eastern sub- region 34.7$, South-eastern sub-region 126.5$ and Southern sub-region 3 2 .3$«Whereas the percentage contribution of the sub-regions of the P f, W, V,-region with regard to work opportunity, were asfollows:

Central sub-region Eastern sub-region Southern sub-region Northern sub-region Western sub-region South-eastern sub-region

1956/7 1963/4$

6 0, 6 5 8. 814.8 15.511.5 11.91 0 , 0 9.62.5 3.1

.6 1 , 1

lé/...».««.

- 1 6

The percentage contribution of the Central and Northern sub-regions decreased in favour of the other sub-regions»The Central sub-region, however, still contributes more than 50$ to work opportunity in the P,W.V.-region. The Central and Northern sub-regions have also indicated the smallest increase in percentage concerning work opportunity.Southern sub-regionWork opportunity in this sub-region increased from 34537 persons to 45677 persons or by 32,3 $ . Work opportunity for Europeans increased by 4l,9$, for the Bantu by 26.3$s Coloureds by 3 6 .8$ - though for Asiatics there was a decline of 28e6$. Work opportunity for Europeans in this sub-region indicated the largest increase. The racial compilation changed as follows:

1936/7 1963/41° $

Europeans 3 8 , 0 40,8Bantu 61.7 58,9Coloureds 0 . 2 0 , 2Asiatics 0 . 1 0 . 1

Total 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0

The contribution made by Europeans in this sub-region with regard to total work opportunity, is higher than in all the other sub-regions and the P «W .V ,-region as a whole,Conclusions:Since 1954/5 to 1961/2, the GNP of the P.W.V,-region has increased by 5 ,2$ per year as against the 5.4$ in the case of the Republic, As a whole, it can be concluded that the economy of the P.W.V.-region has increased at a slower rate, as compared with the Republic, The P .W .V .-region contributed between 38,5$ and 37.2$ to the GDP of the Republic, which means that this region is a significant contributor to the economy of the Republic, Regarding individual sectors the P.WcV.-region contributes even less than a third, on areas such as agriculture and forestry and transport storing and communication, to the GDP of each of these sectors in the Republic, In the case of other sectors, the P .W,V.-region contributes, as a rule, considerably more to the GDP of these sectors in the Republic.From 1954/5 to 196l/2 the GNP of the P .W ,V .-region increased at a slower rate than the rate of GDP of the Republic would have permit„ Arising from this analysis, it seems as though future development will follow this pattern:

Manufacturing industry and financial institutions in the P,W„V,-region will develop faster to a lesser degree than is the case for the whole of the Republic.Commerce and private services in the P ,W .V .-region will grow much faster than in the rest of the Republic: Agriculture and general government services will grow much slower than in the rest of the Republic.Transport and the owning of homes will grow reasonably slower than in the rest of the Republic; and mrning in the P.W.V.-region will grow much slower than in the rest of the Republic,

e e e

17 -The Central sub-region is the significant contributor with regard to the GNP of the PoW.V--region, whereas industry, commerce and mining are the most important production sectors,

The net return and work possibility of the manufacturing industry in the P .¥CV .-region has grown faster here than in the rest of the Republic,, The difference in yearly growth rate is: net return 8,4$ as against 7 .7$ and work opportunity 4„0$ as against 3 «7$, Manufacturing industry in the P »WTV»-region is therefore developing at a faster rate than in the rest of the Republic,The importance of the Manufacturing industry of the P W,V, region in relation to the manufacturing industry of the Republic is apparent in the approminate 45,6$ contribu­tion which the region makes towards the work possibility of manufacturing industry of the Republic and the contribution of the approximate 48.7$ of the net return, The net return of the manufacturing industry in P.¥,V,~ region has increased by more than R 33«8 million than the growth rate which was reached by the Republic and work possibility increased by more than 8772 persons.

