jatin nathwani: north america's energy future keynote
DESCRIPTION
Dr. Jatin Nathwani's keynote presentation at the CEC Joint Public Advisory Public Forum on North America's Energy Future: Powering a Low-carbon Economy for 2030 and Beyond. Find out more at http://www.cec.org/energy2012 Dr. Nathwani is Ontario Research Chair in Public Policy for Sustainable Energy and Executive Director, Waterloo Institute for Sustainable Energy (WISE), University of Waterloo (Ontario). He speaks about the Equinox Blueprint.TRANSCRIPT
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Prof. Jatin NathwaniOntario Research Chair in Public Policy for Sustainable Energy Executive Director, Waterloo Institute for Sustainable EnergyUniversity of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON
Keynote Presentation at theJoint Public Advisory Committee (JPAC) Meeting “Powering a Low-carbon Economy for 2030 and Beyond,”Commission for Environmental Co-operation (CEC), NAFTA.Toronto, ONApril 18, 2012
Equinox Energy 2030:A technological roadmap for a low carbon electrified future
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Today’s Goals
Challenges A View of Global Energy Transitions
Innovation Promise of scientific and technology innovation
Bring coherence to a complex problem Offer fresh thinking
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World at Night
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Lack of Affordable Energy: What does it mean?
Energy’s link to human development
ProductivityNational IncomeHealthEducationSocial Development
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Global population divided into income groups:
Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050
Shifting the development profile further to a “developed” world means energy needs triple by 2050
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2050
Low Poverty
Base case Prosperous world
Po
pu
latio
n, m
illion
s
Population rise to 9 billion + by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries.
Developed (GDP>$12,000)Emerging (GDP<$12,000)Developing (GDP<$5,000)Poorest (GDP<$1,500)
Primary energy
Population Growth, Energy, Income
Sou
rce:
WB
CS
D a
dapt
atio
n of
IEA
200
3
Source: WBCSD 2007
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO2 emissionsGtC / year
A1B/B2 Emissions range
550 ppm
1000 ppm
6-7 Gt reduction
• A1B-AIM• B2-AIM
6
Magnitude of change required for CO2 stabilization
Source: WBCSD 2007
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Energy Transitions and the Global Challenge
• Today’s Global Energy Consumption: 16.5 TW- of which 2.5 TW is non-carbon (mainly hydro, nuclear..)
• By 2050: 30 TW- Likely higher (31- 40 TW)
• By 2050: 15 TW of new non carbon - Equal to 6 x today’s renewable global capacity
All new growth to be met by non-carbon sources
If goal is to stabilize global
emissions profile to 550 ppm GHG emissions, approx
50% of Global Energy Demand
must be non- carbon forms of
energy
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The Equinox Process: Global Thinking
Quorumscientific experts
Forumfuture
leaders
Advisorspolicy &
investment
BlueprintRecommendations
Policy and funding decisions
Implementation
Transformative technologies
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Equinox Summit: Energy 2030
Benchmarking Rebooting Public Dialogue
Communiqué
AFRICA
wgsi.org
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Young Future Leaders
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• Solar/ Wind• Geothermal• Nuclear
• Superconductors
• Smart Grids
• Industrial• Consumer
Global Thinking
Generation
Distribution
Storage
Societal Needs•De-carbonization•Efficiency•Access•Security•Affordability
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Guiding the discussion: A model of the
global electricity landscape
How are transformative technologies integrated into this model?
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Low-Carbon Electricity Ecosystem
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Large scale storage for renewable energy
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Future Grid Reliable and
stable output Storage
critical for increased compatibility of renewable energy to the grid.
