jasmine risking methodology - october 2008

8/3/2019 Jasmine Risking Methodology - October 2008

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Jasmine Project

Judy Module & Riser PlatformRisk Assessments

October 2008


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Identify

Risk RegisterListing of risks with initial impact

assessment and mitigation plan

Mitigation & Monitoring PlanDocuments the risks, mitigation plan,

ownership, and planned review points.

ConocoPhillips - Risk Management

Plan

Assess

Implement

Four Steps Four Products

Quantitative AssessmentFit for purpose by stage & size.Primary product is Contingency

Breakdown Report (CBR)

Risk Management PlanDocuments who, what, when, & how

Risk Management will apply to each project


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NM to add slide showing who was involved


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Checklist for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA )

A risk register is developed and directly linked to the risk assessment

The project schedule is linked to the cost model

Variances (margin of error) are determined for cost elements and

schedule task durations

Identified risks are assessed (probability and impact to cost and/orschedule)

Correlations established for cost elements, schedule durations and risks

All work is time stamped, documented

Goal - Clear understanding of the impact risks will have to project costs

and schedule milestones


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Capital Cost Breakdown

Premised CostEstimate

and

Schedule(no contingency)

Estimate Variances

Sched. Risk EventsCost Risk Events

Sources ofContingency

TotalCost

Estimate

Escalation

The initial cost estimate andschedule are based on

static parameters: a fixed basis ofdesign, and other

common assumptions

Risk assessment layers in dynamic events : schedule delays, design

basis changes, etc

Escalation is the final layer

Design Allowance


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Estimate Variance Cost / Schedule

Variances represent the margin of error on cost premiseelements and schedule durations and are expressed as a

range around the target value. Variances are determined

with the assumption of a fixed scope and schedule.


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Judy Module Cost Input Template

Cost ID Cost Description Cost Type Total cost LoadingDistribution

shape Min (%) Likely (%) Max (%)BFN Brownfield Labor 37,000,000 Normal Triangle 93% 100% 150%BFS Brownfield Labor 11,200,000 Spread Triangle 93% 100% 150%T1N Topside 1 (wellheads) Labor 65,999,993 Normal Triangle 76% 100% 150%T1S Topside 1 (wellheads) Labor 39,900,000 Spread Triangle 88% 100% 125%T2N Topside 2 (accomodation) Labor 45,499,995 Normal Triangle 70% 100% 150%T2S Topside 2 (accomodation) Labor 24,200,000 Spread Triangle 88% 100% 125%J1N Jacket 1 (wellheads) Labor 51,599,995 Normal Triangle 87% 100% 150%J1S Jacket 1 (wellheads) Labor 18,400,000 Spread Triangle 77% 100% 131%J2N Jacket 2 (accomodation) Labor 29,900,000 Normal Triangle 85% 100% 150%J2S Jacket 2 (accomodation) Labor 8,800,000 Spread Triangle 77% 100% 131%PN Pipeline Labor 46,000,005 Normal Triangle 89% 100% 187%PS Pipeline Labor 11,000,000 Spread Triangle 89% 100% 187%BN Bridge Labor 5,400,000 Normal Triangle 93% 100% 153%

BS Bridge Labor 1,700,000 Spread Triangle 93% 100% 153%FLOT Flotel Labor 88,000,000 Normal Triangle 87% 100% 175%OWNER Owners Labor 103,000,000 Normal Triangle 92% 100% 174%

587,599,988


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Riser Platform Cost Input Template

Cost ID Cost Description Cost Type Total cost LoadingDistribution

shape Min (%) Likely (%) Max (%)JWHTSN JASMINE WELLHEAD TOPSIDES Expenses 55,929,887 Normal Triangle 76% 100% 150%JWHTSS JASMINE WELLHEAD TOPSIDES Expenses 33,812,162 Spread Triangle 88% 100% 125%JWHJN JASMINE WELLHEAD JACKET Expenses 43,775,060 Normal Triangle 77% 100% 131%JWHJS JASMINE WELLHEAD JACKET Expenses 15,609,713 Spread Triangle 85% 100% 150%ATSN ACCOMIDATION TOPSIDES Expenses 38,662,571 Normal Triangle 70% 100% 150%ATSS ACCOMIDATION TOPSIDES Expenses 20,563,391 Spread Triangle 88% 100% 125%AJN ACCOMIDATION JACKET Expenses 25,362,708 Normal Triangle 85% 100% 150%AJS ACCOMIDATION JACKET Expenses 7,464,610 Spread Triangle 77% 100% 131%JBN JASMINE BRIDGE Expenses 4,426,402 Normal Triangle 93% 100% 153%JBS JASMINE BRIDGE Expenses 1,393,497 Spread Triangle 93% 100% 153%RPTSN RISER PLATFORM TOPSIDES Expenses 106,215,094 Normal Triangle 76% 100% 150%RPTSS RISER PLATFORM TOPSIDES Expenses 56,492,429 Spread Triangle 88% 100% 125%RPJN RISER PLATFORM JACKET Expenses 42,546,753 Normal Triangle 77% 100% 131%

