j-soft power weekly brief #22
TRANSCRIPT
7/31/2019 J-Soft Power Weekly Brief #22
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Editor’s NoteBy Rui Faro Saraiva PhD Candidate at Osaka School of International Public Policy
This weekly digest of news is supposed
to focus on the Japanese Foreign Policy
Soft Power dimension. Nevertheless
this week we underline a matter related
with pure domestic policies, like the
passing of the bills to double the
consumption tax rate, setting the stage
for a mass defection from the ruling
Democratic Party of Japan. Some
International Relations theories relate
the influence of domestic politics with
the formulation and implementation of foreign policy. The same is happening
when we consider Japan and its lack of
leadership. While observing Japanese
Soft Power assets, and I’m not referring
to Manga or Anime… but for example
how Japan implements its ODA (look
into Gemba’s pledge of 6 billion dollars
for ODA over the next 3 years), no
matter how much resources Japan
actually holds, it also needs a strong
leadership to strategically use and
implement those same resources. If PM
Noda some weeks ago reshuffled his
cabinet sacking some ministers, this
week Noda implemented a controversial
tax law at the cost of alienating one-fifthof his own party’s members of
parliament. 57 lawmakers in the ruling
Democratic Party of Japan voted no,
and former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa
signaled he may leave the party. If he
takes more than 50 followers with him,
it could endanger the party’s majority.
Noda’s policy in this regard is trying to
face the huge nation’s debt, but the
result it is also a divided party, a divided
country, and a weak leadership. All of
t h i s w i l l p r o b a b l y a f f e c t t h e
implementation of Japanese Foreign
Policy, which is facing huge challenges
not only due to the current economic
stand of the country but also becauseof the power shift to Asia with wide
implications in the regional and global
order.
J-SOFT POWER
WEEKLY BRIEF Nº22
Photo of the week:
Prime Minister
Yoshihiko Noda,
center, and other
Cabinet ministers
stand after the bill
to raise the
consumption taxrate was approved
by the Lower
House on June 26.
(AJW Asahi)
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Crown prince visits school in
Thailand
“Crown Prince Naruhito, who is on a
w e e k l o n g t o u r t o T h a i l a n d ,
Cambodia and Laos, visited a
Japanese school in Bangkok on
Tuesday morning. Some of the
students waved Japanese national
flags as they welcomed the crownprince. The school, one of the
b iggest Japanese schools in
Thailand, has about 2,700 primary
and middle school students. On
Monday, the crown prince attended a
welcome ceremony and met with
Tha i Pr ime Min iste r Y ing luck
Shinawatra. He later visited the royal
palace and met with Thai King
Bhumibol Adulyadej..”
(Yomiuri)
Truman grandson to visit A-bombsites
“A grandson of Harry Truman, the
U.S. president who made the
decision to drop atomic bombs on
Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, is
expected to attend peace memorial
ceremonies in the two cities in
August for the first time, it has been
learned. (…) Daniel plans to visit
Hiroshima's Peace Memorial Park
and Peace Memorial Museum on
Aug. 3. He is also scheduled to meet
with Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui
and atomic bomb victims before
a t t e n d i n g t h e c e r e m o n y t o
commemorate the U.S. bombing of
the city on Aug. 6, 1945. Daniel will
then travel to Nagasaki to attend a
peace ceremony to be held there on
Aug. 9. Sadako Legacy, which invited
Daniel to the ceremonies, is led by
Masahiro Sasaki. He is the brother of
Sadako Sasaki, a Hiroshima girl who
was 2 years old when the city wasbombed and died 10 years later. She
is known for her perseverance in
folding paper cranes as a prayer for
her recovery and was the inspiration
for the statue dedicated to children
killed by the atomic bomb located in
Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park.
Daniel said he wanted to know how
the lives of those who were bombed
were affected by the U.S. decision to
use the nuclear weapon. He decided
to visit Japan to understand thehistorical event from the viewpoint of
the atomic bomb victims.”
(Yomiuri)
66% of Taiwanese say Japan ties
deepened since quake
“A recent poll shows 66 percent of
Taiwanese people fee l ties with
Japan have deepened since the
March 2011 ear thquake and
tsunami, the Taipei office of Japan's
Interchange Association has said.
After Taiwan offered Japan donationsand relief goods worth a total of
about 20 billion yen, among the
largest from any country or region in
the world, Japanese people held a
number of events in Taiwan to show
their appreciation for the support.
