Iran

Iran’s Nuclear Threat

Iran’s Nuclear Program is a greater threat to the U.S. because they dislike our ally, Israel. Iran’s development of a nuclear program would increase chances of nuclear proliferation since they are associated with Hamas and Hezbollah, which the U.S. considers terrorist organizations. As a result, all surrounding countries are vulnerable to nuclear attack.

Committee Members• Josiah Blodget- Current Government

• Kayla Brown- Overview of Foreign Relations

• Amber Cialon- Assessment of Nuclear Program Today

• Mariah Fisher- Timeline Of Iran’s Key Events

• Juliet Glenn- Reaction from the International Community

• Billy Hetrick- Foreign Aid

• Emily Levins- Justification of the Nuclear Program & revise document

• Justin Magneé- Overview of Foreign Relations

• Jeffrey Meyers- Assessment of Nuclear Program Today

• Thomas Richardson- Economic System

• Quinn Satterly- History of Conflict

• Suzanne Steinmetz- Nuclear Program Development

• Meghan Wheatley- Nuclear Program in the Future

Table of Contents 1. Program with Photo & Thesis Statement

2. Committee Members

3. Table of Contents

4. Current Profile of Nation

5. Overview of Foreign Relations

6. Overview of Foreign Relations (Cont.)

7. Overview of Foreign Relations (Cont.)

8. Nuclear Program Developments

9. Nuclear Program Developments (Cont.)

10. Justification of Iran's Nuclear Program

11. Timeline of Iran’s Key events

12. Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Program

13. Estimation of Nuclear Program in the Near Future

14. Evaluation of Policy Options

15. Works Cited & Consulted

16. Works Cited & Consulted (Cont.)

Current Profile of Nation

• Iran has a Theocratic Republic, they also have courts run by the Sharia Law, and they have branches of government like here in the United States.

• Iran’s government is run by a Supreme Leader.

• The Supreme Leader manages the judiciary system, military leaders, the media, and prayer on Fridays.

• The Supreme Leader chooses six members of the 12 member Guardian Council, and the influential body has to pass all legal registration.

• The Supreme Leader is selected by clerics who make up the Assembly of Expert’s.

Overview of Foreign Relations• Iran tends to trade militarily with Russia

• Russia trades with Iran, so they can gain a serious foothold in that area ("Russia and Iran Expanding").

• Tehran is looking for military assistance from Russiao upgrading their missile systemso Making ballistic missiles have

longer range and more precision ("Russia and Iran Expanding").

• Iran is also trying to rebuild their ageing air force and have a place to train their crews with Russia’s help ("Russia and Iran Expanding").

• Iran’s former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not favor the US at all

o He would constantly make “inflammatory speeches denouncing the US and Israel” (“US Offers Iran President Rouhani”).

• “The US has offered a ‘willing partnership’, after President Hassan Rouhani was inaugurated in Tehran” (“US Offers Iran President Rouhani”)

• Rouhani called for international sanctions to be lifted

• Rouhani wants his government to build a mutual trust between Iran and other countries

Overview of Foreign RelationsA senior American official says, “We have very

serious concerns about them having a plutonium capability, another pathway for fissile material for nuclear weapons”

Looks to find a two-phase deal with Iran.

A senior U.S. administration official said, "We're looking for a first step that stops Iran's nuclear program moving forward for the first time in decades and that rolls parts of it back”

Netanyahu doesn’t like anything that Iran is saying. He believes that the president of Iran is “pulling the wool over the international community eyes”.

All countries want this to end. They all feel that it is an extremely dangerous issue.

All the permanent members of the UN are trying to figure out ways to stop this proliferation.

Europe should have troops around the Persian Gulf.

Russia should end their nuclear arms with Iran.

China should press to end its investment in Iran's energy sector, which does so much to fuel Iran's aggressiveness.

• Allies o Arab League countries o Lebanon, Syria and Palestine

(“After Iran Gets The Bomb”)

• Why?o Iran supported these countries in

the war against Israelo Same religion- Islamo Support same terrorist groups

against the USA and Israel

Hamas, Hezbollah (“After Iran Gets The Bomb”)

• Enemies o Israelo USA- in talks with Iran (“Iran

Profile”)

• Why?o Iran, like all Muslim countries

do not recognize Israel as a country

o USA is allies with Israel o USA wants to stop Iran’s

nuclear program (“Iran Profile”)

Overview of Foreign Relations(Cont.)

Nuclear Program Development

Iran’s Nuclear Program:

• Iran has been having negotiations over the usage of their Nuclear Programs (Rubin).

• Iran states that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and only for the creation of electricity generation (Rubin).

• Can be easily used to harm a great number of people (Rubin).

Technology & Capabilities:

• Iran has enough technology to figure out how to get certain atomic elements in their purest form (Vick).

• Instead of Uranium, Iran has figured out that they can use Plutonium as well for their Nuclear reactors (Vick).

• Iran has established a new reactor which is a heavy water reactor (Vick).

