Japan’s Energy Transition at the crossroad

4 years after 3.11 Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

Lunch Debate: Fukushima four years laterMarch 4th-5th 2015, in the European Parliaments

March 4th – 5th, 2015Tetsunari IIDA

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

4 yeas after

3.11 Fukushima3.11 Fukushima

2

Over 120,000 refugees left behind

3Aircraft Monitoring by MEXT(Deposition amount of Cesium134 and 137) 3

“Under control”“Completely blocked”by Shinzo ABE

4

by Shinzo ABE

4

The reality

55

Reactor Bldg.

Turbine Bldg.

Contaminatedwater tank

Leakage

Sampling well

Cooling w

ater

Sampling well

Sea level

6

Contamination plume

Impermeable layer ?

level

6

The reality

Ice wall

The reality

8

15 – 30 million m3

The reality

• Small improvements

• Big mess

9(画像) WSJ

• Big mess

• Spreading chaos

9

Spreading chaos

1. “ABE backlash” and “Shock doctrine”

2. All nuclear policy under METI’s governance

3. Corrupted policy design under METI

4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof

5. Complicating “waste issue”

6. “Odd situation” over radiation

7. Difficulty in refugees’ future

8. Media control10

300 32 11512192005

….but, Abe Administration has come,

119 21 30814182009

294 31 5712182012 54

11291 35 7325102014 41

“ABE-backlash” as “Shock doctrine”

• 2012.12 Strong will to resume nuclear

• 2013.1 ~ Top sales for nuclear export

• 2014.4 New Energy Policy with Nuclear

• 2014.6 Replace NRA committee member

• 2014.7 The first nuke (Sendai) passed NRA

• 2014.12 Local governments’ agreement

• 2015 summer The first nuke restart after 3.11 ?12

“ABE’s jigsaw puzzle”, trick for nuclear revival

1. Cleverly devised effort for nuclear restart

2. Changing public perception

3.Manipulating electricity tariff

13

4. Nuclear FIT (CfD)

5. Relaxing nuclear liability

6. Positive attitude for HLW issue

7. Still stick to “nuclear fuel cycle” myth

Public opinion for nuclear

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2006More nuclear

1414

2011

2013

Just keep

Phase-out

June

March(Source)2006;Japanese Gov., 2011&2013: NHK

Cost of nuclearYen/kWhNuclear cost revised

at compensation of

50 billion USD

1515Nuke Coal GasWindon off Geo Hydro

Now 110 B$(9.5 yen/kWh)

must be more

Paradigm change about nuclear

Before 3.11 After 3.11

Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply security

Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply security

More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply risk

More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply risk

1616

Supply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly

Supply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly

Supply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market

Supply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market

New trend in Justice : the case of Fukui

17

New trend in Justice : the case against TEPCO

18

All the nuclear has shut dow

n

20 25 30

Nuclear Power (TWh/month)

3.115.5

9.15

on Sept.15

0 5 10 15

1004

1006

1008

1010

1012

1102

1104

1106

1108

1110

1112

1202

1204

1206

1208

1210

1212

1302

1304

1306

1308

1310

Nuclear Power (TWh/month)

19

Energy saving – the largest alternative to nuclear

20

・Endurance・Efficiency

Some “evolution” in energy policy

・Endurance

・Commanding

・Lack of supply

・More power

・Bad for economy

・Efficiency

・Nega-watt

・Peak management

・DSM

・Good for business2121

25

35

45

（G

W）

Rinsing renewables power - the 4th revolution

-5

5

15

25

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Data from: GWEA, IAEA, Photon, Platts, 22

Sun rising again, and where

8

10

12

GW

/Ann

ual

JPGECH

230

2

4

6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GW

/Ann

ual

FIT (house)

FIT (all)

FIT (2005~)

FIT (2000~)

Increasing EL tariff, decreasing PV cost in Japan

(source)Japan Renewable Foundation24

Sun rising again1st Oct. 2014

FIT Suspended

25th Jan. 2015

Regional CAP25

Rising community power in Japan

Niceko

Yamagata

Toyama

Bizen

Takarazuka

Kyotango

Takayama

Obihiro

Akita

Shiragami

IwateNiigata

Aizu Soma

Setagaya

Chofu

SaitamaIIDA city

Odawara

Bizen

Shizuoka NaganoObama

Yamaguchi

Kumamoto

Minami-SomaHiroshima

IwateNiigata

26

Rising community power : Fukushima

27

28

Old regime New paradigm

Centralized Small distributed

Monopoly Community ownership

At the crossroad

Monopoly Community ownership

Hierarchy Network

Fossil & nuclearRenewable &

Energy efficiency

(Numerical) Economic growth

Sufficiency, justice, welfare

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