internal bmc analysis symposium.pdf · peaceful and friendly relations with all countries. we will...
TRANSCRIPT
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DISCLAIMER
• VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE SPEAKER DURING THE COURSE OF HIS TALK ARE PURELY HIS PERSONAL VIEWS AND ARE NOT TO BE QUOTED AS AN AUTHORITY OUTSIDE NOR DOES HIS VIEWS REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF ANY ORGANISATION OR POLITY.
• ITS PURELY OUT OF HIS RESEARCH WORK AND LOGIC OBTAINED FROM SWOT ANALYSIS
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“Our National Security must be based on three pillars, first a strong Economic, Technological and Social base; second, Good Defence Capability; finally, mutually beneficial partnerships in the Strategic, Economic and Technological spheres aimed at enlarging our policy choices and development options”.
Dr Manmohan Singh
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INDIAN STRATEGIC CULTURE
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INDIAN STRATEGIC CULTURE
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TO DISCUSS SECURITY CHALLENGES WITH RESPECT TO SHAPING OUR NEIGHBOURHOOD
AIM
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SCOPE
National Vision, Aim, Mission, Interests & Security Objectives
Environmental Scan – Regional and Global
SWOT Analysis and SWOT Based Strategies
Recommended National Security Strategies
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NATIONAL VISION
Reinforce as a secure, stable, secular & democratic nation
Foster nationhood
Create an India bustling with energy, entrepreneurship and innovation
Harness opportunities in IT sector, green revolution & drive towards skill development
Be a resource efficient and environmentally benign nation
Fortify India’s rightful place in the multi-centric international order
Enhance efficiency, transparency, decentralization and accountability in governance
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NATIONAL AIMS
Basic necessities of life
Economic development
Social development
Status in Comity of Nations
Science & Technology
Good governance
Work values
Territorial integrity
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“India’s Foreign Policy, with its Civilisational Roots and Heritage, is Based on the Principles of Developing Peaceful and Friendly Relations with all Countries. We will Pursue Our International Engagement Based on Enlightened National Interest, Combining the Strength of Our Values with Pragmatism, Leading to A Doctrine of Mutually Beneficial Relationships”
President Pranab Mukherjee, Joint Session of Parliament, June 9, 2014
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Four basic national interests of nation states
Defence of the homeland
Economic well-being
Creation of a favourable world order or external
environment
Promotion of national values
• Survival of the State
NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS
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NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS
Security of India’s sovereign territory with its values intact (survival of the state)
Internal stability and security
Elimination of terrorism and violent religious extremism
Creation of a secure environment conducive for sustained economic development
Access to all sources of energy, free flow of commerce, stable international economic order and financial systems
Ensuring social harmony in such a diversified society
Ensure inclusive growth by poverty alleviation and improving HDI ranking
Non-discriminatory access to scientific and technological progress
Peace and stability in its immediate neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean region
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EXTERNAL SECURITY
Existing Geo political environment
Rise of China
Competition for Global Energy and economic resources
Challenge of Terrorism
Propagation of Asymmetric warfare by Pakistan
Unresolved Border disputes
Nuclearisation in the Sub continent
Concerns of Piracy
Growing China – Pakistan nexus
Uncertainty in Afghanistan
Uncertain future of Pakistan
Radicalisation and Ethnic conflicts
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NATIONAL SECURITY OBJECTIVES
Use all elements of power available to maintain stability in the region
Build military capability
Early operationalisation of nuclear triad
Formulation of Cyber Security plan at National Level
Have a balanced conventional capability
Effective Intelligence set up.
Capability to counter any cyber threat
Achieve self- reliance in defence sector
Force capability to match any aggression by adversary
Achieve Blue Water capabilities for Navy
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STRATEGIC LOCATION
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN
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Smaller countries feel insecure
Seek support of external power
Unrealistic expectations
Look for ways to differentiate themselves
India constantly accused of interference in internal affairs of neighbours
Complex and dangerous neighbourhood
India is a regional power, a nascent global power and a potential superpower
ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN
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REGIONAL SCAN
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CHINA
• Unresolved Border
Disputes
• String of Pearls
• Economic Might
• Military Might
• Cheap Goods
• Bal of Trade
• Veto Power in UNSC
• Collusivity With Pak
• Exploit Internal Ethnic
Divisions
• Dependence on SLOCs
• Political Structure
• Economic Disparity
• Multilateral Disputes
• Trade
Where China cannot affect change, it makes the best out of the current global order and quietly pursues its own interests; but where the possibility of creating new norms exists, Beijing acts assertively.
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PAKISTAN
Opportunities
• Epicentre of Terror
• Bilateral Trade
• Islamic Terror.
• Indo US Proximity
• Economic
Dependency
Threats
• Safety of nuclear arsenal.
• Lack of political control over
military.
• Increasing sectarianism.
• Export of Terror
• Collusivity with China
• Fundamentalism
• Pak – Russian engagements
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AFGHANISTAN
Opportunities
• Increase strategic reach • Counter Taliban and IS • Build and consolidate
democratic institutions. • Strategic Partnerships • Investment in
Manufacturing hub • Market for Indian goods. • Infrastructure
Development • Energy Transit Corridor • Training of Personnel • Defence Cooperation
Threats
• Spill over and spread of
terrorism
• Unstable region
• Narco trafficking
• Base for adversaries
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• Deep rooted democracy
combined with current
political stability
• Shared historical, cultural
& people to people bonds
• Bilateral Trade
• Maritime Interests
• Cooperation in Defence
• Closeness to
China and
Pakistan
• Fishermen issue
• Tamil ethnicity
SRI LANKA “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia.”
