Analytical Support for Decision Making in the Security Sector

Integration of C2 and M&S elements in CAX for Crisis Management

(federation management)

Dr. Velizar Mateev Shalamanov, Institute of Parallel Processing – BAS

Sofia 1113, Akad. G. Bonchev Str., Bl. 25 A, IPP-BAS, BULGARIA

Telephone: ++ 359 (2) 9796747 Telefax: ++ 359 (2) 8707273

Email Address: Shalamanov@acad.bg

Outline

1. CAX based Model for Concept Development and Experimentation

2. M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment

3. CAX Federation Management

This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program -

Project SFP-981149 (2005-2007)

CoE in Operational Analyses (http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/)

CAX based Model for Concept Development and Experimentation

Strategic Review Process: White paper

Concept Development – list of principles and options

Scenario Development

Operational Architecture

Model Environment Set-up

Pre-exercise TrainingCAX / MAX

Analysis, Assessment, Lessons,

Recommendations

Training as a Tool for Change Management in Third Generation of Security Sector

Reform• Building of Integrated Security Sector as Goal of Third

Generation Security Sector Reform

– Defense (Sovereignty, Expeditionary Operations, Territorial defense)

– Public Order and Security

– Emergency Management / Consequence Management

– Diplomacy / protection abroad

– Information operations

• Key Pillar of Integrated Security Sector - Defense Against Terrorism and Consequence Management (Crisis Management)

• Role of Training in Change Management

Third Generation SSR for Integrated Security Sector

MoD

MoI

MoEM

MoFA

Special Services

Integrated Security Sector

MoF

A

MoD

MoI

MoE

M

Spe

cial

Ser

vice

s

One Ministry’s Operation:•Defense•Public order•Emergency management•Diplomacy•Information

Complex Crisis Management Operations of

the Integrated Security Sector

Training as a Tool for Change Management

General Education / Training

Joint CAX Planning

Individual Training

Pre-exercise Training

CAXLessons Learned Analysis

Specialized Tactical Training

• CAX are main tool for training and respectively change management of complex systems. Integrated emergency management system is a typical element of complex adaptive system, which needs effective change management internally and at the same time is an effective change management tool for the whole security sector in transition from traditional national security to civil security concept.

• CAX requires integration of traditional C2 system with M&S tools to provide real test–bed for new concepts and new technologies including the key element – people in the loop.

M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment

• M&S elements in General Architecture of JTSAC– Planning and Analysis Cell

• Planning and resource management• Assessment of CAX

– White Cell / Simulation cell• Concept to scenario transition• Simulation of scenario and environment• Simulation of IEWS/Notification System

– Operations Center• Analytical Cell DMS tools• Communications Cell planning and management tolls

• Integration between scenario M&S and C2 system

Architecture of Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Center in Civil-Military Emergency Planning / Response

(JTSAC-CMEP)White Cell IEMS

White CellWIS/LL

ScenarioDevelopment

ScenarioSimulation

Emerg callsAlerting system

Meteorological info

Hydrologicalinfo

Seismologicalinfo

IEWS

Planning,Costing,

Reporting

Briefing roomPR roomVIP room

EU, NATO, UN / MIC, EADRCC, OCHA

Ministries: MoEM, MoI, MoD, MH, MoEW, MoE, MoAF

National Media, NGOs, other agencies

District EOC/LEMA as well as OSOCCMHS/IDS/WIS

Field EOCand First responders C2 elements

MHS IDS WIS Analy- tical cell

Comms cell

Functional areas incl. PR

National EOC

M&S in JTSAC Service Oriented Architecture

Scenario Modeling

Scenario Simulation

Environment Modeling And Simulation, incl. IEWNS, Network

Basic IM tools for EMS

Decision Making Support

Information Fusion and Presentation

White Cell

Emergency Operations Center

Planning

Assessment

M&S Server

WIS serverMeta simulation data

M&S in Planning and Lessons Learned Drafting

• Life Cycle of CAX

• Key role of economic dimension and PPP

• Resource Management / Contracting

• Knowledge Management

• Business Continuity Management

M&S in CAX Planning

reporting

Problems in the transformation management in the security sector

Resources

Budget

System Architect / OpNet

General architecture

Alternatives

Expert Choice

Multi Choice2

Choice

Choice of alternatives

Activity Based Costing

MS ProjectPlanQPR

Assessment

Implementation

Balanced system of indicators

Integrated system of managementExcel/Word

M&S in CAX Assessment

YesterdayYesterday

TodayToday

TomorrowTomorrow

JTSAC ArchitectureJTSAC Architecture

How to Provide Best Environment for Experimentation and Training?

