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DecisionWare Group LLCPolicy Analysis for Energy, Economy and Environment

INTRODUCTION TO THE

VEDA TIMES-STARTER PLATFORM

Presented by

Gary Goldstein

June 17, 2018

Gothenburg, Sweden

TIMES-Starter Platform Basic Concept• IEA-ETSAP has supported this innovative approach to developing new

national or regional energy systems models resulting in significantly less development time and cost, and with improved model quality

• TIMES-Starter is a fully assembled, full-sector energy systems model ready to be customized to a particular national or regional energy system

• It comes equipped with a high-quality, peer-reviewed technology characterization database sourced from USDOE, USEPA, and others that can be customized to the country situation.

• It employs best modeling practices and strong naming conventions to improve understandability and minimize errors.

• Includes results handling tools to improve analysis of model results and dissemination to decision-makers.

Initial uses of the ANSWER-based TIMES-Starter were for the PMR in Turkey, the IEA ETP team working with China ERI to implement TIMES-China model, and Costa Rica with support from the World Bank to assist with Assessing Climate Mitigation Pathways to Support INDC Implementation. 2

Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

TIMES-Starter Model Management

Platform

• Data is

assembled in

“linked” Excel

workbooks

• Managed by

VEDA-FE

• Submitted to

TIMES

(GAMS)

• Post-

processed by

VEDA-BE

• Analyzed via

the Analytics

graphing

workbook

3

Existing

Technology

Stock

New

Technology

Options

Demand

Projection

Base Year

Energy Balance

& Load Curve

Reference

Scenario

Guidance

Results

Analysis

Workbook

Base Year

Calibration

Check

Policy

Scenarios

Model

Management

Interface

VEDA-BE

Results

Management

TIMES

(GAMS)


Adapting the TIMES-Starter Model1. Enter the base year energy balance and sector decomposition of fuel usage

2. RES tailored (semi-automatically) by eliminating commodities not relevant (or

add missing ones)

3. Adjust the timeslices (setup with 4-seasons, 3 time-of-days) and shape the

load curve

4. Provide prices for primary energy resources not found in the US9rT database

5. Run and refine the base year calibration

6. Adjust the demand drivers

7. Pick the future technologies to be allowed, and adjust cost, efficiency and

availability where necessary

8. Introduce all known planned new power plant and infrastructure builds

9. Introduce all physical limits on resources

10.Introduce all current policies

11.Adjust the Reference guidance mechanisms (rates of fuel switching, new

technology penetration, and device type shares)

12.Run and refine the Reference scenario

13.Do any necessary adjustments to the VEDA-BE Sets & Tables (and Analytics

workbook) for handling results

14.Tailor the standard policy scenarios provided and run

15.Refine model behavior4


Data Assembly Templates

Folder Organization

5

• \VEDA\VEDA_Models\VT-Starter is the root folder for the various input templates and result workbookso Energy Balance (EB) and LoadCalib are not loaded into VFE (nor is DependTable (not shown, see next slide))

o Base Year (BASE or BY) templates

o VFE SysSettings and BY_Trans setup files

• SubRES contains the new technologies (NTs);

• SupplXLS contains the User Constraints (UCs), and Scenario files, and

• ResultsXLS is where the Calibration, Policy Check and Run Results workbooks are found.


VT-Starter SubRES_TMPL

ResultsXLS

SuppXLS


Inter-dependencies

6

• The arrows show the dependency links between the workbooks, that is where a child

(dependent) links to its parent (source).

• In addition SysSettings VFE template needs to be updated if the time-slices are adjusted in the

Load Calibration workbook.


Existing Technology

Stock & Calibration (BY)

[VT_Starter_<sect>]

New Technologies

[SubRES_NT-<sect>]

Demand Projection

[VT_Starter_DEM]

Base Year Energy

Balance

[EB_Starter-VT(2015)]

Reference Guidance

[Scen_UC-<sect>/90]

Resource Supply

[VT_Starter_SUP]

Load Calibration

[LoadCalibration-

VTS]


Dependency Table

7

Linked Child

TemplatesParent/GrandParent Template Dependent Data

LoadCalibration_Simple EB_Starter-VT(2015) EB sector total electric consumption

VT_Starter_COM/RSD electric consumption by DEM

EB_Starter-VT(2015) LoadCalibration_Simple G_YRFR and COM_FR

VT_Starter_SUP EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, 1st year supply/com

