stanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)

stanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU)Kazm Gkhan ELGNDirectorMarch 20, 2006

DEVELOPMENT AND DISASTERTHROUGHOUT THE WORLD;The natural disasters caused loss of 1.5 million lives in the last 20 years. While 15% of the population exposed to risk is in the developed countries, 1.8% loss of life occur in these countries. 94% of natural disasters take place in developing countries. 98% of the population affected from natural disasters live in these countries.

DEVELOPMENT AND DISASTERcontinueTHROUGHOUT THE WORLD;

Annual GDP loss in developing countries is between 2-15%.The economic loss in developing countries is 20 times as much as developed countries.The avarage annual loss resulting from disasters in 1990s USD 63 billion. The annual loss resulting from disasters in 2050 is estimated as USD 300 billion.

TURKEY AND NATURAL DISASTERS EarthquakesTurkey is one of the most active regions in the world in terms of seismicity.70% of the population live in seismically active areas. 66% of the country is located on the active fault line.64% of total disaster losses and 75% of damaged buildings in the last century are due to earthquakes. FloodsMainly take place in coastal area and exacerbated by deforestration, erosion and uncontrolled development.15% of total disaster losses are due to floods. Avarage annual loss is over USD 100 million. Landslides25% of country territory is exposed to landslides.11% of total population is located within this area. 16% of total disaster losses are due to landslides.

Earthquake Toll in Turkey

The estimated avarage annual direct economic loss in the last decade is over USD 1 billion.Frequency of earthquakes over 5.5 M per annum: 0.76 (6th in the world)Annual loss of life due to disasters: 950 (3rd in the world)Loss of life per capita (million): 15,58 (4th in the world)Avarage population exposed to disasters per annum: 2.745.757 (8th in the world)Loss of life per capita exposed to disasters (million): 346 (4th in the world)

DAMAGE

More than 77,000 heavily damaged buildings Damage in public buildings Damaged and unutilized infrastructure Complexity in building damage assesmentsCOMMUNICATION

Interruption in communicationPhone lines being out of service in initial hoursRESPONSE

Insufficiency in organization and coordination Chaotic environment Bureaucracy; problems faced in official procedures and permission Inefficiency in search and rescue activities at night due to poor illumination Insufficiency in logistic support Complexity caused by amateur rescue groups and volunteers lacking the necessary health and building structure informationLessons from 1999 Marmara EarthquakeECONOMIC LOSSES

USD 10-15 billion primary economic loss 5-7% of Turkeys GNP

stanbul13-14 million people, 20% of Turkeys population, live in stanbul. More than 40% of Turkish GNP is generated in the region.Comparable seismic risk degree with San Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 30 years is greater than %50. Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 10 years is greater than %20.Impacts after a probable 7.5 Richter scale earthquake in Istanbul; Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000 injured-heavily injured people, 400.000 lightly injured people direct economic loss ~30 billion US $

Disaster Preparedness of IstanbulUnder the Principles of Comprehensive Disaster ManagementEmergency ManagementCommunication SystemsEmergency Mng. Info. Sys.Emergency Response CapacityLegal IssuesRegulation on Soil ImprovementTransfer of Development RightsInfrastructure/LifelinesTraining Airports, harbors Highways, bridges Natural gas Electricity Water Sewage OthersCultural Heritage/ Historical Monum.Superstructure/ BuildingsPublic BuildingsResidential/ Commercial BuildingsIndustrial Estates / FactoriesPublic AwarenessPrivate SectorBuilding Inspection LawCondominium LawRetrofitting RegulationDecision makersPublic OfficialsDevelopment LawDisaster Insurance Ministry of Culture and Tourism Gen. Dir. of FoundationsMetropollitan Mun.Turkish Grand National AssemblyPrivate PropertyInventoryPrioritizationMulti-hazard risk assesmentCooperation (historians, architects, international practices, int. Agreements..)Pilot StudiesResearch Socio-economic Willingness of participation Environmental impact

