Robin Sears

The instant propulsion of Jack Layton’s legacy to Olympian

heights last summer caused ma-ny Liberals and Conservatives to silently grind their teeth. Those brave enough to endure the trib-ute to him at the NDP convention risk having their heads explode.

They had better get used to it. Jack Kennedy was, in terms of achievement, barely a second-tier president. Jimi Hendrix and John Lennon were both coasting and frustrated with their careers when they died. Yet each now lives in a permanent Camelot or Rock and Roll Heaven. Heroes snatched suddenly exert a primal grip on the public imagination.

Like other leaders who die be-fore it seems fair, Layton’s real political legacy risks getting lost in this sort of misty nostalgic iconography. He deserves better.

Layton’s political legacy is both far richer and more complex than the Golden Pond slides and lachrymose rhetoric of a political tribute night. It is powerful, and it contains important lessons for his successors.

First, Jack was tough. You don’t get to be a party leader, or at least you won’t survive, if you are not. His skill, as with Tommy Douglas, was in disguising his steely edge behind a buoyant public grin. He was smart, not always a virtue in politics, especially — as Michael Ignatieff discovered — if you wear your intelligence on your sleeve. Jack never did, but in private he was constantly reading, reaching out to people with new ideas, test-ing the party’s and his own preju-dices and paranoias. He never confused the importance of tough and complicated strategic analy-sis with simple, even simplistic political messages.

He and Olivia Chow were, as friends say in awe even now, “An organizing machine!” They knew their Alinsky, Cesar Chavez and Martin Luther King lessons. When you are No. 3, with less money, and carry the burden of a party not convinced it can win, you had better have built a good organization if you claim, “I want to be prime minister!”

Part of that organizing genius was recruiting, mentoring and molding political staff, as well as candidates and caucus members. There was an enormous hole left at the centre of the office of the Leader of the Official Opposition when Layton so stunningly disap-peared — but not at the staff level. His team was the finest group of communication and organiza-tional professionals in Ottawa.

It was Anne McGrath and Brad Lavigne and their lieutenants, more than any caucus

member, that held Jack’s bereaved caucus and party together throughout the awful months just ending. Together they are training close to 500 Hill staffers to be the skeleton and nervous system of the post-Layton NDP machine. The new leader had better hope this veteran staff don’t quit. Some are tempted no matter what the outcome, feeling they have done their duty, working incredibly long hours in very painful times for more than a year. Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff are examples of Opposition leaders who were too long without the essential support of a strong and united political staff. It contributed significantly to their fates.

A party determined to seek pow-er is another astonishing thread in Jack’s legacy. This former New Democrat never thought he

The lessons of Layton’s legacyWhat his successors should learn from the way he lived and loved politics

PAGE 6: Keep it simple PAGE 3: Everything at stake

Elizabeth Thompson

The stakes have never been high-er. The potential for success — or disaster — has never been greater.

On Saturday, when nearly 132,000 members of the New Democratic Party select their next leader, they will be choos-ing more than just someone to go toe to toe with Prime Minis-ter Stephen Harper in question period or crisscross the country in an election campaign. For the first time in the party’s history, it will choose someone who could have a serious chance of becom-ing Canada’s next prime minister.

They will also be choosing a di-rection for the party. A direction dominated by principle or one dominated by pragmatism. One that will keep the party centred firmly to the left or one that will continue to move the left-wing party to the political centre.

Depending on the person they choose and how that person handles the first few days of their leadership, the NDP could either emerge from the exercise united or plunged into deep divisions.

Ian Capstick, a former NDP staffer who has remained neu-tral in the race, says Saturday’s vote could make — or break — the party.

“Everything is at stake. Quite lit-erally, this is the very future of the New Democratic Party of Canada. If the New Democrats choose the wrong leader, it could be the end of the party as we know it.”

However, the party’s potential is also huge, he said.