VT_Starter_AGR EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR

VT_Starter_COM EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR

VT_Starter_IND EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR

VT_Starter_PP EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, EB PP input/output com&level

VT_Starter_RSD EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR

VT_Starter_TRN EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR

VT_Starter_DEM EB_Starter(2015) region, periods

VT_Starter_AGR/COM/IND/RSD/TRN 1st period UED/dem

SubRES_NT-AGR VT_Starter_AGR region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)

SubRES_NT-COM VT_Starter_COM region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)

SubRES_NT-IND VT_Starter_IND region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)

SubRES_NT-PP VT_Starter_PP region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)

SubRES_NT-RSD VT_Starter_RSD region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)

SubRES_NT-TRN VT_Starter_TRN region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)

Scen_UC-AGR/90 VT_Starter_AGR region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD

Scen_UC-COM/90 VT_Starter_COM/SubRES_NT-COM region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD, name of HPs

Scen_UC-IND VT_Starter_IND region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD

Scen_UC-RSD/90 VT_Starter_RSD/SubRES_NT-RSD region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD, name of HPs

Scen_UC-TRN/90 VT_Starter_TRN region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD

Scen_<Alt-assumption> EB_Starter(2015)region, periods --- using VFE ~FillTab to grab exising data when

needed

Scen_Pol-<policy>VBE result tables (via copy/paste or

UpdXLS)sector emission level / FEC

TIMES-Starter Template Dependencies

• These relationships are maintained in the Dependency Table workbook found in the VT-Starter folder.

• When a parent is updated all the dependent children SHOULD be updated as well (though it may be

the case that the actual change does not affect the linked data in a particular dependent workbook).



Workbook Organization

8

Worksheet Description

SETUP

Controls which commodities, process types, processes/devices are to be included in the model according to the EB and Calibration sheets. Mapping of EPA-US9rT/other commodity/process names to their TIMES-Starter equivalents, and grabbing of model periods, emission factors, USD price conversion factors from the Energy Balance workbook.

EB Information for the Energy Balance workbook for the sector. [BYs only]

CalibrationThe calculation sheet where the energy balance is apportioned and the initial year technology stock calculated for each sector. [BYs only]

CommoditiesEnergy carriers, emissions, materials are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be used in the rest of the sheets. These are controlled by the SETUP sheet in terms of inclusion in the current instance of the model, or not.

Processes

Process technologies are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be used in the rest of the sheets. These are in turn controlled by the SETUP sheet in terms of inclusion in the current instance of the model, or not. [BY only, as the NT (SubRES) templates have the declaration block on the same <sector> sheet as the data.]

CommDataA sheet with the data for commodities in the sector (mostly used for mapping sector emissions to overall emissions and providing demand levels and load timings. [BY and Demand templates only.]

ProcData_<sect>, <sect> or <nature-of-the-data>

One or more sheets with the data for all technologies in the sector. <sect> if only one sheet, and <Nature-of-the-data> if multiple sheets are used to refer to distinct power plant or vehicle types or specific industry subsectors. For the NT templates all process data must appear on a single load sheet with a name corresponding to the sector (<sect>).

ProcData_XPRCs Processes that connect the upstream commodities with each of the other sectors.

EPA/DEA/PIEM/EC currently

Data sheets from the EPA-US9rT/Danish Energy Agency/Pak-IEM/Energy Community-EE databases (and perhaps other sources including but not limited to IEA, ETSAP eTech-DS, etc.) providing the source values for the technology options.


UC-<sect>Data for the user-defined constraints that “guide” the rate of fuel switching, technology type choice, and advanced device/vehicle uptake.

National Energy Balance

9

The TIMES-Starter dynamically (re)configures, according to the entries in

the energy balance, to include the necessary supply, and conversion

processes and final energy commodities associated with each demand

sector.


RES Component Naming Conventions

10

Strict adherence to the naming conventions ensures that the VBE Sets & Tables

will remain correct and that the User Constraints will be properly formulated.