Public BuildingsDisaster Preparedness of IstanbulUnder the Principles of Comprehensive Disaster ManagementResidential / Commercial BuildingsMicrozonationBuilding AssesmentPhysical PlanningReconstructionDensity Control New Settlement Areas Satellite cities Hospitals Schools / universities Student Dormitories Fire-brigades Police OtherEmergency ManagementLegal IssuesInfrastructure/LifelinesTrainingCultural Heritage/ Historical Monum.Superstructure / BuildingsIndustrial Facilities / Factories Organized Industrial Region Industrial Zones Big industrial factories Refineries LPG storage stations LPG and oil stations causing danger in city center Industrial Facilities to be relocated to suburbs acc. to Land Use Plan (1/5.000) Retrofitting/ Urban RegenerationPrioritizationAssesment Retrofitting Reconstruction

Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)Country / Region: Turkey / IstanbulProject Duration: 5 YearsImplementation: Istanbul Special Provincial Administration / Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU)Finance: World BankLoan Amount : USD 400 million (310 million Euro)

GOALSStrengthening institutional and technical capacity of emergency management.Increasing emergency preparedness and response awareness.Retrofitting/Reconstruction of priority public buildings.Vulnerability inventory and project design for cultural and historical heritage assets.Taking supportive measures for the efficient implementation of development law and building codes.

ISMEP stanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness ProjectEnhancing Emergecy PreparednessEmergency Communication Sys.Emergency Management Inf. Sys.Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of AYMEnforcement ofBuilding CodesSeismic Risk Mitigation for Priority Public FacilitiesUS$ 7,66 millionUpgrading the Emer. Res. Cap. in the stanbul Metro. RegionPublic Awar. and Neighborhood Community VolunteersUS$ 32,84 millionUS$ 14,64 millionUS$ 9,77 millionUS$ 8,45 millionRetrofitting/Reconstruction of Priority Public FacilitiesRisk Assessment for Lifelines and Vital InfrastructureRisk Assessment of Historical & Cultural Heritage BuildingsUS$ 2,45 millionUS$ 305,62 millionUS$ 2,83 millionPublic AwarenessDevelopment of The Regulatory FrameworkVoluntary Accreditation and Training of EngineersUS$ 0,56 millionUS$ 0,23 millionUS$ 1,20 millionStreamlining of Build. Permits Issuance ProceduresUS$ 5,55 million

Chart1

73.3

310.9

7.54

TED

ALLOCATION OF LOAN AMOUNT BY COMPONENTS

$310,90 79%

$7,542%

$73,3019%

GENEL

Enhancing Emergency Preparedness (Component A)$73.30

Seismic Risk Mitigation for Priority Public Buildings (Component B)$310.90

Enforcement of Building Codes (Component C)$7.54

Etkin olarakUygulanmas (7.54)391.74

GENEL

PROJE BLEENLERNN DAILIMI

$73,3019%

$7,542%

$310,90 79%

ABLEEN

Haberleme Sistemleri$32.84

Acil Durum Bilgi Sistemi$7.66

Mdahale Kapasitesinin Glendirilmes$14.64

AYMnin Kurumsal Kapasitesinin Glen$9.77

Bilinlendirme ve eitim$8.45

ABLEEN

32.84

7.66

14.64

9.77

8.45

A BLEEN BTE (MLYON DOLAR)

$7,66 10%

$14,64 20%

$9,7713%

$8,4512%

$32,8445%

BBILESEN

ncelikli Kamu Binalarnn Glendirilmesi$305.62

Altyap risk deerlendirmesi$2.45

Tarihi Yaplarn risk deerlendirmesi$2.83

BBILESEN

305.62

2.45

2.83

B BLEEN (MLYON DOLAR)

$305,62 98%

$2,45 1%

$2,831%

CBILESENI

Halkn Bilinlendirilmesi$0.23

Mevzuat erevesinin Gelitirilmesi$0.56

Mhendislerin Eitimi$1.20

naat ruhsat verme yntemlerinin izlenmesi$5.55

CBILESENI

0.23

0.56

1.2

5.55

C BLEEN (MLYON DOLAR)

$5,55 74%

$1,20 16%

$0,567%

$0,23 3%

PRIORITIZATION OF PUBLIC BUILDINGS IN ISTANBUL

Approximately 2500 public buildings prioritized,

Criteria set for each sector,

HospitalsSchoolsAdministrative BuildingsSocial Service BuildingsDormitories

Prioritization Criteria for Schools

No.