‘The poll results seem to indicate
Japan's gratitude for the disaster
support was well communicated to
people in Taiwan,’ said an official of
the Taipei office of the association,
which acts as the de facto Japanese
embassy in the country. The poll alsoshowed 51 percent of respondents
plan to refrain from traveling to Japan
for the time being. (…) Asked about
the foreign country or region they like
most in the world, 41 percent picked
Japan, far above the 8 percent
figures given as responses in both
China and the United States. Japan
also topped the Taiwan list in a
previous poll two years ago. The
survey, commissioned to a private
research firm, was conductedbetween Jan. 30 and Feb. 22,
covering 1,009 people aged in their
20s through their 80s.”
(Yomiuri)
National security clause must be
deleted from law on atomic energy
“An addition to the Atomic Energy
Basic Law stating that Japan's
nuclear energy should contribute tonat iona l secur i ty has s t i r red
controversy. The amendment has
fueled speculations about its true
aim. Some wonder whether the
interpretation of the clause could be
stretched to open the way for nuclear
weapons development. Others
question whether the clause is aimed
at underscoring the effectiveness of
the development and use of atomic
power for nuclear power plants and
other purposes. Japan's three non-nuclear principles of not producing,
not possessing and not introducing
nuclear weapons form the core of its
national policy, and the nation's
successive administrations have
ruled out the possibility of the country
developing such weapons of mass
destruction. The basic law limits
research, development and use of
atomic energy strictly to peaceful
purposes, championing democratic,
independent and public disclosure
principles. As such, one cannot helpbut wonder whether the national
security clause is aimed at changing
Japan's basic policy on nuclear
energy. (…) The Atomic Energy Basic
Law was amended by incorporating
the clause into the appendix in the
law on the establishment of a nuclear
regulatory panel, which was passed
into law on June 20. The clause was
not in the original government-
sponsored bill. However, the ruling
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), thelargest opposition Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) and New Komeito
subsequently agreed to modify the
bill and enact it as lawmaker-initiated
legislation. At the time, the clause in
question was incorporated into the
appendix at the request of the LDP.
(…) South Korea responded to the
inclusion of the clause in the basic
law by saying, "We will watch the
true intention behind the amendment
and its future impact," against the
backdrop of such a persisting idea in
Japan. (…) Moreover, a phrase
stating Japan's space development
must be limited to peaceful purposes
w a s d e l e t e d f r o m t h e L a w
Concerning the Japan Aerospace
E x p l o r a t i o n A g e n c y i n i t s
amendments on June 20. The fact
that legislation relating to national
security has been passed into law
without sufficient discussions amid
po l i t i ca l con fus ion ove r the
consumption tax hike has raisedgrave concerns.”
(Editorial - Mainichi Daily News)
Japan pledges 6 billion dollars in
ODA over next 3 years
“Japan will provide a total of 6 billion
dollars in official development
assistance over three years from
fiscal 2013, Foreign Minister Koichiro
Gemba said at the U.N. Conferenceon Susta inab le Development,
dubbed Rio+20. Through the aid, the
nation will help developing countries
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damage from natural disasters and
introduce renewable energy. Gemba
said in a speech that Japan wishes
to share its disaster prevention
technologies and know-how with
developing countries to create
communities resistant to disasters.
Such knowledge was acquired from
the experience of the March 2011earthquake and tsunami, he added.
(…) He said Japan plans to send
about 10,000 experts to developing
countries over the next three years
to support their transition to a green
economy in which both economic
growth and environmental protection
are realized. A Japanese pavilion
was set up along the sidelines of the
Rio+20 conference to showcase the
country's reconstruction efforts after
the March 2011 disasters. In aseparate speech at the pavilion,
Gemba said the three hardest-hit
prefectures of Fukushima, Miyagi and
Iwate are striving to overcome their
hardships so they can stand on their
own feet again. It is also Japan's duty
to share the nation's knowledge,
experience and the process of
reconstruction with the rest of the
world, Gemba said. At the facility,
local government officials from the
three Tohoku prefectures showed
video footage of their reconstruction
efforts. They also introduced local
dishes and sake to visitors.”
(Yomiuri)
Japan's lower house approves
doubling of sales tax
“Japan's lower house voted Tuesday
to double the country's sales tax to
10 percent over three years in a bid
to rein in a bulging national debt as
an aging population burdens the
country's social security system. The
vote, however, shook Prime Minister
Yoshihiko Noda's grip on power
because of strong opposition from a
group within the ruling party led by
power broker Ichiro Ozawa that
believes the tax hike will weaken the
economy. Ozawa and his supporters
have threatened to bol t the
Democratic Party over the tax issue.
The bill passed easily by a vote of
363-96, with support coming fromthe two biggest opposition parties.
