iz miskinove knjige o kejnzijanizmu

8/13/2019 Iz Miskinove Knjige o Kejnzijanizmu

1/26

SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE MARKET FOR MONEY:THE LIQUIDITY PREFERENCE FRAM EWORKInstead of deter!n!n" t#e e$%!&!'r!% !nterest rate %s!n" t#e s%((&) of and deand for

'onds* an a&ternat!+e ode& de+e&o(ed ') ,o#n Ma)nard Ke)nes* -no.n as t#e&!$%!d!t) (referen/e frae.or-* deLer!nes L#e e$%!&!'r!% !eresL raLe !n Lers ofL#e s%((&) of and deand for one) A&L#o%"# L#e L.o frae.or-s &oo- d!ffere* L#e

&!$%!d!t) (referen/e ana&)s!s of t#e ar-et for one) !s /&ose&) re&ated to t#e s%((&) anddeand frae.or- of L#e 'ond ar-eL01T#e sLan!n" (o! of Ke)nes2s ana&)s!s !s #!s ass%(L!on L#aL L#ere are L.o a!n /aLe"or!es of asseLs L#aL (eo(&e %se Lo sLore L#e!r .ea&L#: one) and 'onds0 T#erefore* LoLa3.ea3L# !n L#e e/ono) %sL e$%a& L#e LoLa3 $%a!L) of 'onds (&%s one) !n L#e e/ono)* .#!/# e$%a&s t#e $%ant!t) of 'onds s%((&!ed 4526 (&%s t#e $%ant!t) of one) s%(

(&!ed 4M26 T#e $%ant!t) of 'onds 4Ed6 and one) 4Md6 t#at (eo(&e .ant to #o&d and t#%sdeand %sL a&so e$%a& L#e LoLa3 ao% of .ea3L#* 'e/a%se (eo(&e /annoL (%r/#aseore assets t#an t#e!r a+a!&a'&e reso%r/es a&&o.0 T#e /on/&%s!on !s t#at t#e $%ant!t) of

'onds and one) s%((&!ed %st e$%a& t#e $%ant!t) of 'onds and one) deanded:476

Co&&e/t!n" t#e 'ond ters on one s!de of t#e e$%at!on and t#e one) ters on t#eoL#er* L#!s e$%aL!on /an 'e re.r!LLen as.8 9 8 T#e re.r!LLen e$%aL!on Le&&s %s L#aL !f L#e ar-eL for one) !s !n e$%!&!'r!% 4 9 Md6*t#e r!"#t8#and s!de of E$%at!on e$%a&s ;ero* !(&)!n" t#at 52 9 5d* ean!n" t#at t#e

'ond ar-et !s a&so !n e$%!&!'r!%0T#%s !t !s t#e sae to t#!n- a'o%t detC,!n!n" t#e e$%!&!'r!% !nterest rate ') e$%at!n" L#e s%((&) and deand for 'onds or ') e$%aL!n" L#e s%((&) and deand for one)0In L#!s sense* L#e &!$%!d!L) (referen/e frae.or-* .#!/# ana&);es L#e ar-eL for one)* !se$%!+a&ent to a frae.or- ana&);!n" s%((&) and deand !n t#e 'ond ar-et0 In (ra/t!/e*t#e a((roa/#es d!ffer* 'e/a%se ') ass%!n" t#at t#ere are on&) t.o -!nds of assets* one)and 'onds* t#e &!$%!d!t) (referen/e a((roa/# !(&!/!t&) !"nores an) effe/ts on !nterest ratest#at ar!se fro /#an"es !n t#e e


2/26

F!nan/!a& Mar-etsFIURE BInterest Rate* !46?

7=7? 9 @=

@?M2, 0000000000 0@ ??7????1??=????Q%ant!t) of Mone)* M4G '!&&!ons6

E$%!&!'r!% !n t#e Mar-et for Mone)one) fa&&s re&at!+e to t#e e


3/26

We /an a&so see t#at t#e $%ant!t) of one) deanded and t#e !nterest rate s#o%&d'e ne"at!+e&) re&ated ') %s!n" t#e /on/e(t of o((ort%n!t) /ost* t#e ao%nt of !nterest4e


