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VOTINGINTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public3

Voting Intention:March 2020

All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

Conservative lead = +20Conservative lead = +22

52%

30%

9%

0%

4%

5%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Brexit Party

Green

Other

51%

31%

8%

0%

4%

6%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dem

Brexit Party

Green

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 713. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May

15

Jul 1

5

Sep

15

Nov

15

Jan

16

Mar

16

May

16

Jul 1

6

Sep

16

Nov

16

Jan

17

Mar

17

May

17

Jul 1

7

Sep

17

Nov

17

Jan

18

Mar

18

May

18

Jul 1

8

Sep

18

Nov

18

Jan

19

Mar

19

May

19

Jul 1

9

Sep

19

Nov

19

Jan

20

Corbyn elected(Sept 15)

May as PM(July 16)

Headline voting intention:2015 General Election

4

52%Conservative

%

March 2020

Johnson as PM(July 19)

Mar

20

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

30%Labour

General Election

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04Ap

r 04

Jul 0

4O

ct 0

4Ja

n 05

Apr 0

5Ju

l 05

Oct

05

Jan

06Ap

r 06

Jul 0

6O

ct 0

6Ja

n 07

Apr 0

7Ju

l 07

Oct

07

Jan

08Ap

r 08

Jul 0

8O

ct 0

8Ja

n 09

Apr 0

9Ju

l 09

Oct

09

Jan

10Ap

r 10

Jul 1

0O

ct 1

0Ja

n 11

Apr 1

1Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Jan

12Ap

r 12

Jul 1

2O

ct 1

2Ja

n 13

Apr 1

3Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Jan

14Ap

r 14

Jul 1

4O

ct 1

4Ja

n 15

Apr 1

5Ju

l 15

Oct

15

Jan

16Ap

r 16

Jul 1

6O

ct 1

6Ja

n 17

Apr 1

7Ju

l 17

Oct

17

Jan

18Ap

r 18

Jul 1

8O

ct 1

8Ja

n 19

Apr 1

9Ju

l 19

Oct

19

Jan

20

Miliband elected(Sept 10)

Corbyn elected(Sept 15)

May as PM(July 16)

Johnson as PM(July 19)

Cameron elected(Dec 05)

Brown as PM(June 07)

Headline voting intention:January ‘04 – March ’20

%

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019


March 2020

52% Conservative

30% Labour

9% Lib Dem

0% The Brexit Party4% Green

0% UKIP

General Election

5

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

Mar

20


SATISFACTIONWITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public

Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The Government

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: March 2020

7

68%

14%

19%

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfied

+5% swing from Feb 2020

+8.5% swing from Feb 2020

Net=-49

38%

9%

52%

Net=+7Net=+14%

+5.5% swing from Feb 2020

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+ 13 - 16 March 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”


Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his/her job.as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

41%

10%

48%


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction

Net = +14

March 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-20

52%Satisfied

9%Don’t know

38%Dissatisfied

July 2019 – March 2020

52%Satisfied

38%Dissatisfied


8

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

52%

9%

38%

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters

Net = +78%

March 2020

87%Satisfied

4%Don’t know

9%Dissatisfied

July 2019 – March 2020


Base: 411 Conservative party supporters 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020

9

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

87%Satisfied

9%Dissatisfied

87%

4%9%


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)

10

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Net satisfaction

Johnson

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Blair

Major

Cameron

Johnson

Brown

Thatcher

May


How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?


Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)

11

Blair’s gov

Major’s gov

Cameron’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Brown’s gov

Thatcher’s gov

May’s gov Net satisfaction

Johnson

Number of months after assuming government

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-

15D

ec-1

5M

ar-1

6Ju

n-16

Sep-

16D

ec-1

6M

ar-1

7Ju

n-17

Sep-

17D

ec-1

7M

ar-1

8Ju

n-18

Sep-

18D

ec-1

8M

ar-1

9Ju

n-19

Sep-

19D

ec-1

9M

ar-2

0

Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction

Net = -49%

March 2020

19%Satisfied

14%Don’t know

68%Dissatisfied

September 2015 – March 2020

19%Satisfied

68%Dissatisfied


12

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

19%

14%

68%

Mar

20Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020


Corbyn

Corbyn

Blair

Smith

Kinnock

Miliband

Foot

Cameron

Duncan-smith

Hague

Howard

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020)

