isabelle leleu, medde
TRANSCRIPT
www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr
Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy
France – UK Workshop on Resilience to Severe Weather
21 October 2015
Flood forecasting in France
Isabelle LELEUSCHAPI
(Central Service for Hydrometeorology and Support to Flood Forecasting)
General Directorate for Risk Prevention
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Flood Forecasting in France
The « Vigicrues » system today
Plans for tomorrow
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The « Vigicrues » system today (1) A flood vigilance map : provides risk levels on the river
sections that are monitored by the State services (~22000 km)
4 colours used :
With vigilance reports, at both national and local levels, when possible including forecasts (expected values of water level or flow)
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The « Vigicrues » system today (2)
Access to real time data
> 1500 water level or flow stations
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The « Vigicrues » system today (3)
The vigilance information is updated at least twice a day (at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm)
Vigilance maps and reports (with forecasts) are made available to the public via the Internet :
http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr
They are simultaneously pushed to the civil security and local authorities
→ The « Vigicrues » system is regularly updated and extended in a process of continous improvement and progress, and through feedback on past events.
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Plans for tomorrow (1)
The "Vigicrues" system currently gives satisfaction but improvement needs were expressed by different types of users :
Publish graphs combining water level (or flow) observations and forecasts
Predicting areas likely to be flooded (in connection with the water level forecasts)
Better warn people about the risk of flash floods
Develop custom services on mobile
→ Major projects have been carried out for several years to meet these needs.
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Plans for tomorrow (2)Predicting areas likely to be flooded
Flooded area scenarios in connection with 3 water levels at a given hydrometric station
Mapping of potential flooded areas related to Custines station
(Moselle river in France)
(scan25® from IGN ; potential flooded areas from
©DREAL Lorraine / SPC Meuse-Moselle)
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Prefects are informed
Plans for tomorrow (3)Better warn people about the risk of flash floods
Observed rainfall amount (from radar data)
Automatic hydrological modelingin each river basin and comparison of predicted flow with critical thresholds
River basins expected to
exceed threshold
Automated Flash Flood warning Automated Flash Flood warning sent to concerned municipalitiessent to concerned municipalities
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Plans for tomorrow (4) Early 2016 :
Graphs combining observations and forecasts on « Vigicrues » website
Potential flooded area maps produced for > 20 % of our forecasting points (~1400 municipalities are already concerned)→ first access restricted to local authorities
End of 2016 : Opening of the automated Flash Flood warning service
Later (2017/2018) : A more ergonomic « Vigicrues » website offering a wider range
of services
With custom services on mobile
→ To better assist the national and local authorities, communities, economic actors, stakeholders and individuals in crisis management
www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr
Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy
Thank you !
Tarn river in Arthès (Tarn, France) - Nov 2011