This analysis indicates main groups of which;(a) activities in the P .¥»V ,-region, as compared with the

Republic, are declining, viz: textiles, clothing etc., timber and timber products, leather and leather products, non-ferrous metals mineral products and diverse indus tries;

(b) activities in the P.W.V,-region, as compared with the Republic, are increasing, viz: liquor, tobacco, printers and publishers, rubber products, chemicals and chemical products, petroleum and coal products and electrical machinery, etc.;

(c) the tendency in activities in the P .¥«V .-region which correspond to that, or those activities which decrease in this region but which still contribute significantly to the activities of the Republic, viz: food, furniture, paper and paper products; basic metal industry, metal products, machinery and transport equipment.

The main groups of the manufacturing industry in the P.¥^V»- region is mainly concentrated in the Central sub-region, except in the case of products such as petroleum and coal in the Southern sub-region and the basic metal industry which are concentrated in the Northern and Southern sub-regionsThe racial grouping of work possibility in the P «¥„V .-region has not changed much from 1956/7 to 1963/4, During this period the work possibility for whites increased by a greater percentage than for the Bantu viz, 282$ as against 27$, From the aforegoing it is evident that the P.¥.V,-region has played an important role in the economy of the Republic and a still more important role in the Manufacturing industry.The importance of the P ,¥,V ,-region as against the Republic in favour of certain major groups of industry, is decreasing whereas the significance of other major groups remains either constant or increases. The result of this was that the net output of industry in the P W tV ;.-region increased considerably as compared with the Republic whilst the rate of work opportunity does not differ markedly. A higher production is

18/. . » * i • e

thus achieved in this region, whilst employment does not increase to the same extent,Decentralisation of industries can be speeded up to a greater degree if industries which have a tendency to become established outside the P.W.V.-region are encouraged to do so.

- 1 8 -

TABLE 1

Sub-

ESTIMATION OF THE P .W .V „-POPULATION FOR THE PERIOD 1960-2000_____________________ (in thousands)________________________(Divided into Sub-divisions as requested by the Abattoircommittee)

)Region I960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Total Population (High e s timation b jCentral 1,137 1 , 2 9 8 1,468 1,645 1,817 2,005 2 , 2 1 1 2,409 2 , 6 02Northern 542 648 768 902 1,059 1,165 1 , 2 8 1 1,393 1,503 IEastern 701 772 834 897 969 1 , 0 7 0 1 , 1 7 8 1 , 2 8 3 1,384Western 379 439 501 566 633 6 97 769 838 909Southern 254 303 349 397 464 513 567 616 666 jS. Eastern 63 73 80 89 96 107 119 131 i4iNigel 49 55 61 66 71 79 87 96 i°5 jP.W.V. as awhole 3,125 3 , 58 8 4,06l ^, 5 6 2 5,109 5 , 6 3 6 6 , 2 1 2 6 , 7 6 6 7,310

1. Present limitations are maintained with regard to theinflow of Bantu„

Total Population (Low estimation ^ )Central 1,137 1,284 1,434 1,594 1,752 1,914 2,054 2,167 2,284Northern 542 641 751 874 1 , 0 2 0 1 , 1 1 1 1,189 1 , 2 5 0 1,314Eastern 701 762 814 868 933 1,019 1 , 0 9 2 1,151 1 , 2 0 8Western 379 435 488 547 608 663 711 747 789Southern 254 299 340 384 446 487 523 548 576S.Eas tern 63 72 78 85 90 100 108 113 118Nigel 49 5b 59 64 68 75 79 84 88P.W.V. asa whole 3,125 3,547 3,964 4,416 4,917 5,369 5,756 6 , 060 6,377

More radical limitations on the future inflow of Bantu,CentralNorthernEastern

Western

Southern

magisterial district of Johannesburg.magisterial district of Pretoria.Benoni, Boksburg, Brakpan, Germiston, Kempton Park, Springs»Krugersdorp, Randfontein, Roodepoort, Oberholzer.

