italy may 2014_v3-ibf

1 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!

Copyright © 2014 by Ins3tute of Business Forecas3ng. All rights reserved

MISSION STATEMENT: “To Foster the Growth of Demand Planning,

Forecas9ng, S&OP, and the Careers of those in the Field”



•  Consumers are less loyal •  Short life-‐cycle products •  Highly promoted products •  Greater channels of distribu:on •  Greater number of new products •  Greater number of SKU’s (Expanding product porBolio)

•  Longer lead :mes to produce goods •  Greater compe::on

Today’s Challenges & Risks



Agenda For Today



•  How the S&OP process works •  What types of obstacles you’re likely to face with

S&OP and how to overcome them •  What benefits companies have derived by

implemen:ng the S&OP process •  Benchmarking Research •  About the IBF and Cer:fica:on

Agenda For Today



BENCHMARKING RESEARCH



Do you have an S&OP process in place?



Does Conflict of Interest Get in the Way of Improving Planning Performance?

31%

69%



Support of TOP MANAGEMENT for S&OP?



How do you measure S&OP Effec3veness?

21%

32%

54%

57%

53%

8%



Does your company follow a one set of numbers forecast philosophy?



How o`en do you hold forecast consensus mee3ngs?



Which type of data does your company use most in preparing forecasts?

31%

71%

37%

7%



Where does the forecas3ng func3on reside within your company?

10%

19%

9%

9%

65%

6%

6%



Forecas3ng Salaries – All Industries



Forecas3ng Salaries – Academic Backgrounds



Forecas3ng Salaries – Size of Companies



Forecas3ng Salaries – So`ware Used



What IBF Does



What IBF Does

•  Benchmarking Research •  Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) •  Global Events & Chapters •  Educational Books •  Membership •  Certification •  Corporate Training •  Assessments



ADVANCING WITH IBF



IBF CERTIFICATION VIDEO

Please watch this youtube video by the Director of Demand Planning from Estee Lauder:

hSp://youtu.be/n49R-‐8iE40c



IBF CERTIFICATION



Companies with IBF Certification (Partial List) Abbott Acuity Brands Lighting ADC Telecommunications Alberto Culver Alcatel-Lucent American Italian Pasta Company American Red Cross American Textile Company Amway Anderson Windows Andrew Corporation Anteon Corp AOL AstraZeneca Aveda Aventis Pharmaceuticals Baker Oil Tools Barnes Distribution BASF Corp Baxter Healthcare Bayer Best Buy Biomarin Black & Decker British Gypsum Brown Forman Capital One Carhartt Cartech Caterpillar Celgene Char-broil Chemtura Chevron Texaco Cisco Systems Cleco, Inc. CNH Global Con Edison Conros Corporation Continental Tire

Cooper Lighting Cordis Corning Cable Systems Coty Inc. Cummins Day Spring Cards Dealer Tire Delta Delta Faucet Deluxe Corporation Depuy Orthopaedics DePuy Spine Discover Financial Disney Dorel Juvenile Group Dorman Products Dow Corning Dupont E & J Gallo Winery Canada EAS East Penn Manufacturing Eaton Filtration GmbH Edmund Optics Eircom Elkay EMD Chemicals Emerson Process Emirates Telecommunication Cooperation Emyco ESAB FedEx Fisher Scientific Fruit of the Loom Fuji Photo Film USA Gap GE General Mills Georgia Pacific GlaxoSmithKline Globe Electric

Goodyear Graco Children's Products Grundfos Pump Corp. Hanes Brands Heineken Heinz Hewlett Packard Hollister Hypro Pumps Infosys Technologies Ltd Intuit Invitrogen Ipex Inc. John Deere Johnson & Johnson Juno Lighting Group Lafarge North America Land O'Lakes Lifescan Lilly Logitech MAC Manhattan Toy Maple Leaf Foods McCormick Mead Johnson Melaleuca Mepha Ltd. Merrill Lynch Michelin Microsoft Mine Safety Appliances Monster Cable Products Motorola Inc Nature's Path Foods Neiman Marcus Nestle Netjets Nordstrom Norfolk Southern Corporation

