investor presentation november 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...november-2016.pdf · q1'13...

33
Investor Presentation November 2015

Upload: others

Post on 20-Jul-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Investor PresentationNovember 2015

Page 2: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

2

Disclaimer

Forward-Looking Information

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. All statements other than

statements of historical fact included in this presentation are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, expected financial outlook for fiscal year 2015, preliminary outlook for fiscal

year 2016, target Shack-onomics, expected Shack openings, expected same-Shack sales growth and trends in the Company’s operations. Forward-looking statements discuss our current

expectations and projections relating to our financial position, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and business. You can identify forward-looking statements by the fact

that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. These statements may include words such as "aim," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "outlook," "potential,"

"project," "projection," "plan," "intend," "seek," "may," "could," "would," "will," "should," "can," "can have," "likely," the negatives thereof and other similar expressions. All forward-looking

statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause actual results to be materially different. All forward-looking statements are

expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. You should evaluate all forward-looking statements made in this press release in the context of the risks and uncertainties

disclosed in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on March 27, 2015,

subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, prospectus filed on August 13, 2015 and Registration Statement on Form S-1 filed with the SEC on October 8, 2015. All of the Company's SEC

filings are available online at www.sec.gov, www.shakeshake.com or upon request from Shake Shack Inc. The forward-looking statements included in this press release are made only as of

the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as otherwise required

by law.

Non-GAAP Financial Information

This presentation contains non-GAAP financial measures, including but not limited to, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Shack-level operating profit and Shack-level operating profit margin. Shack-

level operating profit and Shack-level operating profit margin are not required by, or presented in accordance with, GAAP. Shack-level operating profit is a supplemental measure of operating

performance and our calculations thereof may not be comparable to similar measures reported by other companies. Shack-level operating profit margin has limitations as an analytical tool and

should not be considered as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. Management believes that Shack-level operating profit and Shack-level operating profit margin are

important measures to evaluate the performance and profitability of each Shack, individually and in the aggregate. The Company uses Shack-level operating profit margin information to

benchmark their performance versus their competitors. EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP supplemental measures of operating performance that do not represent and should not

be considered alternatives to net income (loss) or cash flow from operations, as determined by GAAP. EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are used by management to measure the operating

performance of their business, excluding specifically identified items that management believes do not directly reflect their core operations. The Company believes that these non-GAAP

financial measures, when used in conjunction with GAAP financial measures, provide useful information about operating results, enhance the overall understanding of past financial

performance and future prospects, and allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial and operational decision making. The presentation of this

financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for, or superior to, the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP. The non-

GAAP measures used by the Company are not necessarily comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies due to different methods of calculation. Reconciliations of the non-

GAAP financial measures included in this presentation to the most directly comparable GAAP measure are included in the Financial Appendix.

Page 3: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Key Shack Leaders

3

Randy GaruttiChief Executive Officer

Jeff UttzChief Financial Officer

Danny MeyerFounder & Chairman of the Board

Page 4: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 5: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 6: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

6

Where in the world is Shake Shack?

79 Shacks worldwide (as of Nov ‘15)

43 domestic company-operated

31 international licensed

5 domestic licensed

US (48)

West (3) Midwest (3)

NYC (14)

Mid-Atlantic (9)

Southeast (6)Texas (2)

Northeast (11)

Europe (9)

London (2) Moscow (3)

Istanbul (4) Middle East

(21)

Kuwait (7)

Qatar (1)

UAE (10)

Saudi Arabia (1)

Lebanon

(2)

Japan (1)

Asia (1)

Page 7: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 8: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 9: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Openings: Summerlin

(NV) & Woodbury

Commons (NY)

Operational Accomplishments in 2015

Scottsdale, AZ 2016

opening announced

Chick’nShack test

launch in BrooklynInt’l Opening: first

Japan Shack in

Tokyo (Gaien)

LA 2016 opening

announced

Openings: Bridgewater,

NJ & Austin, TX

Madison Square Park flagship

reopened

Opening: CAA (Chicago, IL)