: Vereeniging, Yanderbijlpark, Sasolburg, South-Eastern: Balfour, Heidelberg.Nigel :

19/

TABLE 1 (CSub-region

ontinued)

I960 1965 1970

- 19 -

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Central 4o4 431European Population461 489 515 547 578 606 636

Northern 227 255 282 320 354 375 396 4l6 436

Eastern 244 259 271 282 295 312 329 347 364Western 127 l4i 156 171 184 195 207 216 227Southern 7 6 91 105 120 136 145 154 160 168South- Eas tern 1 1 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15Nigel 1 1 1 1 12 12 12 13 13 l4 15P.W.V. as a whole 1 , 1 0 0 1 , 2 0 0 1,299 1,406 1 ,508 1 , 6 0 0 1 ,691 1,774 1 ,86i

Central 59 70The Coloured Po

84 97pulation

1 1 1 122 136 150 164Northern 8 9 10 1 1 12 13 15 16 18Eastern 14 16 18 21 24 28 32 34 36Western 8 9 10 13 15 16 18 20 23Southern 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5South- Eastern + JNigel + - - - - - - - - -P, ¥. V „ as a whole 91 106 124 144 165 182 205 224 246

++

Central

539 Coloureds of i960 have to be rehoused 342 Coloureds of i960 already rehoused.

The Asiatic Population29 32 36 4o 43 47 52 56 61

Northern 8 8 1 1 1 1 13 14 15 16 18

Eastern 9 1 1 1 1 13 17 19 20 22 24Western 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 7Southern 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3South-Eastern 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3Nigel + - - - - - - - - -P.W.V. as a whole 51 57 64 71 81 88 97 104 1 1 6 j

+ 657 Asiaties of I960 have to be rehoused •

QUOTABLE QUOTES RELEVANT TO DR, S-J„ KLEU1S ADDRESS

1, "In many other countries, experience has shown what an important function the human being plays, in the exploitation of natural richest, Even in so poorly endowed countries as, for instance Russia, Israel, Denmark and the Netherlands, human enterprise and skill have been the elements that have brought about environmental and economic changes favouring human activities. How much more cannot we in the Southern Transvaal now achieve, if we concentrate upon the perfection of our human material, and seek to make it more fully capable of taking advantage of the natural riches that surround us - not to mention the tremendous network of services left as a legacy by the gold mining industry,,

And whatever suggestions may be put forward regarding the expansion of the Southern Transvaal industrial complex, the provision of more adequate services, the expansion of residential areas and so forth, it will be understood that all such schemes can succeed only if the necessary modicum of enter­prise and skill exists. The human factor is all important - and I infer from the part that the National Institute of Personnel Research is to play in these deliberations, that this is thoroughly understood by you all.

Now, in recent times I have heard of a number of jeremiads concerning the future of the Southern Transvaal Region. Let me at once say that I personally do not believe there is actually such a thing as a "Southern Transvaal Region". The fact that industrial activity is so largely concentrated here, doesn't make it a region in the economic sense. For if the coal from Witbank, the water from the eastern highlands, the food and timber for the Eastern Transvaal, the iron ores from Thabazimbi, the natural- fibres from the Cape - if all these things were suddenly cut off - the Southern Transvaal would cease to exist.

This metropolitan and industrial complex is so closely connected with all the areas of supply, scattered over hundreds of thousands of square miles, that its wellbeing is a matter of close concern to all living in a far wider area than just the Southern Transvaal - or even the Transvaal, So important, in fact, are the economic relationships between you and the far flung sources of raw materials, that, should you determine to increase industrial output markedly here, you will necessarily have to allow for a corresponding development of productivity and markets elsewhere in the Republic,

In return however, to the pessimists - let me say that if they appear to have good grounds for seeing the Reef towns become the habitations of ghosts, there are equally good grounds on which optimists can see a better future, and these grounds rest on the human element. I do not claim to be able to see an entirely painless transition from an economy based upon gold mining, to one based upon steel and

e e a e a J G * *

2

chemicals - but I do maintain that the adequate education and training of our young people will certainly be vitally important in effecting such a transition successfully„"From the opening address of The Hon® D r * William Nicol, at the Conference on the Problems of Regional Development and Planning in the Southern Transvaal, Convened by the Southern Transvaal Regional Development Association, JohannesburgMay 1963o2» "Mr. Chairman, I am sure that a.11 enjoyed this most clear and logical address of Mr. McGregor. X would like to make a remark about one of the objectives on which Mr. McGregor based his address and conclusions. I am thinking of the objective of replacing mining activity by other economic activities in order to maintain a rate of progress which is at least equal to the rate of progress of the national product and also in order to employ labour which is becoming available during the coming decades.My question now is: Is it really necessary that the rate ofexpansion of the Witwatersrand is more or less equal to the rate of expansion of the country as a whole?

