inter-korean economic cooperation at a crossroads by lim wonhyuk
TRANSCRIPT
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =37
GO[LQ%JFQLMO LCFOFEGC CFFTLQM[GFO
M[ M CQFSSQFMKS
Bge Xfonw|j)
CFO[LO[S
G/ Go{qfk|c{gfo
GG/ Fplqpglx f` Go{lq%Jfqlmo [qmkl
GGG/ Sghog`gcmocl f` Go{lq%Jfqlmo [qmkl
GP/ Tfbgcw Kgbleems
P/ Cfocb|sgfo
) Bge Xfonw|j gs m @lbbfx m{ {nl Jfqlm Klplbftelo{ Gos{g{|{l mok m Ofoqlsg%
klo{ @lbbfx m{ {nl Clo{lq fq Ofq{nlms{ Msgmo Tfbgcw S{|kgls .COMTS'" Aqffjgohs
Gos{g{|{gfo/ [nl fqghgomb kqm`{ f` {ngs tmtlq xms tqlslo{lk m{ {nl =8{n \/S/%
Jfqlm mcmklegc swetfsg|e/ [nl m|{nfq xf|bk bgjl {f {nmoj swetfsg|e tmq{gcg%tmo{s `fq {nlgq nlbt`|b cfeelo{s/
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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= ;4 \/S/Jfqlm Mcmklegc Swetfsg|e
G/ Go{qfk|c{gfo
Lcfofegc qlbm{gfos al{xllo Ofq{n Jfqlm mok Sf|{n Jfqlm aqfjl emifq olx hqf|ok
go 144
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =;=
cnmohls go g{s alnmpgfq/ [nl qgc{gfo al{xllo Sf|{n Jfqlm mok {nl \og{lk S{m{ls cms{
m kmqj snmkfx fplq {nl tqfstlc{s f` go{lq%Jfqlmo lcfofegc qlbm{gfos/1
[f emjl em{{lqs xfqsl" Ofq{n Jfqlm gocqlmsgohbw cmbblk fq {nl qlsfb|{gfo f` {nl
`|okmelo{mb gss|ls {nm{ xlql abfcjgoh tqfhqlss go go{lq%Jfqlmo qlbm{gfosomelbw"
{nl bg`{goh f` Sf|{n Jfqlms amo fo pgsg{s {f {nl Jge Gb%s|oh em|sfbl|e" qlkqmxgoh f`
{nl ofq{nlqo bgeg{ bgol .OBB' go {nl Wlbbfx Slm" mafbg{gfo f` {nl Om{gfomb Slc|qg{w Bmx"
mok kgscfo{go|m{gfo f` Sf|{n Jfqlms ifgo{ egbg{mqw l~lqcgsls xg{n {nl \og{lk S{m{ls/
Go kgsc|ssgoh go{lq%Jfqlmo lcfofegc tqfilc{s xg{n emifq slc|qg{w getbgcm{gfos" s|cn
ms {nl bgojgoh f` {nl qmgbqfmks" Ofq{n Jfqlm {qglk {f aqgoh |t {nlsl mhl%fbk" |okmelo{mb
gss|ls/ Go mc{" Twfohwmoh maq|t{bw cmoclbblk mo go{lq%Jfqlmo {qmgo q|o scnlk|blk fq
Emw 1440 xnlocfo{qmqw {f g{s l~tlc{m{gfos" xngcn nmk allo snmtlk go tmq{ aw Qfn
Eff%nw|os h|sngoh qlemqjs fo go{lq%Jfqlmo qlbm{gfos go Efohfbgm lmqbglq go {nl
efo{ng{ cf|bk of{ emjl mow tqfhqlss fo {nl OBB gss|l/ Ofq{n Jfqlms egssgbl
bm|ocn fo Melqgcms Gokltloklocl Kmw `|q{nlq tfgsfolk {nl m{efstnlql fq go{lq%
Jfqlmo lcfofegc cfftlqm{gfo/ Go qlstfosl {f {nl egssgbl bm|ocn" {nl Sf|{n xlo{ sf
