international institute for applied systems analysis (iiasa)
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). RAINS-Asia Phase 2: An Integrated Assessment Model for Controlling SO 2 Emissions in Asia. M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets. Contents. Model structure - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RAINS-Asia Phase 2:
An Integrated Assessment Model
for Controlling SO2 Emissions
in Asia
M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets
IIASA
Contents
• Model structure
• Improvements
• Illustrative results
• Conclusions
IIASA
Improvements achieved in Phase 2
• Updated energy projections (2030)
• 400 LPS
• Flexible region definition, zoom-in capabilities
• Multi-year meteorology
• SO2 concentrations in ambient air
• Improved database on critical loads with
0.1*0.1 degree resolution
• Windows-based software
• Improved user guidance
• Optimization feature
IIASA
SO2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998 Source: Streets et al., 2000
IIASA
A revised energy projection for ChinaSource: ERI, Beijing
Changes 1995-2020:
Population +25 %
GDP +420 %
Total energy demand +70 %
Coal +50 %
Gas +300 %
Renewables +30 %
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SO2 concentrationsannual mean [g/m3], WHO limit = 50 g/m3
2020 withcurrent legislation
1995
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Sulfur deposition
2020 withcurrent legislation
1995
IIASA
Vegetation map of AsiaSource: CCE, RIVM
IIASA
Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels (critical loads)
2020 withcurrent legislation
1995
IIASA
Optimization in RAINS
Energy/agriculture projections
Emissions
Emission control options
Atmospheric dispersion
Environmental impactsEnvironmental targets
Costs OPTIMIZATION
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Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls
Current legislation
in 2020
14
19
24
29
34
39
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60Emissions, million tons SO2
Co
sts,
bill
ion
US
$9
5/y
ea
r
Case A:Return to emissions of 1990
Case C:Return to excess deposition of 1990
Case B:Return to deposition of 1990
IIASA
Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls
14
19
24
29
34
39
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Unprotected ecosystems (million hectares)
Em
issi
on
co
ntr
ol c
ost
s (b
illio
n $
)
Return to emissions
Return to deposition
Return to excess deposition
19901995
2000
2020 with current legislation
IIASA
Conclusions
• RAINS-Asia 2 now available on CD-ROM
• SO2 emissions projections lower than 5 years agodue to slower economic growth and new legislation on emission controls
• But acidification problem in Asia will not be fully resolved
• Optimization tool can assist in finding cost-effective solutions
• Extension to multi-pollutant (PM, NOx, O3, GHG?) approach seems possible and relevant
IIASA
RAINS Asia 2
Software on CD-ROM available– Contact Asian Development Bank– or IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains)
Training sessions planned
Zooming-in for national purposes possible, supported by IIASA
IIASA
Slides of this presentation
in Powerpoint format
are available at
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains
On the Internet