intergovernmental oceanographic commission

Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris11

IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission

WMO DRR Expert MeetingWMO DRR Expert Meeting

IOC Tsunami Warning Systems,IOC Tsunami Warning Systems,

Operational National end-to-end Operational National end-to-end Systems, Co-ordination and SupportSystems, Co-ordination and Support

Geneva, November 27 2007Geneva, November 27 2007



Established in 1960 in UNESCOEstablished in 1960 in UNESCO

Purpose Purpose to to promotepromote international cooperation and to international cooperation and to coordinatecoordinate programmes in programmes in research, services and capacity-buildingresearch, services and capacity-building, , in order to learn more about the nature and in order to learn more about the nature and resources of theresources of the ocean and coastal areasocean and coastal areas and and to apply that knowledge for the improvement to apply that knowledge for the improvement ofof management, sustainable developmentmanagement, sustainable development,, thethe protection of the marine environmentprotection of the marine environment, and the , and the decision-makingdecision-making process of its Member States process of its Member States



Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in 1960, 2005 and 20071960, 2005 and 2007

Mandate extended to multi-hazard Mandate extended to multi-hazard approach,approach,– Specifically sea-level based hazardsSpecifically sea-level based hazards

Global oversight Working Group TOWS Global oversight Working Group TOWS under Assembly established to under Assembly established to

-- ensure coherency and consistencyensure coherency and consistency -- provide uniform governance structureprovide uniform governance structure Mandated under UNGA 61Mandated under UNGA 61


Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warningand Mitigation System

1965: 1965: IOC established the ICG/ITSU IOC established the ICG/ITSU International Coordination Group for the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific

(PTWC headquarters) (PTWC headquarters) - successful & operational - successful & operational

Tsunami Warning & Mitigation systemTsunami Warning & Mitigation system 2005: 2005: IOC established the ICG/IOTWS, IOC established the ICG/IOTWS,

ICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWSICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWS 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global

supervisory)supervisory)


United Nations role: What is the System?

Define the proper scale of problem and its Define the proper scale of problem and its solution.solution.

The system must be:The system must be:– Fully ownedFully owned by countries in region by countries in region– Based on international multilateral Based on international multilateral

cooperationcooperation– Based on open and free Based on open and free data exchangedata exchange– Protect ALLProtect ALL countries in region countries in region– Transparent and accountableTransparent and accountable to all to all

membersmembers


End-to-End SystemEnd-to-End System

ISSUE TIME OF PTWC INITIAL BULLETINS FOR TELESEISMS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

EVENT TIME (YEAR)

MIN

UT

ES

SIN

CE

QU

AK

E


FACTS: • Every Ocean Basin and Sea impacted

• Next tsunami can occur anywhere and any time

• Some countries have coasts on 2 or more basins

• No Early Tsunami Warning Systems outside Pacific in 2004

• Comprehensive Tsunami Mitigation Programme required Hazard Risk Assessment, Preparedness, Warning Guidance


Besides the Pacific system three more regions to coordinate

Criteria-relevant-appropriate-affordable-robust


Designing a GLOBAL Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System

4 Seas3 Oceans


IOC in UN partnership

ISDR

IOC

WMO

Warning guidanceHazard assessmentMitigation

Communication (GTS)Multi-hazard

Public awarenessPreparedness


How does it function? Is based on the joint operation of Is based on the joint operation of

international networks of detection international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning connected with national tsunami warning centrescentres

UN governance provided under the IOCUN governance provided under the IOC

Each nation is responsible for issuing Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and protect its warnings in their territory and protect its own population.own population.

National centres must have strong links with National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local)(national, provincial and local)


REGIONAL ELEMENTS (Pacific): REGIONAL ELEMENTS (Pacific): Regional Tsunami Warning Regional Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System and Mitigation System

NationalTWC

NationalTWC

WC/ATWCWC/ATWC

NWPTACNWPTAC

PTWC Regional

TWC

PTWC Regional

TWC

International Tsunami

InformationCentre (ITIC)

NationalTWC

NationalTWCNational

TWC

NationalTWCNational

TWC

NationalTWCNational

TWC

NationalTWCNational

TWS

NationalTWS


Describing the SystemDescribing the SystemPRESENT:PRESENT:PTWS: PTWC, PTWS: PTWC, WC/ATWC,WC/ATWC, JMAJMAInterim System (PTWC, JMA)Interim System (PTWC, JMA)

FUTURE PTWS? FUTURE PTWS? Intl System comprised of Natl/ Intl System comprised of Natl/

sub-regional TWC as countries sub-regional TWC as countries develop their own centresdevelop their own centres


Indian OceanWhere are we now?

