World Population History: Introduction

IntroductionIntroductionHist3797: History of world populationsHist3797: History of world populations» 1. Course theme: how human populations grow 1. Course theme: how human populations grow

(and decrease) (and decrease) » 2. Some population theorists: 2. Some population theorists:

Malthus, Marx, and BoserupMalthus, Marx, and Boserup» 3. A paradigm: demographic transition3. A paradigm: demographic transition» 4. Genealogy of population history4. Genealogy of population history» 5. Sources: 5. Sources:

registers: births, deaths, marriagesregisters: births, deaths, marriagescensuses: lists, microdatacensuses: lists, microdata

» Commercial: IPUMS InternationalCommercial: IPUMS International

World Population History: Introduction

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World population doublings:World population doublings:1 AD to 2000 and beyond1 AD to 2000 and beyond

0.250.250.50.5

11 2244

1 AD 1 AD 1/4 billion1/4 billion1550 1550 1/21/218251825 1119251925 2219771977 442025?2025? 8?8?

World Population History: Introduction

2. Three social philosophers: 2. Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and BoserupMalthus, Marx and Boserup

»Thomas R. Malthus, Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the An Essay on the Principle of PopulationPrinciple of Population (1798): (1798): Population increases geometrically; Population increases geometrically; subsistence, arithmetically. Poverty is the subsistence, arithmetically. Poverty is the result unless there is “moral restraint”. result unless there is “moral restraint”.

»Karl Marx, Karl Marx, Das KapitalDas Kapital (1867): Each (1867): Each mode of production has its corresponding mode of production has its corresponding mode of reproduction. mode of reproduction.

World Population History: Introduction

Three social philosophers: Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and BoserupMalthus, Marx and Boserup

»Esther Boserup, Esther Boserup, The Conditions of The Conditions of Agricultural GrowthAgricultural Growth (1965), demographic (1965), demographic pressure (population density) promotes pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labor intensification, better seeds) and labor (tools, better techniques).(tools, better techniques).

World Population History: Introduction

3. Demographic transition: 3. Demographic transition: phase shifts in mortality and phase shifts in mortality and

fertilityfertility

growth rateDecline

A post-modern phase?--low death rates, lower birth rates,

negative growth rates.

World Population History: Introduction

4. Genealogy of historical 4. Genealogy of historical demographydemography

»Political arithmetic (1665)Political arithmetic (1665)John Graunt, London Bills of MortalityJohn Graunt, London Bills of Mortality

»Demographic methods applied to the past Demographic methods applied to the past Louis Henry (1957): natural fertility, Louis Henry (1957): natural fertility,

family reconstitutionfamily reconstitution»Household and family in past timeHousehold and family in past time

Peter Laslett (1972): 3 generation families Peter Laslett (1972): 3 generation families were rare in the past due to high mortalitywere rare in the past due to high mortality

World Population History: Introduction

5. Data5. Data

»Vital events registers (church, civil):Vital events registers (church, civil):births, deaths, marriagesbirths, deaths, marriages»compute demographic rates from family compute demographic rates from family

genealogiesgenealogies»project demographic stats from annual project demographic stats from annual

totalstotals»Censuses: Censuses:

population listspopulation listsmicrodata (computerized individual data)microdata (computerized individual data)

World Population History: Introduction

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16th century Aztec census 16th century Aztec census (in Nahuatl, (in Nahuatl, 1530s1530s): “Here is the home of...”): “Here is the home of...”

translatranslatedted

(from Museum of Antropology, (from Museum of Antropology, Mexico City)Mexico City) original original

ms.ms.

microdmicrodataata

transcritranscribedbed

World Population History: Introduction

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121001026007007200000112100001042220020260070072000001121000010432300100600700720000012123000000423002004007000000000000000000005230020020070000000000000000000062300200000700000000000000000000

Digital microdata of the Digital microdata of the late 20th centurylate 20th century

World Population History: Introduction

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- Commercial - - Commercial -

World Population History: Introduction

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The origin of The origin of IPUMSIPUMSi i is is IPUMS-USA... IPUMS-USA...

www.ipums.org/usa: Census microdata samples www.ipums.org/usa: Census microdata samples (1-6%) for the USA, 1850 to 2000(1-6%) for the USA, 1850 to 2000

www.ipums.org/international : :» Inventory the world’s census microdataInventory the world’s census microdata» Preserve themPreserve them»Harmonize microHarmonize microdata and metadatadata and metadata» Disseminate Disseminate via the webvia the web» Free to all, Free to all, thanks to NSF & NIHthanks to NSF & NIH

World Population History: Introduction

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IPUMS-International, November IPUMS-International, November 20052005

dark greendark green = = disseminatingdisseminatingmedium green = integratingmedium green = integratinglightest greenlightest green = negotiating = negotiating

World Population History: Introduction

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Integrating African Census Integrating African Census MicrodataMicrodata

dark greendark green = = disseminatingdisseminatingmedium green = integratingmedium green = integratinglightest greenlightest green = negotiating = negotiating

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- End - - End -

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Plagiarism:Plagiarism:““Up, up, up, groping through the clouds for what Up, up, up, groping through the clouds for what seemed like an eternity. ... No amount of practice seemed like an eternity. ... No amount of practice could have prepared them for what they could have prepared them for what they encountered. B-24s, glittering like mica, were encountered. B-24s, glittering like mica, were popping up out of the clouds all over the sky.”popping up out of the clouds all over the sky.”——Thomas Childers, Thomas Childers, Wings of MorningWings of Morning, Page 83, as , Page 83, as cited in Barnes' piececited in Barnes' piece.."Up, up, up he went, until he got above the clouds. "Up, up, up he went, until he got above the clouds. No amount of practice could have prepared the No amount of practice could have prepared the pilot and crew for what they encountered—B-24s, pilot and crew for what they encountered—B-24s, glittering like mica, were popping up out of the glittering like mica, were popping up out of the clouds over here, over there, everywhere."clouds over here, over there, everywhere."——Stephen Ambrose, Stephen Ambrose, The Wild BlueThe Wild Blue, Page 164, Page 164, , as as cited by Barnescited by Barnes..