If we also include in our reasoning the objective of decentralization, which is an object of Government policy, would not that affect the target of Witwatersrand expansion?.You must understand that I wish the Witwatersrand everything of the best, a prosperous future and fast expansion, but my question is whether it would be harmful to the Witwatersrand economy if that rate of progress would perhaps be smaller than the national growth rate, because part of the labour moves over to other areas, also in order to assist in the objective of decentralization of industrial and other activities. It would also relieve the pressure on water resources and other facilities in the Witwatersrand area. Thank you."Question asked by Dr. C , Verburgh during the discussion which followed Mr. H.H® McGregor9s paper on"The Industrial Future of The Witwatersrand." The paper was presented at the Conference on the Problems of Regional Development and Planning in the Southern Transvaal May 1963»Mr, H.Hs McGregor replied:

I am indebted to Dr. Vexburgh, for the question. It is clearly one of the major considerations of this country now, which sooner or later, we have got to come to a conclusion on» I d o n ’t think that I can possibly attempt to give him a cut and dried answer now. Thxs is one of the major problems of a developing industrial economy* I think what I can do, is to give one or two indicators in this direction. You may remember, and I am indebted to one of my colleagues for this information, that after the last war in the United Kingdom, great ideas ýere put forward for the decentralization of industry from London. During the war, the industrial centres in and around London were very vulnerable to attack and of course one of the things that the planners immediately got stuck into after the war was to decide on how to decentralize. They developed the concept of the green belt round London with a band of industries outside that. The planners really went to town on it. Now what happened was this; they wanted to get the labour to go to places where they wanted the industries,

c a 9 <3 » 0 * 9 0

- 3 -

but labour did not want to go anywhere, and so they had to invoke powers for the forceable removable of labour which, at that time were judged to be undesirable» In the United Kingdom, since the war, there has not been a decentralization of industry from the London metropolitan area elsewhere; there has been a further aggregation of industry into the London metropolitan area» And this has been for two reasons» Firstly, the communications problem makes it necessary and desireable , for people by and large to work where they are, unless you are going to have some wholesale removal of massive numbers of population» Bear in mind that half a million workers means about a million and a half people. It is quite a removal problem» The fact of the matter is in the United Kingdom, it did not work, and the aggregation of industry in and around London has been going on at an accelerated rate since the war, in spite of all the efforts of the planners to avoid just that situation, I am told that from a statistical point of view, since the period 1958 there has been an appreciation of approximately 37$ in London property value»

Let me consider another aspect of Dr» Verburgh's question» It is this. Industry aggregates and prospers in areas where a pool of labour and markets exists for that industry. Here on the Witwatersrand the steel and engineering industry is largely centred» (About 75$ of the country's activity). It is for a very good reason that steel and engineering industry workers are centred here, and markets are to a large extent here too, I would therefore submit with respect that the question of decentralising is one that should be approached with the greatest hesitation. I don't regard it in principle a bad thing, but I do say that if approached without the necessary analysis, it could be a very bad thing, more particularly if the industries which are decentralised are of the basic type»"

3. "This Zone, which is made up of the Magisterial District of Johannesburg, is most closely affected by the general level of the national ecdnomy, for although mining has for a long time been of relatively little importance as a direct avenue of employment, the reverse is true when mining industry is considered. It is here that the greatest development o'f tertiary activities has taken place, and it may be considered as the major "Central Business District", not only of the Marginal Mines Region but of the country as a whole."Excerpt from Part 1 of the Report of the Marginal Mines Research Unit entitled "Economic Consequences Resulting from Mine Closures in the Marginal Mines Regxon," project undertaken by the Department of Commerce and Applied Economics, University of the Witwatersrand, i960» The report published in 1964 was by R,A« Camerer,

.*•***■*.