The bill must still pass the less
powerful upper house to become
law, which is expected. It calls for
raising the sales tax from 5 percent to
8 percent in 2014, and then to 10
percent in 2015.”
(FOX News)
Japan to Boost Defense in Pacific,
Minister Says
“Japan's new defense minister saidthe government is preparing to
enhance its air and sea defense
capabilities to protect islands and
waters in the nation's southwest, part
of the broad swath of the western
Pacific where China has increased its
maritime activities in recent years. (…)
Mr. Morimoto also said one of his
priorities as defense minister is to
push for policies that will strengthen
the bilateral alliance with the U.S.
"The most important task for peoplewho think about Japan's national
security and build its policy is making
the alliance even more reliable," he
said. Mr. Morimoto brings to the
embattled government of Prime
M i n i s t e r Y o s h i h i k o N o d a a
combination of a nonpolitical résumé
and first-class knowledge of national
security that has generated rare
excitement among the public. He
also comes with unapologetically
hawkish views on how Japan should
protect itself amid rising geopoliticaltensions in East Asia.”
(Wall Street Journal)
Philippines Foreign Secretary to visit
Japan
“Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del
Rosario will embark on his first official
working visit to Japan this week at
the invitati on of his Japanese
counterpart Foreign Minister Koichiro
Gemba, the Department of Foreign
Affairs (DFA) said today. (…) ‘Bothforeign ministers will discuss vital
issues relating to bilateral economic
relations, cooperation in the field of
maritime security, the Mindanao
peace process, as well as regional
issues such as regional security and
cooperation,’ the DFA said. Apart
from the bilateral meeting with
Gemba, Del Rosario will also call on
Deputy Prime Minister Katsuya
Okad a and meet with Japan
International Cooperation Agency(JICA) President Akihiko Tanaka and
officials of the Japan-Philippines
Parliamentarian Friendship League
(JPPFL), among others, to discuss
the advancement of bilateral relations
and exchange views on issues of
common interest.”
(PhilStar.com)
Japan makes deal with Russia to
reduce reliance on Middle East oil
“An agreement between Japan and
Russia to jointly develop a Siberian oil
field is expected to accelerate
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expansion of crude oil procurement
from that country and help diversify
Japan's supply of energy resources.
Japan relies on the Middle East for
more than 90 percent of crude oil
imports. Japan Oil, Gas and Metal
Nat ional Corp. and Russia's
Gazprom Neft announced last week
they would develop an oil field in
eastern Siberia, a region believed tohave abundant natural reserves. The
oil field is expected to yield of tens of
thousands of barrels a day, is
equivalent to 1 to 2 percent of
Japan's total crude oil imports. The
Japanese company is conducting
research in other parts of eastern
Siberia with the aim of development
agreements with other companies.’”
(Reuters)
Japan, South Korea, U.S. mustconsolidate security cooperation
“Bolstering cooperation between
Japan and South Korea, the weakest
link in the triangular relationship
between Japan, the United States
and South Korea, is certain to solidify
security cooperation between the
three countries and make it more
multilayered. The Maritime Self-
Defense Force and the navies of the
United States and South Koreaconducted a full-dress joint exercise
on Thursday and Friday in the Yellow
Sea off the southern coast of the
Korean Peninsula. (...) Although joint
war games have been carried out
frequently between Japan and the
United States, or between the United
States and South Korea, combined
exercises have rarely taken place
between Japan and South Korea.
Th is is ma inl y beca use Seou l,
apparently mindful of anti-Japanese
public sentiment linked to Japan's
past colonization of the Korean
Peninsula, has been reluctant to hold
military exercises with Tokyo. A
significant turning point, however,
was the March 2010 sinking of a
South Korean Navy ship in a torpedo
attack blamed on North Korea. There
was a surge in support for more
cooperation between Japan and
South Korea as demonstrated, for
instance, by the participation of SDF
personnel as observers in joint U.S.-South Korea exercises.”
(Yomiuri)
Japan, Vietnam to fight China’s
control of rare earths
“The world’s electronics and
automobile producers have been
chafi ng under Ch in a’s t rade
restrictions on its virtual monopoly on
the global supply of rare earth
minerals, and Japan and Vietnam aremoving to fight back. China currently
controls about 90 percent of the
world’s supply of rare earths, which
are minerals vital to the manufacture
o f m o d e r n e l e c t r o n i c s a n d
automotive parts, and Japan
currently imports 60 percent of what
China produces, which means Japan
has felt the pinch of China’s
tightening trade restrictions more
than any other country. Japan has
found an ally in Vietnam, a countrythat is thought to have vast reserves
of rare earths, which it is eager to
exploit. Last March, Japan, the
European Union, and the U.S. filed
an official complaint with the World
Trade Organization (WTO) on China’s
rare earth trade restrictions. China
claims that it only limits exports due
to the considerable environmental toll
of processing the minerals. The
plaintiffs in the WTO complaint feel
that the real reason for the
restrictions is to force foreign
companies to relocate their lucrative
manufacturing facilities to China,
where they are promised a more
stable supply of the vital minerals.”