Noveon Novozymes Nuskin Oberto Ogio, Intl. ON Semiconductor Corp. OnStar Oracle Corporation Panasonic Pepsico Pfizer, Inc. Pharmavite Philip Morris Prevost Parts Primus Canada Procter & Gamble Quantum Corporation Rand McNally Research In Motion Revlon Rich-Sea Pak Corp Roche Diagnostics Rubbermaid Sanford Sappi Fine Paper Sara Lee Sartomer Satyam Saudi Aramco SBC Communications SC Johnson SCA Tissue Scholastic Book Fairs Scunci International Sealed Air Sears Shire Pharmaceuticals Inc Sigma Aldrich Smith & Nephew

Sony Spring Industries Standard Textile, Inc. Sun Chemical Syngenta SYSCO Food Systems TastyKake Tektronix Tennant Company Manufacturing Teva Pharmaceuticals Texas A&M University The Boeing Company The Hartz Mountain Corp The Scotts Company The Toro Company Thermatru Timberland T-Mobile Turtle Wax, Inc. Tyson Foods Under Armour Unilever UnitedHealthcare University of Notre Dame USAA USG Victoria's Secret Stores Vi-Jon Laboratories Wal-Mart Stores Walt Disney World Welch's Whirlpool Woodward World Kitchen Wrigley Wyeth Pharmaceuticals Xcel Energy Yokohama Tire Zytec



IBF Cer3fica3on

The IBF is a pioneer in developing a Demand Planning, Forecas:ng, and S&OP Cer:fica:on program that helps boost creden:als, as well as gives management greater confidence in its people. The IBF offers two levels of cer:fica:on:

1.   Cer3fied Professional Forecaster (CPF®) 2.   Advanced Cer3fied Professional Forecaster (ACPF®)



IBF CPF Exam Content Summary Exam 1

–  Role of Forecas:ng & Planning in Decision Making –  Demand Planning (Demand Sensing, Shaping, & Crea:ng) –  Forecas:ng & Planning Process –  Consump:on (POS Data) Based Forecas:ng & Planning –  Consensus Forecas:ng & Planning –  Sales & Opera:ons Planning (S&OP) Process –  Collabora:ve, Planning, Forecas:ng, & Replenishment (CPFR)

Exam 2

–  Data Analysis & Treatment –  Fundamentals of Models & Modeling –  Types of Models –  Time Series Models –  Model Selec:on –  Metrics: Measuring Forecast Error and Performance

Exam 3

–  Forecast Repor:ng & Presenta:on –  Forecast Communica:on –  Winning Support and Confidence of Management –  Gaining Buy-‐in from Stakeholders –  New Product Forecas:ng



CPF Exams

•  3 Exams –100 to 150 ques:ons •  Exams Taken Individually – Objec:ve Tests, Mul:ple Choice •  2 Hours per Exam •  CPF is earned when 70% or higher is scored for each exam

individually



IBF ACPF Exam Content Summary Exam 4

–  Regression/ Cause & Effect Models –  Types of Regression Models –  Assump:ons of a Simple Regression Model –  Steps to Build a Regression Model –  Diagnos:c Tools for Assessing Regression Models –  Development and Applica:on of Dummy Variables in Mul:ple Regression –  Improving a Mul:ple Regression Model –  ARIMA/Box-‐Jenkins Modeling –  Assump:ons of ARIMA Modeling –  ARIMA Models vs. Regression Models –  Types of ARIMA Models –  Steps to Build an ARIMA Model –  Improving ARIMA Models

Exam 5 –  Forecas:ng & Planning Technology –  Forecas:ng Package vs. Forecas:ng System –  Selec:ng a Forecas:ng Package –  Technology Capabili:es –  Scalability –  Forecas:ng System Implementa:on –  Worst Prac:ces in Forecas:ng & Demand Planning



ACPF Exams

•  2 Exams •  Exams Taken Individually – Objec:ve Tests (Mul:ple

Choice) •  2 Hours per Exam •  Must be CPF •  ACPF is earned when 70% or higher is scored for each exam

individually



Study Materials Provided & Prepara3on

•  Study Materials: CPF & ACPF –  Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecas:ng Book (inclusive

of glossary)