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

Number of months after becoming opposition leader

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-

15D

ec-1

5M

ar-1

6Ju

n-16

Sep-

16D

ec-1

6M

ar-1

7Ju

n-17

Sep-

17D

ec-1

7M

ar-1

8Ju

n-18

Sep-

18D

ec-1

8M

ar-1

9Ju

n-19

Sep-

19D

ec-1

9M

ar-2

0

Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters

Net = -10%

March 2020

41%Satisfied

9%Don’t know

51%Dissatisfied

September 2015 – March 2020

41%Satisfied

51%Dissatisfied

Base: 284 Labour Party supporters aged 18+, 13-16 March 2020


14

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour party?

Mar

-20

41%

10%

51%


ECONOMICOPTIMISM


Economic Optimism Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

Apr-0

8Au

g-08

Dec

-08

Apr-0

9Au

g-09

Dec

-09

Apr-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-

12M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Feb-

16Ju

n-16

Oct

-16

Feb-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

n-18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19D

ec-1

9M

ar-2

0EOI = -54

March 2020 January 2007– March 2020

15%Improve

13%Stay the same


69%Get worse

69%

13%

15%

3%69%Get worse

13%Stay the same

15%Improve

3%Don’t know

16

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020


Economic Optimism Index(1998-2020)

17

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1998

Oct

199

8

Jul 1

999

Apr 2

000

Jan

2001

Oct

200

1

Jul 2

002

Apr 2

003

Jan

2004

Oct

200

4

Jul 2

005

Apr 2

006

Jan

2007

Oct

200

7

Jul 2

008

Apr 2

009

Jan

2010

Oct

201

0

Jul 2

011

Apr 2

012

Jan

2013

Oct

201

3

Jul 2

014

Apr 2

015

Jan

2016

Oct

201

6

Jul 2

017

Apr 2

018

Jan

2019

Oct

201

9

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Net optimism

-54%

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Mar

202

0


LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST

THE CORONAVIRUS


Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak

39%

41%

47%

49%

52%

23%

13%

38%

35%

14%

Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. Fieldwork: 13-16 March

19

Boris Johnson

The Government

Very/fairly well Net well

+38

Very/fairly badly

Chris WhittyThe Chief MedicalOfficer for England

Rishi SunakChancellor of

the Exchequer

Matt HancockSecretary of State

for Health and Social Care

+14

+9

+28

+16



Government measures in response to the Coronavirus

20

When thinking about the different measures the Government has taken so far in order to tackle the coronavirus outbreak, which of the following statements comes closest to your view?Fieldwork: 13-16 March

3%

50%

42%

4%The measures the

Government has taken go too far and not all are necessary

The measures the Government has taken are about right

The measures the Government has taken do not go far enough

and more should be done

Don’t know



Likelihood of self-isolating for a week

21

34%

39%

1%

2%

13%

19%

25%

23%

14%

2%

Less than half

More than half

Don’t know

None of them

Hardly any of them

Less than half of them

Around half of them

More than half of them

Nearly all of them

All of them

As you may know, the government has advised people with mild symptoms, such as having a high temperature or continuous cough, to self-isolate and stay at home for 7 days, regardless of whether they have been tested for the coronavirus. How many people, if any, with mild symptoms do you think will follow this advice and self-isolate themselves for seven days?Fieldwork: 13-16 March



Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak

54%

77%

65%

40%

17%

27%As you may know, this week’s /last week’s Budget included measures to help deal with the coronavirus outbreak. From what you know or have heard, how helpful, if at all, do you think these measures will be overall in tackling the coronavirus outbreak?Fieldwork: 13-16 March

22

Very/fairly helpful Net helpful

+38

Among all

Among Conservative party supporters

Among Labour party supporters

Not very/at all helpful

+60

+14

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (411), Labour party supporters (284), 13-16 March 2020