(Japan Daily Press)
Korea, Japan set to sign their first
military agreement
“On a positive note, South Korea
and Japan are set to conclude their
first ever military agreement, a
Genera l Secu r i t y o f M i l i t a r y
Information Agreement (GSOMIA)
that would allow the two countries to
share intelligence on North Korea.
Japan’s got six Aegis destroyers and
10 early earning aircraft, and South
Korea’s got tons of HUMINT, so it
seems like a win-win. The Chosun
Ilbo notes, however, that some civic
groups and the political opposition
aren’t so keen on it, both due toJapan’s failure to deal with its past
and fear of dividing Asia into two
camps with China-Russia-North
Korea on one side and the United
States, South Korea and Japan on
the other.”
(Robert Koehler – The Marmot Hole)
Seismologists warn Japan against
nuclear restart
“Two prominent seismologists saidon Tuesday that Japan is ignoring the
safety lessons of last year 's
Fukushima crisis and warned against
restarting two reactors next month.
(...) Experts advising Japan's nuclear
industry had underestimated the
seismic threat, Mitsuhisa Watanabe,
a tectonic geomorphology professor
at Tokyo University, said at the same
news conference. (…) After an
earthquake in 2007 caused radiation
leaks at reactors north of Tokyo,Ishibashi said Japan was at risk of a
nuclear disaster following a large
earthquake, a warning that proved
prescient after Fukushima. While it is
imposs ib l e to p red i c t when
earthquakes will happen, Ishibashi
said on Tuesday the magnitude 9
quake last year made it more likely
"devastating" earthquakes would
follow.”
(Reuters)
Japanese politician and businessman
get Mexican honor
“Japanese lawmaker Hidenao
Nakagawa and Nissan Motor
Company honorary chairman Itaru
Koeda were awarded the Order of
the Aztec Eagle, Mexico's highest
honor for foreigners, on Tuesday, the
Mexican Embassy said. (...) The work
of Nakagawa and Koeda have
contributed to helping Japan and
Mexico enjoy a relationship that is
"dynamic and looks toward the
future," taking advantage of the
growing potential of the Asia-Pacific
region, Heller said in a statement.
The intense exchanges of the past
few years have helped strengthen
bilateral relations, Nakagawa, who is
chairman of the Mexico-Japan
Parliamentary Friendshp Federation,
said. The Japanese lawmaker said
he would continue to promote
cooperation between the countries.”
(Fox News Latino)
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Japan’s response to China’s rise
“For several decades, the Japanese have been concerned about
China’s rise, but in 2010 they became especially worried. Several
events in that year, including a clash between a Chinese fishing boat
and the Japanese coastguard in the disputed Senkaku Islands,
made the Japanese think that China was becoming more assertive
and, potentially, aggressive. By the end of 2010, Japanese officials,
experts and politicians had responded with a new strategy –
involving the creation of more mobile forces, a renewed emphasis on
the US alliance and an attempt to strengthen ties with other Asian
maritime powers. (…) The Japanese officials who deal with Beijing
believe that many Chinese diplomats would welcome a
rapprochement with Japan. After all, this year is the 40th anniversary
of the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
(...) However, Japanese officials do not expect a significantly warmer
relationship with Beijing, for two reasons. First, these days China’s
Ministry of Foreign Affairs seems to have little clout within the
Chinese system. Government departments such as the NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission, as well as state-owned oil
companies, the PLA and the Communist Party of China, often count
for much more. Some of these bodies could gain through a more
assertive approach leading to confrontation with Japan: the PLA
navy could more easily justify budget increases, whereas the oil
companies could boost their chances of drilling in disputed parts of
the East China Sea. Second, Japanese officials believe that the
nationalism of Chinese ‘public opinion’ – as expressed through the
blogosphere – is powerful enough to deter the country’s leaders
from seeking compromises on territorial disputes with neighbours.
(…) The Japanese worry about China’s military build-up. Last year,
Japan’s National Institute for Defence Studies produced the first of
what has now become a series of annual reports on China. (…)
From 2001 to 2010, China’s defence budget rose in real terms by
189 per cent. Over the same period Japan’s rose by 1.7 per cent.
