jim fleming - university of edinburgh slides/fleming.pdf · jim fleming sts program colby college...
TRANSCRIPT
A male hand is on the thermostat The hand is god-like in scale Thermostat is “nowhere,” but perhaps in outer space Temperature is 73 F but is being turned back to 54 F or 5
degrees cooler than its long-term average The thermostat dial is centered on Roswell, NM
The “Tipping Point”
Where will it roll?
Tipping Points
1. Physical (Hansen) 2. Social (Gore) 3. Geo-engineering (Teller, et al.)
Doing too little Doing too much Making the middle path broader
Paul Crutzen
What’s wrong with climate engineering?
1. Who has the moral right? 2. What? A global thermostat! 3. Reduce incentives to mitigate? 4. Unknown side effects? 5. Could it be commercialized? 6. Once begun, can we ever stop? 7. Why is the military so interested? 8. What if nations or companies do it unilaterally? 9. Does it violate existing treaties? 10. Will it alter fundamental human relationships to nature?
WHAT ROLE FOR HISTORY?
In facing unprecedented challenges, it is good to seek historical precedents.
History matters – it shapes identity and behavior; it is not just a celebratory record of inevitable progress. It should inform public policy.
Students of climate dynamics would be well-served to study science dynamics (history).
Weather and Climate Control have a long and checkered history.
Eliza Leslie James Espy
1947 military seeding of a hurricane by Project Cirrus
Vladimir Zworykin
“Outline of Weather
Proposal”
1945
Reprinted in History of Meteorology 4 (2008) http://www.meteohistory.org
Wexler (L) with Von Neumann, Charney, ENIAC and others, 1954
Soviet Macro-engineering
Damming the Congo River at Stanley Hill to irrigate the Sahara with a “Second Nile”
(after Sergel)
Wexler in the Oval Office
Wexler’s “Halloween Paper”
Wexler and V.A. Bugaev in Geneva, Mar. 1962
[Climate control] can best be classified as
“interesting hypothetical exercises” until the
consequences of tampering with large scale
atmospheric events can be assessed in advance.
Most such schemes that have been advanced would
require colossal engineering feats and contain the
inherent risk of irremediable harm to our planet or
side effects counterbalancing the possible short-
term benefits -- Harry Wexler 1962
Sulfate Cannon -- NAS 1992
Turning the Blue sky milky white
SRM also attenuates starlight! End of ground-based astronomy and star gazing
Source: John Ireland
“Apprehending” Climate Change
Awareness and Understanding
Anticipation and Dread — Fear
Intervention and Control
HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED?
• Authority / Prestige • Data • Experiment / Theory • Models • Technology Consensus
WHAT DO WE KNOW? WHAT DO WE FEAR? WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
(with apologies to Immanuel Kant, Critique of Pure Reason)
Climate Change is Simple
Study the historical, ethical, legal, political, and societal aspects of geoengineering -- American Meteorological Society, Policy Statement on Geoengineering
IPCC WG4 – historical, social, cultural
Phaeton, from the series The Four Disgracers (1588) by Hendrick Goltzius (Netherlandish, 1558-1617).