SESSION PLAN

Introduction 10 minutes

Objectives 30 minutes

Example, Case Study 10 minutes

Group Discussion 30 minutes

Exercise 10 minutes

Conclusions 10 minutes

Low

Em

issi

ons

Land

Use

Pla

nnin

g D

evel

opm

ent T

eam

AcknowledgementsName Affiliation Name AffiliationDavid Saah; Co-Lead University of San Francisco, SIG Phan Xuan Thieu Vinh University, Vietnam

Mohd Zaki Hamzah; Co-Lead University Putra Malaysia Chalita Sriladda USAID-LEAD

Khamla Phanvilay, Co-Lead National University of Laos Hoang Thi Thu Duyen Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam

Cao Thuy Anh Dalat University, Vietnam Ladawan Puangchit Kasetsart University, Thailand

Chalermpol Samranpong Chiang Mai University, Thailand Do Anh Tuan Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam

Pham Thanh Nam USAID LEAF Vietnam Lyna Khan Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Peter Stephen USAID LEAF Bangkok Le Ba Thuong Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam

Hoang Vinh Phu Vinh University, Vietnam Napat Jakwattana University of Phayao, Thailand

Vipak Jintana Kasetsart University, Thailand Nur Anishah Binti Aziz University Kebangsaan Malaysia

Kulala Mulung PNG University of Technology Ratcha Chaichana Kasetsart University, Thailand

Somvilay Chanthalounnavong National University of Laos Sureerat Lakanavichian Chiang Mai University, Thailand

Thavrak Huon Royal University of Agriculture, Cambodia Vongphet Sihapanya National University of Laos

Athsaphangthong Munelith USAID LEAF Laos David Ganz USAID LEAF Bangkok

Attachai Jintrawet Chiang Mai University, Thailand Chi Pham, Project Coordinator USAID LEAF Bangkok

Chanin Chiumkanokchai USAID LEAF Bangkok Kent Elliott US Forest Service

Lam Ngoc Tuan Dalat University, Vietnam Beth Lebow US Forest Service

Mark Fenn USAID Vietnam Forests & Deltas Geoffrey Blate US Forest Service

Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP)Section 3. Analysis of Options

3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction

Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development

LELUP Framework

ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CONDITION

ANALYSIS OF FUTURE

OPTIONS

NEGOTIATING &

PRIORITIZINGIMPLEMENTA-

TION PLAN

MONITORING & EVALUATION

Low Emission Land Use Planning

1.1. Regulatory Assessments

1.2. Stakeholder Engagement

1.3. Planning & Development Goals & Objectives

2.1. Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs

2.2. Understanding Historic Land Use Change

2.3. Data & Capacity Gap Assessment

3.1. Modeling Future Trends

3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction

Rules of the Game

Where does the baseline fit in?

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

Goal / Objective

NO

W

Past Trend / Current ConditionBaseline

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

+ / -

+ / -

+ / -

Learning Objectives

At the end of this session, learners will be able to:

Identify the role and importance of a ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU) baseline in Low Emission Land Use Planning framework.

Select appropriate baseline quantification approach

Baseline

Baseline: Is what you measure your scenario against

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

NO

W

Past Trend / Current Condition BASELINE

Scenario

Performance

Business As Usual (BAU)

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

NO

W

Past Trend / Current Condition

Business As Usual (BAU)

Scenario

Performance

Baseline: Is what you measure your scenario against

Example

Efficient Baseline

Efficient baseline case, which assumes that all resources are employed efficiently

“business-as-usual” baseline case , which assumes that future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies will take place.

Reference Level: Historic Trend

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

NO

WPast Trend / Current Condition

Reference Level (Historic Trend)

Reference Level: Historic Mean

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

NO

WPast Trend / Current Condition

Reference Level (Historic Mean)

Reference Level: Policy

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

NO

WPast Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Policy)

Reference Level: Relative To each other

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

NO

WPast Trend / Current Condition

Reference Level (Historic Mean)

Reference Level (Historic Trend)

Reference Level (Policy)

Roles of a Baseline

Provide information on existing development objectives

Forecast and evaluate potential future scenarios

See the impact of climate change to the current situation

Optimize the current situation to meet desired conditions.

Develop alternative approaches

Terms can get confusing…

Years

tCO2e Emissions

-10 - 5 5 10Today

Reference Level(Business as Usual without Project)

PerformanceEmission Reduction

Start LE LUP ActivitiesHistorical Emissions(Actual Emissions)

Emissions with REDD+ Project(Monitored Emissions)

Baseline Needs to meet these standards

Transparency Consistency Comparability Completeness Accuracy Conservative

From: GOFC-GOLD 2009

Baseline ConstructionHOW DO WE DO THIS?

How? Reference Level Historic trend

Baseline Specific existing policy change /

New policy adopted Defined reference condition

Time/Space

Driv

ers

of C

hang

e

NO

WPast Trend / Current Condition

Reference Level (Historic Trend)

Land Use Change

IPCC guideline

Unit : t CO2e ha-1

Drivers analysis Historic Emissions Estimate for REDD+

Activity Data Emission/removal Data

Deforestation Degradation Enhancement Deforestation Degradation Enhancement

Activity Data

Activity data (AD) – measure of extent of activity Spatial extent of land cover transition due to deforestation, degradation,

carbon stock enhancement

Obtained from change detection of remote sensing products or other sources

such as timber extraction statistics

Units : Deforestation Area of gross deforestation per year: ha

Forest degradation

From logging activities: ha/yr

From fuel wood collection: m3/yr Forest enhancement Tree planting: ha/yr

Emission Factors

Emission factors (EF) – emissions/removals of GHG per unit activity Obtained from field data on carbon stocks, tree removals,

regrowth rates etc. Measured in tCO2e/unit

Calculate out Baseline

Net Emissions from Change =

Activity Data

Area of change (hectares)

X

Emission Factor

Emissions per hectare of change(tCO2e/ha)

BAU?

BAU?

BAU?

Which one is the BAU and Why?

1 2 3 4 5

(100,000)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Historical Time Period

Emis

sion

s (t

CO

2e)

Lam Dong Reference Level

Discuss on the regression coefficient

y = 84445x + 258058R² = 0.5435

Total Historical emissions (t CO2e)

Example Baselines

0 1 2 3 4 5 (100,000)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Time period

Emis

sion

s (t

CO

2e)

Deforestation

Degradation

Total

Afforestation /Re-forestation

Example - Lam Dong Trend Line

Enhancement

Class discussion

Lam Dong, Vietnam Case Study BAU scenario

GDP growth rate : 20%

Population growth rate : 1.2%

Forest decline by 0.3%

Demands in electricity : 500MW (to 2020)

Challenges

Not a lot of data is available Setting a BAU baseline is a policy decision and therefore

political pressures may come into play. The ‘nesting’ or integration of project and/or sub-

national Reference Levels into national level Reference Levels will be complex.

Opportunities

This is NEW: The sharing of information and learning should lead to an openness and desire to share methodologies across jurisdictional and sector boundaries

TAKE HOME MESSAGES

A reference level for LE LUP is established and agreed upon by stake holders

A BAU scenario provides the benchmark against which future emission reductions and removals can be measured.

A BAU is a policy decision.

Guidelines for REDD+ Reference Levels: Principles and Recommendations , Meridian Institute

Technical Background Paper IPCC Guidelines for REDD+

Reference Levels, Patrick Van Laake (UN-REDD)

Project Green House Gases Emission

References