SABR Case Competition

Jesse Hiss, Jack Pillsbury, Mick Schroeder, Clayton Vance, Harrison Williams

Finding The Perfect

Cole Hamels Trade

Outline

• 1) Projecting Hamels future value using his current value with risk involved

• 2) Putting a dollar value on that WAR • 3) Finding possible trade partners • 4) Valuing those prospects based on WAR, age, position, and rank and

associated a dollar value with that • 5) Coming up with possible trade packages that provides the most value

for the teams involved• 6) Estimating added wins • 7) Calculating added revenue for those teams

Stage 1

Finding Hamels Present and Future Value • To find Hamels PV we used a combination of our own SIERA

calculation and a consistency rating.

• Calculated SIERA – K% , BB% , GB – (FB+IFFB)

• Consistency rating – Our SIERA + WAR + FIP weighted over the last 3 years

Hamels Current Value1 Pitcher Name Team IP W L WAR Calculated SIERA2 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 198.1 21 3 7.2 2.053 Felix Hernandez Mariners 236 15 6 6.2 2.574 David Price - - - 248.1 15 12 6.1 2.705 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 215 14 11 4.3 2.716 Corey Kluber Indians 235.2 18 9 7.3 2.737 Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 179 15 9 3.2 2.798 Chris Sale White Sox 174 12 4 5.4 2.819 Phil Hughes Twins 209.2 16 10 6.1 2.93

10 Zack Greinke Dodgers 202.1 17 8 3.9 2.9611 Brandon McCarthy - - - 200 10 15 3 2.9812 Madison Bumgarner Giants 217.1 18 10 3.6 3.0513 Jordan Zimmermann Nationals 199.2 14 5 5.2 3.0814 Jeff Samardzija - - - 219.2 7 13 4.1 3.1115 Jon Lester - - - 219.2 16 11 6.1 3.2316 Max Scherzer Tigers 220.1 18 5 5.6 3.3617 Alex Wood Braves 171.2 11 11 2.5 3.4018 Johnny Cueto Reds 243.2 20 9 4.1 3.4119 Dallas Keuchel Astros 200 12 9 3.9 3.4420 Garrett Richards Angels 168.2 13 4 4.3 3.5021 Alex Cobb Rays 166.1 10 9 2.7 3.50

22Cole Hamels Phillies 204.2 9 9 3.8 3.5423 James Shields Royals 227 14 8 3.7 3.5624 Hiroki Kuroda Yankees 199 11 9 3.5 3.5725 Mike Leake Reds 214.1 11 13 1.9 3.5826 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 227 20 9 4.5 3.59

Pitcher Name Calculated SIERA Consistency Value

1 Felix Hernandez 2.86 24.45

2 Clayton Kershaw 2.80 24.36

3 David Price 3.05 24.12

4 Chris Sale 2.99 24.11

5 Max Scherzer 3.26 23.84

6 Zack Greinke 3.31 23.78

7Cole Hamels 3.40 23.718 Madison Bumgarner 3.32 23.69

9 James Shields 3.55 23.65

10 Adam Wainwright 3.24 23.63

11 Jeff Samardzija 3.48 23.21

12 R.A. Dickey 3.94 23.17

13 Jordan Zimmermann 3.40 23.08

14 Justin Verlander 3.88 22.96

15 Hiroki Kuroda 3.60 22.90

2012-2014

2014

Stage 1

Finding his future value over control years • Combination of projected WAR calculations and player

comparisons • Weighted his projected WAR at 40% and his player comps at

60% • Comparisons - pitchers with similar:

• stats through age 30• physical attributes• mechanics• pitching style• pitch tendencies

Pitchers Comparisons

Tom GlavineRoy Oswalt Chuck Finley

Cliff LeeMark Buehrle

Pedro Martinez

The Johan Santana Comparison

• Cole Hamel’s Pitch Breakdown compared to Johan Santana’s

• Average Velocity on FB over course of career both 91.2

FBCHSLOther

FB CH

CT CB

Hamels

Santana

26 27 28 29 30 3186

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

HamelsSantana

Stage 1

Hamels WAR from 31-35

Age aWAR GlaWAR OswWAR FinWAR LeeWAR BeuWAR PedWAR HamWAR weiAVG 5/3/2 proj Tot_AVG UP_AVG LOW_AVG