Wind Power
Central Power Plant
Physical ESS
PV Generation
Electrochemical ESS
Electricity Controller
Customer Load
Energy Storage for the Future Grid
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Large scale storage for renewable energy
Flow batteries as an illustrative example of electrochemical batteries in grid application
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Large scale storage for renewable energy
How flow batteries work: one common electrolyte, simplicity of electrode reaction, and flexibility for stationary energy
storage applications
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Large scale storage for renewable energy
Characteristic times for energy storage and cost benefit data
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Regions with high intermittent renewable energy production
Policymakers and electrical utilities to coordinate regulatory framework
Private sector to build energy storage infrastructure
Policymakers
Utilities
Private
sector
Implementation:Large scale storage
2020-2030Establish a thriving market in energy storage through deployment on a global scale
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Low Emission Baseload Power
GEOPOWER
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Enhanced Geothermal Power
Geothermal technologies
Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)
Co-produced systems
Advanced binary-cycle plants
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Enhanced Geothermal Power
Challenges for EGS Large upfront capital cost
for drilling projects Lack of access to private
sector capital to undertake high-risk capital intensive projects
Lack of long-term investment incentives such as a price on carbon
Lack of proof of resource for many geothermal prospects
Lack of technically and commercially proven projects
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Currently 10 GW, potential is 10% baseload by 2030
A number of working projects globally, advancing different technologies (HAS, EGS, Co-produced, Hydrothermal)
Several large demo projects to deliver certainty and confidence
Canada can take a leadership role in advancing geopower to the terawatt scale
Geothermal Power Potential
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Implementation:Enhanced Geothermal
Technologies
Convene International stakeholders Information sharing; assess opportunities; de-risk industry
“Ten Enhanced Geothermal Projects’ is timely and relevant. Initial funding and global
working structure Develop program strategy
moving forward
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Challenging your assumptions about nuclear
Nuclearwaste
Nuclear waste is fuel Avoids long-term storage
Closing the fuel cycle Inexhaustible supply
Inherent safety Public acceptance
Decarbonizes base load Eliminates coal
2020 2030 2040 2050
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Advanced Nuclear Power
Why nuclear? Proven capacity to deliver on a large scale Build on existing technological base Closing the fuel cycle: eliminate waste,
improved safety, near inexhaustible resource Transition from fossil fuels without Advanced
Nuclear Technologies?
Advanced nuclear fuel cycle concepts
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Advanced Nuclear Power
Comparing three nuclear fuel cycles
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CANDU High Fuel Efficiency & Flexibility
• Lowest uranium consumption/unit of energy supplied• CANDU can utilize:
Natural uranium
Enriched uranium
Recovered uranium
Mixed oxides
Thorium
Actinide waste
CANDU Fuel-Capability Uniqueness:
9
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Advanced Nuclear Power
Next generation designs
Integral Fast Reactors: allow the nuclear fuel cycle to be closed ‘burn’ most the nuclear fuel waste turn waste liability into an asset
Thorium Accelerator-Driven System: sub-critical fission through the constant
introduction of fast neutrons into the reactor core
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Advanced Nuclear Power
Challenges for implementation Proliferation and safety Skepticism Difficulty to assess the trade-offs between benefits and
risks Industry inertia Political stalemate: but China and
India are plowing ahead
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400 – 800 GWe Business as usual, open fuel cycle
1200 GWe by 2030 / 7000 GWe by 2050 Accelerated alternative scenario Only made possible by closing fuel
cycle
Commercial demos IFR by 2020 & Th-ADS by 2030 Multilateral initiative scale of ITER
The path towards sustainability
Nuclearwaste
2020 2030 2040 2050
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2.5 billion energy-poor people
Plastic Organic PV with Magnesium batteries
Electricity Access for All
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Off-Grid Electricity Access
Organic Photovoltaics (OPV) as an illustrative example PV technologies in development form an ecosystem from
silicon-based photovoltaics to thin films and emerging next-generation nanotechnology concepts
They in turn are a part of a larger system with the potential to be integrated within smart micro-grids, along other local renewable resources
The thin film family: amorphous silicon, copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), cadmium telluride (CdTe), organic thin films and dye-sensitised integrated photovoltaic
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Off-Grid Electricity Access
OPV
OPV has the potential to become one of the lowest- cost thin-film alternatives to the currently dominant silicon photovoltaic technology, due to their potential for low-cost, high-speed processing
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The context
Q (kWh)
Price ($)
500 c/kWh
10c / kWh
Urban Scale
SubsistencePower
Niche
50 c/kWh
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Low WTP : High kWh useHigh WTP : Low kWh use
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High WTP, Low kWh
2.5 billion people without electricity (500 million households)
@$200/system, $100B Cost of systems being purchased now in
Haiti
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Low Cost Innovations: Critical Pathways for Human Development Goals
Flexible, Portable, Light-weight and Resilient.Attractive Price.