Demand Sectors


Starter RES Network: Gas Example

11

TIMES-Starter natural gas RES proceeds from multiple resource supply

options, thru pipeline(s), to sector


Establishing the Load Duration Curve

12

• Starts from the 8760 hour load curve

• Setup for 12 timeslices, 4 seasons (months) and 3 daytime (hour blocks)

• Timeslices may be adjusted, though with this (simple) workbook it is recommended to stay with 12 slices

• ETSAP has a sophisticated timeslice calculation utility if more detailed preparation of the load curve is

desired (see https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-projects)


https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-projects

Modeling Periods & TimeSlices

13

VFE Milestone Years facility

overseas setting the modeling

periods, stored in SysSettings (which

must align with those in the EB

• TimeSlices are established in the LoadCalibration workbook, then moved into the

EB_Starter for passing into the individual demand sector templates



Aligning Load & Source Data Sheets

14

TIMES-Starter technologies are aligned with their EPA equivalents via the Lookup Sheet/Technology pair,

which are set up on the SETUP sheet

Using the Row-1 attributes, a MATCH/VLOOKUP function is used to grab the source data, and applies

convert $ and other unit conversions (e.g., miles to kilometers) to populate the ProcData load sheetsIntroduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform


Energy Supply

15

• Energy supply is described in terms of imports and domestic options for which a price and

optionally maximum annual and cumulative levels are provided.

• TIMES-Starter “seeds” the 1st period levels directly from the EB and sets the last period limit

based upon the growth ratio specified by the user on the SETUP sheets,

• Prices are taken from the IEA World Outlook, with any user provided scalers or overrides applied.



EB Sheet (for Power)

16

• Data is grabbed directly from the EB_Starter Energy Balance sheet for each of the main plant

categories (e.g., coal-fired electricity generation, gas-fired CHP, etc.)

• The Calibration tab (see slide) decomposes the fuel consumed by each plant category by

assigning a portion to individual plant types in that category (e.g., coal-steam, coal-IGCC, etc.)

• A cross-check ensures that the EB and Calibration align



SETUP Sheet (for Power)

17

• EPA US9rT database contains

a large number of power

plants types that are mapped

to their Starter equivalent

according to the source data

sheet where the plant

characterization is found

• Options are activated or

deactivated according to the

EB, where an “*” appears in

the 1st column if a commodity

is not used for electricity

generation, or the power plant

type is not found in the

country



Calibration Sheet (for Power)

18

• For each existing power plant category, the installed capacity, fuel input, efficiency and available

factor much be provided for each of the plant types that are to be modelled.

• The Base year capacity factor is calculated from the installed capacity and amount of electricity

produced. Future year availability factors can be higher.



VFE Load Sheet (for Power)

19

• MATCH/VLOOKUP functions are used to populate the power sector data from the source data

(green) or Calibration sheets (yellow)

• Checks are done to ensure blanks do not appear as 0s and trapping any Excel #errors

• Where necessary, unit conversion is done in the formulas



VFE Load Sheet (for Power XPRCs)

20

• Each sector is connected to the rest of the RES network by means of exchange (or XPRC)

processes which simply take the upstream energy carrier and rename it for the sector into which it

is flowing

• Inclusion or not of a particular XPRC is determined according to the SETUP sheet

• Sector level fuel-based emissions accounting is done via the XPRCs



Demand Sector CommData Sheet

21

• Data related to the 1st period energy service demand is loaded from the Calibration sheet

• Timeslices are grabbed from the EB_Starter Periods&Timeslices sheet according to the

sector

• Sector emission are aggregated to the system-wide CO2 eq. totals, by applying the GWP as

appropriate



Demand Preparation - Residential

22

• Demand drivers for each sector (often at the end-use service level), along with elasticities, determine

how quickly the sector demand grows, perhaps along with the saturation level/growth for some demands

• In the case of cooling and heating the rate of old/new building stock change and degree day

considerations are also factored inIntroduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform


Demand Projections

23

• 1st period demand levels are grabbed from each of the sector EB workbooks

• Sector experts can then review and comment on the resulting demand projections



User Guidance Constraints

24

• Constraints are introduced to have control over the rate of transition from the current fuels and

device/vehicle types and the penetration of new technologies.

