INTRODUCTION

NOSTRADAMUS

LIQUID

OIL

“ EITHER YOU ARE WITH US OR AGAINST US.

THERE IS NOTHING IN BETWEEN

PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSHPOST 9/11 ADDRESS TO NATION

AXIS OF EVIL

IRAQ

IRAN

N KOREA

INTERNATIONAL FORUMS UNITED NATIONS - FRAGMENTED.

EUROPEAN UNION - DIVIDED.

NATO - FRACTURED.

NAM

OIC

ARAB LEAGUE

OPEC

G-8

IRRELEVANT

OPERATION IRAQI

FREEDOM

SHOCK & AWE

?

OPERATION IRAQI

FREEDOM

PREVIEW PART I – HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.

PART II – AMERICAN DESIGNS FOR WAR.

PART III – OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM.

PART IV – ROLE AND RELEVANCE OF UNITED NATIONS.

PART V - IRAQ CRISIS – AN INDIAN PERSPECTIVE.

PART I

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

MESOPOTAMIAN CIVILIZATION (5000 BC).

OTTAMAN EMPIRE.

TRIBAL IRAQ - AUTONOMOUS.

PERIMETER OF IRAQ 3650 KMS.

COASTLINE 60 KMS.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

BRITISH RULE – A HASHEMITE MONARCHY

(1921 – 1958).

DECADE OF COUP / COUNTER COUPS.

THE BAATH PARTY (1968).

• 1937 - BORN ( TIKRIT ).

• 1956 - JOINED BAATH PARTY.

• 1959 - FLED TO EGYPT.

• 1963 - RETURNED TO BAGHDAD.

• 1979 - BECAME THE PRESIDENT OF IRAQ.

• 2003 - MISSING IN ACTION

WILL HE RETURN ???

SADDAM “THE ONE WHO CONFRONTS”

IRAN – IRAQ WAR(1980 – 1988)

KUWAIT – IRAQ RELATIONSHIP.

19TH PROVINCE OF IRAQ ??

KUWAIT IRAQ - RELATIONSHIP

OPERATION DESERT STORM

16 JAN – 27 FEB 1991

NO FLY ZONES

NATURAL RESOURCES

PETROLEUM.

NATURAL GAS.

PHOSPHORUS.

SULPHUR.

DEMOGRAPHY TOTAL POPULATION – 24 MILLION.

A MULTI – ETHNIC SOCIETY.

SHIA ARABS – 60 %

SUNNI ARABS – 15%

KURDS – 20 %

OTHERS – 5%

RELIGION - ISLAM.

MIDDLE EAST REGIONMIDDLE EAST REGION

PART II

AMERICAN DESIGNS FOR WAR

BUILD UP TO THE WAR

THE SEPTEMBER 11 LINK.

WAR AGAINST TERRORISM.

AXIS OF EVIL.

9/11

“WE ARE GOING TO FIND OUT WHO DID THIS AND WE ARE GOING TO KICK HIM”

IDEOLOGICAL ENEMYAL - QAIDAAL - QAIDA

COERCIVE DIPLOMACY

UN RESOLUTIONS

IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS.

DESTRUCTION OF WMD.

RESTRICTING MILITARY CAPABILITY.

PROHIBIT SALE AND PURCHASE OF ARMS.

OIL FOR FOOD PROGRAMME.

SIMULTANEOUS BUILD UP IN GULF SINCE SEP 02

FINAL BUILD UP

NON COMPLIANCE OF RESOLUTION 1441.

SEC UN RESOLUTION SEEKING USE OF FORCE.

MOBILISATION OF FORCES IN GULF SINCE SEP 02.

UN RESOLUTION NOT NECESSARY TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION.

THE AMERICAN AGENDA

• POLITICALPOLITICAL

• SECURITYSECURITY

• ECONOMICECONOMIC

POLITICAL AGENDA

REGIME CHANGE .

