Job Creation and DestructionJesse RothsteinOctober 29, 2010

The Age of Obama and the Lessons of the 1930sUC Berkeley Institute for Research on Labor and Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11

12

13

14

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

Employment Change Since the Recession Began

1974-619801981-31990-32001-42007-

Months since start

Perc

ent o

f ini

tial e

mpl

oym

ent

2007 - Nov

2007 - Dec

2008 - Jan

2008 - Feb

2008 - Mar

2008 - Apr

2008 - May

2008 - Jun

2008 - Jul

2008 - Aug

2008 - Sep

2008 - Oct

2008 - Nov

2008 - Dec

2009 - Jan

2009 - Feb

2009 - Mar

2009 - Apr

2009 - May

2009 - Jun

2009 - Jul

2009 - Aug

2009 - Sep

2009 - Oct

2009 - Nov

2009 - Dec

2010 - Jan

2010 - Feb

2010 - Mar

2010 - Apr

2010 - May

2010 - June

2010 - July

2010 - Aug

2010 - Sep

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Monthly Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (thousands)

Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Q1: Is long-term unemployment a symptom of advanced “Amerisclerosis?”Unemployed 27 weeks or more as a share of all unemployed

19801980 - Feb1980 - Mar1980 - Apr1980 - May1980 - Jun1980 - Jul1980 - Aug1980 - Sep1980 - Oct1980 - Nov1980 - Dec1981 - Jan1981 - Feb1981 - Mar1981 - Apr1981 - May1981 - Jun1981 - Jul1981 - Aug1981 - Sep1981 - Oct1981 - Nov1981 - Dec1982 - Jan1982 - Feb1982 - Mar1982 - Apr1982 - May1982 - Jun1982 - Jul1982 - Aug1982 - Sep1982 - Oct1982 - Nov1982 - Dec1983 - Jan1983 - Feb1983 - Mar1983 - Apr1983 - May1983 - Jun1983 - Jul1983 - Aug1983 - Sep1983 - Oct1983 - Nov1983 - Dec1984 - Jan1984 - Feb1984 - Mar1984 - Apr1984 - May1984 - Jun1984 - Jul1984 - Aug1984 - Sep1984 - Oct1984 - Nov1984 - Dec19851985 - Feb1985 - Mar1985 - Apr1985 - May1985 - Jun1985 - Jul1985 - Aug1985 - Sep1985 - Oct1985 - Nov1985 - Dec1986 - Jan1986 - Feb1986 - Mar1986 - Apr1986 - May1986 - Jun1986 - Jul1986 - Aug1986 - Sep1986 - Oct1986 - Nov1986 - Dec1987 - Jan1987 - Feb1987 - Mar1987 - Apr1987 - May1987 - Jun1987 - Jul1987 - Aug1987 - Sep1987 - Oct1987 - Nov1987 - Dec1988 - Jan1988 - Feb1988 - Mar1988 - Apr1988 - May1988 - Jun1988 - Jul1988 - Aug1988 - Sep1988 - Oct1988 - Nov1988 - Dec1989 - Jan1989 - Feb1989 - Mar1989 - Apr1989 - May1989 - Jun1989 - Jul1989 - Aug1989 - Sep1989 - Oct1989 - Nov1989 - Dec19901990 - Feb1990 - Mar1990 - Apr1990 - May1990 - Jun1990 - Jul1990 - Aug1990 - Sep1990 - Oct1990 - Nov1990 - Dec1991 - Jan1991 - Feb1991 - Mar1991 - Apr1991 - May1991 - Jun1991 - Jul1991 - Aug1991 - Sep1991 - Oct1991 - Nov1991 - Dec1992 - Jan1992 - Feb1992 - Mar1992 - Apr1992 - May1992 - Jun1992 - Jul1992 - Aug1992 - Sep1992 - Oct1992 - Nov1992 - Dec1993 - Jan1993 - Feb1993 - Mar1993 - Apr1993 - May1993 - Jun1993 - Jul1993 - Aug1993 - Sep1993 - Oct1993 - Nov1993 - Dec1994 - Jan1994 - Feb1994 - Mar1994 - Apr1994 - May1994 - Jun1994 - Jul1994 - Aug1994 - Sep1994 - Oct1994 - Nov1994 - Dec19951995 - Feb1995 - Mar1995 - Apr1995 - May1995 - Jun1995 - Jul1995 - Aug1995 - Sep1995 - Oct1995 - Nov1995 - Dec1996 - Jan1996 - Feb1996 - Mar1996 - Apr1996 - May1996 - Jun1996 - Jul1996 - Aug1996 - Sep1996 - Oct1996 - Nov1996 - Dec1997 - Jan1997 - Feb1997 - Mar1997 - Apr1997 - May1997 - Jun1997 - Jul1997 - Aug1997 - Sep1997 - Oct1997 - Nov1997 - Dec1998 - Jan1998 - Feb1998 - Mar1998 - Apr1998 - May1998 - Jun1998 - Jul1998 - Aug1998 - Sep1998 - Oct1998 - Nov1998 - Dec1999 - Jan1999 - Feb1999 - Mar1999 - Apr1999 - May1999 - Jun1999 - Jul1999 - Aug1999 - Sep1999 - Oct1999 - Nov1999 - Dec20002000 - Feb2000 - Mar2000 - Apr2000 - May2000 - Jun2000 - Jul2000 - Aug2000 - Sep2000 - Oct2000 - Nov2000 - Dec2001 - Jan2001 - Feb2001 - Mar2001 - Apr2001 - May2001 - Jun2001 - Jul2001 - Aug2001 - Sep2001 - Oct2001 - Nov2001 - Dec2002 - Jan2002 - Feb2002 - Mar2002 - Apr2002 - May2002 - Jun2002 - Jul2002 - Aug2002 - Sep2002 - Oct2002 - Nov2002 - Dec2003 - Jan2003 - Feb2003 - Mar2003 - Apr2003 - May2003 - Jun2003 - Jul2003 - Aug2003 - Sep2003 - Oct2003 - Nov2003 - Dec2004 - Jan2004 - Feb2004 - Mar2004 - Apr2004 - May2004 - Jun2004 - Jul2004 - Aug2004 - Sep2004 - Oct2004 - Nov2004 - Dec20052005 - Feb2005 - Mar2005 - Apr2005 - May2005 - Jun2005 - Jul2005 - Aug2005 - Sep2005 - Oct2005 - Nov2005 - Dec2006 - Jan2006 - Feb2006 - Mar2006 - Apr2006 - May2006 - Jun2006 - Jul2006 - Aug2006 - Sep2006 - Oct2006 - Nov2006 - Dec2007 - Jan2007 - Feb2007 - Mar2007 - Apr2007 - May2007 - Jun2007 - Jul2007 - Aug2007 - Sep2007 - Oct2007 - Nov2007 - Dec2008 - Jan2008 - Feb2008 - Mar2008 - Apr2008 - May2008 - Jun2008 - Jul2008 - Aug2008 - Sep2008 - Oct2008 - Nov2008 - Dec2009 - Jan2009 - Feb2009 - Mar2009 - Apr2009 - May2009 - Jun2009 - Jul2009 - Aug2009 - Sep2009 - Oct2009 - Nov2009 - Dec20102010 - Feb2010 - Mar2010 - Apr2010 - May2010 - Jun2010 - Jul2010 - Aug2010 - Sep0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Year

Perc

ent

New Hires and Long-Term Unemployment

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-103.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8H

ires

rate

(JO

LTS)

Long

-term

une

mpl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)

6 monthsHires rate (left axis)

Long-term unemployment (right axis)

Q2: How have the repeated extensions of unemployment insurance benefits affected the labor market?Traditional program: 26 weeks.Extended Benefits program:

◦ Predates this recession◦ Up to 20 weeks in high-UE states

Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08)◦ June 30, 2008: 13 extra weeks◦ November 21, 2008: Up to 20 weeks in high-UE states.◦ November 6, 2009: Up to 53 weeks – 99 weeks total.

Maximum possible weeks: 26 46 59 66 99