4/26

EYNES2S LIQUIDITY PREFERENCE THEORYIn #!s fao%s @ 'oo- I@,e enera& T#eor) of E(&o)ent* Interest* and Mone)* ,o#nMa)nard Ke)nes a'andoned t#e /&ass!/a& +!e. t#at +e&o/!t) .as a /onstant and de+e&o(ed a t#eor) of one) deand t#at e(#as!;ed t#e !(ortan/e of !nterest rates0 H!st#eor) of t#e deand for one)* .#!/# #e /a&&ed t#e &!$%!d!t) (referen/e t#eor)*as-ed t#e $%est!on: W#) do !nd!+!d%a&s #o&d one)& He (ost%&ated t#at t#ere are t#ree

ot!+es 'e#!nd t#e deand for one): t#e transa/t!ons ot!+e* t#e (re/a%t!onar)ot!+e* and t#e s(e/%&at!+e ot!+e0=We rea/# a s!!&ar /on/&%s!on !& .e %se M7 +e&o/!t)0 T#e (er/ea"e /#an"e !n M7 +e&o/!t)4DPJ@>@76 I ro @B@to @B7 .as 8=0?* .#ereas fro @B? to @B@ !t .as 700 T#!s d!fferen/e of 0 eans t#atno!na& OP.as 0 &o.er L&%n !t .o%&d #a+e 'een !f M7 +e&o/!t) #ad -e(t "ro.!n" at t#e sae rate as !n &B?8& B@=?1P A R T Monetar) T#eor)

Transa/t!ons Mot!+eIn t#e /&ass!/a& a((roa/#* !nd!+!d%a&s are ass%ed to #o&d one) 'e/a%se !t !s aed!% of e


5/26

'e/a%se !n #!s t!e* %n&!-e toda)* ost /#e/-a'&e de(os!ts d!d not earn !nterest0 For'onds* t#ere are t.o /o(onents of t#e e


6/26

$%a!t) of one) deanded Md* and so t#e one) deand /%r+e !s do.n.ard s&o(!n" as !n F!"%re B !n C#a(ter =0 5) der!+!n" t#e &!$%!d!t) (referen/e f%n/t!on for +e&o/!t) PYJM* .e /an see t#at Ke)nes2s t#eor) of t#e deand for one) !(&!es t#at +e&o/!t)T#e /&ass!/a& e/ono!sts2 one) deand!n" 'ot# s!des of E$%a%on ') t#e (r!/e/an a&so 'e .r!tten !n ters of rea& one) 'a&an/es ') d!+!d

r LO o'ta!n=?P A R T Monetar) T#eor)!s not /onstant* '%t !nstead f&%/t%ates .!t# o+eents !n !nterest rates0 T#e &!$%!d!t)

(referen/e e$%at!on /an 'e re.r!tten as(&Md

4!* Y6M%&t!(&)!n" 'ot# s!des of t#!s e$%at!on ') Y and re/o"n!;!n" t#at Md /an 'e

re(&a/ed ') M 'e/a%se t#e) %st 'e e$%a& !n one) ar-et e$%!&!'r!%* .e so&+e for+e&o/!t): 9 ())M

4!* Y64=6We -no. t#at t#e deand for one) !s ne"at!+e&) re&ated to !nterest rates .#en ! "oes%(*f4!* Y6 de/&!nes* and t#erefore +e&o/!t) r!ses0 In ot#er .ords* a r!se !n !nterest ratesen/o%ra"es (eo(&e to #o&d &o.er rea& one) 'a&an/es for a "!+en &e+e& of !n/oe t#erefore* t#e rate at .#!/# one) t%rns o+er 4+e&o/!t)6 %st 'e #!"#er0 T#!s reason!n" !(&!est#at 'e/a%se !nterest rates #a+e s%'stant!a& f&%/t%at!ons* t#e &!$%!d!t) (referen/e t#eor) oft#e deand for one) !nd!/ates t#at +e&o/!t) #as s%'stant!a& f&%/t%at!ons as .e&&0An !nterest!n" feat%re of E$%at!on = !s t#at !t e


7/26

ot!+e0 A&t#o%"# Ke)nes too- t#e transa/t!ons and (re/a%t!onar) /o(onents of t#edeand for one) to 'e (ro(ort!ona& to !n/oe* #e reasoned t#at t#e s(e/%&at!+eot!+e .o%&d 'e ne"at!+e&) re&ated to t#e &e+e& of !nterest rates0Ke)nes2s ode& of t#e deand for one) #as t#e !(ortant !(&!/at!on t#at +e&o/!t) !s not /onstant* '%t !nstead !s (os!t!+e&) re&ated to !nterest rates* .#!/# f&%/t%ate s%'stant!a&&) H!s t#eor) a&so ree/ted t#e /onstan/) of +e&o/!t)* 'e/a%se /#an"es !n (eo(&e2s

e


8/26

ofE/ono!/s 4@=76: =1=8== and aes To'!n* T#e &eresL E&as%/!t) o& t#e Transa/%onsDeandR/+!n+ of E.no!/s and Stat!st!o H 4@=6: 71@871=?BP A R T