MIDDLE EAST REGIONMIDDLE EAST REGION

POLITICAL AGENDA

LIBERATION OF IRAQI PEOPLE .

IMPERIALISTIC DESIGNS .

SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS

WMDWMD

TERRORISM

ISRAELI CONNECTION

ARIEL SHARON

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

CONTROL OF ENERGY RESOURCES(OIL)

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

(= $VERSUS

EURO DOLLAR

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

WEAKEN OPEC.

EUROPEAN UNION

PART III

OPERATION IRAQI

FREEDOM

FORCE LEVELSCOALITION FORCES.

• THREE LAKHS TROOPS - AB-FORCES, MARINES AND SPECIAL

FORCES.

• KURD FIGHTERS.

• M1 ABRAM TANKS.

• BRADLEY FIGHTING VEHICLES.

• AH64 APACHE ATTACK HELICOPTERS.

• F117 STEALTH BOMBERS.

• B1,B2 AND B52 BOMBERS.• AIR CRAFT CARRIERS AND OTHER NAVAL SHIPS.• HI-TECH WEAPONARY

IRAQI FORCES

• FOUR LAKHS TROOPS.• ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARDS.• PARA MILITARY FORCES.• FIDAYEENS.• FOUR THOUSAND ARTY GUNS .• T-72 TANKS.• SCUD MISSILES.• VINTAGE SOVIET ERA WEAPONS.

AMERICAN MILITARY STRATEGY

SHOCK

&

AWE

SIMULTANIETY OF OPERATIONS

DOUBLE PINCERDOUBLE PINCER

CAPTURE OF BAGHDAD

SUSTAINED BOMBING.

SPRINT TO BAGHDAD.

(CAPTURE OF AIRPORT)

FALL OF SADDAMFALL OF SADDAM

FIRDOS SQUAREFIRDOS SQUARE

LOOT & ANARCHYLOOT & ANARCHY

FALL OF SADDAMFALL OF SADDAM

FIRDOS SQUAREFIRDOS SQUARE

PROPAGANDA WAR

WESTERN MEDIA.

JOKER IN THE PACK

HI-TECH WAR

TOMAHAWK MISSILES

COST $ 1 MILLIONCOST $ 1 MILLION

HI-TECH WAR• B 52 BOMBERS.B 52 BOMBERS.

– COST. $ 1.3 BILLION.

• F16 FALCON AIRCRAFT.

– COST $20 MILLION

APACHE HELICOPTER

COST $ 4 MILLIONCOST $ 4 MILLION

MI ABRAM TANK$ 4.3 MILLION

M2 BRADELEY (TROOP CARRYING VEHICLE)

$ 3.2 MILLION$ 3.2 MILLION

30,000 SORTIES.

2000 AIRCRAFT.

20,000 TONNES EXPLOSIVES

14,000 PGMs

LETHAL ARMADA

HI-TECH BLASTERS

• BAT.

• JDAM.

• BLU-114B.

• CBU-97.

• TANK BUSTER.

ECONOMICS OF WAR

• LIBERATION OF IRAQ-$ 75 BILLION-$1.6 TRILLION.

• 1% TO 2 % OF US GDP.• GULF WAR I - 80% COST BORNE BY

ALLIES.• US PROFIT - $ 20 BILLION.• OIL BILL FOR US - $ 10 PER BARREL

INCREASE RAISES US TAX TO $ 100 BILLION.

RECONSTRUCTION• OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM TO COST $ 75 BILLION.

• COST OF RECONSTRUCTION - $ 20 TO $100

BILLION.

• CUMULATIVE COST - $ 100 TO $150 BILLION.

USA’S POST WAR PLANUSA’S POST WAR PLAN

• DEVELOPMENT OF PORTDEVELOPMENT OF PORT• ROADSROADS - 5,000 KM.- 5,000 KM.• POWER .POWER .• AIR LINKS.AIR LINKS.• HOSPITALS HOSPITALS - 300.- 300.• SCHOOLS - 5,000.SCHOOLS - 5,000.• HOUSESHOUSES - 25,000- 25,000..