“We’ve never been as popular, we’ve never been as successful, we’ve never been as competent, we’ve never been as focused and

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

March 23, 2012

Make or break for the NDP

Breaking news and analysis,photos, videos, cartoons, details on the party’s parties… plus everything you need to know as you cast your vote

March 23, 2012 | iPolitics.ca 2

WHO WE AREiPolitics.ca is Canada’s go-to source for independent, non-partisan political news, information and analysis.Here are just some of the features you’ll find on our site every day:

THE MORNING BRIEFOur daily newsletter drives con-versations about federal and pro-vincial politics. Delivered to your inbox by 6 a.m., it reveals all you need to know about the issues be-fore they make headlines.

BREAKING STORIESiPolitics is a must-read site for po-litical news as it is happening. We cover the wrangling while explor-ing the intersection of politics with Bay Street, international finance, civil society, interest groups and the media.

TALKING HEADSColin Horgan covers all the action on the Hill in a rolling blog that up-dates throughout the day.

FEATURED OPINIONEvery day at iPolitics.ca you’ll find someone eager to debate. Our regular columnists include Robert Asselin, Fen Hampson, Michael Harris, Dylan Marando, Scott Vrooman and, of course, Lawrence Martin.

COMMITTEE WATCHIn updated reports when the House is sitting, iPolitics and The Alpheus Group serve up full coverage of the discussions and debates in and around the government’s meeting rooms.

HEADLINE NEWSIn addition to the iPolitics newsfile, we showcase news, features and analysis from The Canadian Press, The Financial Times, GlobalPost and ProPublica.

AT THE NDP LEADERSHIP CONVENTIONiPolitics has devoted a team of 15 to the convention. Our reporters and photographers have been joined by columnist Lawrence Martin, blog-ger John Baglow, social media ex-pert Mark Blevis, funnyman Scott Vrooman of Picnicface and car-toonist Sarah Lazarovic.

James Baxter, Editor and PublisherJim Anderson, Deputy PublisherSusan Allan, Executive EditorIan Shelton, Deputy EditorJessie Willms, Designer

Head OfficeWorld Exchange Plaza45 O’Connor St, Suite 530 Ottawa, Canada, K1P 1A4Phone: 613-216-9638

Lawrence Martin

Of the countless possible scenar-ios in the NDP leadership race, one that should not be dismissed would see Nathan Cullen emerge as kingmaker — if not the king.

The chrome-domed British Co-lumbian has been the surprise of the race. His wit, likability and unique policy plank of co-oper-ation with the Liberals set him apart from plodding rivals and turned him into a top-tier candi-date.

Barring the unlikely prospect that he might win, he could very well be the key to the crowning of Thomas Mulcair. Although the Mulcair camp does not agree with the Liberal reach-out plank, it stands, like Cullen, for a more expansionist view of the NDP. Mulcair will be the second choice of many Cullen supporters, per-haps even of Cullen himself. Should the B.C. contender drop off early, he may well throw his support to Mulcair, which quite possibly would put the frontrun-ner over the top.

The link between Mulcair and Cullen has only been strength-ened by Ed Broadbent’s attack on Mulcair. Some Cullenites consid-

ered the assault on the candidate to be an assault on them as well.

Jamey Heath, Cullen’s campaign manager, doesn’t mince words. “The ideological spat that Ed is promoting is specious. He should know that Jack Layton moved the party to the centre himself. What Mulcair is proposing is exactly the sensible, common-sense growth that Jack embraced and that Al-exa McDonough embraced. …I think Ed is going to get booed at the convention.”

What is not known is that Broad-bent and company, who support Brian Topp, were hoping Olivia Chow would join in their strong and public criticism of Mulcair. In fact, the Topp-Broadbent camp put word out to me that Layton’s widow was prepared to denounce Mulcair after a National Post sto-ry suggested he’d once wished to become a cabinet member in Ste-phen Harper’s government.

``Contact Olivia Chow,” I was told. So I did.

Chow told me that she is de-termined to remain neutral throughout the convention and will support the candidate who emerges as leader.

