DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

23.11.23.11. 2012, 2012, ForumForum

Iskorištavanje obnovljivih izvora energije, energetska učinkovitost i smanjenje emisija

stakleničkih plinova kao pokretač razvoja “zelene ekonomije” u Hrvatskoj do 2050.

Goran Krajačić, Tomislav Pukšec, Boris Ćosić, Tomislav Novosel, Iva Ridjan, Neven Duić

Sveučilište u Zagrebu - Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnjeZagreb, Croatia

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

COCO22 emissions – 2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase? emissions – 2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase?IEA Energy Technology Perspectives

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Fully economically viable but not being done?Fully economically viable but not being done?IEA Energy Technology Perspectives

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Fossil fuel Fossil fuel subsidies – 10 subsidies – 10 times bigger than times bigger than RES subsidiesRES subsidies

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Estimate of Fossil Fuel-related SubsidiesEstimate of Fossil Fuel-related Subsidies

Country Energy related subsidies as % of GDP

Albania 7-8%Bosnia-Herzegovina 9-10%

Croatia 5-6%Macedonia 8-9%Montenegro 10-11%

Serbia 7-9%Kosovo 35-36%

Aleksandar Kovacevic, UNDP: Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electricity price = average cost

DemandSupply

HE

NECoal

Import Gas

Fuel oil

Marginal cost

Base load

Wholesale price

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electricity price = average cost

Demand

Supply

HE

NECoal

ImportGas

Fuel oilMarginal cost

Peak load

Wholesale price

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Security of energy supply• Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030

Employment and regional development policies

• Deindustrialization and trade liberalization• “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our

climate change commitments”

Mitigation of global warmingEnvironmental protectionSustainable development

EU energy context

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

80% lower GHG emissions by 2080% lower GHG emissions by 205500 Decarbonising powerDecarbonising power

RES 40%-100% + nuclear + CCSRES 40%-100% + nuclear + CCS

Buildings –Buildings – nearly zero energy fromnearly zero energy from 2018 2018 Electrification of transportElectrification of transport

Roadmap 2050Roadmap 2050 RE-thinking 2050: 100% renewableRE-thinking 2050: 100% renewable

Torwards 2050

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Decoupling is possible – Danish caseDecoupling is possible – Danish case

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

BuildingsBuildings nearly zero energy from 2018 nearly zero energy from 2018 Reconstruction rate 1-3% per yearReconstruction rate 1-3% per year

Transport Transport CO2 emission regulationCO2 emission regulation Electrification of personal carsElectrification of personal cars Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo, Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo,

shipping and aviationshipping and aviation Modal shiftModal shift

Industry, appliances, lighting - BATIndustry, appliances, lighting - BAT

Energy efficiency

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Izuzetni potencijal za energetske uštede u narednom periodu!Izuzetni potencijal za energetske uštede u narednom periodu!

Novogradnja Novogradnja strogo pridržavanje postojećih i svih budućih strogo pridržavanje postojećih i svih budućih propisa (nakon 2020 prijelaz na skoro pa energetski neutralnu propisa (nakon 2020 prijelaz na skoro pa energetski neutralnu gradnju)gradnju)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

PJ

Year

Korisna energija - referentni scenarij Korisna energija bez skoro pa energetski neutralnih zgrada

Zadovoljiti lokalno OiE (scenarij 20% porasta specifičnog životnog prostora)

Buildings – energy for heating

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Buildings – energy for heating

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

PJ

Korisna energija s 3% godišnje obnove Korisna energija s 2% godišnje obnoveKorisna energija s 1% godišnje obnove

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Buildings – energy demand

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Buildings – fuel mix (heat pumps scenario)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Tekuća goriva Ugljen Biomasa Solarna PTV Područno grijanje Prirodni plin Električna energija

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Transport – fuel demand

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Transport – fuel mix

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Decoupling is possible – Danish caseDecoupling is possible – Danish case

Final demand

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

BuildingsBuildings District heating, heat pumps, solar thermal, District heating, heat pumps, solar thermal,

PV, biomass, grid as storagePV, biomass, grid as storage

Transport Transport Electrification of personal carsElectrification of personal cars Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo, Biofuels and synthetic fuels for road cargo,

shipping and aviationshipping and aviation

IndustryIndustry Electricity, biomass and waste, synthetic fuelsElectricity, biomass and waste, synthetic fuels