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Opportunities
• Consolidation of
Democratic Institutions
• Re-galvanise Trade
• Express solidarity in all
global economic forum
and WTO
• HADR Operations
• Defence Cooperation
• Counter terrorism pact
Threats
• Increasing Chinese
influence.
• Social unrest
attributed to India
• Return to Maoism
• Conduit for Islamic
terrorism
Opportunities • Help in Building
Institutions
• Solidarity in Global
forum
• Skill Development
• HADR Contingency
• Defence Cooperation
• Hydro Electric Power
• Infrastructure
Development
• Training of Army
Threats
• Increasing Chinese
pressure
BHUTAN AND NEPAL
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SIKKIM
BANGLADESH
BHUTAN
NEPAL
CHUMBI VALLEY (TIBET)
SILIGURI
SILIGURI CORRIDOR
ASSAM
KOCHBIHAR
KALIMPONG
DARJEELING
MG
BG
RD
PPL
ISLAMPUR
AREA 180X 20-90 KM
NARROWEST 22X18 KM
BANGLADESH
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Opportunities
• Maritime Security
• Science and Tech
• Trade and Manufacture
• Development of Dhaka
Port
• Energy Security
• Military Training
• Joint Operations
Threats
• Water Sharing
• Relations with
China
• Indian Insurgent
Groups
• Cross Border
Illegal Activities
• Amalgamation of
Insurgent Groups
BANGLADESH
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Opportunities
• Breaking out of the Chinese
fold
• Democracy in Myanmar
• Military Cooperation
• Economic Cooperation
• Gateway to Southeast Asia.
• Infrastructure Development
• Oil Exploration
• Cooperation in Regional
Forums
Threats
• Chinese influence with the
military leaders.
• Rohingya Migration
• Indian Naga terror groups
based in Myanmar
• Increased Chinese
Activities
MYANMAR
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Opportunities
• Platform for regional stability amongst regional and mega players
• Increased attraction of region due to shrinking consumption in EU and China.
• Increased Economic Activity
Threats
• Vulnerability to external economic shocks
• Push and pull on member states due increased competition by US and China
• Territorial Disputes with China
SUPRANATIONAL (ASEAN)
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•US
•RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST
•IRAN
•IRAQ
•ISRAEL
•SAUDI ARABIA
CAR
•UKRAINE
•KAZAKISTAN
•TAJIKISTAN
ASIA PACIFIC
•SOUTH KOREA
•JAPAN
•AUSTRALIA
•VIETNAM
• MALAYSIA
AFRICA
•EGYPT
•NIGERIA
•CONGO
EUROPE
•UK
•GERMANY
•FRANCE
SUPRA NATIONAL
•UNITED NATIONS
•G 20
•BRICS
•EU
•GCC
GLOBAL SCAN
Countries
• South Korea • Japan • Australia • Vietnam • Malaysia
Opportunities • Bilateral Trade and investment • Civil Nuclear materials and tech • Maritime pact • Support India’s bid to join APEC • Civil Space Science research • Impetus to Make In India • Infrastructure building in India • Market For Exports • Defence Co-operation • Countering Chinese hegemony in the
region
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STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
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STRENGTHS IN INTERNAL ENVIORNMENT
Political
• Democracy.
• Foreign Policy.
• Judiciary system.
• Geostrategic location.
• Capable military.
Economic
• Economic growth. • Reforms. • Manufacturing and
service industry. • Renewable energy
resources. • Large Coal
deposits. • Large Work Force
and Consumer Base.
Social
• Free and liberal society.
• Unity in diversity.
• Freedom of expression.
• Strong national spirit.
• Human Resource.
Technological
• Nuclear Capability.
• Strong space and Missile Technology.
• IT and Services Sector.
• Ship building technology.
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WEAKNESSES IN INTERNAL ENVIORNMENT
Economic
• Energy imports. • Energy insecurity. • Natural gas.
• Hydroelectric potential.
Social
• Indifference to National Honour.
• Poor HDI.
• Corruption.
• Population.
• Infrastructure.
• Skilled work force.
• Environmental issues.
Technological
• Manufacturing Sector.
• Indigenisation in defence
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RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
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Use sustained economic growth to improve Infrastructure
Utilise functional democracy and proactive governance
Maintain strict internal security
Provide major impetus to ‘Make in India’ programme
Undertake secular practices in the country
Facilitate capability building of the armed forces
Use effective governance to resolve border and boundary issues with neighbours
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
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Exploit US Pivot to Asia Strategy
Use geostrategic and economic partnerships
Undertake cooperation with immediate neighbours and in IOR
Provide impetus to strategic partnerships with global mega actors
Garner international support with Geo strategic partners to marginalise Pak
Undertake proactive diplomacy with immediate neighbours
Undertake proactive military and economic diplomacy in IOR littoral states
Use geostrategic and economic partnership with neighbours and strategic
partners
Leveraging fear of Chinese hegemony in the SAARC and ASEAN countries
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES
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Political
Ensure transparency and accountability through eGovernance penetration
Use vibrant constitution and functional democracy and pro active governance
Social
Develop Higher learning institutions to global standards
Economic
Policy of constructive engagement and need for strong economic ties with neighbours
Use proactive governance for inviting greater FDI and FII
RECOMMENDED NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
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Diplomatic
Isolate and expose Pakistan in the international community
Use geostrategic and economic partnership with neighbours and strategic partners
Technology
Maintain technological edge and growth
Military
Strengthen strategic and conventional military capability
Develop a multidimensional responsive integrated C4I2STAR capability
RECOMMENDED NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
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जय हिन्द