• Military forces want to bring the heavy water reactor down, but doing so would release a great deal of radioactivity, which could harm many people (Vick).

• Iran also knows about using isotopes to react with the H20 reactor, Isotopes were stated to be used for medical usage only (Vick).

Nuclear Program Development (Continued)

Risks:• Iran has been able to take the atomic element

Uranium and make it into twenty percent of its purest form(Rubin).

• Capability to make Uranium closer to ninety percent of it’s purest form (Rubin).

• Incredibly dangerous because to create Nuclear weapons one needs to have a pure form of either Uranium or Plutonium (Rubin).

(“Iran Closes in On..”)

• There are ways to use different atomic elements to create nuclear weapons, for example, instead of Uranium they could also use Plutonium or Geranium (Rubin).

Justification • Iran is a part of the NPT

• The NPT entitles Iran to enrich and stockpile uranium and construct a heavy-water reactor for civilian purposes.

• They claim that all of their intentions with the nuclear equipment are purely for peaceful purposes (“Q&A Iran Nuclear

Crisis”).

• Iran says they do not have any intentions to create nuclear weapons but have enough supplies to create five nuclear weapons in six months to a year (“Q&A Iran Nuclear Crisis”).

“Bomb Meter”

Timeline Of Iran’s Key Events/ Nuclear Program Development• 1950’s-Nuclear Development began and was led by

Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. The purpose of this development was to reach a peace program amongst the people of the United States Atoms for peace program.

• January 16, 1979-The time period becomes known as the Islamic Revolution after the shah flees the country after being overthrown.

• The Iraq War- occurs from 1980-1988, which changes Iraq thinking of nuclear weapons. 1984-Saddam Hussein pursues a nuclear program in Iraq. Ayatollah Khomeini restarts Iran’s program secretly.

• Late 1980s-Abdul Qadeer Khan (Pakistan) was said to have sold his uranium enrichment technology to Iran.

• July 1996-Sanctions occur against Iran and Libya causing President Bill Clinton to sign to bill to impose sanctions on foreign companies.

• May 1999-President Mohammad Khatmani issues a joint statement with King Fahd to express concerns about the nuclear program.

• 2003-The Nuclear Program is suspended after the American invasion on Iraq which was justified by the Bush administration.

• August 3, 2005-Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (former mayor of Tehran), became president and cheered on the nuclear program development.

• August 6, 2006-Ahmadinejad kicked off a heavy water plant in Arak. Iran than seeks international assistance in November to ensure safe operation.

• December 2011, Iranian production recovers because of cyber attacks. Now that the programs is still running, United states and Israel can now seek new targets.

• November 11, 2013-Iran has agreed to resolve issues with the agency and “managed access” to two key nuclear facilities.

Information came from The New York Times

Assessment of Nuclear Program Today

• Iran is suspected to be able to produce one Nuclear Bomb as of 2013 from the Uranium produced from their nuclear plant.

• Iran does not have the capability to launch the missiles, especially long range missiles. They would only be a threat to some of our allies like Israel.

● If Iran developed a Nuclear Program,○ “Tehran might multiply its attempts at subverting its

neighbors and encouraging terrorism against the United States and Israel” (“After Iran..”)

○ Terrorists could easily share nuclear weapons and information to foreign nations or people. “Tehran might provide such groups” with support “after acquiring a weapons capability” (“Overblown”).

■ This decreases the stability of the NPT Regime because one’s smaller Allies would have to be controlled or defended causing Tensions between them and larger allies.

(“"Iran May Be Month...”)

Estimation of Nuclear Program in the Near Future

• Iran has had serious troubles and the political structure for nuclear weapons is complex.

• Iran’s nuclear power continues to grow

• Iran has improved their uranium-enrichment Program by 20% (Gordon).

• With it going up 20%, researchers have said Iran could produce a nuclear explosive in the next 2 to 3 months (Gordon).

• Iran has been working on other projects that will help make nuclear weapons within the next couple years (Gordon).

Evaluation of Policy Options

• Important goals guiding US policy towards action

o Minimize Nuclear Program

o Keep Peace (“Create a Treaty”)

o We should not Invade Iran! (“Learn from Iraq”)

● Steps US should take in upcoming weeks/months

○ Come to an agreement with Iran

■ Keep it peaceful(“No Violence”).

● How does this option affect people in the US?

○ Security/Safety would increase

● How would it affect the people in Iran/Middle East?

○ If the US and Iran became allies it could cause tensions between the US and its allies as well as tension in the Middle East.

• Strongest arguments opposing our option:

o If we do not make the first move (by attacking or invading) they could attack our allies and that would leave us at a disadvantage and negatively affect the U.S. by possibly forcing us into a state of war.

o Despite discussion it does not prevent Iran from creating a Nuclear Weapons Program.

