introduction to farming futures - claire wyatt (farming futures)
DESCRIPTION
This presentation formed part of the Farming Futures event 'FarmWater Futures'. 30th March 2010TRANSCRIPT
Farm Water FuturesWhat can you do to make your business fit for the future?
30th March 2010
Claire WyattForum for the Future
Profitable business in a changing climate
Outline of presentation
• Why hold an event like today?• How does agriculture contribute to climate change?• The political landscape
• Opportunities and Risks • What are some farmers already doing?
Profitable business in a changing climate
What is Farming Futures?
Profitable business in a changing climate
Information and inspiration
• Partnerships• Fact sheets• Case studies• On-farm events• Media profile
Profitable business in a changing climate
So, why is everyone talking about climate change?
Figure: Changes in Central England Temperature from 1877 to 2006 relative to the average over the 1961-90 baseline period (about 9.5 ºC). (Source: Met Office Hadley Centre)
The indisputable truth…
Its warmer…>1°C
Profitable business in a changing climate
Profitable business in a changing climate
50% believe climate
change is having an effect now
Profitable business in a changing climate
50% believe climate
change is having an effect now
63% think climate
change will have an effect
in next 10 years
Profitable business in a changing climate
50% believe climate
change is having an effect now
63% think climate
change will have an effect
in next 10 years
31% are taking action to adapt to the impacts
of climate change
Profitable business in a changing climate
• Agriculture contributes 7% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions:
• < 1% of carbon dioxide (CO2)• ~ 1/3rd of methane (CH4)• ~ 2/3rds of nitrous oxide (N2O)
Agriculture and climate change
Profitable business in a changing climate
And it’s going to keep on changing…Max summer temperature by 2050 up 3-4°C
Average winter temperature
2020: +1.3°C
2050: +2.2°C
2080: +3°C
Medium emissions scenario –OPTIMISTIC!
High emissions scenario mean summer temp by 2080: +4.9°C
Profitable business in a changing climate
What about rainfall?Winter rainfall up 10-20% by 2050
2020: -8%
2050: -20%
2080: -24%
Summer rainfall
Medium emissions scenario –OPTIMISTIC!
High emissions scenario by 2080: -30%
Profitable business in a changing climate
The political landscape
Profitable business in a changing climate
Targets and action plans
• Renewable Energy Strategy - 15% total energy by 2020• 30-40% of our elec from renewables
• Low carbon transition plan – 11% by 2020• GHG Action Plan (Climate change task force)• Campaigns and services
• Act on CO2• Defra Advisory Service • Carbon Trust loans
• Food security• Increase production
Profitable business in a changing climate
Low Carbon Transition Plan
Profitable business in a changing climate
What about water?
• 1.3 million hectares of farmland in floodplains• 40% loss of produce (2007) – £7-19m• Climate change could increase demand for
irrigation by 50% by 2050• This is for all farmers
• Prices going up• Abstraction licences• Opportunities to save
Profitable business in a changing climate
Who’s here to help?
• Environment Agency - Water resources strategy• Environment Agency - Rainwater as a resource• Farming Futures - Water management fact sheet• UK Irrigation Association - reports and publications
Profitable business in a changing climate
How?
• Improved efficiency and productivity
• Renewables
• Flood management
• Soil and Manure management
• Water management and harvesting
• Read the fact sheets and booklets!
Profitable business in a changing climate
What are farmers already doing?
Case study farmer – Elwyn Griffiths
Profitable business in a changing climate
Conclusions• Good news for UK farmers:
• Convergence of the food economy and the energy economy• Wider environmental goals • Global effects on world agriculture, and energy security issues• Potential for increased yields under warming + CO2• Cost savings via adaptation, efficiencies and mitigation tech
• Uncertainties remain:• Drought• Need to adapt and mitigate – costs and risks
• Plan for uncertainties through more conserved feeds and mix of crops and harvest / sowing times. Multi-purpose land use.
Profitable business in a changing climate
Any questions?
• www.farmingfutures.org.uk
• Claire Wyatt (project manager): [email protected] 2044340207 324 3670
Thank you!