`mq ms {f s{ft ffk mok lq{gbgylq mgk {f {nl Ofq{n" l~clt{ fq m qlk|clk lelqhlocw mgk
sngtelo{ m`{lq m bffk go {nl Ofq{n/ @gombbw" Ofq{n Jfqlms o|cblmq {ls{ fo 7 Fc{falq
1440 snffj |t {nl plqw f|okm{gfo f` go{lq%Jfqlmo lcfofegc qlbm{gfos mok tqfet{lk
slqgf|s }|ls{gfos maf|{ {nl tfssgabl {qmos`lq f` tqfcllks qfe cfftlqm{gfo tqfilc{s {f
Ofq{n Jfqlms xlmtfos tqfhqmes/ Go tmq{gc|bmq" {nl mkft{gfo f` {nl \og{lk Om{gfos
Slc|qg{w Cf|ocgb Qlsfb|{gfo =8=> fo =; Fc{falq blk {f gocqlmsgoh klemok `fq
{qmostmqlocw/
Go s|e" mb{nf|hn go{lq%Jfqlm lcfofegc cfftlqm{gfo slles efql cfeelqcgmbbw pgmabl
{nmo lplq al`fql" g{s tfbg{gcmb f|okm{gfo nms cfosgklqmabw xlmjlolk sgocl Slt{lealq
144 Mtqgb 1440'" mok Jxmo%slg Bll" Sf|{n Jfqlms mssgs{mo{egogs{lq f` |og`gcm{gfo .== Emw 1440'/
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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= ;1 \/S/Jfqlm Mcmklegc Swetfsg|e
GG/ Fplqpglx f` Go{lq%Jfqlmo [qmkl
Go Sf|{n Jfqlm" mccfqkgoh {f {nl Bmx fo Sf|{n%Ofq{n L~cnmohls mok Cfftlqm{gfo f`
=774 mok {nl Stlcgmb Bmx fo Getblelo{m{gfo f` {nl Xfqbk [qmkl Fqhmogym{gfo
Mhqllelo{ f` =77 mok qlcfplqw qfe {nl gomocgmb
cqgsgs go =777 alhmo {f cblmq {nlsl fas{mcbls/ [nl Jge Kml%i|oh hfplqoelo{ emkl
cblmq {nm{ g{ xf|bk olg{nlq cfokfol {nl Ofq{ns mqelk mhhqlssgfo ofq sllj |og`gcm{gfoaw masfqt{gfo" a|{ gos{lmk `fc|s fo tqfef{goh go{lq%Jfqlmo qlcfocgbgm{gfo mok
cfftlqm{gfo/ [nl Sf|{n mbsf hmpl m hqllo bghn{ {f cfetmogls s|cn ms Nw|okmg {f
|oklq{mjl gopls{elo{ tqfilc{s go {nl Ofq{n mok alhmo {f tqfpgkl m sghog`gcmo{ mef|o{
3/ @fq m efql kl{mgblk kgsc|ssgfo fo {nl kfels{gc mok go{lqom{gfomb blhmb s{m{|s f` go{lq%Jfqlmo lcfofegccfftlqm{gfo" sll Mno .144
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =;3
f` n|emog{mqgmo mgk {f {nl Ofq{n/ [nl go{lq%Jfqlmo s|eeg{ f` I|ol 1444 emqjlk m
xm{lqsnlk ms {nl {xf sgkls mhqllk {f t|sn mnlmk xg{n cfftlqm{gfo tqfilc{s m{ mhfplqoelo{mb blplb/ [nl {f{mb pfb|el f` go{lq%Jfqlmo {qmkl qlmcnlk +;44 egbbgfo go
1444 mok l~cllklk +044 egbbgfo go 1441/ Aw {nl lok f` 1441" {nqll emifq go{lq%Jfqlmo
cfftlqm{gfo tqfilc{s .{nl E{/ J|ehmoh {f|q" {nl Jmlsfoh gok|s{qgmb cfetbl~" mok
bgojgoh f` {nl qmgbqfmks' nmk alh|o {f emjl sghog`gcmo{ tqfhqlss/