• Strongest arguments supporting our option:

o Iran says that the Nuclear Program is for peaceful purposes, but the amount of uranium as well as the supplies they are gaining suggest otherwise. Therefore we should try to talk them out of creating a Nuclear Weapons Program.

o If we do not resolve the issue Iran could attack an ally causing war and jeopardizing lives. Attacking Iran would make them feel threatened enough to try to defend themselves causing a war. This is why nonviolence is the best option.

Works Cited & Consulted• "After Iran Gets the Bomb." Foreign Affairs. 22 Feb. 2010. Web. 7 Nov.

2013.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-ira

n-gets-the-bomb

>

● "Bomb Meter." Cartoon. Foreign Policy. Web. 11 Nov. 2013.

<http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_images/

120309_Level%202.JPG

• Brumberg, Daniel. "The Islamic Republic at 34." RealClearWorld., 11

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• "Iran Closes in on Viable Nuclear Weapon." Hermeneuticals Blog.

Web. 11 Nov. 2013.

<http://hermeneuticals.blog.co.uk/2013/10/29/iran-closes-in-on-viable-nuclear-weapon-16706351/>.

• "Iranian Flag." Flickr. Web. 11 Nov. 2013.

<http://www.flickr.com/photos/owilybug/3490641765>.

• Iran May Be Month from a Bomb: Report | Ya Libnan | World News Live from

Lebanon."Ya Libnan RSS. N.p., n.d. Web. 11 Nov. 2013.http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/10/25/iran-may-be-month-from-a-bomb-report/

• "Iran Profile." BBC News. BBC, 17 Oct. 2013. Web. 12 Nov. 2013.

<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14542438>.

• "Islamic Republic of Iran's Presidency Website." Islamic Republic of Iran's

Presidency Website. Presidency of The Islamic Republic of Iran, 9 Sept.

2013. Web. 12 Nov. 2013.

• "Islamic Republic of Iran's Presidency Website." Islamic Republic of Iran's

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12 Nov. 2013. <http://www.president.ir/en/>.

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• J., Pierre. A Nuclear Weapons Test in French Polynesia. 1970.

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eTopic_0112.xml&lang=en&ftCountry=%2FCountries%2FCountry_0172.xml&_event=vi

ewFeaturedTopic

/>.

• Lindsay, James M., and Ray Takeyh. "After Iran Gets the Bomb." Foreign Affairs. Council of Foreign

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Works Cited & Consulted(Continued)

• "National Intelligence Estimate: Iran - Nuclear Intentions

and Capabilities." Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations, 7 Dec. 2007. Web. 07 Nov.

2013.http://www.cfr.org/iran/national-intelligence-estimate-iran---nuclear-intentions-capabilities/p14937

• News Middle East. BBC News, 14 Oct. 2013. Web. 7 Nov. 2013.

<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11709428>

• "Overblown." Foreign Affairs. 9 June 2009. Web. 7 Nov. 2013.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65127/frank-procida/overblown

• Pennhaul, Karl. "Hopes rise for Iran nuclear accord soon; Netanyahu warns against 'very bad

deal.'" CNN

Middle East.Cable Network News, Web. Nov.

2013.<http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/08/world/meast/iran-nuclear-talks/index.html?

iref=allsearch>.

• Rubin, Alissa J. "Iranian Minister Says Nuclear Deal Is Possible This

Week." New York Times., 5

Nov. 2013. Web. 7 Nov. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/06/world/middleeast/iran-says-nuclear-deal-is-possible-this-week.html?_r=0&adxnnl=1&ref=nuclearprogram&adxnnlx=1383835982-2C5NKiMuoI/3eCiepM3tMQ>.

• "Russia and Iran expanding military cooperation and arms trade." DEBKAFile,. 21

Oct. 2013. Web. 7 Nov. 2013. <http://www.debka.com/article/23376/>.

• "Timeline on Iran’s Nuclear Program." New York Times.

18 Apr. 2013. Web. 6 Nov. 2013.http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/20/world/middleeast/Iran-nuclear-timeline.html?_r=1&#/%23time243_7206>

• Smith-Spark, Laura, Jim Sciutto Reported from Geneva,

Laura Smith-Spark Wrote in London. Chelsea J. Carter, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, Carol Jordan, Saad Abedine, Michael Schwartz, and Elise Labott. "Iranian Officials Optimistic after Geneva Talks."CNN. Cable News Network, 01 Jan. 1970. Web. 12 Nov. 2013.

• Soloman, Jay. "U.S.-Iran Thaw Grew From Years Of Behind-the-Scenes Talks." The

Wall Street Journal. 07 Nov. 2013. Web. 07 Nov. 2013. <

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• "US Offers Iran President Rouhani 'willing Partnership'" BBC News. BBC, 08 Apr.

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>.

• “Nuclear Bomb”

http://infactcollaborative.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Atomic-bomb-facts-Fat-Man.jpg

• Vick, Karl. "If Iran Can Get This Nuclear Reactor Online." World Time.

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• "World." World Iran Urges Elimination of All Nukes

Ahead of Talks Comments. Web. 12 Nov. 2013.