SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOURISM IN CHINA:

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

DR JULIE JIE WEN SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND

PSYCHOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN SYDNEY

AUSTRALIA

Issues to Be Covered in This Presentation

• Tourism in China: overview

• Dominance of the coastal areas in major tourism indicators

• Implications of regional disparity

China’s Inbound Tourism Arrivals(m) Receipts(US$b) Rooms(m)

1986 22.8 1.53 0.15

1996 51.1 10.2 0.59

1999 72.8 14.1 0.89

2000 83.4 16.2 0.95

2010 98.6 19.1 1.20

2020 forecast: 130 mn

(-NTA) What implications from these figures?

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Coastal and Inland China• China’s coastal area: three municipalities & nine

provinces; the remaining 19 localities are ‘inland’ or ‘interior’

Figure 1 Map of China

12 coastal localities

three municipalities and nine provinces: Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan.

Proportion of the coastal areas in China’s tourism distribution

Receipts arrivals employees rooms

1986 93.5 85.7 83.3 78.1

1992 89.5 84.0 77.4 71.2

1998 84.8 78.9 72.9 70.2

2006 85 80 59 58

2012 78 72 53 5

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Regional distribution and Gini coefficient

• Gini: indication of the level of inequality in distribution. 0: complete equality; 1: complete inequality

• Would Gini get lower as economy grows?

• Regional convergence or divergence?

• Gini: indication of the level of inequality in distribution. 0: complete equality; 1: complete inequality

• Would Gini get lower as economy grows?

• Regional convergence or divergence?

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Trends over 28 yearsTable 2 Gini Coefficients for Major International Tourism Indicators in China

Receipts Tourist arrivals

Number of hotel employees

Number of hotel rooms

1986 0.8374 0.7577 0.7344 0.6344 1988 0.7297 0.7276 0.5766 0.5978 1990 0.7988 0.7412 0.5941 0.5236 1992 0.7472 0.7049 0.6090 0.5361 1994 0.7446 0.6706 0.5815 0.5208 1996 0.7443 0.6701 0.5812 0.5203 1998 0.6903 0.6428 0.5810 0.5128 2000 0.6881 0.6387 0.4432 0.4667 2002 0.6728 0.6361 0.3957 0.3956 2004 0.6635 0.6277 0.3897 0.3901 2006 0.6631 0.628 0.382 0.382 2008 0.6636 0.626 0.385 0.383 2010 2012

0.671 0.668

0.624 0.625

0.382 0.383

0.378 0.381

Interpreting the figures• Decreasing Gini coefficient for tourism distribution in China• Increase in both real term and proportion for major indicators

for tourism in inland China• Improvement in infrastructure and tourist facilities in inland• Growth of nature based tourism• Encouraging domestic tourism• Regional convergence in tourism versus divergence in the

general economy