A single system being establishedA single system being established

All countries of Indian Ocean participateAll countries of Indian Ocean participate Interim Tsunami advisory information from Interim Tsunami advisory information from

centres in Hawaii and Tokyo. centres in Hawaii and Tokyo. National 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nationsNational 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nations Governance under UN/IOCGovernance under UN/IOC Full scope of task recognized: Full scope of task recognized:

multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3) multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3) Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR, Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR,

UNDP, UN-ESCAPUNDP, UN-ESCAP

Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

1717

• 28 real-time sea level stations• 25 new broadband seismometers• Dozen technical training courses on tsunami modelling and seismic analysis

• 19 TW capacity assessment missions

• Tsunami Warning Emergency Standard Operations Procedures for Indonesia (2006-07)

• TsunamiTeacher: multi-purpose educational toolkit in English and Bahasa Indonesia (7 more languages under way)

• Various educational material on tsunamis• 23 country assessment missions

Status and achievements in the ICG/IOTWS process

(mainly through ISDR Flash Appeal)

Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris

1818

Two major tasks:

- Identify, detect, verify and predict natural extrema, such as tsunami, cyclones, earthquakes with potential implications to mankind (upstream component)

- Raise awareness and preparedness to react appropriately to warnings of such extreme events (downstream component)

The unseen part of post-disaster recovery process is an Early Warning System


IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWSIMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS

TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience):TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience):

1.1. WARNING CENTREWARNING CENTRE provides warning guidance provides warning guidance incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings; incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings;

Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn) Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn)

2.2. NDMO (recognized authority) NDMO (recognized authority) receives warning, receives warning, immediately evaluates/translates, immediately evaluates/translates, disseminates public messagedisseminates public messageAdditionally, hazard and risk, preparedness Additionally, hazard and risk, preparedness guidanceguidance

BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHERBOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER

3.3. EWS SUSTAINABILITY – MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACHEWS SUSTAINABILITY – MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACH

4.4. COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp. for regional and distant tsunamisesp. for regional and distant tsunamis

What are the essential information for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ?

The warning centre must provide:The warning centre must provide:

1) Information on the 1) Information on the earthquakeearthquake::– location and magnitude location and magnitude

2) Information on 2) Information on tsunamitsunami – time of tsunami arrivaltime of tsunami arrival – Importance of the tsunami Importance of the tsunami

(i.e, est. of amplitude of the (i.e, est. of amplitude of the tsunami)tsunami)

3) 3) SeriousnessSeriousness of the warning of the warning evaluation of the danger evaluation of the danger associated rescues to be forecastedassociated rescues to be forecasted

(Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)(Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)

• VERY RAPID VERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVALEARTHQUAKE EVAL

• VERY RAPID VERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVAL SEA LEVEL EVAL

• VERY RELIABLE VERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS COMMUNICATIONS

Multi-national, Global Nets Real-time transmission Data Sharing

ALL REQUIREDALL REQUIRED FOR WARNINGFOR WARNING

THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDSTHREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS

IOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoringIOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoringIOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoring

IO Core Seismic Network


A perfect warning will be useless

if people do not know what to do

in case of an emergency

Awareness and preparedness at the country/community level is essential


MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW?MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW? TO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSIONTO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSION Develop/implement TWC and TERP SOP

TO ACT FASTER / MAKE SURE IT WORKS, PRACTICETO ACT FASTER / MAKE SURE IT WORKS, PRACTICE

Test communications, end-to-end responseTest communications, end-to-end response

before the real thingbefore the real thing

Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequentConduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent

BEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESSBEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESS BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS

Resilient self-motivated, communities Resilient self-motivated, communities

How? People-centeredHow? People-centered

No simple process, no simple answersNo simple process, no simple answers

TAKING ACTION - WHAT TO DO:


Successes, Failures - 2006How the Pacific is responding:

3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl 3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl authauth

26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; 26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; telecom delays due to undersea cable disruptiontelecom delays due to undersea cable disruption => PTWC to provide HEADS-UP (EQ Obs Msg)=> PTWC to provide HEADS-UP (EQ Obs Msg)

17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but 17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but downstream dissemination and coordination not in place downstream dissemination and coordination not in place => SOP development, End-to-End TWC to Locals => SOP development, End-to-End TWC to Locals IOC (TWC); Local: IOC, UNDP, Germany, IFRC, USA + IOC (TWC); Local: IOC, UNDP, Germany, IFRC, USA + national/local partners; Sept - present / continuingnational/local partners; Sept - present / continuing

28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again 28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert system. In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > system. In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > M6.5 M6.5 => => SWP TWG (PTWS) - ongoingSWP TWG (PTWS) - ongoing

ITP-Hawaii Training (Tonga, Samoa TWC / NDMO), ITP-Hawaii Training (Tonga, Samoa TWC / NDMO), OctOct

IOC PTWS / WMO Reg V /SPREP TWC ws, Apr 2007IOC PTWS / WMO Reg V /SPREP TWC ws, Apr 2007


15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning 15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning threshold so no message issued - public wants info; threshold so no message issued - public wants info; statewide power outage hampers communications statewide power outage hampers communications => Advisory Clear-the-beach - new msg for Hawaii / USA=> Advisory Clear-the-beach - new msg for Hawaii / USA

15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled, 15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled, but criteria for cancellation not universally defined. No but criteria for cancellation not universally defined. No close-in-time direct confirmation of tsunami generation. close-in-time direct confirmation of tsunami generation. International coordination needed.International coordination needed.

