iri i diri index · 10/11/2007 · sindhi 14% seraiki 10% hindko 3% graduate 7% ma/prof’l 2%...
TRANSCRIPT
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IRI I dIRI IndexPakistan Public Opinion SurveyAugust 29 – September 13, 2007
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Survey Methodology
• In-person, in-home interview
i l i l f d l • National representative sample of adult resident of Pakistan.
• n = 4,009
• Conducted between August 29, and g 9,September 13, 2007
• Margin of error ±1 58% overall• Margin of error ±1.58% overall
• Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO)Development Consultants (SEDCO)
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Survey Methodology• A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four
provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage each district was further stratified by Union Councils.
• The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA), Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province.
• The eligibility criteria is age, which for this survey is 18 years and above. g y g , y y
• The response rate was just over 90 percent.
• The interview teams comprised both of male and females; the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewersfemale interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers.
• Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample.
• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.
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POLL DEMOGRAPHICS
Male 58% Female 42%
Urban 36% Rural 64%
Monthly Household IncomeUp to Rs 3,000 7%
Urban 36% Rural 64%
Age
Up to 25: 28%
Rs 3,001 – 10,000 50%Rs 10,001 – 15,000 21%Rs 15,001 – 25,000 10%
26-35: 40%
36-50: 26%
50+: 6%
> Rs 25,000 3%
Language
U d %Education
Illiterate 16%Primary 14%
Urdu 10%
Punjabi 45%
Pashto 14%Primary 14%Middle 18%Matric 29%Intermediate 14%
Sindhi 14%Seraiki 10%
Hindko 3%4Graduate 7%MA/Prof’l 2%
Balochi 2%
Other 2%
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ISSUESISSUES
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When it come to casting your vote in the next election, which of these one issues determine which party you vote for?
(O E d d)(Open Ended)
20%
37%
Unemployment
Inflation
1%
3%
11%
20%
El t i it
Terrorism
Poverty
p y
3%
1%
1%
Education
Water
Electricity
2%
10%
1%
Democratic reforms
Law and Order
Corruption
1%
2%
Development
Islamization
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
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Agree or Disagree?Religious extremism is a serious problem in PakistanReligious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan
74% 21% 5%Sept-07
64% 21% 16%June-07
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR
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Agree or Disagree?
57% 33% 10%The Taliban and Al Qaidaoperating in Waziristan is
a serious problem
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR
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Agree or disagree? The Army should have no role in civilian
government
62% 30% 7%Sept-07
55% 40% 5%June-07
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR
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Agree or disagree?Musharraf should resign as Army Chief of Staff
20% Di76% Agree 20% Disagree
70% 6% 5% 15% 3%Sept-07
62% A 33% Di62% Agree 33% Disagree
41% 21% 13% 20% 5%June-07
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree DK/NA
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Agree or Disagree?Musharraf should remain as Army Chief of
ff i d biliStaff in order to promote stability
17%7%
Agree
Disagreeg
DK/NR
76%
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Would you support or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow Musharraf to remain as
both President and Army Chief of Staff?both President and Army Chief of Staff?
68% Oppose23% Support pppp
8% 15% 12% 56% 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose DK/NA
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Agree or Disagree?The government should declare an emergencyThe government should declare an emergency.
8%9%
Agree
Disagree
83%
g
DK/NR
83%
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M h f d Musharraf and Bhutto Deal
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Should Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf make a deal?Musharraf make a deal?
60%
43%
36%
49%
37%
47%
40%
50%
36%
%
35%
30%
40%
Feb-07
June-07
Sept 0721%
16%16%
10%
20%
Sept-07
0%
10%
Yes No DK/NR
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Should Bhutto and Musharraf make a deal?PPPP voters (n=1 123) and PML-Q voters (n=641)PPPP voters (n 1,123) and PML Q voters (n 641)
8%
63%58%
70%
58%53%
5
50%
60%
31%
37%31% 29%
30%
40%Yes-June
No-June
Yes-Sept
20%
30%No-Sept
0%
10%
PPPP Voters PML-Q Voters
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What would you prefer Benazir Bhutto and the PPPP do, join APDM or make a deal with
h f dMusharraf and PML-Q ?
