Issues in the preparation of GHG projections for agriculture and land

use, land-use change and forestry

Summary of Discussions of

Break Out Group

7 September 2004

Participation in Group

• 10 Parties and the European Community

• Received 4 presentations (Irl, Fin, Nz, Dk)

• Balance of expertise in agriculture

Key methodological issues for agriculture

• Projections of activity levels and emission factors;

• Use of specialized models

• Modelling impact of GHG-related factors – methodological problems and solutions

• Presentation of main drivers for GHG emissions projections

Projections of activity levels and emission factors (EF)

• Consider possible future changes in EFs• Provide information on policies and measures to

abate ammonia emissions• Emerging importance on sensitivity analysis for

projections• Time frame for projections

Use of specialized models

• Data and models used in inventory should also be used in projections, if possible

• Focus on good scientific practice rather than specialized models or models per se

• Group unable to recommend use of any specialized models

• Multi-model approach desirable

Modelling impact of GHG-related factors – methodological problems and solutions

• Availability of data, getting statistics on specific issues

• Could also use bottom-up approach to include policies and measures in projection model

• Indirect effects of policies and measures• Iteration between models to refine projections

Presentation of main drivers for GHG emissions projections

• Drivers not only related to projections but also to the inventory

• Recommend list of emission drivers, with reference to CRFs

• Textural interpretation of drivers and context • What is the level of detail on information to be

provided in NC ?

Key methodological issues for LULUCF

• Specific difficulties related to GHG projections for LULUCF

• Presentation of main drivers behind projections• Exchange of information on available methods

and models and sharing of solutions adopted by Parties

Specific difficulties related to GHG projections for LULUCF

• Projections in forestry – common in the industry• When there is a good inventory, then projections

not an issue; changes in carbon stocks very low• Challenges in tracking changes in land use and

changes in carbon stocks from land use change• Activity data needs improvement

Main drivers behind projections

• Derive a list of variables (eg. Growth rates, tree density, biomass expansion factors) to guide better projections

Exchange of information on available methods and models

• Consider the linkage between agriculture and forestry for modelling. Existence of forest inventory

• Existing data sets on forest inventory, maps, remote sensing – allows simple extrapolation

• Consider also expert opinion in projections model

• GPG-LULUCF improves inventories, hence projections

• Group unable to elaborate further on LULUCF projections and provide solutions

Institutional Arrangements

• Importance of co-operation between institutions – to overcome methodological issues and problems

– to estimate effects of policies and measures

– contribute to building of projection estimates