26 5.2 4.7 6.3 3.6 4.2 6 6.4 3.5 5.05

27 5 3.5 5.6 4.5 2.7 1.8 11.9 4.7 4.71

28 4.233333 3.4 5.6 2.8 0.2 3.5 9.9 4.4 4.06

29 4.5 4.2 4.4 1.2 7.1 4.3 5.8 4.1 4.1

30 5.1 5.1 3.1 4.9 6.5 3.2 7.8 3.8 4.88

31 4.766667 3.6 3 3.5 7 3.7 7.8 4.23 4.01 4.14 4.80 3.49

32 4.816667 4.7 4.3 4.3 6.5 3.4 5.7 4.69 4.03 4.43 5.08 3.77

33 4.016667 4.2 2.5 4.9 4.8 1.9 5.8 3.99 4.22 4.08 4.74 3.42

34 2.966667 4.5 0.7 2.8 5.1 2.7 2 3.03 4.20 3.50 4.15 2.84

35 2.216667 1.5 0.9 4.5 1.7 3.5 1.2 2.17 3.86 2.85 3.50 2.19

Standard Deviation = 1.85 95% Confidence Interval = +/- 0.66 Wins

Stage 1

Hamels WAR from 31-35

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 370

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Future WAR

Chuck Finley Cliff Lee Mark Buehrle Tom Glavine Pedro Martinez Roy Oswalt Average

Age

WAR

Age WAR

31 4.14

32 4.43

33 4.08

34 3.50

35 2.85

Stage 1

95% Confidence Interval

30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5 33 33.5 34 34.5 35 35.50

1

2

3

4

5

6

Future WAR

Chuck Finley Cliff Lee Mark Buehrle Tom Glavine Pedro MartinezRoy Oswalt Tot_AVG Upper Average Lower Average

Age

WAR

Stage 2

Putting a Dollar Value on Hamels WAR

Age WAR Expected Value WAR Value NPV Expected Contract NPV Contract Surplus

31 4.142 $28,994,000.00 $7,000,000.00 $126,602,538.67 $23,500,000.00 $99,000,360.18 $27,602,178.49

32 4.426 $32,534,040.00 $7,350,000.00 $23,500,000.00

33 4.080 $31,489,869.60 $7,717,500.00 $23,500,000.00

34 3.497 $28,334,196.20 $8,103,375.00 $23,500,000.00

35 2.845 $24,207,392.36 $8,508,543.75 $20,000,000.00

Stage 3

Risk Assessment- Hamels • Factors that influence future injuries, ranked in order of

importance – Past Injuries– Decreased FB Velocity – Pitch Type– Mechanics – Injury Before Age 24– Pitcher Comparisons

Past Injuries

• 2004- Elbow Tendonitis (minors) missed 40 games (20) • 2007- Elbow Ligament soreness, missed 30 games (23) • 2011- Surgery on elbow in off season, returned healthy for

2012 opener • 2013- Reported shoulder soreness, nothing came of it

Injury Adjustment

Age WAR Expected Value WAR Value NPV Excpected Contract NPV ContractNPV Surplus Value

Adjustment after InjuryAssessment

31 4.14 $28,994,000.00 $7,000,000.00 $126,602,538.67 $23,500,000.00 $99,000,360.18 $27,602,178.49 $30,362,396.34

32 4.43 $32,534,040.00 $7,350,000.00 $23,500,000.00

33 4.08 $31,489,869.60 $7,717,500.00 $23,500,000.00

34 3.50 $28,334,196.20 $8,103,375.00 $23,500,000.00

35 2.85 $24,207,392.36 $8,508,543.75 $20,000,000.00

Where is Hamelsmost valuable?

Stage 3

Finding Possible Trade Partners

Nationals WAR Dodgers WAR Cardinals WAR Red Sox WAR Pirates WAR Blue Jays WAR Cubs WAR

Max Scherzer 4.9Clayton Kershaw 5.9

Adam Wainwright 3.9 Rick Porcello 2.9 Gerrit Cole 2.6

Marcus Stroman 2.8 Jon Lester 4

Stephen Strasburg 3.7 Zack Greinke 3.2

Carlos Martinez 2.3 Wade Miley 2.4

Francisco Liriano 2.3

Mark Buehrle 2.6

Kyle Hendricks 2.6

Jordan Zimmermann 3.7 Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.6 Lance Lynn 2.8