D I S C U S S I O N O N A D D R E S S :

INDUSTRIAL PLANNING FOR JOHANNESBURG

- by Professor S.J» Kleu,

QUESTION:Prof. Kleu referred to the probability of establishing an industrial belt between the white area of the southern suburbs and Soweto. He also suggested other belts and buffers. I would like to ask Profe Kleu whether he is of the opinion that this is a sound suggestion.He did refer to the present long distances which the Bantu worker has to travel to his place of work, This is not only tiresome but also affects his productivity. Surely this would be a sound proposal if one could bring both the European and the Bantu worker closer to their place of work by means of this so-called buffer industrial belt. In the first place, the one does not have to cross the other5s area and secondly his home would be considerably closer to his work opportunities.I would like to add to this that there are some industries which cannot be decentralized. I think, for example, of the printing enterprises, minor engineering concerns serving the local population, etc.Johannesburg*s experience with its projects and advanced planning is that annually 32 acres of additional land are required. I think that the establishing of an industrial belt would be a good long-term project as well as providing an outlet for future investment.

Prof. Kleu:Mr. Chairman, .as I have indicated, these are all very complex problems, Mr. Oberholzer may be correct when he draws attention to the lact that considerable problems can be eliminated when the distance of transport is reduced and these people can be brought closer to their homes. These are also factors which I have stressed,

On the contrary though, as you are aware, the Government will most probably distinguish between various enterprises.Personally, I think this is understandable. A decision is necessitated owing to the pressure being brought upon by the increasing numbers of people in the city. This is a question which should be settled by all those concerned - as a matter of give and take - by means of a co-ordinated policy as decided upon by authorities and local authorities. I do think that one should not be prone to generalise at an early stage and therefore I would not like to make an advanced decision. You yourself know some of these reasons.

QUESTION:My second question, Mr. Chairman, is the question of co-ordinated planning, I just want to indicate to you that the Nicholl Highway was planned and connected up

2/*'■'/ ©®&9*0®0

- 2 -

to Jan Smuts without the official knowledge of the City of Johannesburg, Now we always use that as an example when we appeal to the Provincial Authorities to create some sort of planning body that can coordinate with us in this particular field. Last week, I heard about a proposed road parallel to the golden highway running in the direction of Grasmere connecting up with the city’s highways in the vicinity of Uncle Charlie. I heard about this. 3 asked our Roads’ Engineer if he knew anything about it. He said that he knew nothing about it. I then told the Director of Roads of the Transvaal Province and he explained to me where this proposed road was to goNow the question I want to ask is how does one persuade the higher authorities to have a co-ordinated planning system?

Professor Kleu;Mr. Chairman, it is quite clear to me that Mr. Oberholzer has taken my point very well, I must compliment him on a very good question, I think the problem which he raised is a very real one. There is this lack of co-ordination between various means of transport and especially between, as I pointed out, the railway transport in the urban areas and your Provincial and National road systems. It seems to me that this is a problem which can only be solved by the politicians. As I have said before, vre all try as hard as we can to limit State interference, but as far as I can see it, you will have to get co-ordinated action between municipalities, between the Provincial authorities, between the railways, between the Department of Transport.Now when the Department of Planning was started the whole idea behind it was to provide co-ordination between various sectors of the economy and also between various Government Departments,But knowing the Government services as I do, I don’t think that the Department of Planning could co-ordinate this altogether, because it is obvious that the Dept, of Transport and Railways are not going to accept orders from the Dept, of Planning. So, as far as I can see, this type of problem, can only be solved at the very highest level, perhaps by the Cabinet, but that is only my personal view and I am not expressing anybody else’s view,

QUESTION:In discussing the industrial development of Johannesburg and its future, Prof, Kleu stated that we are paying an enormous price for the presence in our midst of the Bantu. Now, Sir, I would like to ask Prof. Kleu if he would be good enough to develop that point by indicating whether and how we can either reduce the price or avoid paying any price at all. In other words, what is the alternative?