Cullen is the only top-tier can-didate close to the Mulcair camp.

The other leading candidates — Topp, Peggy Nash and Paul Dew-ar — are likely to join hands as a counterweight to the Montrealer who served as a cabinet minister in Jean Charest’s Quebec govern-ment.

From the outset, Cullen was a target because he proposed work-ing with the Liberals in certain ridings to avoid splitting the vote. Despite the beating from his fel-low contenders, Cullen’s strength has grown. Resistance to his idea seems to have diminished during the campaign. But Broadbent’s words may have hurt Cullen be-cause he pit Mulcair versus the traditionalists, a debate that gob-bled up all the oxygen.

Cullen will use today’s 20-min-ute floor presentation to explain why a vote for him will not auto-matically translate into co-oper-ation with the Liberals. It will be a democratic process at the riding level, he will say. Yet, as Heath pointed out, don’t expect Cullen to back down from his proposal.

Rough estimates suggest as many as 30,000 New Democrats (or about one-third of total voters) may cast their ballots during the convention. It means candidates wishing to throw their support

to another candidate could play a big role.

Behind Muclair, who is almost sure to lead on the first ballot, Topp, Nash, Dewar, Cullen are ex-pected to be tightly bunched. It’s conceivable but unlikely that Cul-len, with his big support numbers in British Columbia, could come in second on the first ballot. It’s expected that Topp or Nash will vie for second, followed by Dewar and Cullen.

The scenario that favours Mul-cair sees Cullen finish fourth or fifth on the first ballot before dropping off soon after. Mulcair’s victory would be sealed before the troika of Topp, Nash and Dewar could pool their resources.

But nothing is cut and dried. No candidate is expected to be able to move all of his or her supporters to another.

Cullen hasn’t been spending his time concerned about who he might throw his support to, said Jamey Heath. It hasn t even been part of the discussion. His hope is to come in second or third on the first ballot and to move up from there. So far in this campaign he s been the candidate of surprises. There could be, says his campaign manager, more surprises in store.

Here’s one scenario that’s worthy of attention when voting gets underway

Who will go where after the first ballot?

How well do you know your would-be leader? Check out iPolitics.ca to find out who stands where ... and why. While you’re there, read what they have to say about the best and worst of the campaign trail.

Watch our site and the iPolitics Twitterfeed for

Sarah Lazarovic’s sketches from the floor.

First ballot voting begins today at 5 p.m. Flip the page for a lowdown on how it will all workNathan Denette/The Canadian Press

iPolitics.ca | March 23, 2012 3

Follow us on Twitter at @iPoliticsCA | Like us on Facebook at facebook.com/ipoliticsCA

Contribute to our Instagram galleries by using the hashtag #ipcaNDP

Join the conversation at Pinterest pinterest.com/ipoliticsCA

Today9:00 a.m.: Registration opens12:30 p.m.: Call to order1:30 p.m.–5:00 p.m.: Candidate showcases5:00 p.m. Start of first ballot voting7:00 p.m. Tribute to Jack Layton

Saturday, March 24th9:00 a.m. Close of first ballot voting10:00 a.m. First ballot results 11:00 a.m. Second round of voting opens. Voting will continue through the day as dictated by events

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‘Everything is at stake. Quite literally, this is the very future of the NDP’

FROM PAGE 1

Canada has never been as ready for a social democratic govern-ment as it is today.”

Robin Sears, a former national director of the party, also believes everything is at stake.

“I really do think that this is one of those fateful moments in the history of a party where we’ll sweep onto great success – or not.

“I don’t think it would be disas-ter in terms of collapse or losing the entire Quebec caucus or all of that nonsensical stuff you hear from some of the punditi,” Sears added. “But I do think it would certainly be a drag on growth and an asset for the Liberals and the Tories if it were to end up being divisive.”