Clay Buchholz 1.7

Vance Worley 1.2

Drew Hutchison 1.8 Jake Arrieta 1.7

Gio Gonzalez 2.6Brandon McCarthy 1.9

Michael Wacha 1.7

Justin Masterson 1.4 A.J. Burnett 1.5 R.A. Dickey 1.9

Jason Hammel 1.2

Doug Fister 2Brett Anderson 0.7 John Lackey 1.8 Joe Kelly 0.6 Jeff Locke 0.3

Marco Estrada 0.9

Tsuyoshi Wada 0.8

Total War 16.9 13.6 12.5 9 7.9 10 10.3With Hamels 17.8 16.5 13.6 11.3 10.5 12 12.4% Increase 5.33% 21.32% 8.80% 25.56% 32.91% 20.00% 20.39%

Stage 4

Valuing Prospects • Method: – Player age, position and level gave us a risk value (low, med, high)– Examined prospect ranking charts – Equated above findings to find their surplus value over first 6 years of

service time

Trade Option 2

Jameson Taillon(RHP)

• Total Surplus Value = $26.88• Baseball America #31 Pirates #2• Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60

| Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60• “potential number two starter”• 2nd Overall Pick in the 2010 Draft out of HS

Age: 23

Austin Meadows(OF)

• Total Surplus Value= $22.54 Million• Baseball America #46 Pirates #4• Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 65 | Arm: 40 |

Field: 60 | Overall: 55• “He has a smooth left-handed swing and an advanced

approach at the plate”• 9th pick in 2013 Draft out of HS

Age: 19

Jacoby Jones(2B/OF)

• Total Surplus Value≈ 5 Million. • Pirates #12 • Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 50 | Run: 65 |Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45• “Jones has the tools to do just about everything on the

baseball field”• 3rd Round Pick in 2013 out of LSU

Age: 22

Trade Option 2 - Pirates

NPV Received NPV Given

Pirates $52,009,779.69 $51,800,000.00

Get $52,009,779.69

CASH $21,647,383.35

Hamels $30,362,396.34

Give $51,800,000.00

Jones $4,733,333.33

Meadows $21,466,666.67

Taillon $25,600,000.00

Trade Option 2 - Phillies

NPV Received NPV Given

Phillies $51,800,000.00 $52,009,779.69

Get $51,800,000.00

Jones $4,733,333.33

Meadows $21,466,666.67

Taillon $25,600,000.00

Give $52,009,779.69

CASH $21,647,383.35

Hamels $30,362,396.34

Converting Wins to Revenue

Increase in wins effect on playoff revenue

Increase in wins effect on ticket revenue

Making the Playoffs Not Making the Playoffs0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Postseason Effect on Revenue%

Incr

ease

in

Reve

nue

Pirates

Pirates

• 2014 vs. 2013 – 14.6% increase in revenue

• Average 10.1% and 14.6%

• 12.35% Increase

Playoff Percentage vs. Wins

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1000.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Non Linear Regression

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1050.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Non Linear Regression

70 75 80 85 90 95 1000.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Wins Regression

Wins PO%75 8.73%76 10.42%77 12.48%78 14.99%79 18.07%80 21.81%81 26.35%82 31.77%83 38.13%84 45.37%85 53.26%86 61.42%87 69.33%88 76.45%89 82.37%90 86.91%91 90.12%92 92.23%93 93.52%94 94.25%95 94.65%

Trade Option 2 – Playoff Revenue AddedWins PO%

75 5.53%76 6.29%77 7.23%78 8.42%79 9.93%80 11.88%81 14.38%82 17.63%83 21.82%84 27.18%85 33.92%86 42.12%87 51.58%88 61.77%89 71.79%90 80.68%91 87.76%92 92.81%93 96.07%94 98.00%95 99.05%

Pirates Phillies (Year 6)

2014 Rev $204,000,000.00 $265,000,000.00

Playoffs $229,200,876.40 $291,765,000.00

No Playoffs $217,286,630.54 $280,635,000.00

Rev Dif $11,914,245.86 $11,130,000.00

Wins added 3.8 3.1

Wins bef 84.2

PO% bef 46.9%

Wins aft 88.0

PO% aft 76.5%

PO% Dif 29.6% 11.1%

Rev Added $3,520,939.19 $1,237,309.60

Wins vs. Attendance

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1000

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

Trade Option 2 – Ticket Revenue AddedPirates Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added 3.8 3.1

Wins bef 84.2

Attendance bef 2,566,700.0

Wins aft 88.0

Attendance aft 2,810,667.0

Attendance Dif 243,967 197,358

Avg Ticket Price $73.91 $82.10

Ticket Rev Added $18,031,601 $16,203,092

Trade Option 2 – Total Revenue Added

Pirates Phillies (Year 6)