Professor Kleu:I don’t think we can avoid that problem, if the Government fails to subsidize the transport of Bantu, One can even argue for the future, if they are going to fail to subsidize the transport of the Whites. If may cause chaos in a great metropolis like Johannesburg. I d on’t think that problem can be avoided. We have the same problem in New York and in all the great cities of the world. So you need that subsidization if you want that concentration. The only alternative if you don’t want the concentration is for decentralization of indus try.

o e s e e o o a f t

QUESTION;Talking about decentralization, there is a Govt, rule to prevent any increase in Bantu labour. Any firm who wants to employ one more Bantu has to apply for a permit to employ that Bantu0 There are, however, a few towns in the Transvaal which do not yet fall under the Act,Perhaps these towns could be developed industrially, but if I am manufacturing in Johannesburg and perhaps move a section of my factory to one of these towns, who can tell me that perhaps in one year's time this same Act might not apply in these towns too, and I would be in exactly the same position.

Prof» Kleu:Well, Sir, it seems to me that S,A. is only so big and we can move people to certain places and then we must stop moving,

QUESTION;The problem has been mentioned of the lack of co-ordination between authorities. Could not more thought be given to Metropolitan government for this area, instead of scores of municipalities. This is an easy way out and it seems as if we are taking the hard way. As far as decentrali­zation is tied up with this, there is a limit to decentralization. Eventually the city dies and there is nothing to replace this great complex which servces the whole country. It will only remain and grow as a commercial centre as long as it is the greatest population centre in the country, when it ceases to be that, then these things will scatter and decay will set in.

Prof, Kleu;Mr. Chairman, I don't profess to be an expert on Municipal Government, so I will keep out of that one. As I have said, there is a real need for this sort of co-ordination so I think you have raised a good question, The point is that if the municipalities among themselves do not show enough good sense to co-ordinate their plans the result usually is some interference from the Central Govt, and although one may regret this, it is often the only way out,Comment;As representative of the Chamber of Industries, I would like to particularly mention the problem of consultation and I was rather distressed to hear from Prof. Kleu that this should be left to the powers that be. This is exactly what has happened and this is why we are in such a mess in many aspects. We have been promised in many of the discussions we have had with higher authorities that there would be consultations.Legislation is churned out in Cape Town at such a rate that it is not possible to have this consultation, I particularly refer to the physical planning and resources. I agree that there should be consultation right through with local authority, Provincial and State authorities, and with the employer organization. I do feel that we are given hope occasionally with a new organization like the Dept, of Planning, but we cannot see that the Department of Planning can possibly prevent the new legislation unless they have a tremendous amount of inspectors inspecting industry. If we could get together on planning, on transportation, on the training of our Bantu labour and on the use of our water resources, it would help

considerably and I able to assist and are here.

k

hope that the City of Johannesburg will be may be assisted by those organisations who

QUESTION;There are two types of commerce0 There is purely paper commerce, and commerce in relation to goods. Developing commerce to a greater extent in industry has the danger that the cost structure becomes high. Handling of the goods does not create goods, it only creates cost.

Prof, Kleu:Mr» Chairman, I would like to point out that I have not advocated the over development of commerce at the expense of industry.We must remember here that we are discussing only the central Witwatersrand, or the Johannesburg area» I have not been talking about the East Rand or the West Rand or the Vereeniging, Van- derbijlpark, Sasolburg Area or Pretoria where there is plenty of industry and there is still going to be more industry. The whole point I am trying to make is that the central city of Johannesburg is going to remain the centre of this whole big area dependent on commerce and the services and the financial institutions, which are necessary to support all this industry in the outlying areas as well as Johannesburg,

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Collection Number: A1132 Collection Name: Patrick LEWIS Papers, 1949-1987

PUBLISHER: Publisher: Historical Papers Research Archive, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Location: Johannesburg ©2016

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