• These constraints are used to limit the rate of change in the References scenario and need to be

relaxed under specific policy scenarios that impact these rates


VEDA-FE Model Management System

25

The VEDA-FE model management system oversees the Excel workbooks,

provides facilities for viewing via data in dynamic data cubes, presents RES

diagrams, organizes and submits model runs, and provides other advance

feature for working with TIMES


VEDA-BE Handles Results via Dynamic Pivot Tables

26

VBE results handling system

allows user-defined Sets &

Tables to be assembled, then

viewed as dynamic pivot tables

that can be exported to Excel.


Calibration Check Workbook

27

The Calibration Check workbook cross-checks the 1st period model results to ensure that the

Energy Balance aligns and that the power sector operation is also replicated by the model.


Analytics Multi-case Comparison Graphing & Metrics Workbook

2012$M % Difference GW % Difference

Base - v11 109,937 Base - v11 1.28

Renewable Electricity Share 109,874 -0.1% Renewable Electricity Share 1.21 94.7%

Limit Electricity Consumption 111,223 1.2% Limit Electricity Consumption 0.96 75.1%

Limit Electricity Generation 110,073 0.1% Limit Electricity Generation 1.07 83.9%

PJ % Difference 2012$M % Difference

Base - v11 5,245 Base - v11 3,190

Renewable Electricity Share 5,226 -0.4% Renewable Electricity Share 2,907 -8.9%

Limit Electricity Consumption 5,322 1.5% Limit Electricity Consumption 2,472 -22.5%

Limit Electricity Generation 5,163 -1.6% Limit Electricity Generation 2,817 -11.7%

PJ % Difference 2012$M % Difference

Base - v11 21 Base - v11 50,163

Renewable Electricity Share 21 0.0% Renewable Electricity Share 49,997 -0.3%

Limit Electricity Consumption 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Consumption 52,462 4.6%

Limit Electricity Generation 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Generation 50,098 -0.1%

PJ % Difference kt % Difference

Base - v11 2,489 Base - v11 293,340

Renewable Electricity Share 2,485 -0.2% Renewable Electricity Share 278,965 -4.9%

Limit Electricity Consumption 2,673 7.4% Limit Electricity Consumption 288,736 -1.6%

Limit Electricity Generation 2,484 -0.2% Limit Electricity Generation 284,537 -3.0%

CO2 Emissions

Scenario

Fuel Expenditures

Scenario

Electrity Generation

Scenario

Final Energy Consumption

Scenario

Scenario Primary Energy

Scenario Electricity Investment

Scenario System Cost

Scenario Power Plant Builds

28

Results tables are exported & dynamically updated from VBE to the Analytics workbook,

where presentation & report quality tables & graphs are prepared automatically.Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

Model Results –Overview

29Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

An example set of policy scenarios are included to test the impact of possible

changes from the Reference scenario arising from typical policy measures.

These scenario files, with a leading prefix Scen_P-, are found in the SuppXLS

folder, and include scenarios that:

Cap overall and/or sector GHG emissions, e.g., 25/50% below Baseline in

2030/50;

A forced change in the absolute value of a Reference scenario result, e.g.

decrease in final energy consumption of 20% by a target year;

A forced change in the share of a Reference scenario result, e.g., a target

share of 50% renewable electricity generation by a target year, and

The introduction of a cost or tax on the system, e.g., imposing a price on

carbon emissions.

Model Results –Cost

30

The shift to more expensive improved devices result in increased

investment spending with a drop in expenditures for fuel.


-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

CO2 Limit (-50% in2050)

RE ELC (ramp to 50%in 2050)

CO2 Tax ($100/t in2050)

Difference from Ref with UC90

VAR

INV+

INV

FLO

FIX

ACT

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Ref with UC90 CO2 Limit (-50% in2050)

RE ELC (ramp to 50%in 2050)

CO2 Tax ($100/t in2050)

20

15

$M

Total Discounted System Cost

VAR

INV+

INV

FLO

FIX

ACT

Model Results –Primary Energy

31

A dramatic move away from coal to more electricity from imports,

nuclear and renewables can be seen


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Ref with UC90 CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) RE ELC (ramp to 50% in 2050) CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050)

PJ

Supply - Total Primary

Renewables

Oil and Products

Nuclear

Gas

Electricity

Coal

Biofuels

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

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CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) RE ELC (ramp to 50% in 2050) CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050)