Energy supply

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Power supplyPower supply Wind, PV, hydro, biomass and wasteWind, PV, hydro, biomass and waste

Storage Storage Heat storage - integration of heat and power Heat storage - integration of heat and power

systemssystems Electric vehicles and other flexible demandElectric vehicles and other flexible demand Synthetic fuels (?)Synthetic fuels (?) Pumped hydro storagePumped hydro storage

Energy supply

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electricity demand Electricity demand 2050 (TWh)2050 (TWh)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electricity capacity Electricity capacity ((MWMW))

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2020 2030 2040 2050

MW

TE + CHP plin TE UgljenMale hidroelektrane Protočne hidroelektraneAkumulacijske hidroelektrane Reverzibilne hidroelektraneGeotermalne elektrane CHP otpad, biomasa i bioplinVjetroelektrane Solarne fotonaponske elektrane

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electricity fuel mix Electricity fuel mix 2050 (TWh)2050 (TWh)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Primary energy supply Primary energy supply 2010-2050 (TWh)2010-2050 (TWh)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Yearly cost of energy sectorYearly cost of energy sector

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2020 2030 2040 2050

M€

Godišnji investicijski trošak

Fiksni trošak

Varijabilni trošak

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

31031

58493

125134

191810

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

2020 2030 2040 2050

radna mjesta potrebna za vođenje i održavanje

postrojenja/opreme i proizvodnju goriva

Direktna rdna mjesta u

idustriji

za proizvodnju opreme i

izgradnju postrojenja (iskazani u čovjek/godina)

Izgradnja postrojenja i proizvodnja opreme

Vođenje, održavanje i proizvodnja goriva

Jobs in energy generation sectorJobs in energy generation sector

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Tri razine generiranih radnim mjesta:•Direktno generirana u ind. građevinskog materijala•Indirektno generirana u sektorima prateće industrije•Radna mjesta inducirana rastom spomenutih industrija u neindustrijskim sektorima

Jobs in residential construction sectorJobs in residential construction sector

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

New RES Directive

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

New RES Directive

EU electricity generation installed capacity net change,

2000-2011 [MW], EWEA

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Electricity price = marginal cost

DemandSupply

HE

NE

Coal

Import Gas

Fuel oil

Marginal cost

Base load

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Demand

Supply

HE

NE

Coal

ImportsGas

Fuel oil

Marginal costBase load – windy night

Wind

Electricity price = marginal cost

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Coal + wind

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Wind: Coal vs. gas?

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

PV revolution

MW

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

Wind: Coal vs. gas?

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

ZaključciZaključci

Povećanje energetske efikasnosti nije Povećanje energetske efikasnosti nije samo kreativno knjigovodstvo, nego samo kreativno knjigovodstvo, nego stvarno dolazi kroz propise o efikasnosti stvarno dolazi kroz propise o efikasnosti vozila i zgrada, te uređaja, te je potencijal vozila i zgrada, te uređaja, te je potencijal za veliki broj radnih mjestaza veliki broj radnih mjesta

Integracijom električnog, toplinskog i Integracijom električnog, toplinskog i transportnog energetskog sustava, uz transportnog energetskog sustava, uz skladištenje energije moguće je doći blizu skladištenje energije moguće je doći blizu 100% obnovljivom energetskom sustavu u 100% obnovljivom energetskom sustavu u HR do 2050HR do 2050

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

ZaključciZaključci

Ostaje problem cestovnog teretnog, Ostaje problem cestovnog teretnog, brodskog i avionskog transporta koji ne brodskog i avionskog transporta koji ne mogu biti elektrificiranimogu biti elektrificirani

Proizvodnja sintetskih goriva elektrolizom Proizvodnja sintetskih goriva elektrolizom CO2 je trenutno najzanimljivija ideja u CO2 je trenutno najzanimljivija ideja u znanosti – nije još spremna za primjenuznanosti – nije još spremna za primjenu

Bez sintetskih goriva možemo doći do Bez sintetskih goriva možemo doći do 80% obnovljivih energetskih sustava što je 80% obnovljivih energetskih sustava što je bio zadatak na početku …. bio zadatak na početku ….

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!!THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!!Hvala na paHvala na pažnji! žnji!

Neven.DuicNeven.Duic@fsb.hr@fsb.hr