international c20c project: background for this meeting j. kinter, cola, usa c. folland, met office,...

International C20C International C20C Project: Project:

Background for Background for this Meetingthis Meeting

J. Kinter, COLA, USA J. Kinter, COLA, USA

C. Folland, Met Office, UKC. Folland, Met Office, UK

Joint C20C/WGSIP WorkshopJoint C20C/WGSIP Workshop

4-6 July 2005 4-6 July 2005 Prague, Czech Prague, Czech RepublicRepublic

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere

Studies

BackgroundBackground

Purpose: Characterize variability Purpose: Characterize variability and predictability of climatic and predictability of climatic conditions and events of the past conditions and events of the past ~150 years associated with various ~150 years associated with various slowly varying forcing functions slowly varying forcing functions including SST.including SST.

Initially focused on AGCMs forced Initially focused on AGCMs forced with HadISST sea surface with HadISST sea surface temperature and sea ice analysistemperature and sea ice analysis


Studies

Background (continued)Background (continued) Period of interest: 1871-currentPeriod of interest: 1871-current Organization:Organization:

Jointly organized by Hadley Centre, UK & Center for Jointly organized by Hadley Centre, UK & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USAOcean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USA

15 different modeling groups participating 15 different modeling groups participating internationallyinternationally

CLIVAR project & reporting to WMO/CAS/WGNECLIVAR project & reporting to WMO/CAS/WGNE Now includes many other forcing data sets, Now includes many other forcing data sets,

including greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic including greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols and solar variabilityaerosols and solar variability

Being expanded to include use of coupled models Being expanded to include use of coupled models in order to more accurately simulate modes of in order to more accurately simulate modes of variability that are inherently coupledvariability that are inherently coupled


Studies

Current Participating Current Participating GroupsGroups

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (www.bom.gov.au)) China Meteorological Agency, China (China Meteorological Agency, China (www.cma.gov.cn)) Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA (www.iges.org)) Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Brazil (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Brazil (www.cptec.inpe.br)) Department of Natural Resources, Mines & Energy, Queensland, Australia Department of Natural Resources, Mines & Energy, Queensland, Australia

((www.nrm.qld.gov.au)) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA (gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov)) Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK (Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK (www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre)) International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy (International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy (www.ictp.trieste.it)) MeteoFrance, France (MeteoFrance, France (www.meteo.fr)) Main Geophysical Observatory, Russia (Main Geophysical Observatory, Russia (www.mgo.rssi.ru)) Meteorological Research Institute, Japan (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan (www.mri-jma.go.jp)) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (www.nies.go.jp)) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand

((www.niwa.cri.nz)) Seoul National University, Korea (Seoul National University, Korea (www.snu.ac.kr:)) University of California at Los Angeles, USA (University of California at Los Angeles, USA (www.ucla.edu) )

http://www.snu.ac.kr/

http://www.ucla.edu/


Studies

Special TopicsSpecial Topics Predictability of seasonal to decadal phenomenaPredictability of seasonal to decadal phenomena

1930s drought in USA (“Dust Bowl”)1930s drought in USA (“Dust Bowl”) 1962-63 European winter1962-63 European winter Interannual to decadal variations in summer North Interannual to decadal variations in summer North

European droughtsEuropean droughts 2003 European heat wave2003 European heat wave Decadal modulation of response to ENSO in Australia, Decadal modulation of response to ENSO in Australia,

Indian monsoonIndian monsoon Time series and trendsTime series and trends

SOI, NAO, PNA, Asian monsoon rainfall, Sahel rainfall, SOI, NAO, PNA, Asian monsoon rainfall, Sahel rainfall, Nordeste Brazil rainfall, MJO trendsNordeste Brazil rainfall, MJO trends

Global and regional land surface air temperature trendsGlobal and regional land surface air temperature trends Others, e.g., river runoff trendsOthers, e.g., river runoff trends


Studies

Links to CLIVARLinks to CLIVAR

C20C became a CLIVAR activity in 2003C20C became a CLIVAR activity in 2003 Reports to Working Group on Numerical Reports to Working Group on Numerical

Experimentation (WCRP/CAS/WGNE)Experimentation (WCRP/CAS/WGNE) One purpose of this meeting: Exploring link One purpose of this meeting: Exploring link

to WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to to WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Interannual Prediction (WCRP/CLIVAR/WGSIP) (WCRP/CLIVAR/WGSIP)

Also exploring link to WCRP Working Also exploring link to WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modeling Group on Coupled Modeling (WCRP/CAS/WGCM)(WCRP/CAS/WGCM)


Studies

C20C Phases of ActivityC20C Phases of Activity Phase 1 (prior to 2003) : SST and sea icePhase 1 (prior to 2003) : SST and sea ice

Hadley Centre provides HadISST1.1 SST and Hadley Centre provides HadISST1.1 SST and sea ice data set as lower boundary conditionssea ice data set as lower boundary conditions