When former NDP Leader Jack Layton passed away in August, triggering a leadership race, long-time party organizer Brian Topp burst out of the starting gate. While other potential candidates were still mulling leadership bids, Topp racked up donations, key or-ganizers and the endorsements of such respected NDP figures as former leader Ed Broadbent.

As the seven-month campaign winds to an end, it is Thomas Mul-cair who appears to have the most momentum, cash and endorse-ments.

With seven candidates in the race, nobody expects a first-ballot victory. A key question is whether Mulcair can grow from one ballot to the next. Or does he risk facing an “Anybody But Mulcair” move-ment with rivals like Topp, Peggy

Nash, Paul Dewar or Nathan Cul-len teaming up.

How much room there will be for strategy and back-room ma-neuvering between ballots will depend largely on how many eli-gible voters hold out until the con-vention to vote.

As of Tuesday, roughly 26 per cent had voted in advance, said Sally Housser, acting deputy na-tional director for the NDP.

While those who vote by pref-erential ballot in the party’s ad-vance polling system are locked into their first choice until that person drops off the ballot, those who vote on site or electronically as the convention unfolds Satur-day will vote for one candidate each round and are free to switch from one candidate to another.

Not surprisingly, campaigns have been working furiously in recent days to try to maximize the number of their supporters who vote early which ensures that they can hold that support as long as they are on the ballot.

To add to the complications, this is the first time the federal NDP has used this kind of one-mem-ber, one-vote system to choose its leader and it is expected that fewer than 4,000 of the nearly 132,000 eligible to vote will actu-ally be on site.

“It’s going to be very tough for someone who’s not there and not part of the tribe to figure out what’s going on,” said Sears.

Capstick said the key for each candidate will be to win the air

wars Saturday as the day goes on.“It’s all about what’s on TV.”Some of the candidates, like

Paul Dewar, are setting up phone banks to contact supporters and get out the vote throughout the day.

Another difference in this race is that unions will play a much smaller role than ever before in the party’s history. Union dona-tions are limited and they won’t have their traditional percentage of the votes that have allowed them to play kingmaker in the past.

Sears said NDP leadership con-tests are not usually exciting or divisive – more like amiable con-tests between people who are ri-vals but not enemies.

However, Sears is concerned this could prove to be one of the exceptions, like the party’s found-ing convention in 1961 or in 1971 when the party elected David Lewis.

“What connects the three is a very divisive personality who has a hard core of support and has a lot of people who are deeply op-posed to him seeking the leader-ship.”

“The challenge if that figure wins, how does the rest of the party and the caucus react to that because it is incumbent on him to obviously figure out a way to bring everybody back into the tent.”

elizabeththompson@ipolitics.ca

Final membership countExpected voters

Estimated convention goersConvention voting terminalsWinning leadership formulaTime between voting rounds

THE

Final number of candidatesCandidate withdrawals

Average age of candidatesLength of campaign

Spending limitRegistration fee

Contribution limit

128,351100,000+4,00017550% + one2 hoursCANDIDATES7246192 days$500,000$15,000$1,200

March 23, 2012 | iPolitics.ca 4

Memo to the next leader of the NDP

Frank Graves

Hearty congratulations. You’ve just won Canada’s longest ever leadership race — or maybe it just felt that way.

Endurance is sure to prove key as you step into what is certain to become Canada’s longest federal election campaign.

The precampaign used to refer to the three to six months before the drop of the writ. In these days of U.S.-inspired hardball, it’s all politics — and attack ads — all the time. No doubt you play a starring role in pretested CPC attack ads that are ready to roll.

Politics in Canada is no longer practised, it’s waged. Except for ever-shrinking interludes of actu-al governance, the campaigning never ends. Each side is dedicated to counteracting the other’s next new thing.

But the destructive warfare fuels an unprecedented decline of pub-lic trust in politicians and their parties.

While not responding with Pol-lyannaish naivete, let’s consider some structural fixes. Top of the list? Mandatory voting, then a

proportional representation fix for TFPTP mess.

Meanwhile, know that fram-ing is critical. You need to get out ahead of those set to argue that you are “not a leader” or “just visit-ing.”