8%
60%
48%
40%
50%
29%
17%20%
30%
7%
17%
10%
20%
0%
Join APDM Make a dealwith Musharraf
Neither DK/NR
and PML-Q
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What would you prefer Bhutto and PPPP do, join APDM or make a deal with Musharraf and PML-Q ?
( )PPPP voters (n=1,123)
41%
47%
45%
50%
41%
35%
40%
45%
%
25%
30% Join APDM
Make a deal
Neither
7%10%
15%
20% DK/NR
3%7%
0%
5%
PPPP Voters
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Why do you believe that Bhutto is considering a deal with President Musharraf, to bring democracy to Pakistan or
improve her personal situation ?improve her personal situation ?47%
45%
50%
27% 26%30%
35%
40%
27% 26%
%
20%
25%
30%
5%
10%
15%
0%
Bring democracy toPakistan
Improve personalsituation
DK/NR
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Why do you believe that Bhutto is considering a deal with Musharraf, to bring democracy to Pakistan or improve her
personal situation? PPPP voters (n=1 123)personal situation? PPPP voters (n=1,123)
47%
%
50%
35%
40%
45%
27% 26%
20%
25%
30%
10%
15%
20%
0%
5%
Bring democracy to Improve personal DK/NRg yPakistan
p psituation
/
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Would you like Benazir Bhutto more or less than you do now if she made a deal with President Musharraf?
65% More 14% Less
31% 34% 14% 7% 7% 7%PPP voters n=1123
38% More 34% Less
16% 22% 13% 21% 12%16%All voters
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Like much more Like little more No changeLike little less Like much less DK/NR
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N ti l M dNational Mood
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Do you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
73%%
80%
g
59%
73%
%50%
60%
70%
33%
43% 43%38%
44% 44%46%
30%
40%
50%
33
19%
10%
20%
30%
0%
10%
June-06 Poll Sept-06 Poll Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll
Right Direction Wrong Direction
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In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, worsened or stayed the same?
56%
60%
p , y
56%
35%%40%
50%
29%24%
33% 34%30%
35%34%
30%
24%
19%10%
20%
4% 3% 1%0%
Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll
Better Worse Same DK/NR
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Thinking about next year do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to get better, get worse or stay the
%40%
45%
g , g ysame?
34%
8%30% 30% 31%
34%
41%
30%
31%30%
35%
40%
27%
22%
28%
20%21%
3 330%
18%15%
28%
20%
25%
13% 18%18%14%
5
%
10%
15%
0%
5%
June-06 Poll Sept-06 Poll Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll
Better Worse Same DK/NR
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Agree or Disagree?I feel more secure this year than I did last yearI feel more secure this year than I did last year
12%
23%
65%
12%
Sept 07
23%
6%
39%
56%
6%
June 07
39%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Agree Disagree DK/NR
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In your opinion how has the government performed on the issues that are important to you?
3%
Very good Good Poor Very poor DK/NR
11%
38%
3%
22% Good
11%
38%
75% Poor
37%
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In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important to you?
75%
%
80%
p y
61% 58%
50%
60%
70%
38%34%30%
40%
50%
22%
10%
20%
30%
5% 4% 3%0%
10%
Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll
Good Poor DK/NR
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Would you say that the ruling coalition has done a good enough job to deserve re-election?
73%%
80%
g g j
73%
58%50%
60%
70%
34%37%
%
37%
58%
36%42%
35%30%
40%
50%
19%
28% 28%25%
%
33%36%
10%
20%
30%
9% 8%0%
10%
June-06 Poll Sept-06 Poll Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll
Yes No DK/NR
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RATINGSRATINGS
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Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Musharraf is doing?
62%63%60%
70%
g
49%
62%3
54%
60%
50%
60%
34%
26%%30%
40%
21%22% 26%23%
10%
20%
0%
June 06 Poll Sept-06 Poll Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll
Approve Disapprove
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In 1999, President Musharraf laid out a Seven Point Agenda for the country, which outlined the areas he would focus on d i hi id H ld t th P id t’ during his presidency. How would you rate the President’s
achievements on the following points?
% 6%
48% 18%
Devolution of power to the
Ensuring swift and across theboard accountability
48% 18%
47% 23%
50% 46%
Ensuring law and order and
Depoliticizing stateinstitutions
Devolution of power to thegrassroots level
45% 21%
47% 41%
48% 18%
Strengthening the Federation
Reviving the econom y andrestoring investor confidence
gdispensing speedy justice
53% 33%
45% 21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Rebuilding nationalconfidence and m orale
Strengthening the Federation
Good June-07 Good Sept-07
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Some people have called for the resignation of President Musharraf. Do you think he should resign?
