IS THE INTERNET MOBILE? MEASUREMENTS FROM ASIA-PACIFIC

Michael.Minges@itu.intTelecommunication Development Bureau (BDT)

Opinions expressed may not reflect the views of the International Telecommunication Union or it members

International Telecommunications SocietyAsia-Australasian Regional Conference

Perth, Australia 22-24 June 2003

Contents

• Introduction• Advanced Asia-

Pacific Economies Overview

• Indicators– Usage– Users– Infrastructure– Pricing– Revenue

• Index• Recommendations

Some of the data is estimated or from 3rd parties.

When data only available for one operator, it is used as a proxy for entire economy.

Why measure?

• Mobile has passed fixed & Internet use growing– A logical marriage?

• Non-voice mobile use growing

• Commercial / regulatory / social / analytical implications

0

500

1'000

1'500

1982 88 94 2000

World telephone subscribers,

millions

Fixed Mobile

1'330

1'210

0

200

400

600

800

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

World Internet users, millions

Source: ITU.

What is Mobile Internet?

Browsing Internet from a mobile…

…or accessing Internet from a mobile network?

Overview of advanced Asia-Pacific mobile markets

• Mature– Taiwan, China first

economy in world to have more mobiles than people!

CDMA30%

GSM31%

PDC39%

Mobile cellular subscribers by

technology, advanced Asia-

Pacifc, 2002

Total = 155 million

89106

7868

58626768

Japan

New Zealand

Average

Korea (Rep.)

Australia

Singapore

HK, China

Taiwan, China

Mobile subscribers

per 100 inhabitants,

2002• Mixture of technologies

• Trendsetters in mobile data:– Korea (Rep.) launched

world’s first CDMA2000 1x 3G network in October 2000

– Japan launched world’s first W-CDMA 3G network in October 2001 Source: ITU.

Text messaging

• Not mobile Internet• Most intensely used

non-voice mobile application

• Possible indicator of potential mobile Internet use– Number of messages– Penetration (i.e., % of

subscribers that use it)• Wide variation in region

– Definitions? (e.g., sent & received, ‘junk’ SMS, etc.)

4

7

17

24

111

167

184

HongKong,China

Taiwan,China

Australia

NewZealand

Japan

Korea(Rep.)

Singapore

SMS per subscriber per

month,2002

Note: SMS = Short Message ServiceSource: ITU adapted from various reports.

Traffic: Minutes or Packets?

• Measure in two ways:– Time (minutes of

use)– Volume (kilobytes)

• Few operators publish this data

9 11

148

0

50

100

150

200

A M J J A S O N D

Voice

Data

25262728293031

A M J J A S O N D

DoCoMo (Japan), i-mode, KB/day/sub

Note: 2002. Data MOU is average connection to wireless data network regardless of charging system, time-based or packet-based. Source: KTF, DoCoMo.

KTF (Korea, Rep.), Avg. monthly minutes of use (MOU), 2002

Mobile phone Internet subscribersSubscribers browsing the Internet from their

mobile phone (e.g., Wireless Access Protocol (WAP), i-mode)

16.2%

78.7%

29.0%

44.1%

40.0%

32.3%

Subscribingto mobileInternet

UsingmobileInternet

Accessingpaid

content

Japan

Korea (Rep.)

As % of total mobile

subscribers, August 2002

Source: ITU adapted from Nomura Research Institute & Korea Network Information Center

81.0%

45.0%

7.4%

4.8%

2.9%

1.4%

1.2%

Japan

Korea(Rep.)

Singapore

Australia

Taiwan,China

NewZealand

HK, China

Mobile phone Internet

subscribers as % of total

mobile subscribers,

2002

Source: ITU adapted from various sources

What is an Internet user?

55.2

54.0

48.4

44.9

43.1

42.7

38.3

9.6

0 20 40 60

Korea(Rep.)

Singapore

NewZealand

Japan

HK, China

Australia

Taiwan,China

Internet users per 100 inhabitants, 2002

PC and mobile phone43%

PC only35%

Mobile phone only22%

Internet access usage method, Japan, 2002

Source: ITU adapted from Nomura Research Institute.Source: ITU.

Mobile phone only

High-speed mobile(e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000 1x, W-CDMA)

• Infrastructure indicator– Subscribers to high-speed

mobile data services– Coverage of high-speed

mobile Internet network• Comparability issues

– Not all high-speed networks same (GPRS, CDMA2000 1x, CDMA2000 1x EV/DO, W-CDMA)

– Some operators count handsets rather than subscribers

– A subscriber may not be using high-speed features

– Subscribers may be pay as you go

9.6

28.8

64

114

144

384

2000

2400

GSM/PDC

PDC-P

CDMA

GPRS

CDMA1xRTT

W-CDMAmoving

W-CDMAstationary

CDMA1xEV/DO

Theoretical data

transmission speedkbps

Source: ITU.