Int’l Openings: Stratford UK &

Moscow, Russia

4th Great American Shake

Sale raised $500K

JulyJuneApril May

9

Openings: I-Drive,

(Orlando, FL) & the

Domain (Austin, TX)

August

Openings: Old

Orchard (Skokie, IL) &

New Hyde Park (Long

Island, NY)

September October November

Page 10: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Culinary Innovation

Chick’nShack

10

ShackMeister Burger Roadside Shack

Lockhart Link Burger ParkBurger Surf n’ Shack

Page 11: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

11

Strong Growth Trajectory

59

1321

31

41

23

3

4

5

5

2

5

15

27

29

FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Q3 2015

Domestic company-operated

Domestic licensed

International licensed

Total Shacks

$19

$39

$57

$82

$119

$174

FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 LTM(10/30/15)

Total revenue ($mm)

Page 12: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

12

New Market Successes

Successfully entered two new markets in 2015—Maryland (Baltimore) and Texas (Austin)

Strong volume and operating performance in new markets underscore the portability of the concept

Plans to enter Los Angeles, CA and Phoenix, AZ in 2016

Las Vegas, NV Chicago, IL Baltimore, MD Austin, TX

Page 13: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

13

Most Recent Quarter Results

Q3 2014 Q3 2015

Δ

2014 v 2015

Total revenue $31.8M $53.3M $21.5M

Same-Shack sales

growth1.2% 17.1% 1,590 bps

Adjusted EBITDA

margin*18.0% 24.5% 650 bps

Shake-level operating

profit margin*25.1% 30.4% 530 bps

** Non-GAAP financial measure. See “Financial Appendix” for a reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Page 14: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

5 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 16 16# of Shacks

0.8%

5.9%

8.2%

6.8%

3.9%

4.5%

1.2%

7.2%

11.7%

12.9%

17.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15

Line 1

Domestic company-operated Shacks open for 24 months or longer*

Same Shack Sales Overview

Strong same-Shack sales

in 3Q 2015 driven by:

8.1% increase in traffic

9.0% increase in ticket

(price and mix)

3Q 2015 YTD same-Shack

sales of 14.3% driven by:

5.2% increase in traffic

9.1% increase in ticket

(price and mix)

Commentary

* Excludes 53rd week in fiscal 2014

14

Page 15: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

15

$156,080

$219,754

3Q '14 YTD 3Q '15 YTD

$83,758

$139,531

3Q' 14 YTD 3Q '15 YTD

$ in thousands

* System-wide sales represents the combined sales from all of our domestic company-operated Shacks and both our domestic and international licensed Shacks. Our total revenue is limited to Shack sales

from our domestic company-operated Shacks and licensing revenue from our domestic and international licensed Shacks.

** Non-GAAP financial measure. See “Financial Appendix” for a reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Revenue System-wide sales*

2015 YTD Key Metrics

Shack-level operating profit** Adjusted EBITDA**

$19,475

$38,983

3Q '14 YTD 3Q '15 YTD

$14,063

$31,256

3Q '14 YTD 3Q '15 YTD

22.4%16.8%29.1%24.7%

% Shack-level operating profit margin % adjusted EBITDA margin

Page 16: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Updated 2015 GuidanceFor the fiscal year ending December 30, 2015, the Company provides the following

guidance:

Total revenue between $189 million and $190 million

Same-Shack sales growth between 11% and 12%

12 new domestic company-operated Shacks opened in 2015 which has already

been executed

At least 6 international licensed Shacks to be opened under the Company's

current license agreements in the U.K., Middle East and Japan.

