james c. spohrer future of universities 2012
TRANSCRIPT
© 2012 IBM Corporation
IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
The Future of Universities:A Service Science Perspective
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected] Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)
Stanford Special Event “Building the Entrepreneurial University” Triple Helix Research Group at H-STARTuesday Nov.13, 2012
Working together to build a Smarter Planet
2 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Today’s Talk
Future of Universities
Building the Entrepreneurial University
IBM 101
Service Science Perspective
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
IBM Smarter Planet
IBM SSME Centennial Icon of Progress
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Four Missions
Knowledge Transfer (Teaching)
Knowledge Creation (Research)
Knowledge Application (Entrepreneurship)
Knowledge Integration (Bridge Silos)
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Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development
“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
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What are the benefits of top-ranked universities?% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities
Japan
ChinaGermany
France
United KingdomItaly
Russia SpainBrazilCanada
IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea
NetherlandsTurkey
Sweden
y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% g
loba
l G
DP
% top 500 universities
Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankingshttp://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html
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What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills?
…But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M
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Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs: Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Nation
State/Province
City/Region
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City
“The future is already here (at universities),it is just not evenlydistributed.”
“The best way topredict the futureis to (inspire the nextgeneration of studentsto) build it better.”
InnovationsUniversities/RegionsCalculus (Cambridge/UK)Physics (Cambridge/UK)Computer Science (Columbia/NY)Microsoft (Harvard/WA)Yahoo (Stanford/CA)Google (Stanford/CA)Facebook (Harvard/CA)
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IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe
>100 acquisition in decade
IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide
2011 Financials Revenue - $ 106.9B Net Income - $ 15.9B EPS - $ 13.44 Net Cash - $16.6B
22% of IBM’s revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 11% in 2011
Number 1 in patent generation for 19 consecutive years ; 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011
More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office
5 Nobel Laureates
9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer
“Let’s Build a Smarter Planet"
The Smartest Machine On Earth
100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011
IBM’s Leadership Changes
55% of IBM’s Workforce is New to the company in the last 5 years
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What’s UP with IBM? University Programs
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Most people say, “IBM makes computers”
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Those in-the-know say, “IBM is helping to build a Smarter Planet…”
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A Smarter Planet is built from smarter service systems…
INSTRUMENTED
We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything.
INTERCONNECTED
People, systems and objects can communicate
and interact with each other in entirely new
ways.
INTELLIGENT
We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results
by predicting and optimizing
for future events.
WORKFORCE
PRODUCTS
SUPPLY CHAIN
COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS
IT NETWORKS
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City challenge: buildings and transportation
Ryan Chin:Smart Cities
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Streetline: Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent
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Example: Streetline
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Neonatal ICU: Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent
IBM GMU External Relations 201217 IBM GMU External Relations 201217
A city is essentially a system of service systems—transportation, healthcare, public safety and education.
To enable a Smarter City, IBM is working to improve the quality & efficiency of service systems and how they operate and function.
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Cities: land-population-energy-carbon
Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities
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Four commandments for cities of the future: Eduardo Paes at TED2012
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SC IOC as a Platform for Innovation
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23
Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.
SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press in Wall Street Journal, Forbes and Bloomberg
- in
Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th
Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th
SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd
SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd
North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th
North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th
apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcampapply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp
Exclusive Networking andMentoring eventExclusive Networking andMentoring event
North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, [email protected] Programs lead: Dawn Tew, [email protected]
24 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
IBM University Programs:What We Do: The “6 R’s” (not to be confused with 3 R’s)
1. ResearchResearch awards focus on grand challenge problems and big bets
https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/university/research
2. ReadinessAccess to IBM tools, methods, and course materials to develop skills
https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/university/academicinitiative
3. RecruitingInternships and full-time positions working to build a smarter planet
http://www.ibm.com/jobs
4. RevenueImprove performance, the university as a complex enterprise (city within city)
http://www.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/bcs_education.html
5. ResponsibilityCommunity service provides access to IBMers expertise/resources
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ibmgives/
6. RegionsRegional innovation ecosystems – incubators, entrepreneurship, jobs
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/governmentalprograms/innovissue.html
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Up-SkillCycle
University-Region1University-Region1
University-Region2University-Region2
= New Venture
= Acquisition
= High-Growth Acquisition/ New IBM BU (Growing)
= High-Productivity/ Mature IBM BU (Shrinking)
= IBMer moving from mature BU to acquisition
= IBMer moving intoIBMer on Campus role(help create graduateswith Smarter-Planet skills,help create Smarter Planetoriented new ventures;Refresh skills
= Graduates withSmarter Planet skills
IBMIBM
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Digital Immigrant vs Digital Native
Born: 1988Graduated College: 2011
Born: 2012Enters College: 2030
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2030 Transportation: Self-driving cars
Steve Mahan:Test “Driver”
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2030 Water
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2030 Manufacturing
Ryan Chin:Urban Mobility
Baxter: Building the Future
Maker-Bot: Replicator 2
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2030 Energy
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2030 ICT
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Example: Leading Through Connections with…Universities Collaborate with IBM Research to Design Watson for the Grand Challenge of Jeopardy !
Assisted in the development of the Open Advancement of Question-Answering Initiative (OAQA) architecture and methodology
Pioneered an online natural language question answering system called START, which provided the ability to answer questions with high precision using information from semi-structured and structured information repositories
Worked to extend the capabilities of Watson, with a focus on extensive common sense knowledge
Focused on large-scale information extraction, parsing, and knowledge inference technologies
Worked on a visualization component to visually explain to external audiences the massively parallel analytics skills it takes for the Watson computing system to break down a question and formulate a rapid and accurate response to rival a human brain
Provided technological advancement enabling a computing system to remember the full interaction, rather than treating every question like the first one - simulating a real dialogue
Explored advanced machine learning techniques along with rich text representations based on syntactic and semantic structures for the Watson’s optimization
Worked on information retrieval and text search technologies
http://w3.ibm.com/news/w3news/top_stories/2011/02/chq_watson_wrapup.html
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2030 Buildings: Recycled to be stronger, safer, cleaner
China Broad Group:30 Stories in 15 Days
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2030 Retail & Hospitality
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2030 Finance & Business
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2030 Health
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2030 Education: Watch one, do one, teach one…
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2030 Government
Four measures
Innovativeness
Equity– Improve
weakestlink
Sustainability
Resiliency
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Competitive Parity – Achieved.
The NFL has spent the last two decades touting its parity—the idea that any team can win on any given Sunday (or Monday or Thursday). But this year, parity has truly run wild.
… here's the wackiest thing: Through six weeks, 11 of the NFL's 32 teams are 3-3. The Journal asked the statistical gurus of Massey-Peabody Analytics to run a coin-flip simulation…
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2030 and Beyond…. Government, Health, Education, Finance, etc.
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Service Innovators
ISSIP = International Society of Service Innovation Professionals
T-shaped Professionals– Depth
– Breadth
Register at:– ISSIP.org
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T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth
BREADTH
DE
PT
H
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
Many culturesMany disciplines
Many systems(understanding & communications)
Deep in one d
iscip
line
Deep in one sys
tem
Deep in one cu
lture
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Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & BreadthSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities
transportation & supply chain water &
waste
food &products
energy & electricity
building & construction
healthcare& family
retail &hospitality banking
& finance
ICT &cloud
education &work
citysecure
statescale
nationlaws
social sciences
behavioral sciences
management sciences
political sciences
learning sciences
cognitive sciences
system sciences
information sciences
organization sciences
decision sciences
run professions
transform professions
innovate professions
e.g., econ & law
e.g., marketing
e.g., operations
e.g., public policy
e.g., game theory and strategy
e.g., psychology
e.g., industrial eng.
e.g., computer sci
e.g., knowledge mgmt
e.g., stats & design
e.g., knowledge worker
e.g., consultant
e.g., entrepreneur
stake
holders Customer
Provider
Authority
Competitors
resources
People
Technology
Information
Organizations
change History
(Data Analytics)
Future(Roadmap)
value
Run
Transform(Copy)
Innovate(Invent)
Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)
Observe Resource Access (As-Is)
Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)
Realize Value (To-Be)
disciplines
systems
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The New Normal: Smarter Systems
Computational System
Smarter TechnologyRequires investment roadmap
Service Systems: Stakeholders & Resources
1. People 2. Technology3. Shared Information4. Organizations
connected by win-win value propositions
Smarter Buildings, Universities, CitiesRequires investment roadmap
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A Framework for Global Civil Society
Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society.
