“ECONOMY, ENERGY AND SECURITY; NEW OPPORTUNITIES”

International Mediterranean Conference Istanbul April 2016Dr Cyril WiddershovenSVP Research MEA-Risk.comFounder VEROCY.comSenior Fellow Hazar Strategy Mob: +31-6-53819265, Skype: Cyril.widdershovenEmail: cw@mea-risk.com; cyril.widdershoven@verocy.com

Setting the Scene: Turmoil and Instability

• Intro• Global Market• Europe’s Energy Situation• North Africa oil and gas• Levant Opportunities• Arab Spring Repercussions• Turkey’s Promise• Future Scenario

MEA-Risk.com• MEA Risk LLC performs tracking/alerting activity, risk

rating and analysis specific to the Africa and Middle East. Tracking and alerting are related to events and incidents that constitute critical risk factors to countries, organizations and individuals.

• Events and incidents are captured by teams on the ground, and summarized, analyzed and immediately disseminated.

VEROCY.com

World Oil Markets: Blood on the Wall?

Global Demand Growth Slowth

Overall Demand Growth Still There!

Global Production Growth Takes Plunge

Non-OPEC Supply Hit Hard 2016

Oversupply Threatened, Investments Deferrals Will Cause Deficit (soon?)

CAPEX

North Africa- Middle East Energy Turmoil

OPEC Production: Saudi-Iran potential

Middle East Still Centre of Universe?

European Energy Security Situation or Crisis?

EU Strategy or Fata Morgana?

North Africa Oil & Gas Pipelines

East Med to the Rescue?

Levant Promising?

Egypt’s return as LNG exporter?

Land of Milk & Gas or Disputes Continuing?

Mediterranean Security Threats

Threats or Opportunities EU-MED

Threats: • Syrian implosion continues, Russian influence growing

• Iranian influence growing (Syria, Lebanon, Iraq military and Turkey Energy)

• Arab Spring implosion of Arab Societies and Power Structures• Democracy – Theocracy – Enlightened Dictatorship

• Economic Security North Africa Levant under pressure

• Energy Security Levant (Israel-Cyprus-Lebanon-Turkey) under pressure

Future Mediterranean Security Bleak

• After decades of possibilities to have an integrated zone energy security, MED has become world’s leading area of energy insecurity • Arab Spring and Western interventions have led to instability, destruction of state structures and power arrangements• Arab Spring revolutions and post-revolution power struggle has led to decline in oil gas supplies• Re-emergence of European/West – Russian power politics, Putin leading Russian advance• Arab Spring and Ukraine led to renewed Russian – European conflict, forcing Europe to seek new supplies• Sanctions on Russia are NOT working, European countries split on sanctions implementation• Turkey-Russia conflict continuing, Russian gas supplies to Turkey constraint

Algeria Energy Critical Incidents 2015-2016

Libya Energy Critical Incidents 2015-2016

Egypt Energy Critical Incidents 2015-2016

Underlying issues: Syria-Russia-ISIS

Lines of Conflict and Oil Revenues?

Europe Security of Energy vs Russian Bear

Europe’s Security Threats

Europe’s alternatives in MENA ?

Economical issues:

• EU financial crisis (Greece, Portugal, Italy) has led to lower interest for North Africa – Levant

• Lower investments in North Africa and European interference have increased declining economics North African countries (Egypt, Algeria)

• Economic instability and political interference has led to lower growth or economic decline

• North Africa expected to feel competition of US shale oil/gas developments

• North African oil and gas exports to Europe also constraint by LNG market developments Qatar, Iran, Australia, Mozambique

• Insecurity North Africa and Levant has led to lower investment budgets and divestments IOCs

Future Options:

• Europe needs to implement European Foreign Energy Strategy

• Europe needs to engage (on equal footing) North African regimes in stability projects

• NATO needs to engage fully with North African and Arab States to set up applicable security structures

• NATO-GCC military cooperation could be used to support equal developments in North Africa-Levant

• Turkey needs to act as main power broker, together with Egypt-Saudi Arabia-UAE and Israel, to set up workable security and military operations to quell unrest and instability

Main focus at present should be to:

• Approach Libyan crisis with a direct and functional military approach, combined with economic support for recognized government

• Support Algeria to quell growing security issues in south and Kabilya regions

• Address Egyptian security issues on an equal footing, setting up combined security operations in Sinai, Western Desert and especially around the Suez Canal

• Set up trilateral security-energy working group between Israel-Cyprus and Turkey, to deal with outstanding issues, to force a solution on energy (offshore oil/gas) and security issues

• Address in overall security arrangements the growing strategic role that Turkey will and has to play in the European security and energy future

• Don’t have any unilateral Western military operations in the region anymore, as the results of Syria, Libya and Egypt’s Facebook revolutions have been vastly negative

Info• Dr. Cyril Widdershoven is currently SVP Research of US-based consultancy MEA-Risk.com and co-founder of Dutch

critical risk (defense/security/energy MENA) consultancy VEROCY. He also is Fellow of IAGS US (www.IAGS.org) and Senior Fellow of Turkish strategic thinktank HAZAR..

• Dr. Widdershoven is a long-time observer of the global energy market with focus on geopolitical risk, terrorism, fundamentalism and military/defense related issues in the MENA region. Presently, he holds several advisory positions with international think tanks in the Middle East and energy sectors in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In earlier career assignments, he held positions at Capgemini Consulting, Deloitte Financial Advisory Services, and as Senior Financial Analyst Oil & Gas Sector FDA, where he managed and advised the oil and gas department on equity and bond markets, with the main targets being Shell, BP, Total, Eni, BG, Heerema, Fugro, DSM, Dow Chemicals, BASF, Statoil, Schlumberger, Halliburton, PSG, and Repsol.

• Dr. Widdershoven held several senior publishing positions in leading energy publications such as Afroil, Middle East Oil and Gas, and North Africa Oil and Gas Magazine Cairo, and he continues to oversee the Mediterranean Energy Political Risk Consultancy. Dr. Widdershoven worked on M&A operations in Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and Iran, he studied the pipeline operations in Libya, Algeria, Nigeria and Turkey, and he assessed risk for institutional investors and banks in Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq, all while advising the Dutch government and international organizations on related issues.

• Dr. Widdershoven has throughout his career lived and worked in numerous Middle East countries, with a home base in Egypt, where he was Head of Investment and Research at ARTOC Group for Investment and Development in Cairo. He is also has founded North Africa’s first English language oil and gas monthly North Africa Oil and Gas Magazine, now called Petroleum Africa, and was one of the founders of the Middle East Oil Gas Newsletter and Africa Oil Newsletter at Newsbase (UK).

• Dr. Widdershoven earned his post graduate degrees at King’s College, University of London, Department of War Studies, and an MA in Middle East Studies at the University of Nijmegen, Netherlands.