iris – the integrated risk framework for · pdf filecapitalising on operational data to...
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Capitalising on operational data to drive safety digitisation and automation
Andrew KILNER, Marta LLOBET LOPEZ, Brian HICKLING
Safety
March 2018
IRiS – The Integrated Risk Framework for Europe
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Risk assessment Safety monitoring Management
of changeRisk
management
Can you measure the actual risk experienced in a
Unit
Where is safety going … incidents & occurrences
Can we predict the safety impact of operational
changes
Can we detect unsafe trends and monitoring impact of
changes
Starting with a few questions…
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Safety Assurance
Business Approach to safety
Flight Planning data
Radar Tracks
Flight data
Operational Status (airspace,
airports)
Incident analyses
What we are aiming for…
Performance Measurement
IRiS
Safety Reporting
Risk Management
IRiS - ISAM
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IRiS…
A data gathering capability
Data cleaning, storage & analysis
capability
A set of risk
models
Scalable safety
insight A what-if Capability
New views of safety data
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MAC
Overview of a risk model
Traffic
Hazards
Strategic
Conflict
Pre-Tactical
Conflict
Imminent
Infringement
Imminent
Collision
Near Collision
Providence
STCA
Strategic Pln
Planning
DCB
Tactical
ACAS
AND
OR
Contr. Contr.
Contr. Contr. Contr. Contr.
OR
Precursors
Accident risk
Barriers
Contributors Contr.
5
Airside Induced
ConflictGroundside Ind.
Conflict
Tactical
Conflict
Planning
Conflicts
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IRiS - Who helped to build it
6
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StrategicConflicts
Pre-TacticalConflicts
ImminentInfringements
ACCIDENTS
Hazards
Planned Conflict
Plan Conflict
STCA Warning
ATCO Imminent Action
ImminentCollision
Visual Warning
ACAS Warning
Short Term DCB
Planning & Sequencing
Mid – Long Term DCB
Crew/AC Induced
CrewA/C Induced Conflict
ATC Induced
ATC Induced Conflict
VFR IFR
VFR IFR Conflict
ATC Induced Pre-tac Conflict
2. Barrier & elements within a barrier
� Contributions from incidents
Quantifying it …
1. Precursors measured from track data
� Hard data points
7
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So what … 1
Qualitative review
Quantitative review
BASELININGRisk assessment
Actual Risk experienced in a Unit or operation
Supporting Local Risk Assessment
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So what … 2
Safety monitoring
Where is safety
going…
Data available for further safety use
Barriers & elements within a barrier
• Quantification from Incidents
• Evens ‘Tagged’ when an incident occurs
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EXPERTS
Impact assessment using Risk Model
Overall Safety
Impact
E1
E2
E3
So what … 3 Part 1
Per change
Per group of changes
For all the changes
TRAFFIC
Management of
change
Safety impact of changes
Setting Safety Proxies
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So what … 3 Part 2
SC1
SC2
SC3
SC4
SC5
Management of
change
Safety impact of changes
Data Input
Automatic Data Processing
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So what … 4
Baseline
Risk ModelData RefreshData Refresh Data Refresh Data Refresh
Bespoke Dashbaording
Automatic Data Processing
Risk management
Detect unsafe trends and
monitor impact
of changes
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You can do miracles with powerpoint
It’s becoming reality
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Its becoming reality
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In Conclusion…
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� We can include operational incident data in safety impact assessments of changes
� We have a set of safety proxies
� We make the best use of our data
� Not throwing it away
� Available forming & visualisation
� We know what happens when we have no more incidents to analyse…
� We Identify key risk areas and analysis of risk profile
� We can manage Safety in a big change environment like SESAR Deployment
Ready to meet 2017 / 373
Some Conclusions…