•  Prepara:on –  IBF Tutorials/ Forecas:ng Academy –  IBF Sta:s:cal Workshops –  IBF In-‐House Seminars –  IBF Online Training –  IBF Cer:fica:on Review Course –  Professional Experience



Cer3fica3on Period & Renewal Requirements

•  Ini:al Cer:fica:on Period = 4 Years •  Cer:fica:on Renewals Every 4 Years •  Con:nuing Educa:on Points for Renewal without

Reexamina:on –  CPF: 40 CE Points for Renewal –  ACPF: 50 CE Points for Renewal

•  Candidate can also choose to re-‐take exams to renew cer:fica:on



Re-‐Cer3fica3on ACTIVITY* POINTS EARNED Attend an IBF Conference/ Seminar/ Workshop/ Boot Camp 10 pts Attend IBF's In-House Training 5 pts IBF Membership per year 5 pts IBF Online education per course 3 pts Attend another forecasting & planning related conference, 1.5 days+ (Supply Chain, Analytics, Planning, etc.)

5 pts

Serve on an IBF Board or Committee 5 pts. per year of service Publish original research on forecasting & planning 10 pts per publication Publish an article or blog on forecasting & planning 5 pts. per article published Speak at a forecasting & planning conference 5 pts per presentation Speak for a forecasting & planning webinar 5 pts per presentation Be an IBF Ambassador or Volunteer 5 pts per engagement Successful completion of an academic course in forecasting & planning

3 pts per credit hour

IBF Chapter Meeting 3 pts IBF Webinar 2 pts

*One can propose other ac:vi:es that are “external” to the organiza:on that proves staying abreast with forecas:ng & planning



IBF Awards -‐ 2013 Winners

Charles W. Chase, Jr. (pictured right) Chief Industry Consultant Demand Solu3ons SAS Ins3tute

Alan Milliken (pictured le`) Senior Manager -‐ Supply Chain Educa3on BASF Corpora3on



IBF Dubai (pictured right)

IBF Sconsdale (pictured Le`)

IBF Event Photo’s



Visit the IBF’s Website: www.ibf.org

Phone: +1.516.504.7576 Email: [email protected]

Thank You -‐ Get Social with IBF

LinkedIn: hnp://bit.ly/4p52bV Twiner: hnp://twiner.com/DemandPlanning Facebook: hnp://facebook.com/DemandPlanning IBF Blog: hnp://demand-‐planning.com Google+: hnps://plus.google.com/102918104859511378565/

Anish Jain Email: [email protected] Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/anishkjain/



IBF BOARD OF ADVISORS



IBF Board of Advisors John Gallucci Senior Director of Planning Pinnacle Foods Group Curtis Brewer, CPF Head of Consumer Forecasting Bayer Cropscience Mark Covas Senior Director of Demand Planning Georgia-Pacific Alan Milliken, CPF Global Business Process Education Manager BASF Corporation

Dr. Larry Lapide Research Affiliate MIT Steve Tribou VP of Account Planning Carter’s/Oshkosh Richard Herrin, CPF Director of Supply Chain Georgia Gulf Corporation/ Axiall Jay Nearnberg Senior Director Global Demand Planning Novartis



IBF Board of Advisors (Con3nued)

Dr. Barry Keating Professor University of Notre Dame

Max Colao Executive Director – New Products Marketing AMGEN Dr. Alex Safavi Director of Forecasting Rockwell Collins

Grant Hoffman, CPF Vice President of Supply Chain Motorola Mobility/ Google

Randy Wilp Leader of Global Commercial Forecasting Merck & Co., Inc.

Dr. Chaman L. Jain Chief Editor, Journal of Business

Forecasting (JBF) Professor, St. John’s University

(New York)

italy may 2014_v3-ibf

Business

fostering demand planning

forecas3ng func3on

growth of demand planning

sop eec3veness

rights reserved agenda

rights reserved consumers

rights reserved support

planning performance