internet services

Internet Services Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2004-2009 [HR.CTD012.V1U1-2009] Dr.-Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/21/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

2

Internet Services

Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Contents

List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3

Legacy / Non-Mobile Market ................................................................................................. 4

Mobile & Non-Mobile Market ............................................................................................... 6

APJII Numbers – Comparison ............................................................................................ 10

Growth ................................................................................................................................. 12

Telkom DSL ......................................................................................................................... 15

Telkom Dial-Up ................................................................................................................... 16

First Media .......................................................................................................................... 17

Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 18

3

Internet Services


List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1 Legacy / Non-Mobile Internet Subscribers 2004-2009 ......................................... 4 Figure 2 Portion of Subscribers of Legacy Internet Market 2009 ...................................... 5 Figure 3 Portions of Legacy Internet Market 2004-2009 .................................................... 5 Figure 4 Legacy & Mobile Internet Intensive (MI-I) Subscribers ...................................... 6 Figure 5 Portion / Composition of Legacy & MI-I Market .................................................. 6 Figure 6 Composition of Internet Market 2009 (Legacy & MI-I) ........................................ 7 Figure 7 Legacy & Mobile Internet (MI) Subscribers.......................................................... 8 Figure 8 Portion / Composition of Legacy & MI Market ..................................................... 8 Figure 9 Composition of Internet Market 2009 (Legacy & MI) .......................................... 9 Figure 10 Comparison of APJII’s & Recordable Legacy Internet Subscribers ................ 10 Figure 11 Comparison of APJII’s & Compound MII+Legacy Internet Subscribers ........ 10 Figure 12 Comparison of APJII’s & Compound MI+Legacy Internet Subscribers .......... 11

Table 1 Legacy / Non-Mobile Internet Subscribers 2004-2009 ........................................... 4 Table 2 Portion / Percentage of Legacy Internet Market .................................................... 4 Table 3 Number of Subscribers of Legacy Internet, MI, and MI-I Market ........................ 7

Figure Table 1 Growth of Compound MII+Legacy Internet Subscribers ......................... 12 Figure Table 2 Growth of MII+Legacy Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ................................ 12 Figure Table 3 Growth of Compound MI+Legacy Internet Subscribers .......................... 13 Figure Table 4 Growth of MI+Legacy Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ................................. 13 Figure Table 5 Growth of Legacy Internet Subscribers .................................................... 14 Figure Table 6 Growth of Legacy Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ........................................ 14 Figure Table 7 Growth TLKM’s DSL Subscribers 2004-2009........................................... 15 Figure Table 8 Growth of TLKM’s DSL Subs. (AGR & CAGR) ........................................ 15 Figure Table 9 Growth TLKM’s Dial-Up Subscribers 2004-2009 ..................................... 16 Figure Table 10 Growth of TLKM’s Dial-Up Subs. (AGR & CAGR) ................................ 16 Figure Table 11 Growth of First Media Subscribers 2007-2009 ....................................... 17 Figure Table 12 Growth of First Media Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) .............................. 17

Harewhttp://

TLKM DSTLKM DOthers

TLKM DSTLKM DOthers

wos.Resear/www.ligar

Figure 1

SL ial‐Up

Table 1

SL ial‐Up

Table

50

1,00

1,50

2,000

2,500

I

rch rvirtual.com

Leg

Legacy /

2004E 11,000 457,000 400,000

Legacy /

2004E 1.27 52.65 46.08

2 Portion

0

00,000

00,000

00,000

0,000

0,000

20

InternTL

m/harewos

gacy /

/ Non-Mob

2005E 31,000 500,000 440,000

Non-Mob

2005E 3.19 51.49 45.31

n / Percen

04E 2005E

net SubLKM DSL

/ Non

bile Inter

2006E93,000680,000470,000

bile Inter

2006E7.48 54.71 37.81

ntage of L

E 2006E 2

bscribTLKM Di

n-Mo

rnet Subs

2007E241,00662,00500,00

net Subs

2007E17.1847.1835.64

Legacy In

2007E 200

bers - Lial-Up O

obile

scribers 2

E 2000 645,0 574,0 550,

cribers 2

E 20036.32.31.