Monetar) T#eor)'e"!nn!n" of t#e ont# #e #as G@*???* and ') t#e end of t#e ont# #e #as no /as# &eft'e/a%se #e #as s(ent !t a&L O+er t#e /o%rse of t#e ont#* #!s #o&d!n"s of one) .!&&on a+era"e 'e G=?? 4#!s #o&d!n"s at t#e 'e"!nn!n" of t#e ont#* G@*???* (&%s #!s #o&d!n"s at t#e end of t#e ont#* G?* d!+!ded ') 76At t#e 'e"!nn!n" of t#e ne


9/26

!n #o&d!n" a &ot of 'onds a) o%t.e!"# t#e !nterest (a)ents* and ra .o%&d t#en'e 'etter off #o&d!n" ore /as# and fe.er 'onds0T#e /on/&%s!on of t#e 5a%o&8To'!n ana&)s!s a) 'e stated as fo&&o.s: As !nterest rates!n/rease* t#e ao%nt of /as# #e&d for transa/t!ons (%$,oses .!&& de/&!ne* .#!/# !n t%rnC H A P T E R @ T#e Deand or Mone)

=?eans t#at +e&o/!t) .!&& !n/rease as !nterest rates !n/reaseB P anot#er .a)* t#e transa/t!ons/o(onent of t#e deand for one) !s ne"at!+e&) re&ated to t#e &e+e& of !nterest rates0T#e 'as!/ !dea !n t#e 5a%o&8To'!n ana&)s!s !s t#at t#ere !s an o((on%n!t) /ost of#o&d!n" one)8t#e !erest t#at /an 'e earned on ot#er assets0 T#ere !s a&so a 'enef!t to #o&d!n" one)8t#e a+o!dan/e of transa/t!on /osts0 W#en !nterest rates !n/rease*

(eo(&e .!&& tr) to e/ono!;e on t#e!r #o&d!n"s of one) for transa/t!ons (%$,oses* 'e/a%set#e o((on%n!t) /ost of #o&d!n" one) #as !n/reased0 5) %s!n" s!(&e ode&s* 5a%o& andTo'!n re+ea&ed soet#!n" t#at .e !"#t not ot#er.!se #a+e seen: t#at t#e transa/t!onsdeand for one)* and not ,USt t#e s(e/%&at!+e deand* .!&& 'e sens!t!+e to !erestrates0 T#e 5a%o&8To'!n ana&)s!s (resents a n!/e deonstrat!on of t#e +a&%e of e/ono!/

ode&!n" T#e !dea t#at as !erest rates !n/rease* t#e o((on%n!t) /ost of #o&d!n" one)!n/reases so t#at t#e deand for one) fa&&s* /an 'e stated e$%!+a&ent&) .!t# t#e ter!no&o") of e>+0)e/on&a'0/oJ!s#-!n


10/26

&&f#ese ode&s o& L#e (re/a%%onar) deand &or one) a&so re+ea& L#aL as %n/ena!nL) a'o%L L#e&e+e& o& IUL%retransa/t!ons "ro.s* t#e (re/a%t!onar) deand for one) !n/reases0 T#!s !s so 'e/a%se "reater%n/erta!nt) eansL#aL !nd!+!d%a&s are ore &!-e&) Lo !n/%r Lransa/L!on /osLs !f L#e) are noL

'a&an/es0 T#e 'en8

ef!t of #o&d!n" s%/# 'a&an/es t#en !n/reases re&at!+e to t#e o((ort%n!t) /ostfor L#e r!ses!nterest* and so t#e deand= @ ?P A R T Monetar) T#eor)e

aon" assets0 Indeed* #!s ana&)s!s .as an !(ortant ste( !n t#e de+e&o(ent of t#e a/ade!/ f!e&d of f!nan/e* .#!/# e


11/26

To s% %(* f%rt#er de+e&o(ents of t#e Ke)nes!an a((roa/# #a+e a&&e(ted to "!+ea ore (re/!se e

DETERM INATION OF AREATE OUTPUT

Ke)nes .as es(e/!a&&) !nLeresLed !n %ndersLand!n" o+ees of a""re"aLe o('e/a%se #e .aed Lo e


12/26

(r!/es0 Ke)nes2s ana&)s!s ass%es t#at t#e (r!/e &e+e& !s f!


