iteration, errors and the entrepreneur
TRANSCRIPT
Ignorance, Iteration and the
EntrepreneurPaul Kedrosky
Apr 17/08
Four Postulates
Postulate #1
Postulate #2
Far better an approximate
answer to the right question,
which is often vague, than an
exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be
made precise.J. Tukey (1962), Annals of Mathematics and Statistics 33:1-67
Postulate #3
"What the deuce is it to me? You say that we go round
the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make
a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work." -- Sherlock Holmes in "A Study in Scarlet", Arthur Conan Doyle
Postulate #4
IgnoranceQuestionsFocusOptimism
How You Do What
You Do
If I am interested in, say, the
distribution of the intensities of hurricanes, I cannot just “collect data more frequently”: I
will just have to wait for the next hurricane to arrive.
Source: R. Rebonatto, Plight of the Fortune-Tellers (2007)
Gorillas in our midst
ScratchPeripheralPerspectiveDataGorillasIterate
Tomorrow is going to be
wonderful since today,
I do not understand anything.
- Niels Bohr
A challenge.
