it’s the sun: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
TRANSCRIPT
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changesChristopher Monckton of [email protected]
Heartland Conference, 2012
The Climateof Freedom
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
The illogic ofclimate hysteria
Aristotle Singer
Alarmist fallacies
1Conclusion: ‘There’s a
consensus’
Classification: Headcount fallacy
Latin name: Argumentum ad populum
2Conclusion: ‘Experts agree’
Classification: Reputation fallacy
Latin: Argumentum ad verecundiam
3‘We can’t explain warming
without a strong effect from manmade CO2’
Fallacy of argument from ignorance
Argumentum ad ignorantiam
4‘Warming is accelerating,
so we are the cause’
Red-herring fallacy
Ignoratio elenchi
5‘What about the cuddly
polar bears?’
Fallacy of inappropriate pity
Argumentum ad misericordiam
6‘We add CO2 to the air:
it causes warming: so observed warming is
down to us’
Fallacy of false cause
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
7‘We tell the models CO2
causes much warming: they tell us just the same’
Begging-the-question fallacy
Petitio principii
8‘Warming makes hurricanes bad: Katrina was bad: so we
caused it’
Fallacy of accident
Argumentum a dicto simpliciter
ad dictum secundum quid
9‘Arctic ice is melting, so
manmade global warming caused it’
Fallacy of converse accident
Argumentum a dicto secundum quid
ad dictum simpliciter
10‘Agree with us or we’ll haul
you up before the International Climate Court’
Argument of force
Argumentum ad baculum
Rights of legal personality for ‘Mother Earth’
International ‘Climate Court’
against Western nations only
CO2 concentration cut to 200 ppmv,
killing trees, plants, and animals
Proposals dropped from Durban draft, 2011
11‘Monckton says he’s a Lord. Parliament’s clerks says he
isn’t. So he’s wrong about the
climate.
Attack on the man, not his argument
Argumentum ad hominem
12GOOGLE search term:
‘Monckton liar’About 4,700,000 page hits
found
Argumentum Alinskiense
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
It isn’t happeningas predicted
Global oceanheat content
+2 x 1022 J
+4 x 1022 J
+6 x 1022 J
–2 x 1022 J
IPCC models over-predict ocean warming
2006 2008 2010 2012ARGO buoys (0-700 m)
Climate models
Observations
Dr. David Evans
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.50
0.49
0.48
0.47
m 2011/12: sea-level is lowest in 8 years
Aviso Envisat (raw data)
Sea level is rising at just 1.3 inches per century
Aviso Envisat (raw data)2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Hurricanes are quieter than for 30 years
A.C.E., 1972-2012: Dr. Ryan Maue
Extent and trend of global sea iceare almost unchanged in 33 years
University of Illinois, 1979-2012
Methane concentration up just 20 ppbvin a decade
Australian Bureau of MeteorologyCH4 concentration, Baring Hd., 1990-2009
CH4, 2000-2009:
+ 1/350 C°
Temperaturechange (C°)
IPCC HIGH
IPCC MEDIUM
LOW
UAH
IPCC over-predicts global warmingHigh, medium and low projections (IPCC, 1990)versus observed reality, 1990-2012 (UAH)
1995 2000 2005 2010
Dr. David Evans (2011)
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
No scientific rationale for predicting what’s
predicted
𝑁 𝑑𝑒𝑡=𝑅
𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓 𝑝𝑙𝑎
𝑛 𝑒𝑛𝑣𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑓
𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑓 𝑐𝑖𝑣
𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑔The DrakeEquation
The QuackEquation
Radiative forcing 3.71 W m–2
Planck zero-feedback sensi-
tivity parameter 0.31 K W–1 m2
Overall feedback factor 2.81
Equilibrium warming 3.26 K
Radiative forcing:UnmeasurablePlanck clim.sens. param.:Unmeasurable
Water-vapor feedback: UnmeasurableLapse-rate feedback: UnmeasurableSurface albedo feedback: UnmeasurableCloud feedback: Unmeasurable
Feedback multiplier:Unmeasurable
Warming at 2x CO2:UNKNOWABLE!
Δ𝑇=Δ 𝐹 𝜆0𝐺 where
Is the feedback amplification equation the right one? This is the big question.
Or is a homeostatic model more truly representative of our planet’s climate?
0.4 0.50 0.53 0.56 0.59 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.77 0.83 0.91 1.0 1.11 1.25 1.43 1.67 2.00 2.50 3.33 5.00 10.00 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
5 K
10 K
15 K
20 K
25 K warming
-0.9
4.5 K3.3 K2.0 K
0.42 0.74
Negative Positive
+0.1–0.5
Net-negative feedbacks: likelyStrongly net-positive feedbacks: implausible
IPCC fantasy
zone
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95
2 K
4 K
6 K
8 K
10 K
12 K
14 K
16 K
18 K
20 K
22 K Theprocessengineer’slimitDr. David Evans
IPCC fantasy
zone
–1 0 Loop gain 2 3
The wrongequation?
Loop gain
--20 K--15 K--10 K
--5 K
5 K10 K15 K20 K The
processengineer’slimit
Temperature has varied by 8 C°, or <3%, either side of the
750m-year mean
Scotese (1999)Homeostasis:
An admission‘In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.’
IPCC (2001, §14.2.2.2)
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
It is more cost-effectiveto do nothing
No policy to abate global warming
by taxing, trading, regulating, reducing, or
replacing greenhouse-gas emissions
will prove cost-effective solely on grounds
of the welfare benefit from climate mitigation.
CO2 mitigation strategies that are inexpensive enough to be affordable will be ineffective; strategies costly enough to beeffective will be unaffordable. Focused adaptation is better.
The cost of the premium exceeds the cost of the
risk, so don’t insure.
Guevara Bast
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
The moral question
44
US- 77
Hong Kong - 81Japan - 81
Korea - 77
China - 71
Russian Fed. - 65
Africa
Chad - 44
India - 63
Indonesia - 67
South Africa - 46
Life expectancy (years)
v. CO2 emissions(tons per capita)
Chad - 200
Sierra Leone - 285 Africa
China - 36
USA - 8
Japan – 9.4
Iceland – 7.7
India - 90
Child mortality (per 1000 born)
v. CO2 emissions (tons per capita)
NationalGeographic
‘When millions are going hungry, it is a
crime against humanity that food
should be diverted to biofuels.’
Herr Jean Ziegler,UN Right-to-Food Rapporteur,
2007
48
Sightrestoredfor $8
51
OMNIS SPIRITVS LAVDET DOMINVM
52