13/26

7?? 49 a61??1??7??1??B??

1??7????@*7??1??7??B??e


14/26

a9 7??C 9 7?? ?0= Y?7??1????B?? @ *??? @ *7?? @ *1?? @ *??

D!s(osa'&e In/oe* Y? 4G '!&&!ons6Cons%(t!on F%n/t!onT#e /ons%(t!on f%n/t!on (&otted #ere !s fro Ta'&e @ a 9 7?? and(/ 9 ?0=0F!"%re @0 S!!&ar&)* at (o!nt * .#ere d!s(osa'&e !n/oe #as !n/reased ') anot#er G1??

'r&&!on to GB?? 'r&&!on* /ons%er e


15/26

An !(ortant feat%re of !n+entor) !n+estent !s t#at8!n /ontrast to f!


16/26

@9 @ ??Yd 9 C I 9 =?? ?0= YW#en I9 ?? and C9 7?? ?0=Y* e$%!&!'r!% o%t(%t o//%rs at Y29@ *???* .#ere t#e a""re"ate deand f%n/t!on Yd 9 C I !nterse/ts.!t# t#e 1= &!ne Y9 )%dt#e /ons%(t!on f%nCL!on .!t# a9 7?? and (/ 9 ?0= (&otted !n F!"%re @ /an 'e .r!t

ten as C 9 7?? ?0=Y and !s (&otted !n F!"%re 70 !+en t#at (&anned !n+estent s(end!n" !s G?? '!&&!on* a""re"ate deand /an t#en 'e e


17/26

E


18/26

e$%!&!'r!% o%t(%t r!ses fro Y@ 9 @*??? to Y7 9 @*7??0W#) does a /#an"e !n (&anned !n+estent s(end!n" &ead to an e+en &ar"er /#an"e!n a""re"ate o%t(%t so t#at t#e e


19/26

Anot#er .a) to rea/# t#!s /on/&%s!on8t#at an) /#an"e !n a%tonoo%s s(end!n".!&& &ead to a %&t!(&!ed /#an"e !n a""re"ate o%t(%t8!s to re/o"n!;e t#at t#e s#!ft !nt#e a""re"ate deand f%n/t!on !n F!"%re d!d not #a+e to /oe fro an !n/rease !nI !t /o%&d a&so #a+e /oe fro an !n/rease !n a* .#!/# d!re/t&) ra!ses /ons%ere


20/26

!n+estents !n (#)s!/a& /a(!ta& 4a/#!nes* fa/tor!es* and ra. ater!a&s6 as &on" as t#e)e


21/26

!n+esLe s(end!n" and net e


22/26


23/26

of (&anned !n+estent and net e


24/26

o((ort%n!t) /ost of #o&d!n" one) r!ses* and t#e deand for one) fa&&s0 A//ord!n" to=BP A R T Monetar) T#eor)FIURE BInterest

Rate* !M2MIPQ%ant!t) of Rea& Mone) 5a&an/es* MJP4a6 Mar-et for one)InterestRate* !* 8 8 8 83 8 8 8 8 8 81 LM C%r+eII

IE


25/26

rates* so t#e >2 /%r. !n (ane& 4a6 s#o%&d a/t%a&&) #a. a (os!t!. s&o(e0 T#e >2 /%r. !s ass%ed to 'e.n!/a& !n

(dn/& 4d6 Lo s!(&!&) L#/ "r,(#* '%L a&&o.!n" for a (os!L!+/ s&o(e &/,ds Lo !d/!/a& r/s%&LsC H A P T E R 7 ?T#e ISLM Mode&=

Pane& 4'6 (&ots t#e e$%!&!'r!% !nterest rates t#at /orres(ond to t#e d!fferent o%t(%t &e+e&s* .!t# (o!nts &* 7* and /orres(ond!n" to t#e e$%!&!'r!% (o!nts &* 7* and !n (ane& 4a60 T#e &!ne /onne/t!n" t#ese (o!nts !s t#e LM /%r+e* .#!/# s#o.s t#e /o