70%80%
63%
60%
70%
%
40%
50%
Jun-07
Sept-07
19%
8%8%
25%
20%
30%
8%4%
5%8%
0%
10%
Yes No Maybe DK/NR
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Who do you believe can best steer the country out of the present crisis Pervez Musharraf or Benazir Bhutto?present crisis, Pervez Musharraf or Benazir Bhutto?
45%
42%35%
40%
45
33%
%30%
42%
27%20%
25%
30%
Jun-07
Sept-07
19%23%
7
10%
15%
20% Sept-07
0%
5%
M h f Bh tt DK/NRMusharraf Bhutto DK/NR
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Which one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing Pakistan?
36%35%
40%
p g
32%28%27%
3
26%23% 24%
32%28%
25%
30%
35%
17%15%
21%21%23% 24%
16% 14%15%
20%
3% 3% 4% 3%3%
6% 5%4% 3% %
16% 14%
3%4%5%
10%
3% 3% 3%
0% 0%
3%3% 2% 1%3%
0%
June-06 Poll Sept-06 Poll Feb-07 Poll June-07 Poll Sept-07 Poll
Bhutto Musharraf Nawaz Fazal-ur Rehman
Qazi Hussain Imran Khan Altaf Hussein
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Best Leader by Provincey65%
55%60%
70%
30%40%
50%
60%
30%
17%14% 13%
19%
11%
20%
27%
10%
15% 16%
%
20%
30%
10%5%
4%4%4%1%
4%1%3%
7%2%1% 1%0%
4%0%
0%
10%
Punjab Sindh NWFP BalochistanPunjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
Bhutto Musharraf Nawaz Sharif
Imran Khan Qazi Hussain Fazal-ur-Rehman
Altaf Hussein
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How would you rate each of the following political personalities? personalities?
Benazir Bhutto Altaf Hussain Nawaz Sharif
Qazi Hussain Pervez Musharraf Imran Khan
Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman
45%50%
53%
45%
51% 46%
54%
6%
38%
45%
36%31%
40%45%
40%46%
35%3
22%18%
16%19% 15% 21%
27%
%16%
17% 18%18%
22%
%
6%7%9%11% 9%16%
13%16%11%14%
Jun-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07
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Agree or Disagree?I would like President Musharraf more than I do
if h i d f hnow if he resigned from the Army
39% Agree 48% Disagreeg 48% Disagree
18% 21% 15% 33% 14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%4
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree DK/NR
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How would you rate each of the following institutions?
% % % %%
64
%
65
%
0%
68
%
%
80
%
67%
64
%
80
%
62
%
82
%
70%
77% 80
%
82
%
%
60
55
%
49
%
57 %
55
%
48
% 51%
49
%
47%
41%
49
%
6
50
%
49
%
42
% 46
%
41% 42
%
34
%2
8%
28
%
24
%
3%
13
al ly nt n
my ce ts al s ia n
Na
tio
na
Ass
em
bl
Go
ve
rnm
en
Op
po
siti
on
Arm
Po
lic
Co
urt
Po
liti
caP
art
ies
Me
di
Ele
ctio
nC
om
mis
sio
n
G C
Sep-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
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ELECTIONSELECTIONS
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Do you support the re-election of President Musharraf to another term?
50% Support 40% Oppose
27% 23% 11% 29% 10%Feb-07 poll
50% Support 40% Oppose
33% Support 64% Oppose
21% 12% 15% 49% 3%June-07 poll
23% Support 74% Oppose
16% 7% 12% 62% 3%Sept-07 poll
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose DK/NAStrongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose DK/NA
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Musharraf Re-election by Province
22% 76%Punjab
27% 68%Sindh
22% 77%NWFP
17% 77%Balochistan
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Support Oppose
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Agree or disagree?President Musharraf should stand for re-election
before the current assembliesbefore the current assemblies
48% Disagree43% Agree
20% 23% 19% 29% 9%Feb 07 Poll
34% Agree 62% Disagree
16% 18% 22% 40% 4%June 07 Poll
13% 7% 12% 62% 6%Sept 07 Poll
74% Disagree20% Agree
13% 7% 12% 62% 6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Sept 07 o
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR
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Thinking about President Musharraf, would you support his re-election if ?would you support his re election if…..?
