introduction to geoengineering for ecologists
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Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering Workshop Scripps, 31 Jan 2011. Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists. Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology [email protected]. Reuters: David Gray. www.sit.ac.nz. Reuters: David Gray. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists
Ken CaldeiraCarnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering WorkshopScripps, 31 Jan 2011
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Reuters: David Gray
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Reuters: David Gray
www.sit.ac.nz
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SolarRadiation
Management options
CarbonDioxide
Removal options
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Desire for
improvedwell-being Demand
for goods and
services
Demand for
energy
Impacts on
humans and
Climate change &
ocean
CO2 emission
s
CO2 in
ecosystems
acidification
atmosphere
Conservation
Efficiency
Low-carbonenergy
Carbon dioxide removal
Adaptation
Climateengineering
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Temperatures continue to increase throughout this
century in every plausible emissions scenario
IPCC TAR
There is no practical way for emissions reduction to reduce
temperatures this century
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Volcanoes caused global cooling by putting dust in the
stratosphere
Soden et al., 2002
Mt.
Pin
atu
bo
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Temperature effects of doubled CO2
ΔTemperature Statistical significance
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
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Temperature effects of doubled CO2
ΔTemperature Statistical significance
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight
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Precipitation effects of doubled CO2
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
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Temperature effects of doubled CO2
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight
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Zonal average precipitation and temperature
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
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Cao et al, in prep.
In HadCM3L, a coarse-resolution atmosphere-ocean GCM,perform outer product of (27) simulations starting from
-- 3 different initial conditions (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2)
-- 3 different CO2 levels (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2)
-- 3 different solar intensity levels (-2CO2eq, normal, +2CO2eq)
Perform linear regressions to separate dependencies on -- global mean temperature,
-- CO2-concentration, and
-- solar intensity.
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C – response per CO2-doublingS – response per equiv. solar increaseT – response per C warming
Cao et al, in prep.
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C – response per CO2-doublingS – response per equiv. solar increaseT – response per C warming
Cao et al, in prep.
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C – response per CO2-doublingS – response per equiv. solar increaseT – response per C warming
Cao et al, in prep.
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Main effects- High CO2
- Lower temperature
Secondary effects- Changes in PAR- Changes in precip/evap
Not considered- Changes in UV- Diffuse radiation- Everything else
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Trees Crops
Grasses
C4
Positive down
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Mt. Pinatubo and global ozone
Mt. Pinatubo
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Concluding suggestions• Consider consequences if people are
deploying measures thoughtfully
• Compare “geoengineered” state to both “natural” state of the system and the perturbed state in the absence of “geoengineering”
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