Frame yourself, your party, your vision.

At the same time, avoid going negative. Research suggests “hope and optimism” triumph over “fear and anger” — conservatives are drawn to threatening images, while progressives like optimism. Govern yourself accordingly. To borrow from onetime Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg, three things win elections: 1. Emotion. 2. Emotion. 3. Emotion.

Be aware that people overesti-mate the reach and trajectory of Stephen Harper’s Conservative government. Sure, they won a majority with 39 per cent of vot-ers, but quite likely their support with all eligible voters was consid-erably lower. In fact, the party has rarely climbed much higher than the one in three mark, so claims of a new dynasty aren’t much shared outside of this base.

The Conservatives may be for-

midable campaigners and astute political tacticians, but serious evidence does not show Canada moving to the right.

So keep your eye on the ball. It’s your constituency that is growing!

All you have to do is to get them to show up. (Emotion, remember?)

If the Rae attack ads were in-spired by the conviction that you are a blip floated on good luck, bandwagons and the late Jack Layton’s charisma, then allow the delusion to persist. It works to your favor.

The Conservatives won’t con-sider you a dialectical response to the fact they’ve secured govern-ment from the right. Nor will they notice that the decline of the non-ideological middle works to your favour, not the Liberals.

It’s likely the Conservatives are not aware that inequality and fairness — the engines of your success — have emerged as pin-nacle issues. Your party is in a unique position to deal with these concerns. Unfortunately, many consider the NDP deficient when it comes to actually managing the economy. (Your positions on trade liberalization and globalization also present points of potential tension.)

Now onto the biggest strategic

question you face: Should you reach out to co-operate with the LPC and, possibly, the Greens?

While we don’t believe anyone thinks merger is an option before the next election, it will quickly become one if the Conservatives win another majority.

In the meantime, it seems that one-time arrangements of ad hoc co-operation could lead to an NDP-led coalition government. To start, Liberals and NDP could agree not to run in ridings in which the other party has the bet-ter chance.

Strategic voting doesn’t really work and it is unrealistic to think two parties with such deep roots,

brand identities and rivalry could pull off a merger before the next election.

The stakes are huge. You might be winner-take-all, but my honest observation is that four choices on the left against one on the right is bad political arithmetic. If you gamble and fail, frustrated vot-ers might take things out of your hands after the next election.

My advice? Consider the costs and benefits of co-operation. I think an ample constituency would reward such a path.

Go online to iPolitics.ca to see what the latest EKOS poll has to say about the NDP.

Go online to iPolitics.ca to see what the latest EKOS poll has to say about the NDP.

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iPolitics.ca | March 23, 2012 5

Results of first round expected to

be announced Saturday at 10 a.m.

Submitted by mail or online. �e data has already been entered to facilitate the count. Voters were required to mark at least their first choice, and may have ranked as many as all seven of the candidates

PREFERENTIAL BALLOTS

If a winner is not chosen in first round, the preferential ballots from advance voters will be adjusted to fit the new circumstances and added to the count.

ADDITIONAL BALLOTS

CASTING BALLOTS

Real-time voters

Advance voters

Submitting their first pick as they watch each new round online.

Convention floor voters, making their first choice with each new round at one of the 175 electronic voting terminals.

REMOTE VOTERS CONVENTION VOTERS

VOTING ROUND ONE: First round of real-time voting begins Friday a�er candidate speeches conclude, about

5:30 p.m. Closes Saturday at 9 a.m.

VOTING ROUND TWO: Second round commences with goal of announcing results by 12:00 p.m.

With rounds taking an estimated two hours each, and a maximum of six rounds possible (if only one candidate is eliminated each time), the new leader might not be announced until 8:00 p.m.

WINNER DECLARED

WINNER DECLARED

NO WINNER DECLARED

Bottom candidate dropped, others may also go. Relevant announcements are made on stage.