Playoff Rev Added $1,237,310 $3,520,939

Ticket Rev Added $16,203,092 $18,031,601

Sum Rev Added $17,440,401 $21,552,540

Total Rev Added $38,992,942

Avg Rev Added $19,496,471

Red Sox Surplus OF

Red Sox WAR

Mookie Betts 3.4

Rusney Castillo 2.6

Daniel Nava 1.4Allen Craig 0.9

Shane Victorino 1.5

Brock Holt 1.4

Jackie Bradley Jr. 1

Projecting Nava’s Potential EffectNava WAR = 1.4

Blue Jays WAR Cardinals WAR Cubs WARJose Bautista 5.2 Matt Holliday 2.8 Jorge Soler 2.2Michael Saunders* 1.9 Jason Heyward 4.9 Dexter Fowler 1.3Kevin Pillar 0.7 Jon Jay 1.4 Chris Denorfia 0.4

Dalton Pompey0.2

Peter Bourjos1.4

Arismendy Alcantara0.5

8 10.5 4.49.2 10.5 5.3

15.00% 0.00% 20.45%

Dodgers WAR Nationals WAR Pirates WARYasiel Puig 4.9 Bryce Harper 4.2 Andrew McCutchen 6.1Andre Ethier 0.3 Jayson Werth 2.8 Starling Marte 3.3Carl Crawford 1.6 Denard Span 2.7 Josh Harrison 2.8Joc Pederson 2 Tyler Moore 0.1 Gregory Polanco 0.8

8.8 9.8 138.2 11.1 13.6

-6.82% 13.27% 4.62%

Projecting Nava’s Potential EffectNava WAR = 1.4

Blue Jays WAR Cardinals WAR Cubs WARJose Bautista 5.2 Matt Holliday 2.8 Jorge Soler 2.2Michael Saunders* 1.9 Jason Heyward 4.9 Dexter Fowler 1.3Kevin Pillar 0.7 Jon Jay 1.4 Chris Denorfia 0.4

Dalton Pompey0.2

Peter Bourjos1.4

Arismendy Alcantara0.5

8 10.5 4.49.2 10.5 5.3

15.00% 0.00% 20.45%

Dodgers WAR Nationals WAR Pirates WARYasiel Puig 4.9 Bryce Harper 4.2 Andrew McCutchen 6.1Andre Ethier 0.3 Jayson Werth 2.8 Starling Marte 3.3Carl Crawford 1.6 Denard Span 2.7 Josh Harrison 2.8Joc Pederson 2 Tyler Moore 0.1 Gregory Polanco 0.8

8.8 9.8 138.2 11.1 13.6

-6.82% 13.27% 4.62%

Who needs closer help?

Blue Jays WAR Cardinals WAR Cubs WAR Dodgers WAR

Brett Cecil 0.5 Trevor Rosenthal 1 Hector Rondon 0.3 Kenley Jansen 1.3

Nationals WAR Pirates WAR Red Sox WAR

Drew Storen 0.3 Mark Melancon 0.9 Koji Uehara 1

Who needs closer help?

Blue Jays WAR Cardinals WAR Cubs WAR Dodgers WAR

Brett Cecil 0.5 Trevor Rosenthal 1 Hector Rondon 0.3 Kenley Jansen 1.3

Nationals WAR Pirates WAR Red Sox WAR

Drew Storen 0.3 Mark Melancon 0.9 Koji Uehara 1

Trade Option 1

Manuel Margot(OF)

• Total Surplus Value= $20.4 Million• Baseball America #99 Red Sox # 5• Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 65 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50• “very quick hands and a patient approach at the plate”• “Already skipped a level, on track to reach the Majors at age

22”

Age: 20

Eduardo Rodriguez(LHP)

• Total Surplus Value= $17.8 Million• Baseball America #65 Red Sox #4 • Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 |

Control: 50 | Overall: 50 • “throws his fastball in the low 90s, with good sink and

movement”• “profiles as a possible middle-of-the rotation starter”

Age: 21

Jeff Hoffman(RHP)

• Total Surplus Value= $14.2 Million• Baseball America #87 Blue Jays #3• Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 65 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55• “he works in the mid 90s and hits 98 mph with his fastball”• 9th pick in the 2014 Draft

Age: 22

Trey Ball(LHP)

• Total Surplus Value≈ 4 million• Red Sox #11 • Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50• “An excellent athlete, Ball was considered the top two-way

player in the 2013 Draft class (7th overall)”• “Ball's ceiling might be the highest of all of the Red Sox

pitching prospects”