PJ


Renewables

Oil and Products

Nuclear

Gas

Electricity

Coal

Biofuels

Model Results –Electric Generation

32

Electricity generation shift away from coal to hydropower and other

renewables and in some cases new nuclear


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2017

2020

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2030

2035

2040

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2050

2015

2017

2020

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2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050


PJ

Electric Generation (by Type)

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Hydro

Geothermal

Gas-fired

Gas fired CHPs

Coal-fired

Coal fired CHPs

Biomass fired CHPs

Biofuel-fired

-40

-30

-20

-10

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2020

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2017

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2017

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2035

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2050

CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) RE ELC (ramp to 50% in 2050) CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050)

PJ


Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Hydro

Geothermal

Gas-fired

Gas fired CHPs

Coal-fired

Coal fired CHPs

Biomass fired CHPs

Biofuel-fired

Model Results –New Power Plant Builds

33

The change in plant types and investment timing of the various scenarios shows

the how the roles to be played by the different technologies is impacted by that

particular policy.


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GW

Electric New Builds (by Type)

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Hydro

Geothermal

Gas-fired

Gas fired CHPs

Coal-fired

Coal fired CHPs

Biomass fired CHPs

Biofuel-fired

Model Results – FEC by Fuel

34

The CO2Tax case forces a rather substantive shift away from direct

use of coal to more biomass and electricity.


Model Results –CO2 Emissions by Fuel

35

The substantial drop in CO2 emissions, particularly in the CO2Tax scenario,

is shown, driven by the overall reduction in the use of coal.


Model Results – Trend Snapshot

36

The variation from the current electricity generation mix to that in 2030 can be seen for

each scenario, where coal dominates in the Baseline but is curtailed in the CO2 runs.Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

Biofuel-fired, 564.3%

Biomass fired CHPs, 109.9%

Coal fired CHPs, 185.7%

Coal-fired, 743.5%

Gas fired CHPs, 334.0%

Gas-fired, 906.3%

Geothermal, 71.4%

Ref with UC90 2015




Coal-fired, 369.1%Gas fired CHPs,

415.7%

Gas-fired, 993.2%

Geothermal, 94.6%

CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) 2030




Coal-fired, 205.8%


Gas-fired, 367.5%

Geothermal, 38.6%

CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050) 2030




Coal-fired, 1321.2%


Gas-fired, 616.3%

Geothermal, 74.2%

Ref with UC90 2030

VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

Phase II Ideas –Augmenting VTS• Replace the use of UC_COMPRD with PRC_MARK for the fuel and

device type share constraints

• Introduce the new VEDA Parametric Scenario mechanism

• Look into ways to remove the SubRES (NT) links to the BY templates

by means of the use of FilTab to control which future technologies

are needed

• Improve process representation in the Industry sector

• Advance the unit labelling so derived from information in the EB

workbook

• Consider having 1 instance of every process available in US9rT in VTS

so that when EB changes & processes aren’t wanted they appear

commented out (for deletion) as opposed to having to add new

process instances [Unless VBA functionality added, see next slide]

• Setup “parallel” 2030 AXLS that uses 2-yr periods

• 2-region Starter example

• Addition scenarios (drawn from DemoS)

• Training video 37Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

Phase II Ideas –VBA Add-in Functions• Dependencies check in said XLS (with “New Model” facility)

• “Replicate Process” to introduce new technologies on BY SETUPo Prompt for components (assume same demand) - fuel, type, quality, etc.,

plus source data Sheet/Process name

o Insert entries (below?) rows in SETUP/Calibrate/Process/ProcData

• “Replicate Demand Service” to introduce new enduse demand service

on BY SETUPo Prompt for name / description, and ask if current block of devices in the

current service are to be duplicated

o Insert entries (below?) rows in

SETUP/EB/Calibrate/Commodities/CommData

o If devices block to be copied prompt for source data sheet, do “Replicate

Process” for each entity, without anything in the data source tech name

• Quick QC on parameters [minny AttributeMaster] on Comm/ProcData

sheetso Dump from VFE of AttributeMaster to control checks within the template

o Check that all attributes/qualifiers recognized

• Other (easy) QCso Warn if same header 2x [not necessarily a mistake]

38Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

39

Thank You!

Contact Information

[email protected]

Introduction to TIMES Methodology & TIMES-Starter Platform

introduction to the veda times-starter … · decisionware group llc policy analysis for energy,...

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