PowerPoint

Itz KeihanTakeshi Naritomi

Case Study: Syria

OutlineIntroductionHistorical backgroundTimeline of the crisisActions taken by the international communityFailures of the international communityR2P evaluationConclusionSyria todaySyria

IntroductionSyrian people Religion Ethnicity Christianity(10%) Islam(90%) Arab (90%) Non-Arab (10%)(Kurds,Turkmen,Armenian ) Shiite (13%)Sunni (74%)Alawites (9%)Assad Govt Opposition IntroductionBrief Modern History Syria was ruled by various Islamic dynasties before it was invaded by Ottoman EmpireFrench mandate (1920-46) Gained independence from France in 1946Involvement in Arab-Israel War in 1948 1950s and 1960s are marked by a state of political instability single party rule until Baath party was establishedHistorical BackgroundBaath party ruleFounded in 1947Ideology: Arab nationalism, Pan-Arabism, Arab socialism and anti-Imperialism interestsBaath party with the help of military committee carried a successful coup which established Baath party rule in SyriaGeneral Hafiz Al-Assad seized power in 1970Installed authoritarian regime, single party rule, and brutally repressive

Historical BackgroundBaath party ruleMuslim Brotherhood uprising and Hamma massacre occurred, which resulted in the of killing of 10,000 people in 1982 Hafiz Al-Assad was replaced by his son Bashar Al-Assad upon his death in 2000Bashar Al-Assad continued to rule Syria till Arab spring hit Syria

Historical Background

2011Mid-Mar: Protest begins

Jul. 29: Free Syrian Army

Aug. 23: Syrian National CouncilTimelineApr. 29: HRC adopts Res. S-16/1May: US and EU tighten sanctions

Aug. 22: HRC holds a Special Session

Oct. 4: Russia and China veto a DR at SC

etc.2011-2012By Feb: 7,500 dead

TimelineNov. 12: LAS suspends Syrias membershipNov. 27: LAS imposes economic sanctionsDec. - Jan: LAS observer missionFeb. 4: Russia and China veto a DR at SCFeb. 23: Kofi Annan is appointed as Joint Special Envoy

2012Violence intensifies

Jun. 6: Assad names Riyad Hijab as PM to form a new governmentTimelineMid-Mar: Annan presents six-point proposalApr. 14: SC adopts Res. 2042Apr. 21: SC adopts Res. 2043 UNSMIS

May: Diplomatic expulsion by US, UK, France, Germany, etc.

2012Jun. 22: Syria shoots down a Turkish reconnaissance planeSome officials defect

TimelineJun. 16: UN suspends UNSMIS

Jul. 19 : Russia and China veto a DR under Chapter VIIJul. 20: SC adopts Res. 2059 Aug. 2: Annan resigns

2012-2013Oct. 3: Syria mortar fire kills 5 civilians in TurkeyNov. 11: National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces is established

Mar. 18: Ghassan Hitto was elected as interim PMMay-Jun: sarine nerve gas is used

TimelineAug. 17: Lakhdar Brahimi is appointed as Joint Special Envoy

Jan: $ 1.5 bn. aid is pledged

2013By Jun 26: 100,000 dead - regime side; 43,000 - opposition side; 18,000 - civilians; 37,000Timeline

Human Rights CouncilActions Taken by the International CommunityRes. S-16/1 (Apr. 29, 2011) - OHCHRs fact-finding mission - found that widespread and systematic attacks could amount to crimes against humanity

Special Session (Aug. 22, 2011) - Commission of Inquiry - extensive human rights violations General AssemblyActions Taken by the International Community66/176 (Dec. 19, 2011) - implementation of a peace plan by LAS66/253/A (Feb. 16, 2012) - appointment of Special Envoy66/253/B (Aug. 3, 2012) - political transition67/183 (Dec. 20, 2012) - financial support for humanitarian issues67/262 (May. 15, 2013)Security CouncilActions Taken by the International CommunityDR (Oct. 4, 2011) - warning of possible sanctions N: A:DR (Feb. 4, 2012) - an end to all acts of violence - release of detainees - withdrawal of armed forces from civilian areas - freedom of access to the UN, NGOs and other humanitarian monitors N:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duzE3zZqTVcSecurity CouncilActions Taken by the International CommunityRes. 2042 (Apr. 14, 2012) - implementation of six-point proposal - an advance team of 30 unarmed military observersRes. 2043 (Apr. 21, 2012) - establishment of UNSMIS for 90 days mandate - to monitor a cessation of armed violence - to monitor and support the full implementation of six-point proposal

