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ISF:RESEARCHAND CONSULTANCY

THINK.CHANGE.DO

INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES

South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030. Report for Greenpeace Africa.Jay Rutovitz , 18th August 2010

Introduction to ISF

Overview of analysis

The energy scenarios

Methodology

Employment results

South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030

Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF)

Research institute at University of Technology Sydney, set up in 1996, with mission:

To create change towards a sustainable future through independent, project-based research

ISF undertook analysis of the employment effects of the Greenpeace International Energy [R]evolution: Working for the Climate, Greenpeace International, 2009,

and Energy sector jobs to 2030: a global analysis, Jay Rutovitz and Alison Atherton, 2009

Greenpeace Africa asked us to analyse the employment effects of the South African Energy [R]evolution.

Overview of our analysis ISF analysed SA Energy [R]evolution for Greenpeace

Africa, looking at three scenarios Business as usual case derived from IEA 2007 projection Energy [R]evolution scenario, which achieves 60% emissions

reduction by 2050 Added in the Growth Without Constraints scenario (from Long

Term Mitigation Scenarios)

We included one scenario with enhanced renewable manufacturing, and export to the rest of Africa

Electricity sector jobs only Direct jobs only (does not include jobs in accommodation,

catering, or from spending wages)

The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030

2010 2015 2020 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution

Elec

tric

ity T

Wh/

yea

r

Coal Gas, oil & diesel Nuclear Renewable Efficiency

The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030

2010 2015 2020 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution

Elec

tric

ity T

Wh/

yea

r

Coal Gas, oil & diesel Nuclear Renewable Efficiency

Renewable electricity in 2030 Energy

[R]evolution

GWC

IEA REF

36%

1%

4% Greenhouse emissions 2030 compared to 2010 Energy

[R]evolution

GWC

IEA REF

- 21%

+ 48%

+ 47%

Methodology - inputs

Employment factors (jobs per MW)UNCERTAINTY

SA factors where possible, otherwise OECD factors + multiplier.

Adjustment for cost decline. Energy efficiency job factor (only for the reduction in

electricity consumption)- Includes a proportion of energy efficiency achieved

by solar water heating

Employment factors – key inputs

Construction jobs per megawatt (MW) capacity increase Operations and maintenance (O&M) jobs per MW

installed Fuel jobs per gigawatt hour (GWh)

- For coal this means coal mining jobs per GWh South African factors for

– Coal mining– Coal construction– Coal, nuclear and hydro generation O&M– Solar water heating

Employment factor - adjustment from OECD

Labour intensity tends to be higher in countries with lower GDP per capita.

One method: multiply OECD factors by the ratio of labour productivity* in SA to labour productivity in the OECD. This would mean multiplying by 4.6.

We used the weighted average of the ratio between local factors and OECD employment factors, which is 2.15.

Conservative approach.

* GDP per person employed

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolutionWithout Constraints

EfficiencyEfficiency - SWH

OceanSolar thermalGeothermalPV

WindHydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Oil & diesel

Gas

Coal

JOBS

Coal exports

Jobs in the energy sector - results

Jobs in the energy sector - results

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030




WindHydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Oil & diesel

Gas

Coal

JOBS

Coal exports

IEA REF + 27%

31,900 jobs 6,700 jobs

Compared to GWC + 5%

What if we don’t include coal exports?

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030




WindHydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Oil & diesel

Gas

Coal

JOBS

Coal exports

IEA REF + 27%

31,900 jobs 6,700 jobs

Compared to GWC + 5%

Jobs excluding coal exports

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030




WindHydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Oil & diesel

Gas

Coal

JOBS

Coal exports

IEA REF + 49%Compared to

46,900 jobs 21,700 jobs

GWC + 18%

Coal

Gas and oil

Nuclear

Fossil CHP

Biomass

Hydro

Wind

PV

Geothermal

Solar thermal

Ocean

Renewable CHP

Energy [R]evolutionTotal jobs 113,000

Renewable 51% of jobs

IEA Reference Total jobs 74,000


Growth Without Constraints

Total jobs 70,000 Renewable 3% of jobs




Total jobs 70,000 Renewable 3% of jobs

IEA Reference Total jobs 74,000



Renewable 51% of jobsCoal

Gas and oil

Nuclear

Fossil CHP

Biomass

Hydro

Wind

PV

Geothermal

Solar thermal

Ocean

Renewable CHP



Coal

Gas and oil

Nuclear

Fossil CHP

Biomass

Hydro

Wind

PV

Geothermal

Solar thermal

Ocean

Renewable CHP



Renewable and total jobs at 2020*

* Excluding coal exports

Enhanced manufacturing scenario

Standard analysis assumes 20% components for all energy technologies are manufactured in South Africa

In enhanced scenario increased to 50% by 2030 (70% for solar water heating)

Assumes South Africa exports components for 30% of the growth in renewable energy in the rest of Africa by 2030

Energy [R]evolution with enhanced manufacturing – jobs results

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Manufacturingexports

Construction andmanufacturing

Efficiency

Coal exports

Fuel

Operations and maintenance

JOBS

Energy[R]evolution

Energy [R]evolution enhanced manufacturing


IEA Reference

IEA REF + 56%

65,600 jobs

40,400 jobs

33,700 jobs

GWC + 28%

Compared to

Conclusion The Energy [R]evolution has the potential to create more

employment than business as usual. Substantial benefit compared to the IEA reference

scenario, net increase of 78,000 jobs by 2030 (46,000 in the IEA Reference).

Even if SA does not take action to reduce greenhouse gases, coal exports are vulnerable to action elsewhere.

Developing a strong renewable sector ‘future proofs’ SA economy; enhanced renewable scenario 56% compared to business as usual.

South Africa needs to decide whether to be an importer or an exporter of renewable technology in coming decades.

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