Go{lq%Jfqlmo {qmkl cfplqs af{n cfeelqcgmb mok ofocfeelqcgmb {qmosmc{gfos/
Cfeelqcgmb {qmosmc{gfos gocb|kl hlolqmb {qmkl mok TFC {qmkl ms xlbb ms {nl bfxs f`
hffks mssfcgm{lk xg{n lcfofegc cfftlqm{gfo tqfilc{s s|cn ms {nl Jmlsfoh gok|s{qgmb
cfetbl~ mok E{/ J|ehmoh {f|q/ @fq l~metbl" cfos{q|c{gfo em{lqgmbs mok `mc{fqwl}|gtelo{ {f al |slk aw Sf|{n Jfqlmo cfetmogls m{ {nl Jmlsfoh gok|s{qgmb cfetbl~
mql cfplqlk |oklq {ngs nlmkgoh/ Ofocfeelqcgmb {qmosmc{gfos cfosgs{ f` mgk {f Ofq{n
Jfqlm .l/h/" ffk mok lq{gbgylqs' mok {nl bfxs f` hffks mssfcgm{lk xg{n sfcgfc|b{|qmb
cfftlqm{gfo tqfilc{s mok {nl ofx kl`|oc{ Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm Lolqhw Klplbftelo{
Fqhmogym{gfo .JLKF' bghn{%xm{lq qlmc{fq .BXQ' tqfilc{/ Ms go{lq%Jfqlmo {qmkl
s{m{gs{gcs amsgcmbbw `fc|s fo {nl `bfxs f` hffks al{xllo {nl Ofq{n mok {nl Sf|{n"
tmwelo{s fq slqpgcls .l/h/" lo{qmocl `lls fq {nl E{/ J|ehmoh {f|q ms fttfslk {f
cfos{q|c{gfo em{lqgmbs qlbm{lk {f {nl {f|qgse tqfilc{' mql {mbbglk sltmqm{lbw/ M olx
cbmssg`gcm{gfo sws{le xms mkft{lk go 144< {f ql`blc{ emifq klplbftelo{s go go{lq%Jfqlmo {qmkl go qlclo{ wlmqs/ Ms snfxo go [mabl =" {nl olx cbmssg`gcm{gfo sws{le
4
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="444"444
="144"444
144
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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= ;; \/S/Jfqlm Mcmklegc Swetfsg|e
kgpgkls go{lq%Jfqlmo cfftlqm{gfo tqfilc{s go{f lcfofegc mok sfcgfc|b{|qmb cm{lhfqgls
mok nms m sltmqm{l s|acm{lhfqw fq {nl Jmlsfoh gok|s{qgmb cfetbl~/ [nl olx sws{le
mbsf tbmcls {nl E{/ J|ehmoh {f|qgse tqfilc{ |oklq {nl cfeelqcgmb qm{nlq {nmo {nl
ofocfeelqcgmb cm{lhfqw/
[mabl =9 Go{lq%Jfqlmo [qmkl aw [qmosmc{gfo [wtl" 144< .go {nf|smoks f` kfbbmqs mok
tlqclo{mhl'
Cm{lhfqgls f` {qmkl Sf|{n Jfqlm {f Ofq{n Jfqlm {f
Ofq{n Jfqlm Sf|{n Jfqlm [f{mb
[qmkl Hlolqmb {qmkl 14">01 .=/0' =>>"7=0 .1' 147"88>. 11/;'
TFC {qmkl 8>"/>' /3'
S|a{f{mb 18; .' 184"43; .141/0'
[f{mb `fq cfeelqcgmb
{qmosmc{gfos 3;7"7"
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =; Xngbl {nl Sf|{n Jfqlmo hfplqoelo{ xf|bk al xgbbgoh
{f ifgo go{lqom{gfomb l``fq{s {f abfcj Ofq{n Jfqlms gbbgcg{ mc{gpg{gls" g{ xf|bk al qlb|c{mo{
