intergenerational consequences of inequality

Jane Scobie | February 11, 2009

Intergenerational Consequences of Inequality Presentation for Save the Children 15.9.09

Sylvia Beales Head of Strategic Alliances

Older people are speaking out

We’re listening

2 | HelpAge International | Communicating 'age helps’| Jane Scobie | February 11, 2009

Definition of inequalityDefinition of inequality

• The quality of being unequal; difference, or want of equality, in any respect; lack of uniformity; disproportion; uneveness; disparity; diversity;

• Inequality in size, stature, numbers, power, distances, motions, rank, property; changeableness

• Inequality of opportunity (ie to school, health, employment, amenities, land, state benefit)

• If a single person holds all of a given resource, inequality is at a maximum. If all persons hold the same percentage of a resource, inequality is at a minimum.

Inequality studies explore the levels of resource disparity and their practical and political implications


Inequalities – and human rightsUniversal Declaration of Human Rights Articles 1 -3

• All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.

Article 2.

• Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status..

• Article 3.

• Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.


Right to ‘adequate standard of living

Universal Declaration of Human rights Article 25

• (1) Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control.

• (2) Motherhood and childhood are entitled to special care and assistance. All children, whether born in or out of wedlock, shall enjoy the same social protection.

342 million older people currently lack any form of income security; this could rise to 1.6 billion people by 2050 if no action is taken on income security


Income equality measurement; Gini coefficient• A – Equality Diagonal Population = Income

• B – Lorenz Curve

• C – Difference Between Equality and Reality

• An equality diagonal represents perfect equality: at every point, An equality diagonal represents perfect equality: at every point, cumulative population equals cumulative incomecumulative population equals cumulative income

• The Lorenz curve measures the actual distribution of incomeThe Lorenz curve measures the actual distribution of income

• Gini coefficients for income range from approximately 0.230 in Sweden to 0.707 in Namibia; pension and social welfare systems in place or being piloted in high gini coefficient countries


Other inequality measurements; Human Development IndicatorsHDI – human development index; shift from income to

human development - ie

• A long and healthy life

• Access to knowledge

• A decent standard of living

Measured by

• Life expectancy at birth

• Adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;

• GDP per capita (PPP US$)

How do we measure these indicators?


Our world

Climate Change

Globalisation

Demographic transition

(Insecure) Future

Rising inequalities


Intergenerational households are the poorest

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

AVERAGE

Zambia

Uganda

Nigeria

Mozambique

Malaw i

Madagascar

Kenya

Guinea

Ghana

Gambia

Ethiopia

Cote d'voire

Cameroon

Burundi

Burkina Faso

depth of poverty (poverty gap %)

Elderly and children

Elderly persons

No elderly persons

Ultra poor: 162 million

12%

7%

76%

5%

East Asia & Pacific

South Asia

Sub-Saharan AfricaLatin America & Caribbean


Rising inequality

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1500

1600

1700

1820

1870

1900

1913

1938

1945

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Ratio Richest to Poorest Country Ratio of Top 10 to Bottom 10 Countries


Intergenerational impacts on inequality• Influence and emotional support

• Gender bias

• Health

• Schooling

• Basic amenities – water, housing

• Livelihoods - Employment

• (In)security

• Opportunities for change

Poverty - rather than wealth -is also bequeathed between generations


Demographics and development


Generational changes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

Older people Young children


Age trends by region

Population over 60 by region

365

1,231

225

193

189

118

151 4749

565

12

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2050

Mill

ion

s

Oceania

Northern America

Latin America andthe Caribbean

Africa

Europe

Asia


Demographic changes - China


Poverty of older people compared to other age groups


Generational interdependence

% of OVC and PLWHA cared for by older people

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% of OVC

% of PLWHA


Simon Bukenya, 58, Uganda


Daw Kyi Kyi Nyunt, 62, Myanmar


Consequences - work in older age

Proporiton of people over 60 in the labour force

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

World More developedregions

Less developedregions

Least developedcountries

Prop

ortio

n of

peo

ple

over

60

Men Women


Catastrophic health spend in older age

Household healthcare expenditures in last 12 months relative to expenditures for all households (=100), by household type

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Bangladesh China Slovenia Viet Nam

Co

st r

ela

tive

to

ave

rag

e f

or

all

hou

seh

old

s

All Households

No members 60+

1 member 60+

2 members 60+


Health policies not adjusted for predicted death by

Non Communicable Disease (WHO projections)2005 2006-2015 (cumulative)

Geographical regions (WHO classification)

Total deaths

(millions)

NCD deaths (millions)

NCD deaths

(millions)

Trend: Death from infectious disease

Trend: Death from NCD

Africa10.8 2.5 28 +6% +27%

Americas6.2 4.8 53 -8% +17%

Eastern Mediterranean

4.3 2.2 25 -10% +25%

Europe9.8 8.5 88 +7% +4%

South-East Asia14.7 8.0 89 -16% +21%

Western Pacific12.4 9.7 105 +1 +20%

Total 58.2 35.7 388 -3% +17%


Political will counts: Brazil reduces income inequality

Indice de GINI - Desigualdade de Renda per capita - Brasil

0,6068

0,56200,5680

0,5717

0,5829

0,5886

0,5957

0,59370,6001

0,6004

0,6019

0,5832

0,5994

1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Universal access to education since 1995 and state cash transfers (pension, bolsa familia) have reduced gini coefficient by two thirds since 2001; PNAD report 40% income growth in bottom six deciles of population source CPS S/BRE/FGV and IPC


Zambia case study of cash transfer pilots (info

from govt sources)• Increase in education, nutrition, health access, livelihood investment

(up 50%) decrease in begging

‘Without the social cash transfer scheme I would be dead and buried . The scheme has become my husband. I can only beg government to continue for the likes of us” the words of Mrs. Felistus Hamalambo an aged widow looking after 5 orphan grandchildren.

“ I am now able to eat three meals a day and have managed to buy 6 chickens and a goat” Mrs. Gertrude Simasiku a ‘sickly’ widow looking after 5 children.

‘ They encourage investments in physical, human and social capital including education, the benefits of which are felt by future generations. Regular income to older people relieves the need for adult children to support their parents, enabling households to invest in childrens health and education’


Lesotho increases universal pension

Older

people in

Lesotho

spend 20%

of their

pension on

caring for

dependant

orphans


Moving to reduce inequalities in Africa

Social Policy Framework for Africa 2008: 2.3.3.para 32 and 33

• Member States are encouraged to choose the coverage extension strategy and combination of tools most appropriate to their circumstances. There is an emerging consensus that a minimum package of essential social protection should cover: essential health care, and benefits for children, informal workers, the unemployed, older persons and persons with disabilities. This minimum package provides the platform for broadening and extending social protection as more fiscal space is created’.

• A minimum package can have a significant impact on poverty alleviation, improvement of living standards, reduction of inequalities and promotion of economic growth and has been shown to be affordable, even in low-income countries, within existing resources, if properly managed


Securing the future

intergenerational consequences of inequality

Technology

cumulative income

rising inequality

income growth

income range

inequality influence

inequality studies

definition of inequality

form of income security