�e iPolitics guide to the NDP voteHow one new leader will be chosen from seven

VOTING ROUND THREE: Voting commences.

100,000+ total votes in play

PREFERENTIAL BALLOTS

50% + oneOnce one candidate has garnered more than 50% of the vote, the new leader is declared, and a leadership celebration begins.

NO WINNER DECLARED

Now we’ve explained how the vote will go down, go to www.iPolitics.ca for start-to-finish coverage from our team of 15 on the convention floor.

March 23, 2012 | iPolitics.ca 6

would see the day when a major-ity of the party members, across Canada, were determined to make the compromises that seri-ous parties do to win power. It is hard to describe how profound this change is to someone outside the complex mesh of movement purity and partisan angst that was the old NDP.

Stephen Harper, a great political strategist and an admirer of Lay-ton, sees it. That’s why the Conser-vative attacks on the new leader will come swiftly and viciously. But many, perhaps most, Liberals and Conservatives — and much of the Canadian media — have still not got it: New Democrats intend to govern Canada in 2015.

Opening the door to discus-sions of coalition was the ground-breaking proof of Layton’s suc-cess. When Ed Broadbent listened to, but quickly rejected, Pierre Trudeau’s offer of coalition cabinet seats, his reward from a grateful party was a convention resolution, approved without even a recorded vote, condemning him and the idea. When Bob Rae installed Da-vid Peterson as premier of Ontario,

in return for a package of social democratic legislative goodies, he was met with fierce criticism and sniping from party activists and some caucus members.

When Jack Layton tried and failed to replace the Tories with an NDP/Liberal government, he was beatified on his way to politi-cal sainthood. The party grew up under Layton in a way it had un-der no other leader.

Then there is Quebec. The hy-perbole of a leadership contest notwithstanding, Thomas Mul-cair was a bit player in winning this jewel in Layton’s legacy crown. His defection was a use-ful early proof of Layton’s seri-ousness. Sadly, Mulcair’s idea of provincial organization was to demand that nearby candidates volunteer as his campaign work-ers.

It was Jack who understood, while still a Toronto municipal politician, that for social demo-crats to break the nationalist/federalist vice of Quebec politics, they would have to take new risks, big risks: risks financially, organi-zationally, in the use of his scarce

time; and even bigger risks strate-gically in policy and in politics.

What Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff failed to un-derstand about Quebec — and what Brian Mulroney and Pierre Trudeau did appreciate — is that you cannot win by placing one foot on each side of this deep po-litical divide. Nationalist Quebec voters need to believe you get their angst about a community and culture that is perennially threatened with extinction. Mul-roney persuaded them, but sadly, not the rest of Canada. Trudeau rejected them and won the rest of Canada.

Harper and Ignatieff, like many Canadian political leaders before them with failed Quebec strate-gies, believed they could flirt with both nationalist and federalist clans alternately.

Jack Layton was a student of his father’s boss in developing his keen understanding of young Quebecers in the 21st century. Af-ter the May 2 election, Mulroney and Layton spoke at length about the challenge of his new man-date. It is yet another thread in

the tragic tapestry of his death that Canada will not see a Prime Minister Layton work to heal the wounds of the 1980-1993 Consti-tution wars.

Finally, Layton gave meaning to the importance of authenticity in politics. It is this authenticity that is the holy grail in contemporary politics. It is not about ideology — Harper has it, Mitt Romney does not. The deep mistrust of Mul-cair, as expressed by party elders like Broadbent, is rooted in their concern about his believability as a social democrat, about his au-thenticity.

The new leader will assume an awesome burden, given the al-ready mythic Layton legacy and its still-growing emotional power. The party would be wise to al-low their new champion many months, many unforced errors and political stumbles as he or she grows into one of the toughest jobs in Canadian politics: Opposi-tion leader in a majority parlia-ment.

The new leader has three good years to make Jack smile on elec-tion night in 2015.

The lessons of Layton’s legacy: Keep it simple. Recruit. Take risks … big risks

FROM PAGE 1

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