irlande rowena dwyer
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"La PAC dans tous ses Etats", conférence le 20 novembre 2014TRANSCRIPT
« La PAC dans tous ses États »Déclinaison de la PAC et impacts dans sept pays européens
Jeudi 20 novembre 2014
Ireland
Rowena Dwyer Chief Economist
Irish Farmers’ Association
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Number of farms – 139,800 ( o/w 125,000 SFP recipients)
Average farm size – 33ha
Grass‐based production system predominant
Average income from farming in 2013 ‐ €25,437
Ranging from €9,541 (cattle rearing) ‐ €62,994 (dairy)
Average industrial wage ‐ €33,000
Overview of Irish agriculture
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Livestock farming predominant
78,000 specialist beef producer► Suckler cow herd of 1.1 million
16,000 specialist dairy►Dairy cow herd of 1.1 million
13,000 specialist sheep►2.2m lamb disposals in 2013 (down from 2.7m in 2004)
5,000 specialist tillage
Many mixed enterprises– 17,000 mixed grazing/livestock/crops
Farm types
Land utilisation 2010 (Source: CSO)
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Farm fragmentation ►3.8 land parcels per farm►Relief from Capital Gains Tax for farm consolidation
Land mobility►Short‐term rental predominant►Taxation incentives to encourage long‐term leasing
Age‐profile ►51% >55, 6%<35 ►Resurgence in interest in farming
Government policy for growth of agriculture and agri‐food sector ►Food Harvest 2020►Agri‐taxation review 2014
Irish agriculture ‐ Other features
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Dairy sector ►Farmer cooperative ownership of processing sector►>90% of farmers full‐time
Beef and sheep sectors►Farmer cooperative ownership of mart (livestock trade) sector►Private ownership of processing sector►Almost 40% of beef farmers with off‐farm employment►30% of sheep farmers with off‐farm employment
Irish agriculture – other features
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Pillar I►Approximation model – applied at national level►Minimum payment of 60% of national average by 2019►Maximum payment of €700/ha by 2019►30% greening►3 % National Reserve►2% Young Farmer►0.2% (€3m) coupled payment for protein crops
Not implementing►Coupled payment for other sectors, redistribution model, small farmers, payments for natural constraint
Impact of new CAP – Irish implementation
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Pillar II►Payments for Areas of Natural Constraints
►Agri‐environment measures• Green Low Carbon Agri‐Environment Scheme • Locally‐Led Agri‐Environment Schemes
►Knowledge Transfer ‐ Discussion Groups
►On‐farm capital investment• Dairy equipment, handling facilities, nutrient storage• Enhanced grant aid for young farmers
►Targeted support for beef sector • Beef Data and Genomics Programme
►LEADER• Economic activity, social inclusion
Impact of new CAP – Irish implementation
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Total payments (pre‐reform)►€10,000 – average payment per farmer►2,000 ‐ Number of farmers with payments >€50,000
Pillar I ‐ Range of payments across Irish farms
Average payments per ha ‐ Sectors►All Farms ‐ €280►Dairy ‐ €306/ha►Cattle
►€270/ha (rearing)►€316/ha (finishing)
►Sheep ‐ €253/ha►Tillage ‐ €375/ha
(Est. based on UAA and SFP, Teagasc National Farm Survey 2012)
Distribution of payments per/ha – all farmers
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Linking income support to land area (entitlements) means that those with more land get more income support
‘Winners’ and ‘Losers’ in all categories of farming; impact at individual farm level of concern
Particular concern for farmers with higher payments from low income sectors (cattle)
Indicated most clearly by dependence on SFP for income (2013)►90‐104% of income – cattle sector►26%– dairy sector
Potential impact – Overall
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Farms with a higher standard output on average will redistribute payments to those with lower
On average reform takes income subsidy from farms with higher SO/ha and gives additional subsidy to farms with lower SO/ha ‐ Teagasc March 2014
Potential Impact ‐ Overall
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Income loss ‐Will not be replaced by increased market returns
Negative impact on production remains a significant concern –70% of cattle slaughtered produced by 15% of farmers
Decoupling of payments has to date not resulted in a large shift from one type of production system to another (e.g. beef to dairy)
Likely move towards more extensive production – (IFA survey 2011, 30% income drop scenario)
Potential move towards supporting other production systems –e.g. rearing of dairy herd replacements
Potential impact – Beef sector
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Critical mass concerns in event of fall in production►Impact on downstream industries, value of sector
►Impact on employment outside large urban areas
Measures to increase returns to sector►Discussion groups – peer learning►Beef Data and Genomics Scheme
►Producer organisations – beef sector prioritisation
Potential impact – Beef sector
Source: Prof A. Renwick, UCD, 2013
Distribution of Livestock Related Enterprises
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Dairy sector ►Almost 2/3 of dairy farmers will experience a payment loss from convergence►Impact on production arising from reform anticipated to be small as majority experiencing a (static) income change of <10%
►This group produces 90% of total milk output
Sheep sector►Gains concentrated in farms with lower output
►Over 30% of output is produced by those who will see an income loss of >10%, compared with 10% of output for those with an income gain of >10%
►No anticipated significant change in output from sheep sector
(Information derived from Teagasc analysis 2013)
Potential impact – other sectors
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CAP Mid‐term review ‐must take into account: ►Production impacts of reform – at sectoral level►Wider economic impacts of reform►Policy direction must be open to change if production loss a serious outcome of reform
Other policy issues►Balanced approach to trade deals – addressing the serious potential threat to beef sector of TTIP, Mercosur
►Marketing of product – attracting a premium for higher‐cost grass‐based production
►Regulation of food supply chain – Transparency of pricing, Negotiating power of primary producers
Final comments – The future
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Thank you for listening
Questions?