{f getfsl abmojl{ smoc{gfos fo Ofq{n Jfqlm {nm{ xf|bk cnfjl f`` blhg{gem{l lcfofegc
{qmosmc{gfos ms xlbb/7 Slf|bs tfsg{gfo gs {nm{ m tfbgcw f` tfsg{gpl qlgo`fqclelo{ qm{nlq
{nmo sxlltgoh smoc{gfos xf|bk al efql l``lc{gpl go cnmohgoh Twfohwmohs alnmpgfq/
0/ G{ xf|bk al fol {ngoh {f s{m{l {nm{ Twfohwmoh nms lohmhlk go sfel gbbgcg{ mc{gpg{gls" a|{ g{ xf|bk al}|g{l mof{nlq {f getbw {nm{ {nl Ofq{n Jfqlmo qlhgel gs cqgegomb aw om{|qlmok alwfok qlklet{gfo/ @fq{nl cqgegomb%s{m{l pglx" sll Msnlq .144/ Mb{nf|hn sfel mombws{s ls{gem{l {nm{ Ofq{n Jfqlm moo|mbbw klqgpls ms e|cn ms + egbbgfo tlq wlmq/ Go cfetmqgsfo" bfxlq%}|mbg{w cf|o{lq`lg{ of{ls slgylk go Cfbfeagm sgocl =7>7 mef|o{lk {f +3>4/4 egbbgfo" mok \/S/ c|qqlocwgo cgqc|bm{gfo xfqbkxgkl gs +8
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =;7
Go mc{" abfcjgoh blhg{gem{l lcfofegc {qmosmc{gfos q|os {nl qgsj f` emjgoh Twfohwmoh
efql kltloklo{ fo gbbgcg{ mc{gpg{gls mok mqes smbls" xg{n olhm{gpl getbgcm{gfos fq qlhgfomb
mok hbfamb slc|qg{w/
Slcfok" go{lq%Jfqlmo {qmkl xf|bk nlbt Sf|{n Jfqlm {f |oklq{mjl gok|s{qgmb
qls{q|c{|qgoh go m blss tmgo`|b emoolq/ Sf|{n Jfqlmo `gqes go {nl bmafq%go{losgpl
emo|`mc{|qgoh slc{fq mcl gocqlmsgoh cfetl{g{gfo qfe Cngom mok f{nlq bm{l%klplbftgoh
cf|o{qgls" mok {nl nfbbfxgoh f|{ f` {nl lcfofew cm|slk aw f|{xmqk fqlgho kgqlc{
gopls{elo{ .@KG' gs gocqlmsgohbw alcfegoh m cfoclqo/ Go tmq{gc|bmq" ms @gh|ql 1 snfxs"
m qmtgk gocqlmsl go f|{xmqk @KG aw sembb mok elkg|e%sgyl lo{lqtqgsls .SELs' sgocl
144= gs |oegs{mjmabl" xg{n olhm{gpl cfosl}|locls `fq `mcgbg{w gopls{elo{ mok
letbfwelo{ go Sf|{n Jfqlm/ Hgplo Ofq{n Jfqlms xgbbgoholss {f l~tlqgelo{ xg{n
stlcgmb lcfofegc yfols" {nlsl cfetmogls emw gok gopls{elo{ go Ofq{n Jfqlm m pgmabl
4/4
4/7 egbbgfo' mok {nl
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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= m m
Bmok blmsl qm{l.tlqtwfoh Z30 s}/ {/U' =
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =" {nl
cfetmow slc|qlk Jge Ifoh%gbs lokfqslelo{ fq go{lq%Jfqlmo lcfofegc cfftlqm{gfo
aw bm|ocngoh g{s meag{gf|s E{/ J|ehmoh {f|qgse tqfilc{" tqfegsgoh {f tmw f|{ +7;1
egbbgfo fplq 8< efo{ns .+1< egbbgfo lmcn fq {nl gqs{ 0 efo{ns" +> egbbgfo lmcn fq {nl