CRITERIA

Score

1.

Accessibility during Disaster (x0.10)

Access between 0-100

2.

Technical Features of Building (x0.40)

Construction Year (x0.20)

(a)before 1965 (100)

(b) between 1965-1980 (60)

(c) after 1980

(40)

Number of story (x0.20)

(a) > 5 story (100)

(b) 3-4 story (60)

(c) 1-2 story (20)

3.

Distance to Epicenter (x0.10)

Distance to Fault Line >20km. (40)

Distance to Fault Line

PRIORITIZATION CRITERIA Accessibility during disaster Road priority

Sheet1

Accessibility during disasterIsolation risk caused by road blockage

NoYes

Road PriorityPrimary Roads10050

Secondary Roads8040

Roads6020

Sheet2

Sheet3

Prioritization CriteriaDistance from fault line

Prioritization CriteriaImportance of Schools in Disaster Management Plan

The buildings in Disaster Management Plans

Special features like capacity, open space, accessibility etc.

Prioritized Public Buildings

Sheet1

InvestmentSaving (resistance to collapse)Saving (including property)

New Construction5%1:201:40

Existing Building25%1:41:8

Buildingsno.

1. Hospitals308

2. Polyclinics241

3. Schools1,783

4. Administrative Buildings68

5. Dormitories46

6. Social Service Buildings27

TOTAL2,473

Sheet2

Sheet3

Seismic Risk Mitigation for Priority Public Buildings

Vulnerability Assessment

Retrofitting

Reconstruction

No. Of Buildings to be retrofitted

Turkce

ncelikli Kamu Binalarnn Glendirilmesi iin Ayrlan Btenin Sektrlere Gre Dalm

(glendirmenin m2 birim maliyeti dikkate alnmtr)

SEKTRLERSectrlere ayrlan Bte (%)Ayrlan Bte (US$Milyon)Glendirmenin Birim Maliyeti (US$/m2)Glendirilecek Binalarn naat Alan (m2)Toplam naat Alan (m2)Sektre katks (%)

No.Ad[A][B]=US$250*[A]/100[C][D]=[B]/[C][E][F]=[D]/[E]

1Tedavi Kurumlar (Hastaneler)3075.0

2Semt Poliklinikleri512.5

3Okullar40100.0

4dari1537.5

5renci Yurtlar512.5

6Sosyal Hizmetler512.5

Total100250.0

Ingilizce

Sectoral Allocation of Retrofitting Budget (Using Unit Cost of Retrofitting per Floor Area)

SECTORSSectoral Budget (%)Allocated Budget (US$Million)Unit Cost of Retrofitting (US$/m2)Floor Area of Buildings to be Retrofitted (m2)Total Floor Area of Buildings in a Long List for Istanbul (m2)Contribution to Sector (%)

[A][B]=US$250*[A]/100[C][D]=[B]/[C][E][F]=[D]/[E]

Hospital3075.0

Clinicks512.5

Schools40100.0

Administration1537.5

Student Dormitory512.5

Solcial Service512.5

Total100250.0

Sheet2

Total no. of Buildings

NoSectorsAllocated Budget (%)Allocated Budget (US$Million)Unit cost of retrofitting (US$/m2)No. Of buildings to be retrofittedPrioritized Pub. Build.Contribution (%)

1Hospitals38.75116.252001303080.42

2Polyclinics0.752.25100142410.06

3Schools481441005981,7830.34

4Administrative Buildings82410045680.66

5Dormitories3910026460.57

6Social Service1.54.510027271.00

Total1003008402,4730.34

&C&"Arial,Kaln"&14ncelikli Kamu Binalarnn Glendirilmesi iin Ayrlan Btenin Sektrlere Gre Dalm

Sheet3

Contributions of ISMEP Project:

Prevention of potential loss of life. Mitigation of social, economic and financial effects of a possible earthquake.

Formation of a model for the design and implementation of other projects and activities within the field of disaster management.

Creation of a model to improve emergency management capacities of local governments. ISMEP PROJECT

Let us all be;

pro-active, strategic, comprehensive &try to prevent or mitigate

Thank you...