nternet M

8E 2009No

LegacyOthers

Internet S

Mar

2004-2009

08E 20000 97000 50000 62

2004-2009

08E 2046 445 209 2

Market

ov

y

4

Services

ket

9

009Nov 79,000 00,000 20,000

009Nov 46.64 23.82 29.54

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F


Figure 2 P

Figur

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Per

cent

age

M

rch rvirtual.com

Portion of

re 3 Porti

T

Oth29

Mar

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Marke

m/harewos

f Subscri

ions of Le

TLKM Dial-Up24%

hers9%

rket Co

t Com

ibers of L

egacy Int

-

ompos

mpositi

Legacy In

ernet Ma

TL

sition

ion 200

nternet M

arket 2004

LKM DSL47%

2009

04-200

TLKMTLKMOthe

Internet S

Market 200

4-2009

9

M DSLM Dial-Up

ers

5

Services

09

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F


Figure 4 L

Figure

1,

2,

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

2

rch rvirtual.com

Mob

Legacy &

e 5 Portio

0

,000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

Le

91.9%

8.1%

2007E

Mark

m/harewos

bile &

Mobile I

on / Comp

2007E

egacy &

ket ComLL

& Non

nternet I

position o

2008E

& MI-I

70.2%

29.8%

2008E

mpositLegacyLegacy

n-Mo

Intensive

of Legacy

2009Nov

I Mark

tion: My

MI-I

obile

e (MI-I) Su

y & MI-I M

ket

ML

32.8%

67.2%

2009N

MI-I &

Internet S

Mar

ubscriber

Market

MI-ILegacy

%

%

ov

6

Services

ket

rs

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F

Legacy MI‐I MI

Table


Figure 6

e 3 Numb

rch rvirtual.com

Composit

1,12,

ber of Sub

m/harewos

tion of In

2007E ,403,000 122,843 ,764,746

bscribers

MI-I67%

CompMI-I

nternet M

of Legac

ositionI & Leg

Market 20

2008E 1,769,000750,939 5,875,528

cy Interne

Legacy33%

n 2009gacy

09 (Legac

et, MI, an

9

Internet S

cy & MI-I

2009No2,099,004,295,2410,836,6

nd MI-I M

7

Services

I)

ov 00 49 67

Market

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Figu

Figur

2

4

6

8

10

12,

14,

2

rch rvirtual.com

ure 7 Leg

re 8 Porti

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

L

33.7%

66.3%

2007E

Mark

m/harewos

acy & Mo

ion / Com

2007E

Legacy

ket CoL

obile Inte

mposition

2008E

y & MI

23.1%

76.9%

2008E

omposiLegacy

Legacy

ernet (MI

of Legac

2009Nov

Mark

ition: My

MI

) Subscri

cy & MI M

et

ML

16.2%

83.8%

2009N

MI &

Internet S

ibers

Market

MILegacy

%

%

ov

8

Services

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Figure 9

rch rvirtual.com

Compos

m/harewos

ition of I

MI84%

CompMI

nternet M

Le

%

osition& Leg

Market 20

egacy16%

n 2009gacy

009 (Lega

9

Internet S

acy & MI)

9

Services

)

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F

Fig


A

Figure 10

gure 11 Co

1,087,

868,0

2004

rch rvirtual.com

APJI

Compari

ompariso

,4281,500

000 971,

4E 200

2,000,000

1,525,843

2007E

m/harewos

I Nu

ison of APS

on of APJS

0,0001,700

0001,243

5E 200

A

APJ

mbe

PJII’s & Rubscribe

JII’s & Coubscribe

0,000

2,000

3,000 1,40

06E 20

APJII

3,000,000

2,519,939

2008E

JII Le

rs – C

Recordabrs

ompound rs

0,000

3,00

03,0001,76

07E 20

Legacy

6,394

egacy+MII

Comp

ble Legac

MII+Leg

00,000

3,5

69,0002,0

008E 20

3,500,000

,249

2009E

Internet S

paris

cy Interne

gacy Inter

00,000

99,000

009E

0

10

Services

son

et

rnet

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Fig


gure 12 C

rch rvirtual.com

ompariso

2,000,000

4,167,746

2007E

m/harewos

on of APJS

7

APJ

JII’s & Coubscribe

3,000,000

7,644,528

2008E

JII Le

ompoundrs

egacy+MI

d MI+Lega

3,500,000

12,935,66

2009E

Internet S

acy Inter

0

7

11

Services

rnet

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Figur

Fig


re Table

gure Tab

1

2

3

4

5,

6,

7,

#Su

A

11111

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

1 Growth

ble 2 Grow

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

000,000

ubs. 1,5

#Subs

AGRCAGR

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0

#Subs

m/harewos

h of Comp

wth of MI

2007

2007525,843

scribe

200865.265.2

scribe

pound MI

II+Legacy

2008

2002,519

ers - Le

105%

822

rs - Le

II+Legac

y Subscri

82

089,939

egacy

%

egacy

G

cy Interne

ibers (AG

2009

20096,394,24

& MII

2009153.7104.7

& MII

Internet S

Grow

et Subscr

GR & CAG

9

12

Services

wth

ribers

GR)