13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov=> PTWS TWC Coordination Mtg, Jan 2007=> PTWS TWC Coordination Mtg, Jan 2007

8 PTWS TWC + IOC8 PTWS TWC + IOC Extensive discussion on all aspects of warningExtensive discussion on all aspects of warning 21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 - 21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 -

quick response with Indonesia downstream quick response with Indonesia downstream disseminationdissemination

Successes, Failures - 2006How the Pacific is responding:


1.1. KNOW and UNDERSTANDKNOW and UNDERSTAND tsunamis, risk tsunamis, risk

2.2. RECOGNIZERECOGNIZE natural warning signals natural warning signals

3.3. PLAN, and IMPLEMENTPLAN, and IMPLEMENT warning system warning system (monitor, detect, evaluate, warn)(monitor, detect, evaluate, warn)

4.4. MONITOR and WARNMONITOR and WARN everyone everyone

5.5. MAKE AWAREMAKE AWARE diverse audiences diverse audiences

6.6. KEEPKEEP preparedness going forever preparedness going foreverSystem readiness - practice to improveSystem readiness - practice to improvePersonal responsibility Personal responsibility

1.1. PREVENTPREVENT damage by making stronger damage by making stronger

TAKING ACTION - 7 stepsTAKING ACTION - 7 steps



Observations:Observations:- AwarenessAwareness- PreparednessPreparedness- Detection, verificationDetection, verification- ResponseResponse- ReliefRelief- Recovery Recovery Remarks:Remarks:

Training is Capacity Building at all levels, Training is Capacity Building at all levels, steps for those operating the and in the TWSsteps for those operating the and in the TWS



Downstream activities:Downstream activities:- Define standards, reference material, codes, Define standards, reference material, codes,

definitions of terminology on risk, hazard, definitions of terminology on risk, hazard, vulnerability, vulnerability,

- Economical, ecological, societal impact studiesEconomical, ecological, societal impact studies- ““Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get

at the people on the beachat the people on the beach- Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end

systemsystem- How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”?

Ownership, stakeholder attitudeOwnership, stakeholder attitude



Downstream activities:Downstream activities:- Define planning/zoning standards, ICAMDefine planning/zoning standards, ICAM- Develop building codes, ISEEEDevelop building codes, ISEEE- Define, introduce unique signage ISODefine, introduce unique signage ISO- Awareness material to be “regionalized”: ISDR, Awareness material to be “regionalized”: ISDR,

IFRC, WHO, WMOIFRC, WHO, WMO- Develop legal instruments: UN Ocean, DOALOS, Develop legal instruments: UN Ocean, DOALOS, - Advise on streamlining administrationsAdvise on streamlining administrations

- OECD, UNDP, UN Sec, othersOECD, UNDP, UN Sec, others



Research Needs:Research Needs:- hi-tech end: better source identificationhi-tech end: better source identification

- earthquake, tsunami generation, propagation earthquake, tsunami generation, propagation modelling, coastal inundation mapsmodelling, coastal inundation maps

- Lo-tech end: appropriate national communication Lo-tech end: appropriate national communication systems, governance, increase awareness, systems, governance, increase awareness, preparedness: establish civil defense structures, preparedness: establish civil defense structures, coastal planning, building codescoastal planning, building codes



Research Needs:Research Needs:- Clear definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability, Clear definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability, - Economical, ecological, societal impact studiesEconomical, ecological, societal impact studies- ““Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get

at the people on the beachat the people on the beach- Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end

systemsystem- How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”?

Ownership, stakeholder attitudeOwnership, stakeholder attitude


Conclusions Conclusions

OO standardization of means and contents standardization of means and contents OO keep it simple, get it cheaper keep it simple, get it cheaper OO get sustained funding get sustained funding OO don’t overload the people involved don’t overload the people involved OO training at all levels, again and again training at all levels, again and again OO upstream: upstream: clear responsibilities, instant reaction clear responsibilities, instant reaction -- 90 s off warning interval cost extra 90 s off warning interval cost extra

7 MUS$/y7 MUS$/y OO downstream: downstream: low tech, simple message, trained low tech, simple message, trained

response response


A perfect warning will be useless

if people do not know what to do

in case of an emergency

Awareness and preparedness at the country level is essential

“We cannot stop natural calamities, but we can and must better equip individuals

and communities to withstand them.”

“Should disaster strike again,and it will in some part of the world,

we must be able to say that we did everything humanly possible to build

resilient societies.”

former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan

Thank You

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