jakub karlec - intuition over analytics
DESCRIPTION
Web analytics is far from perfect. Relying too much on it can slow or even kill your business. Decisions based on expert intuition can be more effective. Moreover, you will never change history, if you rely solely on analytics. So, do you have the balls to embrace intuition–driven design?TRANSCRIPT
Intuition over analytics
Conversion optimization…
…has limits and drawbacks
I failed because I focused on the wrong thing
Facebook Login Reduces Ecommerce Sales(Case Study)
Without Facebook Connect:Conversions ↑ 3%Revenues ↑ $10,000
“The a/b test just shows, that THIS version of form is bad, not that Facebook login reduces sales.”
Misinterpretation of analytical data is a common mistake
Not the tools,but the people matter
Biases and assumptions
“A person can make himself happy, or miserable, regardless of what is actually happening outside.”— Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi
Never trust anyone with a mortgage
Good data in wrong hands can do a f*** harm.
Intuition–driven designvsAnalytics–driven design
You can't measure everything
Segmentation
Can you measure the impact of shutting display advertising down?
Long term effects
Overhauling Facebook’s user interface
You can’t make strategic business decisions based on short term AB tests
Benefits of intuition–driven design
You will never change history, if you rely solely on analytics data.
“True leaders have the ability to make the right decision even with limited information.”— Warren Bennis
It's way cheaper and faster
Waiting for relevant and statistically significant data can do more harm than living without analytics at all.
The story of Marissa Mayer
When designers wanted to change the blue colour on Google's homepage, they had to do multivariate testing of 41 shades of blue to see which one performs best.
"[…] data eventually becomes a crutch for every decision, paralyzing the company and preventing it from making any daring design decisions."– Doug Bowman
“We let the math and the data govern how things look and feel.”— Marissa Mayer
Year after Mayer took over Yahoo, the company’s stock price was up 100 percent.
“True leaders have the ability to make the right decision even with limited information.”— Warren Bennis