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Solutions
Plastic PV +
Battery
Solar-Thermal
Solar-Hydrogen
Biogas/Biomas
s
Wind + Battery
Lighting
Communication Tools
Refrigeration
TV
Small Businesses
Cooking
Water-heating
Energy
intensity
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Beyond OPV: Micro-grids
Off-Grid Electricity Access
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2030 500,000,000 households
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Medium WTP, Medium kWh
Replace Si based PV in applications such as:• Water pumps• Refugee camps• Military forward bases
($ > 100+/gallon delivered diesel)
• Distributed sensors (rugged for deployment)
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Realistic Partnership Potential
Business/ Industry
Civil Society
Government International Organizations
Bosch
BASF
Mitsubishi
ENI (Italian oil)
Konarka
Nano-C
Digicel
TERI
En+Co
Acumen Fund
Oxfam
KIVA + others
Government of India
Militaries
CIDA, DFID, USAid, GIZ
Other developing country gov. partners
UNFCCC (NAMAs)
UNHCR
Red Cross/Crescent
Development Banks
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Timelines
2010 2014 2020
2015
2015 2030
2012 2020 2024
Generation
Storage (batteries)
Diffusion
Innovation
Diffusion
InnovationLead Mg Li+M.F.Cell H2
Si Organic Nano
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Implementation:Off-Grid Electricity Access
Near-term Identify partners, align finances R&D, efficiency increases in Organic Photovoltaics
Within 5 Years Finances in place/business models developed Policy framework and incentives in place Societal acceptance and scale-up of production
Within 20 years Expansion of market next-generation Organic Photovoltaics
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Rapid Urban Population Growth = Increasing
Mobility Needs
Air Quality GHG Emission Congestion
6 Billion
2005
3 Billion
2030
Additional 3 Billion People!
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Shanghai, China
Jakarta, Indonesia
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Emerging Innovations
House
InformationThroughMobile Phone
Destination
Mass Transport Personal Vehicles
Electric Bus, Trains
Electric Cars & Bicycles
One Subscription
‘We Want Access, Not Ownership’
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Enabling Technology
Advanced Lithium Ion
Flow Battery
ICT (smart-phones,
GPS)
Cars, Bicycles
Bus, Fleets
Integrating Information
Access
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6 Billion people in urban centres by 2025
Buildings emit 7.5 Gt CO2 or equivalent 1.5 billion cars
Buildings
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Need an intelligent infrastructure that can accommodate renewable energy solutions:
• Matching load with renewable energy availability
• Electrification of transportation
Knowledge is literally power• Ability to influence future construction &
design• Ability to influence behaviour now
Smart Urbanization
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Smart Urbanization
Smart Grids
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Smart Urbanization
The growth of the electrification of transportation and the expansion of ICT will add stresses on the
existing electricity distribution and supply infrastructure
Set of challenges in electricity transmission and distribution
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Smart Urbanization
Superconductors offer opportunities to dramatically increase the capacity and efficiency of power transmission with a much lower physical footprint
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Smart Urbanization will require planning supported by:
- Smart Grid technologies integrated through ICT - Electrification of Transport- ICT to enable mobility in dense urban
environments - Superconducting technologies for reliable
transmission in dense urban cores
Smart Urbanization:Conclusions
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Equinox Energy 2030: Summary
69
• An energy ‘ecosystem’ view to approaching possible, low carbon technologies
• Potential pathways identified to help research, development and implementation of long-term solutions
• Technical details help convey the complexities, challenges and opportunities posed by a few transitional technological systems.
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Wat
erlo
o In
stitu
te fo
r Sus
tain
able
Ene
rgy
Paths to a Sustainable Life Quality
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How do we manage the big risks? Not to focus on regulations for helmets!
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For follow up and contact information:
Jatin Nathwani, PhD, P.Eng.Professor and Ontario Research Chair in Public Policy for
Sustainable Energy Executive Director, Waterloo Institute for Sustainable
EnergyFaculty of Engineering and Faculty of Environment200 University Avenue WestWaterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1
519 888 4567 ext [email protected]: 416 735 6262
Waterloo Institute for Sustainable Energy519 888 4618www.wise.uwaterloo.ca
The Waterloo Institute for Sustainable Energy (WISE)