Integrate over 1871-2002 (at least 1949-2002)Integrate over 1871-2002 (at least 1949-2002) Ensembles of at least 4 membersEnsembles of at least 4 members

Phase 2 (2003 - ) : atmospheric compositionPhase 2 (2003 - ) : atmospheric composition Greenhouse gases – COGreenhouse gases – CO22, O, O33, etc. , etc. Aerosols (volcanic)Aerosols (volcanic) Solar variabilitySolar variability

Phase 3 (2005 - ) : land surface variabilityPhase 3 (2005 - ) : land surface variability specified evolution of soil wetness and specified evolution of soil wetness and

vegetationvegetation


Studies

Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities Results of Third C20C Workshop were reported to Results of Third C20C Workshop were reported to

CLIVAR 2004 Conference in June 2004CLIVAR 2004 Conference in June 2004 Discussion with CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Discussion with CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to

Interannual Prediction, Oct 2004, Exeter.Interannual Prediction, Oct 2004, Exeter. Inputs to relevant sections of 2007 IPCC Fourth Inputs to relevant sections of 2007 IPCC Fourth

Assessment. Assessment. Planning for comparison to coupled modelsPlanning for comparison to coupled models

Coupling to mixed layer or dynamical ocean in “Pacemaker” modeCoupling to mixed layer or dynamical ocean in “Pacemaker” mode Use of alternative SST data sets to HadISST in Pacemaker Use of alternative SST data sets to HadISST in Pacemaker

experiments including proposed HadISST2 and Reynolds SST experiments including proposed HadISST2 and Reynolds SST data.data.

Coordination with WGSIP/WGCMCoordination with WGSIP/WGCM Efficient estimation of anthropogenic signalsEfficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Planning for changing land cover forcing experiments Planning for changing land cover forcing experiments including the role of soil moisture feedbackincluding the role of soil moisture feedback

Poster presented at the

International CLIVAR 2004 Conference

Data contributed by:S.Grainger BMRC L. Marx COLAK.Jin CESRC/SNU A.Scaife Hadley CentreF.Kucharski ICTP P.Sporyshev MGOS.Kusunoki MRI J.Syktus QNRME

Global 2m land surface air temperature Winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Sahel rainfall Southern Oscillation

Data analysis prepared by: A.Scaife, Hadley Centre


Studies

IssuesIssues What are the limitations of AGCM runs that What are the limitations of AGCM runs that

have no direct coupling to the ocean have no direct coupling to the ocean surface? Are local/regional fluxes surface? Are local/regional fluxes misleading?misleading?

How should we include coupled models in How should we include coupled models in C20C work, e.g. thermohaline-forced C20C work, e.g. thermohaline-forced variations in climate? understanding variations in climate? understanding interannual predictability?interannual predictability?

How should we design the land cover How should we design the land cover experiment to most effectively meet C20C experiment to most effectively meet C20C and land surface community goals? and land surface community goals?


Studies

Future …Future … Fourth C20C Workshop in autumn 2006 tentatively being Fourth C20C Workshop in autumn 2006 tentatively being

planned for Exeter, UK.planned for Exeter, UK.This may set the main change of direction of participants to This may set the main change of direction of participants to Pacemaker Experiments and better define forcing data sets with Pacemaker Experiments and better define forcing data sets with participation of CLIVAR WG on Coupled Modeling.participation of CLIVAR WG on Coupled Modeling.

Possible session at the winter 2006-7 Annual Meeting of the Possible session at the winter 2006-7 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. American Meteorological Society.

Extend C20C back to 1850 where possible.Extend C20C back to 1850 where possible. Publication of papers on our key topics explicitly advertising Publication of papers on our key topics explicitly advertising

C20C. This has already started, but needs to be more C20C. This has already started, but needs to be more systematic.systematic.

Fifth C20C Workshop, tentatively set for late 2008 in Fifth C20C Workshop, tentatively set for late 2008 in Australia.Australia.

C20C can provide major input to Fifth IPCC Assessment C20C can provide major input to Fifth IPCC Assessment Report 2010-12 with careful planning. This will be addressed Report 2010-12 with careful planning. This will be addressed at the Fifth Workshop.at the Fifth Workshop.


Studies

This MeetingThis Meeting

MONDAYMONDAY Workshop introductionWorkshop introduction Coupled and uncoupled A-O models (3 sessions)Coupled and uncoupled A-O models (3 sessions)TUESDAYTUESDAY Uncoupled AGCM (2 sessions)Uncoupled AGCM (2 sessions) Discussion of coupled modeling for C20CDiscussion of coupled modeling for C20CWEDNESDAYWEDNESDAY Sensitivity to land surface (1 session)Sensitivity to land surface (1 session) Discussion of land cover experimental Discussion of land cover experimental

designdesign

international c20c project: background for this meeting j. kinter, cola, usa c. folland, met office,...

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