irca 1986- simpson-mazzoli act employer sanctions $ for border patrol amnesty
Post on 23-Jan-2016
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TRANSCRIPT
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IRCA 1986- Simpson-Mazzoli Act
• Employer sanctions• $ for Border Patrol• Amnesty
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Hardening the Border
• http://regulus2.azstarnet.com/mediaskins/main.php?id=1356&choice=flv
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“Old Days”
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Operation Gatekeeper
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Operation Gatekeeper
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Size and budget of Border Patrol and INS 1978-98 (1986=1.0)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year
Ratio
to 1
986
Valu
e
INS Budget Border Patrol Budget Border Patrol Officers
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
IRCA Major Immigration Acts
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Source: David Dixon and Julia Gelatt, "Immigration and Enforcement Spending Since IRCA," Background paper prepared for the Independent Task Force on Immigration and America's Future, September 2005.
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• What are the consequences of increased enforcement?
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Douglas, Arizona, and Agua Prieta, Mexico
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2003-04 Apprehensions
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Sonoran Desert
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Hauser Canyon, in California, about 15 miles north of the U.S.-Mexico Border
Caution! Do not expose your life to the elements. There is no potable water. It's not worth it!
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Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
En
trie
s
Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso
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Berlin Wall:239 deaths in crossing attempts, over 28 years
U.S.-Mexico Border:5,046 documented deaths
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Cost (1983 dollars) of hiring a coyote (border smuggler) 1980-98
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llar
s
Tijuana Non-Tijuana
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Waiting for Coyotes
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Probability of Apprehension by Year
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Year
Pro
bab
ility
per
Att
emp
t
IRCA PassesOperation Blockade Launched
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Probability of taking first undocumented trip to the U.S. 1980-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Pro
bab
ility
Males Females
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Relative cost of Border Patrol enforcement 1980-98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llars
Cost ($10,000) per Point Cost ($) per Entry
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Beyond The Border Buildup: Towards A New Approach To Mexico-US Migration by Douglas S. Massey for the Immigration Policy Center
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I-9 Employer Sanctions
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Wages (1983 U.S. dollars) earned on last U.S. trip 1980-98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llars
per
Ho
ur
Documented Undocumented
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Percentage of Undocumented Migrants Going to Non-traditional Destination on Last U.S. trip 1980-98
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Per
cen
tag
e
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
1990 2005
Rest of US
Illinois
New Jersey
Texas
Florida
New York
California
Immigration Spreads Beyond Traditional Magnet States
19.7 m
35.1 m
Source: William H. Frey
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Source: William H.Frey
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
NorthCarolina
Tennessee Georgia Nevada Arizona Iowa Nebraska Colorado
Immigrant Growth, 1990-2005
Fast Growing "New Immigrant" Destinations 1990-2005
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States with at least 5% Immigrants
17
26
29
0 10 20 30 40
1990
2000
2005
Source: William H. Frey
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Immigrant Concentrations in States
15% or more
10-14%
5-9%
Less than 5%
1990 2005
Source: William H. Frey
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At Least 5% Hispanic
States Counties
1990 16 538
2005 28 907
Source: William H. Frey
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"Border Security Now"
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Probability of returning from U.S. on first trip1980-98.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Pro
bab
ility
Pre-IRCA Period
Post-IRCA Period
Opertation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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A Quick Review of the Theory or Science of Migration
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Rate of Immigration by Per Capita IncomeLatin America and the Caribbean
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
Per Capita Income
Rat
e o
f Im
mig
rati
on
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Effect of Community Development on Rate of Migration to US
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Percentage of Women Employed in Manufacturing
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f U
S M
igra
tio
n
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Mexico is Not a Poor Country!
Mexico USA Russia CongoPer Capita Income $8,900 $36,300 $9,700 $600Industry % Agriculture 5% 2% 6% 55% % Manufacturing 26% 18% 35% 11% % Services 69% 80% 59% 34%Demography Urbanization 74% 75% 73% 29% Life Expectancy 72.3 77.1 67.7 48.9 Fertility 2.5 2.1 1.3 6.7
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Effect of Wages versus Interest Rates on Probability of US Migration
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
Expected Wage Ratio Mexican Real Interest Rate
Ch
ang
e in
Pro
bab
ilit
y
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Policy Implications?