'!nat!ons of !nterest rates and o%t(%t for .#!/# t#e ar-et for one) !s !n e$%!&!'r!%0T#e (os!t!+e s&o(e ar!ses 'e/a%se #!"#er o%t(%t ra!ses t#e deand for one) and t#%sra!ses t#e e$%!&!'r!% !nterest rate0W#at t#e LM C%r+e Te&&s Us T#e LM /%r+e tra/es o%t t#e (o!nts t#at sat!sf)t#e e$%!&!'r!% /ond!t!on t#at t#e $%ant!t) of one) deanded e$%a&s t#e $%ant!t) ofone) s%((&!ed0 For ea/# "!+en &e+e& of a""re"ate o%t(%t* t#e L>@ /%r+e te&&s %s .#att#e !nterest rate %st 'e for t#ere to 'e e$%!&!'r!% !n t#e ar-et for one)0 As a""re"ate o%t(%t r!ses* t#e deand for one) !n/reases and t#e !nterest rate r!ses* so t#at

one) deanded e$%a&s one) s%((&!ed and t#e ar-et for one) !s !n e$%!&!'r!%0%st as t#e e/ono) tends to o+e to.ard t#e e$%!&!'r!% (o!nts re(resented ') t#eIS /%r+e* !t a&so o+es to.ard t#e e$%!&!'r!% (o!nts on t#e LM /%r+e0 If t#e e/ono)!s &o/ated !n t#e area to t#e &eft of t#e L>@ /%r+e* t#ere !s an e@ /%r+e0ISLM APPROACH TO AREATE OUTPUTAND INTEREST RATES

No. t#at .e #a+e der!+ed t#e IS and LM /%r+es* .e /an (%t t#e !nto t#e sae d!a"ra 4F!"%re 6 to (rod%/e a ode& t#at ena'&es %s to deter!ne 'ot# a""re"ate o(%tand t#e !nterest rate0 T#e on&) (o!nt at .#!/# t#e "oods ar-et and t#e ar-et forone) are !n s!%&taneo%s e$&!'r!% !s at t#e !nterse/t!on of t#e IS and LM /%r+es*

(o!nt E0 At t#!s (o!nt* a""re"ate o%t(%t e$%a&s a""re"ate deand 4IS6 and t#e $%ant!t)of one) deanded e$%a&s t#e $%ant!t) of one) s%((&!ed 4LM60 At an) ot#er (o!nt !nt#e d!a"ra* at &east one of t#ese e$%!&!'r!% /ond!t!ons !s not sat!sf!ed* and ar-etfor/es o+e t#e e/ono) to.ard t#e "enera& e$%!&!'r!%* (o!nt E0To &earn #o. t#!s .or-s* &et2s /ons!der .#at #a((ens !f t#e e/ono) !s at (o!nt A*.#!/# !s on t#e IS /%r+e '%t not t#e L>@ /%r+e0 E+en t#o%"# at (o!nt A t#e "oods ar-et !s !n e$%!&!'r!%* so t#at a""re"ate oUL(%t e$%a&s a""re"ate deand* t#e !nterest rate!s a'o+e !ts e$%!&!'r!% &e+e&* so t#e deand for one) !s &ess t#an t#e s%((&)0 5e/a%se

(eo(&e #a+e ore one) t#an t#e) .ant to #o&d* t#e) .!&& tr) to "et r!d of !t ') '%)!n" 'onds0 T#e res%&t!n" r!se !n 'ond (r!/es /a%ses a fa&& !n !nterest rates* .#!/# !n t%rn/a%ses 'ot# (&anned !n+estent s(end!n" and net e


26/26

Monetar) T#eor)FIURE InterestRate* !X)X

LMISA""re"ate O%t(%t* YJSLM D!a"ra: S!%&taneo%s Deter!nat!on of O%t(%t and t#eInterest RateOn&) at (o!nt E* .#en t#e !nterest rate !s X and o%t(%t !s Y2* !s t#eree$%!&!'r!% s!%&taneo%s&) !n 'ot# t#e "oods ar-et 4as eas%red ')t#e @= /%r+e6 and t#e ar-et for one) 4as eas%red ') t#e LM /%r+e60At ot#er (o!nts* s%/# as A* B* C* or D* one of t#e t.o ar-ets !s not !ne$%!&!'r!%* and t#ere .!&& 'e a tenden/) to #ead to.ard t#ee$%!&!'r!%* (o!nt E0

/ont!n%es %nt!& t#e !nterest rate fa&&s to ! and a""re"ate o%t(%t r!ses to Y8t#at !s* %nt!&t#e e/ono) !s at e$%!&!'r!% (o!nt E0If t#e e/ono) !s on t#e L>@ /%r+e '%t off t#e IS /%r+e at (o!nt 5* !t .!&& a&so #eadto.ard t#e e$%!&!'r!% at (o!nt E0 At (o!nt 5* e+en t#o%"# one) deand e$%a&sone) s%((&)* o%t(%t !s #!"#er t#an t#e e$%!&!'r!% &e+e& and e

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