Age: 20

Trade Option 1 - Blue Jays

NPV Received NPV Given

Blue Jays $13,528,639.46 $13,533,333.33

Get $13,528,639.46

CASH $7,437,641.72

Nava $12,430,000.00

Papelbon -$6,339,002.27

Give $13,533,333.33

Hoffman $13,533,333.33

Trade Option 1 - Red Sox

NPV Received NPV Given

Red Sox $52,009,779.69 $52,563,333.33

Get $52,009,779.69

CASH $21,647,383.35

Hamels $30,362,396.34

Give $52,563,333.33

Ball $3,800,000.00

Margot $19,400,000.00

Nava $12,430,000.00

Rogriguez $16,933,333.33

Trade Option 1 - Phillies

NPV Received NPV Given

Phillies $53,666,666.67 $53,108,419.15

Get $53,666,666.67

Ball $3,800,000.00

Hoffman $13,533,333.33

Margot $19,400,000.00

Rogriguez $16,933,333.33

Give $53,108,419.15

CASH $29,085,025.08

Hamels $30,362,396.34

Papelbon -$6,339,002.27

Trade Option 1 – Playoff Revenue AddedRed Sox Blue Jays Phillies (Year 6)

2014 Rev $357,000,000.00 $218,000,000.00 $265,000,000.00

Playoffs $393,057,000.00 $240,018,000.00 $291,765,000.00

No Playoffs $378,063,000.00 $230,862,000.00 $280,635,000.00

Rev Dif $14,994,000.00 $9,156,000.00 $11,130,000.00

Wins added 3.5 2.0 3.2

Wins bef 87.0 84.0

PO% bef 69.3% 45.4%

Wins aft 90.5 86.0

PO% aft 88.7% 61.4%

PO% Dif 19.3% 16.1% 11.47%

Rev Added $4,031,067.13 $1,469,993.20 $1,276,635.32

Trade Option 1 – Ticket Revenue AddedRed Sox Blue Jays Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added 3.5 2.0 3.2

Wins bef 87.0 84.0

Attendance bef 2,744,500 2,554,000

Wins aft 90.5 86.0

Attendance aft 2,969,417 2,681,000

Attendance Dif 224,917 127,000 204,724

Avg Ticket Price $141.59 $104.54 $82.10

Ticket Rev Added $31,845,998 $13,276,580 $16,807,840

Trade Option 1 – Ticket Revenue AddedRed Sox Blue Jays Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added 3.5 2.0 3.2

Wins bef 87.0 84.0

Attendance bef 2,744,500 2,554,000

Wins aft 90.5 86.0

Attendance aft 2,969,417 2,681,000

Attendance Dif 224,917 127,000 204,724

Avg Ticket Price $141.59 $104.54 $82.10

Ticket Rev Added $31,845,998 $13,276,580 $16,807,840

Trade Option 1 – Ticket Revenue Added

Red Sox Blue Jays Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added 3.5 2.0 3.2

Wins bef 87.0 84.0

Attendance bef 2,744,500 2,554,000

Wins aft 90.5 86.0

Attendance aft 2,969,417 2,681,000

Attendance Dif 224,917 127,000 204,724

Avg Ticket Price $141.59 $104.54 $82.10

Ticket Rev Added $31,845,998 $13,276,580 $16,807,840

224,917÷ 81 Home games

2,776 Per Game

37,811 Max Capacity- 36,495 Avg Attendance

1,316 Per Game

Trade Option 1 – Total Revenue Added

Red Sox Blue Jays Phillies (Year 6)

Playoff Rev Added $4,031,067 $1,469,993 $1,276,635

Ticket Rev Added $31,845,998 $13,276,580 $16,807,840

Sum Rev Added $35,877,065 $14,746,573 $18,084,476

Total Rev Added $68,708,114

Avg Rev Added $22,902,705

Sources• http://www.fangraphs.com • http://www.baseball-reference.com• http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx• http://www.draysbay.com/2012/3/9/2847644/prospect-values• http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=tor• http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/19/7815629/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2015• http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/23/7878709/pittsburgh-pirates-top-20-prospects-for-2015• http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/cole-hamels/• http://www.hardballtimes.com/methodology-and-calculations-of-dollars-per-war/• http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?TeamID=PIT&StatType=RotoChamp• http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=zips&team=14&players=0• http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&position=P• http://www.baseball-almanac.com/baseball_attendance.shtml• http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/• http://blog.tiqiq.com/2014/03/2014-mlb-tickets-prices-by-team/• Diamond Dollars by Vince Gennaro

Questions?