Jim Stewart Chair, Dorset Local Enterprise

Partnership

Question time

Professor Steven Tee, Executive Dean, Bournemouth University

Lorna Carver Director, Dorset Local Enterprise

Partnership

Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership

About Dorset LEP Activities & Achievements

Show reel

Conor Burns, MP for Bournemouth West, Alderney and Branksome

East

Nigel Jump, Professor of Regional Economic Development, Bournemouth University

Dorset: context & challenge

UK context: slow growth, high inflation, & low unemployment

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1989 Q1 1991 Q1 1993 Q1 1995 Q1 1997 Q1 1999 Q1 2001 Q1 2003 Q1 2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1 2017 Q1

Unemployment Inflation Growth

UK context Stubborn ‘imbalances’ household debt >75% GDP public debt >85% GDP trade deficit (G&S) >£33.7bn, c2% GDP loose money QE & rates hangover Capacity ‘gaps’ soft capital investment (infrastructure & technology/innovation, people & places) productivity flat for years … Policy danger - ‘mercantilism strikes back’ …

Regional context: SW = modest momentum

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr-

17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

output employment balance line

‘Wessex’ context: Dorset’s £16bn economy

‘Wessex’ context – Dorset slips >20% below average

Dorset context – full employment: quantum v quality

Oct 2016-Sep 2017 % rates employment unemployment UK 74.4 4.5 South West 78.0 3.5 South East 78.4 3.4 Bournemouth 76.4 3.8 Poole 75.3 3.2 Christchurch 80.7 2.3 East Dorset 80.6 2.4 North Dorset 83.7 2.5 West Dorset 79.4 2.7 Weymouth 62.8 4.0 & Portland

Dorset context: boundary, sector, residence & commuting

ABDE: land-based & utilities C: manufacturing F: construction GHI: distribution J: info & comms K: financial services L: real

estate MN: business services OPQ: public sector RST: other services

Dorset context: 2016 shares typical … not ideal where’s the value?

Challenge - “wrong” kind of growth ageing population … full employment falling real wages … cheap labour effective exchange rates … volatile low interest rates … now rising weak investment incentives low creative destruction & aspiration to compete productivity puzzle? not really - too many low value jobs in a weak investment cycle

Challenge – potential for a “different” kind of growth Barriers uncertainty … beyond Brexit & Trump - real & imagined cost changes - access to agency, programmes & markets - access to intelligence / information, skills / innovation, funding - direct investment & trade competitiveness / sticky supply chains - compatible standards & regulations Opportunities real & imagined returns to ‘new’ effort/incentives - negotiation: mitigation, substitution & spread - productivity: invention & innovation, education & entrepreneurship - ‘new’ psychology of supply chains & markets

Challenge - forecast consensus

OBR March 2018 – real growth <1.5% pa. Investment <2.5% pa. … suppressed trade/investment … stretched household/public finances … sustained productivity gap Later … better if can compete digital revolution skills & innovation infrastructure agglomeration & connectivity business support access & aspiration demography & technology “digi-yoof” doing things better … & … doing better things

Challenge: industrial strategy 5 foundations Ideas People Infrastructure Business Environment Places 4 challenges Artificial Intelligence & Big Data Future Mobility Clean Growth Ageing Society

Challenge: risks, needs & targets National risks politics & policy & international relations market & sector shocks slipping into recession … easy from here … or surprise on the upside Local needs political/business commitment & consistency private & local buy-in / leadership capital / capacity trade / investment Key Targets ‘right’ kind of growth productivity-based, long-term sustainable, green growth

Questions for the audience

What kind of Dorset do you want? Has Dorset the aspiration & capacity for productivity-led

growth?

Which economic ‘league’ should Dorset be in? Which ‘league’ is your sector in … & where could it be? Which ‘league’ is your business in … & where could it be?

Consider the 5 foundations … what do we lack to ‘drive’

growth? Consider the 4 challenges … what should be our priorities?

Have we the right local structures/capacity /deliverers? - LEP & other agencies - MPs & local government - Business & sector groups - Academic & other development institutions

Importantly, are they working together towards the ‘right’ growth? Mixture of psychology, investment, engagement & competitiveness

Collaborate to Compete Is sustainable development adequately resourced? How do we overcome Dorset’s ‘peripherality’?

© 2005 Europa Pages - Map © GeoAtlas. All rights reserved.

Jim Stewart, Chair, Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership

Our Vision for Dorset

By 2033 Dorset will be the UK’s most sustainable Core City Region

The Challenge

Dorset’s economy - £16.76bn GVA Productivity gap - £2.5bn

Close the gap through: - Ideas

- People - Infrastructure

- Business environment - Places

Our strategy

Define key sectors and high growth companies Capitalise on our primary assets Maximise Dorset’s share of central government funding Invest in infrastructure Create a highly-skilled, productive workforce Provide a sustainable, affordable and diverse housing

market Leverage Dorset’s natural advantage

Strategy

Create a compelling and ambitious proposition: Drive up productivity Enhance the Dorset brand Work with other partners to compete with the Northern

Powerhouse and Midlands Engine

Effective collaboration is key

Key focus

Shape, build and deliver the Government’s Industrial Strategy locally in Dorset

Improve productivity Build on our strengths

Enhance employment opportunities Become more innovative and competitive

The Dorset Opportunity

Enhance the Dorset economy Deliver our vision Close the £2.5 billion output gap Take advantage of Local Government Reform

Closing the output gap

Innovation - £1,154m; 46%

Enterprise - £461m; 19%

Investment - £276m; 11%

Competitiveness & other - £269m; 19%

Skills - £325m; 13%

£2.5 BILLION

Improving productivity through improved rail infrastructure

Improving productivity through improved road infrastructure

Question time

AMBITION & VISION FOR DORSET

Be part of it!

Ian Girling Dorset Chamber of Commerce

and Industry

Dorset LEP Business Forum

Business Forum

Dorset LEP is a private/ public sector partnership Voice of business is essential An area of development

Development of a new Business Forum, reporting to LEP Board

Building on the Dorset Business Alliance

Business Forum

Conduit to business community focusing on key issues for Dorset economy

Seeking interest from business community Contact – vicki.hailes@dcci.co.uk

Q&A

Cllr Gary Suttle, Leader of Purbeck District Council

Ian Girling, Chief Executive, Dorset Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Jim Stewart, Chair, Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership

Nigel Jump, Professor of Regional Economic Development, Bournemouth University

Sara Uzzell, Director, Sandbuzz Ltd