RPJS RISER PLATFORM JACKET Expenses 14,182,251 Spread Triangle 85% 100% 150%RPBN RISER PLATFORM TO JUDY BRIDGE Expenses 8,161,442 Normal Triangle 93% 100% 153%RPBS RISER PLATFORM TO JUDY BRIDGE Expenses 2,402,030 Spread Triangle 93% 100% 153%EPLN 3-PHASE EXPORT P/L JASMINE TO JUDY Expenses 39,109,922 Normal Triangle 89% 100% 187%EPLS 3-PHASE EXPORT P/L JASMINE TO JUDY Expenses 9,352,372 Spread Triangle 89% 100% 187%CCN COMMUNICATION CABLE Expenses 6,890,078 Normal Triangle 89% 100% 187%CCS COMMUNICATION CABLE Expenses 1,647,627 Spread Triangle 89% 100% 187%MODSN MOD. TO COMPLEX Expenses 36,846,473 Normal Triangle 93% 100% 150%MODSS MOD. TO COMPLEX Expenses 11,153,527 Spread Triangle 93% 100% 150%OWNER PROJECT OWNERS COSTS Expenses 107,956,522 Normal Triangle 92% 100% 174%FLOTEL FLOTEL Expenses 83,043,478 Normal Triangle 87% 100% 175%

773,000,000


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Schedule Variances

Schedule duration variances were applied to the benchmark durations per the indicative varianceranges from the performance forum for CNS projects, the ranges were applied by means of a template

to to the activites which came under the grouped headings of engineering, procurement, fabrication,installation and Hook-UP. The variance ranges were applied to both schedules activities as follows:

Phase Jacket Topsides Brownfield

Minus Plus Minus Plus Minus Plus

Engineering 12% 28% 17% 58% 8% 44%

Procurement 18% 42% 19% 62% 6% 53%

Fabrication 21% 78% 23% 115% 11% 25%

Installation 9% 120% 11% 73% 11% 93%

HUC 18% 218% 3% 203%

The schedule variances were applied uniformly to both schedule activity sets


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Risk Events

Risk Events:

Discrete events that may or may not happen based on their probability of occurrence. These events are applied in addition to the variance rangesestablished for schedule activities and cost elements. Quantification includesboth likelihood and impact assessments.

Risk Categories

Definition - What are you going to build (scope)

Technical - How hard will it be to do

Organization/Commercial - Who will do what we are going to do

Stakeholders - Who can influence what we are going to do and how


11/18

Neil to insert risk matrix


12/18


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Riser Platform Risk Events


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Risk Model Results Cost Comparison

DE 773,000,000Uplift to DE To P50

P10 805,284,248 4.18% -14.63%P50 943,270,198 22.03% 0.00%P90 1,108,482,177 43.40% 17.51%

Riser Platform ( Gross)

DE 587,599,988Uplift to DE To P50

P10 625,084,212 6.38% -13.41%P50 721,915,549 22.86% 0.00%P90 847,233,991 44.19% 17.36%

Judy Module ( Gross)


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Judy Module - First Production - Mean Exposure

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

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M 0 2

M 1 5

M 1 4 a

M 1 4 b

S 1 3

S 0 1

M 0 1

M 0 7 S

0 9

L P H I 2

M 0 3

T 0 7 B

D 0 1 S

1 0

L P H I 1

T 1 1

T 0 7 A

T 1 0

M 0 4

M 0 8

T 0 7 D

T 0 6

T 0 9 b

T 0 7 C

D 0 2

T 0 2

T 0 9 a

T 0 5

M 1 3 S

0 7 T 2 0

R o n 1

D a y s

Judy Module First Production

Start: First Production:Deterministic 19-Jun-12

P10 03-Jul-12

P50 23-Oct-12P90 18-Apr-13


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Riser Platform First Production

Riser Platform - First Production - Mean Exposure

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

M 0 2

M 1 4 a

M 0 1 S

0 1 S 1 3

S 0 9

M 0 7

M 1 4 b

S 1 0

T 0 7 B

M 0 3

L P H I 2

D 0 1

T 1 0

M 1 5

T 1 1

L P H I 1

T 0 7 E

D 0 2

M 0 4

T 0 6

M 0 8

T 0 7 C

M 1 3 S

0 7 T 0 2

T 0 5

T 2 0

C a s c 1

T 0 7 A

D a y s


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Next Steps

Complete concept selection Prepare risk assessment (single concept) for AFF gate

review and approval. review / update / validate cost variances review / update / validate schedule variances

review / update / validate risk event impacts review / validate cost and timing output ranges calculate escalation impact calculate currency of spend foreign exchange impact prepare Contingency Breakdown Report (CBR) corporate review with risking group