On current trends, China’s defence budget will be five times bigger
than that of Japan by 2020. (…) Many Japanese officials and
experts would like a closer relationship with South Korea. But that
country’s leaders have been reluctant to respond. This may be
because they have to consider South Korean public opinion, which,
because of memories of Japanese imperial rule and arguments over
disputed islands, tends to be suspicious of the Japanese. (…) The
essence of Japan’s strategy towards China is, like that of the US, to
engage and hedge. The Japanese want to ‘socialise’ China by
drawing it into a more active role in the institutions of global and
regional governance. (…) Defence experts worry that budgetary
constraints may prevent Japan from implementing the new nationaldefence programme guidelines. (...) If, as seems likely, the economic
imbalance between China and Japan becomes more pronounced,
the Japanese will become more dependent on the Americans. If the
US was to pull out of East Asian security, Japan might have no
choice but to accept ‘Finlandisation’: Japan would run its own
affairs, as Finland did during the Cold War, but its leaders would feel
unable to criticise Beijing or oppose its foreign policy. (…) Friendly
relations between China and Japan are evidently in both their
interests. But in Tokyo there is real concern that the increasing self-
confidence of Chinese leaders, the widening number of institutions
with a say in Chinese foreign policy, the growing hunger for oil and
gas, and the rising power of nationalist netizens could tilt China
towards a confrontational relationship.”
(Charles Grant – CER)
How Can We Stop the Suppression in Syria?
“A Jordanian specialist has said that the truth of the current situation
in Syria may lie somewhere between the news distributed by the
international Arabic media and that related by the Syrian government
media. As this comment clearly suggests, it is difficult to know what
is going on inside Syria and to assess the power and influence of the
Assad regime and the anti-regime movement on the Syrian people.Since March 2011, when large-scale anti-regime popular
demonstrations began, the government media have not
acknowledged the existence of those demonstrations. They have
consistently claimed that the Syrian people are satisfied with the
regime's reform efforts, and have attributed the confrontation to an
invasion by foreign armed terrorists. The international media, on the
other hand, have stood with the anti-regime movement and
emphasized its determination to overcoming oppression by the
regime. The discourse from neither side can be trusted absolutely. It
is improbable that foreign terrorists could create such tremendous
confusion that thousands of people would flee to neighboring
countries if the people truly supported the regime. At the same time,
if the anti-regime movement were capable of mobilizing the huge
numbers of people that the international media is reporting, the
Assad regime might already have been forced to make major
concessions. (…) As part of international efforts, Japan supports the
refugees and the Syrian people. In addition to that, I think that it is
possible for Japan to contribute to unification of the anti-regime
movements by cooperating with Turkey, which has close relations
with them. In approaching the Assad regime, Japan might urge Iran,
Russia and China, which have relatively good relations with the
regime, to force it to agree to a ceasefire. Through different
channels, Japan should help stabilize Syria and the Middle East, a
region critical for Japan, but in any case, primary consideration
should be given to the security of ordinary people and their day-to-
day safety. This is, I believe, the soundest way to establish stability
and democracy, as naïve as this may sound.”
(Teruaki Moriyama – AJISS-Commentary)
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Mr. Koichiro Gemba, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, to
Attend the United Nations Conference on Sustainable
Development (Rio+20)
[http://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/event/
2012/6/0619_01.html]
Japan-Turkey Foreign Ministers' Meeting
[http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/middle_e/turkey/
meeting1206_fm.html]
"Japan-East Asia Network of Exchange for Students and
Youths" Soccer Exchanges between five ASEAN Nations
[http://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/event/
2012/6/0615_02.html]
Istanbul Statement of the Foreign Ministers of Non-
Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative [http://
www.mofa.go.jp/policy/un/disarmament/arms/
npdi_4th_Statement.html]
Japan-Belgium Foreign Ministers' Meeting
[http://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/announce/
2012/6/0612_01.html]
Statement by the Press Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
of Japan on a series of terrorist attacks in Iraq [http://
www.mofa.go.jp/announce/announce/2012/6/0614_01.html]
Hosting by Japan of PSI (Proliferation Security Initiative) Air
Interdiction Exercise "Pacific Shield 12" [http://
www.mofa.go.jp/announce/event/2012/6/0613_01.html]
J-SOFT POWER WEEKLY BRIEFEditor: Rui Faro Saraiva
Assistant Editor: Eduardo Passos
Assistant Editor: Seiko Sakuragi
Osaka, Japan • Editor’s mailbox:
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