Security CouncilActions Taken by the International CommunityDR (Jul. 19, 2012) - threat of sanctions - renewal of the UNSMIS mandate - extension of the UNSMIS for 45 days N: A:Res. 2059 (Jul. 20, 2012) - extension of the UNSMIS for 30 days

League of Arab StatesFailures of the International CommunityEconomic sanctions (Nov. 27, 2011) - limited effects without the support from Iraq, Lebanon and JordanObserver Mission (Dec. 2011 - Jan. 2012) - terms of remit was negotiated with the Assad regime - head was al-Dabi - lasted for only a monthSecurity Council Failures of the International CommunityWest - regime change and sanctionsRussia - naval base in Tartus and arms export Russia & China - lessons learned from the Libya experience

vs.

Is the (military) intervention in Syria justifiable based on the R2P criteria?

If yes,

Then why has the International Community not been able to authorize coercive (military) intervention in Syria? Just Cause Right IntentionLast Resort Proportional Means ?Reasonable Prospects Right Authority ?R2P CriteriaR2P CriteriaJust Cause Military intervention for the purpose of protecting Syrian civilians can be justified because:Crimes against humanity continue by Syrian government: --victims include innocent women and children-- massacre/torturing/imprisoning/denying access to food, water and medical supplies/chemical weaponsBasher Al-Assad is a war criminal

R2P CriteriaRight IntentionIs the main intention of the military action toprevent human suffering or are there other motives?Intervention has not taken place yetHowever, if the intervention takes place by the West: Primary intention: protecting civilian from brutality of Assad regimeUlterior goal: regime change

R2P CriteriaLast ResortHas the intl community taken every other measure?Major unilateral or multilateral measures have been taken so far. Expulsion of diplomatic contact with Syria by US, UK, France, Germany, etc.Suspension of Syrian membership and imposing sanction by the League of Arab StatesR2P CriteriaLast ResortWhat should have taken place by UNSC before military measure?SanctionsNo-Fly ZoneArms Embargo Unification of militarized oppositions and direct assistance to them Due to the current humanitarian situations in Syria, military intervention is crucial R2P CriteriaProportional meansMinimum military intervention to secure human safety

If the intl community intervenes, measure tips to be considered in order to minimize human casualties:Syria is very populated compared to Libya, advance tactic to avoid civilian causality should be used. Though intervention might lead to casualties, the death toll may not be as high as the number of killing currently committed by the Syrian Army.

R2P CriteriaReasonable prospectsThe consequences of intervention are very unpredictableSyrian opposition is not unified under one leadership, possibility of sectarian conflict. Arms support from Russia as well as men and arms from Iran may give the Syrian Army an opportunity to commit genocide. However, the status quo of Syria is getting close to meet R2P criteria in order to justify intervention for the sake of halting human atrocity.

R2P CriteriaRight Authority If intervention happens, it can be legitimate only if it is authorized by UNSC:United Nations itself can intervene Or, any country who is willing to intervene based on the Third Pillar of R2P, E.G United States is willing to intervene under SC authorization. Intervention should be multilateral, collectively mobilized, endorsement of China and Russia is crucial

R2P Criteria Why has intervention not been taken place? Preventing mass atrocities and genocide is a core national security interest and a core moral responsibility of the United States. Obama Assad has P2 (Russia and China on its side) which will veto any resolution concerning intervention. On the other hand, US is willing to intervene under SC authorization which is not possible at the moment since P2 opposes such action. Which brings us to the question, Is Syria the End of the R2P?ConclusionCurrent Humanitarian Situations According to OCHA:4.25 million people displaced within the country1.6 million fled their country and sought refugees in the neighboring countries such as Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. The number is expected to increase to 3.5 million by the end of this year. Entire new generation is at risk of growing up traumatized. Syrian economy has collapsed, shops are closed and food is scarce, and access to healthcare is extremely limited.

Syria Todayhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_GHM0DsuCgThank you for your attention!