High-speed mobileSubscribers & Coverage

10097

90

60

22 26

75

93

99

100

9997

22

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Years after the launch of service

FOMA outdoor coverage

PDC outdoor coverage

PDC service launch

Mar. 1993

FOMA launch

Oct. 2001

51.1%

6.6%

6.4%

2.7%

2.3%

1.6%

0.3%

Korea(Rep.)

Japan

Singapore

HK, China

NewZealand

Taiwan,China

Australia

High-speed Internet

subscribers as % of total mobile

subscribers, 2002

Source: ITU adapted from DoCoMo.Source: ITU adapted from various sources.

Mobile data revenue

• Most popular metric among operators with almost all publishing

• True mobile Internet use is often not separated from message revenues

• May reflect high prices rather than intensity of use

• Two basic indicators:– Mobile data revenue as

% of total mobile revenue– Average Mobile Data

Revenue Per User (ARPU)

19.3%

13.0%

10.6%

10.0%

5.0%

2.9%

2.5%

Japan

Singapore

Korea(Rep.)

Australia

NewZealand

Taiwan,China

HK, China

Mobile data service as per cent of total

mobile revenue, 2002

Source: ITU adapted from various sources.

Mobile pricing

• Two ways of pricing:– Time (length of

period logged on). Generally used for low-speed access.

– Volume (amount of data transferred). Generally used for high-speed access.

• Can also have a subscription plan or “pay as you go”. $3.60

$5.23

$7.69

$8.07

$8.52

$13.19

Korea(Rep.)

Singapore

HK, China

Australia

Taiwan,China

NewZealand

One hour of WAP, circuit

switch access, US$,

2003

Source: ITU adapted from various sources.

High-speed mobile pricing

1 Megabyte (MB) is approximately equivalent to: – 250 emails

(of 200 words) – 20 emails with

attachments – 20 pages of

spreadsheets – 10 web pages

Source: Telstra $2.32

$3.70

$3.90

$5.78

$10.87

$12.46

$12.82

Singapore

NewZealand

Korea(Rep.)

Taiwan,China

Australia

Japan

HongKong,China

High-speed mobile Internet pricing, per MB,

US$, 2003

Source: ITU adapted from various sources.

Mobile Internet Index

• Which economy is doing best overall in mobile Internet?

• Helps to overcome limitations of different data by using a number of variables

• Indicators:– Mobile to Internet Ratio– SMS/sub/month– Mobile telephone Internet

users ratio– High-speed mobile

subscriber ratio– Mobile data revenue ratio

• Mobile Internet Divide

9

12

13

24

25

27

30

Korea(Rep.)

Singapore

Japan

NewZealand

Australia

HK, China

Taiwan,China

Mobile Internet ranking

Total score(Lower = Better)

Source: ITU.

Recommendations

• Agreement on standard list of mobile Internet indicators and definitions

• Government ICT agencies need to collect and disseminate the data (only Hong Kong, China and Taiwan, China publish limited mobile Internet statistics)

• National statistical offices should incorporate mobile Internet questions into ICT surveys

• If mobile is important, then why not PDAs and notebooks? If wireless important, then why not 802.11? So should WiFi also be included as a mobile Internet indicator (e.g., number of users, number of hotspots)?

Mobile Internet

user

Internet enabled cell phone(WAP/GPRS-CDMA2000 1x)

Coverage of high-speed network

Mobile subscriber

HH Surveys• % HH that use wireless to access Inet (mode

of connection)– HKG, 2’200 (via PC), 0.2%– Taiwan, 1%

• % HH using mobile phones to access Inet– Taiwan: mobile phones, 9%

• % individuals that use cellular phone to access Internet (both PC and cellphone; only cellphone)– HKG: 72’200 WAP phone, 2.5%– Japan: 14.8% via mobile phone only

• % of subscribers that use wireless to access Internet – Taiwan: 747’000 WAP and GPRS, 10%

Mobile Internet Data availability

☺KKKKKLKOR

KLL

☺KL

Surveys

KL☺☺L☺TWN

KKKLK LKSGP

KKKLLLNZL

KK☺☺KLJPN

KK☺☺L☺HKG

KKLLLKAUS

PricingRevenueInfra-structure

SubscribersTrafficSMS

☺ Generally available at economy level (from telecom regulator)

K Available from at least one operator

L No primary data available. Estimated or secondary source.

What is Mobile Internet?

3G licenses

1’399Feb-02Auction5Taiwan, China

165Apr-01Auction (Cancelled)#3Singapore

60Jan-01Auction (regional)4New Zealand

2’886Aug-01Beauty contest3Korea (Rep.)

FreeJun-00Beauty contest3Japan

128*Sep-01Auction (pre-qualify)4Hong Kong, China

579Mar-01Auction (regional)6Australia

Amount (US$ m) ~

Date awarded

MethodLicensesCountry

Note: ~ Total amount received for all licenses. Local currency converted at rate at date of license award. * Amount bid was HK$ 4.1 (US$ 0.5) million. In addition, licensees must pay minimum of HK$ 50 million per year or 5% of turnover. Amount shown reflects first five years. # Only one offer was made for each 3G spectrum right so licenses awarded to three bidders.