Support for Budget measures in response to the Coronavirus

77%

81%

82%

84%

87%

92%

10%

6%

5%

6%

6%

3

And to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose each of the following policies announced in the Budget to respond to the coronavirus outbreak?Fieldwork: 13-16 March

23

Support Net support

+89

OpposeProviding a £5billion emergency

response fund for the NHS and other public services

+81

+78

+75

+67

Providing a £500 million hardship fund for councils in

England to help vulnerable people in their areas

Meeting the costs of up to two weeks’ worth of sick pay payments

for firms with fewer than 250 staff

Suspending business rates for a year for companies such as shops,

cinemas, restaurants and hotels with rateable value of less than £51,000

Providing “business interruption” loans of up to £1.2million for small

businesses

Providing statutory sick pay for all those advised to self-

isolate, even if they have not presented with symptoms

+77



Response to the Coronavirus:Bank of England Interest Rate CutAs you may know, the Bank of England recently announced it was cutting base interest rates from 0.75 to 0.25 per cent to help deal with the potential economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose this interest rate cut? Fieldwork: 13-16 March

24


Support

70% 12%

Oppose

Net support: +58



Cancellation of events due to coronavirus

71%

73%

75%

79%

19%

17%

14%

12%And would you support or oppose cancelling each of the following events in light of the coronavirus outbreak? Fieldwork: 13-16 March

25

The UEFA European Football

Championship

The remainder of the season for the main

football leagues around Britain

Support Net support

+67

+61

+56

Oppose

+52

The FA Cup

The Wimbledon Tennis Championships



Response to the Coronavirus:Local and Mayoral Elections postponement

26


Support


72% 20%

Oppose

Net support: +52

As you may know England was scheduled to hold local and mayoral elections on the 7th of May this year, but the government has announced these will now be postponed for a year due to the coronavirus. Do you support or oppose postponing these elections? Fieldwork: 13-16 March


THE BUDGET


Rishi Sunak: Satisfaction

28


Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

37%

32%

30%

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Among all Among Conservative party supporters

45%

17%

37%

63%7%

30%

Net satisfaction: +28 Net satisfaction: +56Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020


Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2020

29

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mar

-76

Mar

-77

Apr-

78Ju

l-80

Mar

-82

Jun-

83M

ar-8

5M

ar-8

6M

ar-8

7M

ar-8

8M

ar-8

9M

ar-9

0M

ar-9

1M

ar-9

2M

ar-9

3D

ec-9

3D

ec-9

4N

ov-9

5D

ec-9

5N

ov-9

6D

ec-9

6Ju

l-97

Feb-

98M

ar-9

8M

ar-9

9Fe

b-00

Mar

-00

Jul-0

0Se

p-00

Nov

-00

Mar

-01

Apr-

02Ap

r-03

Mar

-04

Nov

-05

Feb-

06D

ec-0

6Ap

r-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Jun-

10M

ar-1

1D

ec-1

1Ap

r-12

Mar

-13

Apr-

14M

ar-1

5Ju

l-15

Nov

-15

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6N

ov-1

6M

ar-1

7N

ov-1

7N

ov-1

8O

ct-1

9M

ar-2

0

HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND

% S

ATIS

FIED

JAVID

Rishi Sunak


Opinion on the Budget proposals: 2014-2020

30

As you may know, the Government announced its 2020 budget this week/ last week. From what you know or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing….?

You personally For the country

54%

41%

38%

30%

46%

48%

22%

38%

42%

53%

44%

33%

March 2020

November 2017

March 2017

March 2016

July 2015

April 2014

45%

35%

33%

35%

45%

43%

24%

36%

39%

40%

38%

35%

March 2020

November 2017

March 2017

March 2016

July 2015

April 2014


Gideon SkinnerResearch [email protected]

Glenn GottfriedResearch [email protected]

Cameron GarrettSenior Research [email protected]

Ipsos MORIMarch 2020 Political Monitor

For more information

Dylan SpielmanResearch [email protected]

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