january 10-11 2009: the winter storm that “clipped” the tri-state patrick maloit richard castro...
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January 10-11 2009: January 10-11 2009: The Winter Storm that “Clipped” The Winter Storm that “Clipped”
the Tri-Statethe Tri-State
Patrick Maloit
Richard Castro
NOAA/NWS
Upton, NY
OverviewOverview
• Warning Decision Making ProcessWarning Decision Making Process• 12z cycle 9 January12z cycle 9 January
• 00z cycle 10 January – what changed00z cycle 10 January – what changed
• 12z cycle 10 January – what changed12z cycle 10 January – what changed
• What Actually Happened ?What Actually Happened ?
Warning Decision Making Warning Decision Making ProcessProcess
• How soon is too soon for a How soon is too soon for a warning?warning?• Is the event on a weekend? Is the event on a weekend?
• Once a watch/warning is up, how Once a watch/warning is up, how much do you change it?much do you change it?• How much and what has changed How much and what has changed
from the previous thinkingfrom the previous thinking
Warning Decision Making Warning Decision Making ProcessProcess
• Looking at the dataLooking at the data• Are the features well captured Are the features well captured
by the observational network?by the observational network?
• Model comparison/confidenceModel comparison/confidence• All about similarities and All about similarities and
differencesdifferences
The Afternoon Forecast – 9th• Already had Watch in effect for entire
CWA
• The fact it was a weekend necessitated going to Warnings this package
• Thermal Profile was warning/advisory line delineator
The Afternoon Forecast – 9th• Winter Storm Warnings
–All of Southern Connecticut, The Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Nassau County, Northern Suffolk County, NW City Boroughs (including Queens)
• Winter Weather Advisories–Southern Suffolk County and Brooklyn + Staten
Island
The Morning Forecast – 10th• Based on thermal profiles, adjusted all
Long Island and NYC, as well as Southern NE NJ Zones to an Advisory
• Warmer thermal profile also resulted in slight decrease in amounts