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Figu

Fi


ure Table

igure Tab

2

4

6,

8,

10,

12,0

14,0

#Sub

A

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

3 Growth

ble 4 Grow

0

2,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

2bs. 4,1

#Sub

AGRCAGR

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

#Sub

m/harewos

h of Com

wth of MI

2007

200767,746

bscribe

200883.483.4

bscribe

mpound M

I+Legacy

2008

2007,644

ers - L

76%

844

ers - Le

MI+Legacy

y Subscrib

8

084,528

egacy

%

egacy

y Interne

bers (AG

2009

200912,935,6

& MI

200969.276.2

& MI

Internet S

et Subscri

R & CAG

667

13

Services

ibers

GR)

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Figur

Figure T

5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,50

#Sub

A

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

re Table 5

Table 6 Gr

0

500,000

000,000

500,000

00,000

00,000

2bs. 1,4

#S

AGRCAGR

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

#S

m/harewos

5 Growth

rowth of

2007

2007403,000

Subscr

200826.126.1

Subscr

h of Legac

Legacy S

2008

2001,769

ribers

22%

811

ribers

cy Intern

Subscribe

2

089,000

- Lega

%

- Lega

net Subscr

ers (AGR

2009

20092,099,00

acy

200918.722.3

acy

Internet S

ribers

& CAGR)

00

14

Services

)

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Figure

Figure T

1,0

#Su

A

1

1

2

2

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Table 7 G

Table 8 G

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000000,000

2004ubs. 11,000

#Sub

2AGR 18CAGR 18

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

#Sub

m/harewos

Growth T

Growth of

2004 2005

4 20050 31,000

bscrib

005 281.8 2081.8 19

bscrib

TLKM’s D

f TLKM’s

5 2006 2

200693,000

bers - T

145%

006 200.0 190.8 1

bers - T

T

SL Subsc

DSL Sub

2007 200

2007241,000 6

TLKM

%

2007 259.1 179.8 1

TLKM

Telko

cribers 20

bs. (AGR &

8 2009

2008 2645,000 97

DSL

2008 267.6 576.7 1

DSL

Internet S

om D

004-2009

& CAGR)

20099,000

20091.7845.4

15

Services

DSL

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F

Fi


Figure Ta

igure Tab

4

5

6

7

#S

A

Per

cent

age

#

rch rvirtual.com

able 9 Gr

ble 10 Gr

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2

2004ubs. 457,00

#Sub

2AGR 9CAGR 9

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

#Subs

m/harewos

rowth TLK

owth of T

2004 2005

4 200500 500,000

bscrib

005 29.4 39.4 2

scriber

KM’s Dia

TLKM’s D

5 2006 2

20060 680,000

ers - TUp

006 236.0 -22.0 1

rs - TL

Telk

al-Up Sub

Dial-Up Su

007 2008

2007662,000 5

TLKM

2007 2-2.6 -113.1

LKM D

kom D

bscribers

ubs. (AGR

2009

2008 2574,000 500

Dial-

2%

2008 213.3 -15.9

Dial-Up

Internet S

Dial-

2004-2009

R & CAG

0090,000

200912.891.8

p

16

Services

-Up

9

R)

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Fig


Figure T

gure Tabl

1

12

14

16

#Su

A

11111

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Table 11 G

le 12 Gro

020,00040,00060,000

80,000

00,000

20,000

40,000

60,000

ubs. 4

#Sub

AGRCAGR

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0

#Sub

m/harewos

Growth of

wth of Fi

2007

200740,991

bscribe

94

2008168.4168.4

bscribe

f First Me

irst Medi

2008

200110,0

ers - F

4%

844

ers - F

edia Subs

a Subscr

20

08000

First M

First M

First

scribers 2

ibers (AG

009

2009155,000

Media

200940.994.5

Media

Internet S

t Me

2007-2009

GR & CAG

0

17

Services

dia

9

GR)

18

Internet Services


Abbreviations & Notes

AGR Annual Growth Rate

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

2008E End of 2008

2009Nov As of November 2009

MI Mobile Internet i.e. Internet access via cellular & FWA networks

MI-I Mobile Internet - Intensive

FWA Fixed Wireless Access

DSL Digital Subscriber Line

APJII

Asosiasi Penyelenggara Jasa Internet Indonesia i.e. Indonesian Internet Service Provider Association

TLKM

PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia (PT. Telkom)

internet services

Data & Analytics