% 8% %
Musharraf stands for re-election before the
bli d 20% 78% 4%
Musharraf stands for re
current assemblies anddoes not resign from the
Army
23% 72% 5%
Musharraf stands for re-election before the
current assemblies butresigns from the Army
first
39% 50% 11%
Musharraf resigns fromthe Army, first holds
parlimentary elections,then stands for re-
election before the new
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
election before the newassemblies
Support Oppose DK/NR
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Are you registered to vote?
17%
5%Yes
No
78%
DK/NR
78%
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If not, why are you not registered to vote? (n=200)(n 200)
35%Not on voter list
26%Do not have ID card
12%Not interested in politics
7%Other
20%NR
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
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If elections for national assembly were held this weekend how likely is it that you would vote? weekend how likely is it that you would vote?
13% %
5% 6%6% 5% 8%1%1%
90%
100%
17% 13% 11%
70%
80%
90%
78% 82% 82%94% 93%
40%
50%
60%
10%
20%
30%
0%
10%
Jun-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07
Very/Somewhat Not very/Not at all DK/NR
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If unlikely, why wouldn’t you vote? (n=241)(n 241)
22%
N bl l d
No use casting vote
33%
6%
Women not allowed to
Do not have ID card
No capable leader orparty
%
5%
5%
Not interested in politics
Women not allowed tovote
1%
5%
10%
DK
Other
Not on voters list
14%
1%
NR
DK
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
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If the elections for National Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote?
36%35%
40%
, p y y
28%22%
32%26%27%
23%24%%
25%
30%
16%14% 15%
19%
10%
419%22%
10%
15%
20%
5%1%3%
1%
10%5%5% 5% 5%
2%4%3%2%
5%0%
5%
10%
Sept 06 Poll Feb 07 Poll June 07 Poll Sept 07 Poll
PPPP PML-Q
PML-N Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA)
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)
DK/NR
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Party Vote By Province-PUNJAB
Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
PPPP 13% 17% 22% 14%
PML-Q 39% 30% 27% 21%
PML-N 18% 23% 30% 54%
MMA 1% 4% 4% 4%
PTI 1% 2% 5% 4%
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Party Vote By Province-SINDH
Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
PPPP 6% % 6 % 6 %PPPP 46% 57% 60% 64%
PML-Q 14% 9% 14% 8%
PML-N 6% 3% 4% 4%
MMA 5% 4% 2% 1%
MQM 13% 11% 6% 5%
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Party Vote By Province-NWFP
Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
PPPP 18% 12% 25% 17%
PML-Q 8% 18% 20% 17%
PML-N 12% 9% 11% 27%
MMA 13% 10% 9% 10%
PTI 2% 5% 9% 13%
ANP 6% 7% 7% 3%
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Party Vote By Province-BALOCHISTAN
Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
PPPP 24% 22% 34% 29%
PML Q % % % %PML-Q 11% 44% 27% 12%
PML-N 1% 1% 1% 9%
MMA 30% 9% 20% 15%
PKMAP 15% 5% 7% 9%
ANP 1% 1% 3% 7%
BNP 5% 7% 3% 5%
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Recently some opposition parties decided to form the All-Parties Democratic Movement. Do you
h APDM?support the APDM?
5%14%
%
Yes
No
Maybe55%
26%DK/NR
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If the elections were held next week and the following were the parties that formed coalitions,
hi h f h ld f ?which of these would you vote for?
40% 39%40%
45%
30%
35%
40%
20%
25%
30%APDM
PML-Q/PPPP
Neither
7%
15%
10%
15%
20% Neither
DK/NR
7%
0%
5%
10%
0%
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If Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan, would you be more likely or less likely to support PML-N?more likely or less likely to support PML N?
55% 19% 20% 6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%4
More likely No change Less likely DK/NR
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Do you believe that elections under president Musharraf in uniform will be free and fair?Musharraf in uniform will be free and fair?
24%19%
Yes
No
DK/NR
58%
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President Musharraf recently stated that exiled leaders would NOT be allowed to participate in the next election.
di i h hi d i i ?Do you agree or disagree with this decision?
8%
5%DK/NR
66%
78%Disagree
Sept-07
Jun-07
26%Agree
17%Agree
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%