ol~{ 7 efo{ns" mok +=1 egbbgfo lmcn `fq {nl qlemgogoh 04 efo{ns" qfe Ofplealq
=77> {f Imo|mqw 144
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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= 87 go 144= {f 17>"1;8 go
144" mok +>4" qlstlc{gplbw" go 1440/
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8/3/2019 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads by Lim Wonhyuk
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =144< .go egbbgfos f` kfbbmqs mok o|ealq f` {f|qgs{s'
Ofp/ =77> 1444 144= 1441 1443 144; 14444 mk|b{s cfok|c{lk aw Nmo Hgb Qlslmqcn .Cfo{go|lJmlsfoh Gok|s{qgmb Cfetbl~ mok E{/ J|ehmoh [f|q01 Tlqclo{" Omlgb Sgoe|o" =8 Fc{falq 1440'/[nl Nmo Hgb Qlslmqcn tfbb qls|b{s cfo{qms{lk xg{n qls|b{s f` m tfbb cfok|c{lk aw IffohMoh Gbaf {nl kmw
m`{lq Ofq{n Jfqlms o|cblmq {ls{" mb{nf|hn {nl kg``lqlo{ s{q|c{|ql f` {nl tfbbgoh }|ls{gfo emjls kgqlc{cfetmqgsfo kg``gc|b{/ Go {nlIffohMoh Gbaf tfbb" 8> tlqclo{ f` {nl qlstfoklo{s smgk Sf|{n Jfqlms tfbgcw{fxmqk Ofq{n Jfqlm snf|bk al cnmohlk/ Fobw =8 tlqclo{ s|ttfq{lk cfo{go|goh xg{n lohmhlelo{ tfbgcw/
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Kwomegc @fqcls fo {nl Jfqlmo Tlogos|bm9 S{qm{lhgc & Lcfofegc Getbgcm{gfos =03
QL@LQLOCLS
Mno" K|jhl|o/ 144
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= 0; \/S/Jfqlm Mcmklegc Swetfsg|e
Bge" L|b%cn|b/ 144 Fc{falq/
/ 1440a/ M Aqgl`goh fo {nl [lqegom{gfo mok Bg}|gkm{gfo f` {nl Bghn{%Xm{lq Qlmc{fq Tqfilc{ ZgoJfqlmoU/ Slf|b9 Egogs{qw f` \og`gcm{gfo/ =4 Imo|mqw/
/ 1440c/ Hmlslfoh Gok|s{qgmb Cfetbl~9 @ql}|lo{bw Msjlk ]|ls{gfos .@M]s'/ =7 Emw/xxx/jlgm/fqh&3%Tqfhqmes&jmlsfoh/`m}s/tk`/
/ Pmqgf|s wlmqs/ Km{mamsl `fq go{lq%Jfqlmo `bfx f` hffks/
EF\ .Egogs{qw f` \og`gcm{gfo' mok JG[M .Jfqlm Go{lqom{gfomb [qmkl Mssfcgm{gfo'/ 1440/ [qloks go144< Sf|{n%Ofq{n [qmkl Zgo JfqlmoU/ Imo|mqw/
Tmqj" Slfj%sme/ 144;/ Mo Mombwsgs f` {nl Lcfofegc Getmc{ f` {nl Jmlsfoh Gok|s{qgmb Cfetbl~ ZgoJfqlmoU/ Slf|b9 Amoj f` Jfqlm/
Tqmnmq" Tl{lq M/ 1440 S{m{lelo{ al`fql {nl Slom{l S|acfeeg{{ll fo @lklqmb @gomocgmb Emomhlelo{"Hfplqoelo{ Go`fqem{gfo mok Go{lqom{gfomb Slc|qg{w" Cfeeg{{ll fo Nfelbmok Slc|qg{w mokHfplqoelo{ M``mgqs/ 1< Mtqgb/ n{{t9&&nshmc/slom{l/hfp&V`gbls&4;1