– John Sexton, President NYU
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IBM Almaden Research Center, Silicon Valley/San Jose, CA
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In Conclusion: Two Books To Help Us All Prepare For Change
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Thank-You! Questions?
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion & Director, IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)[email protected]
“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov“Think global, act local.” – Geddes
49 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations
A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)1. Transportation & supply chain
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment
3. Food & products manufacturing
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)
7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)
8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)
9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)
10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)
11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)
12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)
13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
0/19/02/7/42/1/1
7/6/1
1/1/0
5/17/27
1/0/2
24/24/1
2/20/24
7/10/3
5/2/2
3/3/10/0/0
1/2/2
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
* = US Labor % in 2009.
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
50 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
University: Four Missions
Knowledge– 1. Transfer (Teaching)
– 2. Creation (Research)
– 3. Application (Benefits)
• Commerce/Entrepreneurship• Governance/Policymaking
– 4. Re-Integration (Challenge)
• Innovativeness, Equity• Sustainability, Resilience
Nested, Networked Holistic Service Systems– Flows
– Development
– Governance
Nation
State/Province
City/Metro
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
Third Mission (Apply to Create Value) is about U-BEEs = University-Based
Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
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Economic Shift in National Economies
Daryl Pereira/Sunnyvale/IBM@IBMUS,
42%6433 3 1.4Germany
37%261163 2.1Bangladesh
19%201070 1.6Nigeria
45%6728 5 2.2Japan
64%692110 2.4Russia
61%661420 3.0Brazil
34%391645 3.5Indonesia
23%7623 1 5.1U.S.
35%23176014.4India
142%29224925.7China
40yr ServiceGrowth
S%
G%
A %
Labor% WW
Nation
World’s Large Labor ForcesA = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Service
20102010
NationMaster.com, International Labor OrganizationNote: Pakistan, Vietnam, and Mexico now larger LF than Germany
US shift to service jobs
(A) Agriculture:Value from harvesting nature
(G) Goods:Value from making products
(S) Service:Value from
IT augmented workers in smarter systemsthat create benefits for customers
and sustainably improve quality of life.
52 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Growth of Service Revenue at IBM
SOFTWARE
SYSTEMS(AND FINANCING)
SERVICES
2010 Pretax Income Mix Revenue Growth by Segment
Services
Software
Systems
44%
17%
39%
IBM Annual Reports
What do IBM Service Professionals Do? Run IT & enterprise systems for customers,help Transform customer processes to best practices, and Innovate with customers.
53 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
California Human Development Report 2011:Measuring quality-of-life…. http://w
ww
.measureofam
erica.org/docs/AP
ortraitOfC
A.pdf
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Smarter City Intelligent Operations Center (SC IOC)
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Measuring Impact
SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment– Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR
• Key was tools to model customers & IBM better• Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures• Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent)• Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems)
– External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities
– External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications
– External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations
– External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions
– External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation)
Service Research, a Portfolio Approach– 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s)
– 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers)
– 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion)
– 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up)
– 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums)
– 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)
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Who I am (http://www.service-science.info/archives/2233)
Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009– Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university)
– 6 R’s: Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility, Regions
– Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”)
– Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs Founding Director of IBM's first Service Research group from 2003-2009
– Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
– 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards
– Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications
– I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines• I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D)
– Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline)– Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool)
• I advocate for ISSIP (“one of the founding fathers”)• Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010)
Other background (late 90’s and before)– Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley
– Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s)
– Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s)
– B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)
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What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities…
Kurzweilai.net
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Many culturesMany disciplines
Many systems(understanding & communications)
Deep
in o
ne d
iscip
line
Deep
in o
ne sy
stem
Deep
in o
ne cu
lture