16

Page 17: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

2016 GuidanceFor the fiscal year ending December 28, 2016, the Company provides the following

guidance:

Total revenue between $237 million and $242 million

Same-Shack sales growth between 2.5% and 3.0%

At least 14 new domestic company-operated Shack openings

Eight international licensed Shack openings

2016 openings expected to have average annual sales volumes of at least

$3.3 million and average Shack-level operating profit margins of at least 22%

Long-term guidance for 2017 and beyond remains at $2.8 to 3.2 million

and 18% to 22%

17

Page 18: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

2016 COGS Guidance

2016 COGS: expected to be flat to slightly higher on a

sequential quarterly basis

Beef

• Approximately 1/3 of market basket

• Contract on supply, not price

• Long-term: No significant reduction until 2017

Page 19: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Labor Outlook Largest headwind facing entire restaurant industry

Expect deleveraging on the labor and related expenses line

Our Philosophy: Invest in our team

First Step: DC Market - $12/hour in July ’15 (Minimum Wage: $10.50/hr)

Page 20: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Starting Wages by State

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

$11.00

$12.00

$13.00

GA PA FL NV NJ MD CT TX IL MA VA DC NY NYC

2016 2017 Current

Page 21: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Menu Pricing Strategy

One pricing tier

No regional pricing

Minimal 1-2% price increase

in 2016

Page 22: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

West Hollywood, CA

Page 23: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Scottsdale, AZ

Page 24: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Dallas, TX

Page 25: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Tokyo, Japan

Page 26: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 27: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 28: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 29: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

Tokyo, Japan

Page 30: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 31: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated
Page 32: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

32

Non-GAAP Reconciliation

Thirteen Weeks Ended Thirty-Nine Weeks Ended

September 24,

2014

September 30,

2015

September 24,

2014

September 30,

2015

Shack-level operating profit 7,577$ 15,588$ 19,475$ 38,983$

Add:

Licensing revenue 1,660 1,998 4,770 5,626

Less:

General and administrative expense 5,200 5,728 12,192 30,165

Depreciation expense 1,502 2,636 4,067 7,274

Pre-opening costs 1,766 1,401 3,828 4,054

Loss on disposal of property and equipment 10 17 28 17

Operating income 759$ 7,804$ 4,130$ 3,099$

Total revenue 31,825$ 53,273$ 83,758$ 139,531$

Less: Licensing revenue 1,660 1,998 4,770 5,626

Shack sales 30,165$ 51,275$ 78,988$ 133,905$

Shack-level operating profit margin 25.1% 30.4% 24.7% 29.1%

Reconciliation of Shack-level Operating Profit to Operating Income

Page 33: Investor Presentation November 2015s2.q4cdn.com/686132520/files/...November-2016.pdf · Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Line 1 Domestic company-operated

33

(1) Represents non-cash equity-based compensation expense. For the thirteen and thirty-nine weeks ended September 30, 2015, amounts relate solely to stock options granted in connection with the IPO. (2) Amount relates to a bonus

agreement the Company entered into with an employee. (3) Non-capital expenditures associated with opening new Shacks exclusive of deferred rent incurred prior to opening. (4) Reflects the extent to which rent expense is greater than

or less than cash rent payments. (5) Includes the loss on disposal of property and equipment in the ordinary course of business. (6) Non-recurring compensation expense incurred in connection with the IPO, including expense recognized

in settlement of outstanding awards under the Company's Unit Appreciation Rights Plan, the related employer withholding taxes and the accelerated vesting of outstanding restricted Class B units. (7) Costs incurred in connection with the

Company's IPO, including legal, accounting and other related expenses. (8) For periods presented, represents non-cash charges related to certain employee benefits.

Thirteen Weeks Ended Thirty-Nine Weeks Ended

September 24,

2014

September 30,

2015

September 24,

2014

September 30,

2015

Net income 504$ 6,193$ 3,545$ 78$

Depreciation expense 1,502 2,636 4,067 7,274

Interest expense, net 128 83 219 245

Income tax expense 127 1,528 366 2,776

EBITDA 2,261 10,440 8,197 10,373

Equity-based compensation(1)41 1,172 124 3,142

Deferred compensation expense(2)(43) — — —

Pre-opening costs(3)1,039 1,051 2,260 2,933

Deferred rent(4)924 369 1,934 1,338

Loss on disposal of property and equipment (5)10 17 28 17

Non-recurring compensation expenses related to the IPO (6)— — — 12,818

IPO-related expenses(7)1,495 — 1,495 635

Other non-cash items(8)(11) — 25 —

Adjusted EBITDA 5,716$ 13,049$ 14,063$ 31,256$

Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income

Non-GAAP Reconciliation