BUDGET

• IMMEDIATE HUMANITARIAN AID - $ 2.5 BILLION.

• ANNUAL COST OF PEACE KEEPING - $25 BILLION.

• REBUILDING INFRASTRUCSTURE - $ 75 BILLION.

PART IV

ROLE AND RELEVANCE

OF

THE UNITED NATIONS

AIM : UNITED NATIONS

TO MAINT INTERNATIONAL PEACE.

TO SETTLE DISPUTES PEACEFULLY.

TO AVOID THREAT / USE OF FORCE AND ESCHEW INTERFERENCE EXCEPT WHEN AUTHORISED BY THE SECURITY COUNCIL.

IRAQ CRISIS

WHERE DOES UN STAND ???

IRAQ CRISIS

POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF RESOLUTION.

LARGER US AGENDA FOR WAR NOT FULFILLED.

MOCKERY OF SECURITY COUNCIL ???

FUTURE ROLE OF UN IN IRAQ

GRANTING LEGITIMACY TO IRAQI REGIME.

REMOVAL OF SANCTIONS.

HUMANITARIAN ROLE .

PEACEKEEPING.

FUTURE OF THE UN

???

“THERE IS NO UNITED NATIONS. THERE IS

AN INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT OCCASIONALLY CAN BE LED BY THE ONLY SUPERPOWER IN THE WORLD THAT IS UNITED STATES. WHEN THE UNITED STATES LEADS THE UNITED NATIONS WILL FOLLOW”.

John Bolton, US Under Secretary of State

Global Structure Convocation, 1994

FUTURE OF THE UN DEPENDS ON THE ATTITUDE OF THE US.

US NEVER HESITATED TO USE ‘VETO’ TO FURTHER THEIR OWN NATIONAL INTERESTS.

US HAS SUPPLANTED THE UN ITSELF.

RELEVANCE OF UN

THE UNITED NATIONSOR

UNITED NATIONS OF UNITED STATES

FUTURE STATUS OF UN

?

ASSESSMENT OF GULF WAR II

ADVERSE REACTION IN ISLAMIC WORLD

REACTIONS IN IRAQ

AMERICAN DOMINANCE IN 21st CENTURY

EMERGENCE OF NEW WORLD ORDER.

HISTORY IS SHAPED NOT JUST BY THE EVENT ITSELF BUT HISTORY IS SHAPED NOT JUST BY THE EVENT ITSELF BUT MORE BYTHE EXTENT & FORCE OF ITS AFTER EFFECTSMORE BYTHE EXTENT & FORCE OF ITS AFTER EFFECTS

UNI-POLAR WORLD

INDO – US EQUATION

REALISIM, NOT RHETORIC, SHOULD GOVERN REALISIM, NOT RHETORIC, SHOULD GOVERN INDIA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH USAINDIA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH USA

COOPERATION IN

MILITARY FIELDS

MILITARY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

WARS OF PRE-EMPTION

PROACTIVE INTERDICTION

MILITARY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

• ICBMs.

• SLBMs.

• AIRCRAFT CARRIERS.

• ANTI MISSILE SYSTEMS.

• AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS.

• AIR POWER.

• MILITARY SATELLITES.

MILITARY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

• GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEMS.

• PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS.

• NIGHT FIGHTING CAPABILITIES.

• COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS.

CONCLUSION

• INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM.

• POLITICAL INSTABILITY.

• INTERVENTION IN KASHMIR.

• WARS OF PRE-EMPTION

• CREDIBLE DETERRENT MILITARY CAPABALITY.

• STATE OF THE ART TECHONOLOGY.

• ECONOMICALLY STRONG.

• IDEOLOGICAL STRAITJACKET.

• STABILITY & PROSPERITY AT HOME.

• INTERNATIONAL PRE-EMINENCE.

CONCLUSION

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