How to Provide Best Environment for Experimentation and Training?

Information FlowAnalytical SupportUse of new technologies

Information FlowAnalytical SupportUse of new technologies

Scenario and Operational Architecture

Scenario and Operational Architecture

How to Develop Best Concept and Organizational Structure for CM

System?

How to Develop Best Concept and Organizational Structure for CM

System?

Minimize reaction timeMaximize effectivenessMinimize negative consequencesIncrease Society Satisfaction

Minimize reaction timeMaximize effectivenessMinimize negative consequencesIncrease Society Satisfaction

CAX team training and development

CAX team training and development

How to form and train team and develop CAX products / services for better way achieving other goals?

How to form and train team and develop CAX products / services for better way achieving other goals?

Organizational, tasking, trainingBonus payment and retaining personnel

Organizational, tasking, trainingBonus payment and retaining personnel

FinancialFinancial

How to Minimize Time and Money for Implementation of New Concepts?

How to Minimize Time and Money for Implementation of New Concepts?

Time for planning / implementingBudget to run CAXReusability of environment

Time for planning / implementingBudget to run CAXReusability of environment

Need for “proxy” organization

• BAS and JTSAC role

• Cooperation with NATO– NSC– RTO

• Cooperation with EU– DG Environment– 6 and 7 FP

• Cooperation on bilateral basis

• Regional (SEE, WBSA) cooperation

CAX and Real C2

• CAX without real C2 system

• CAX with real C2 System– Direct link

• C2 => M&S• M&S => C2• M&S C2

– Link through “air gap” and human processing• Trainees• Support staff• Combined

CAX Federation

Federation Network BUS

MoD MoI MoSPDA MoFA

PMA and CBM

PMA – Planning, Management and Assessment; CBM – Continuity of Business Management; DMS – Decision Making Support; M&S – Modeling and Simulation; DB – Data base; GIS – Geographic Information System; e-GRID – European R&D network of computing resources

Scenario Development

Scenario Simulation

M&S tools or real C2 of:

DB

GISMHS

WIS

IDS

Natural Environment M&S

from BAS Institutes

Design and M&S of the Technology

Diagrams as well as the Network and

Comms / Info Assurance

Government – Security Council, Standing Committee on Protection of Population: Integrated Security Sector

Internet DMS

e – GRID

Computing resource

International Organizations

Three critical elements

There are four critical elements in CAX architecture

• simulation cell

• operations cell

• analytical cell

• comms cell

that need conceptual, information, hardware and software integration in order to support realistic flow of the training process.

Key mechanismCurrent paper explores a model of such integration based on

static and dynamic technological diagrams with distributed nodes in these four cells.

In normal C2 system all nodes will “sit” in operations and analytical cell with tendency to have as much as possible of them in the analytical cell providing scientific best solution for problems arising during crisis management scenario.

In exercise simulation cell has to cover all nodes that is impossible to be covered by operations and analytical cells.

So in one end is a system with participants in the exercise only looking at closed simulation run by simulation cell, without any input from operations or analytical cell.

Next step is

when we have some nodes implemented in analytical or operations cell and at the other end is a full C2 system where there are no elements in simulation cell – all of the nodes are implemented in operations and analytical cell.

Interoperability patchwork1. Memorandum of Understanding between organizations

2. Standard Operating Procedures / Documents

3. Scenario as event / message list (Operational Architecture related)

4. Basic MHS/WIS/IDS to support interagency cooperation on proxy basis

5. GIS and DB (common for all organizations on proxy basis)

6. Environment simulation from different BAS Institutes – hydrology, meteorology, seismology, remote sensing, …

7. Internet simulated comms and computing power

8. CAX Federation BUS management based on Technological Diagrams

9. Integrated Implementation Plan and Balance Score Card Assessment

Conclusions - I1. Growing number of new and diverse concepts – need

for rapid experimentation and adaptation

2. Horizontal nature of the new concepts – need for cross culture training

3. Key element in concept implementation / change management is the personnel – people in the loop model for experimentation is needed

4. Low cost and flexibility of training environment is a prerequisite for large scale implementation

5. CAX and MAX balance in training and experimentation is needed

Conclusions - II

6. Evolutionary development (prototyping) and rapid implementation of the results of experimented concepts is required (CoE-OA => JTSAC-CMEP => EU TACOM SEE-2006 => IEMS FS example)

7. Integration of efforts of Administration / Forces, R&D / E&T academic institutions and business based on M&S environment is a must

8. Proxy Organization is needed to provide patchwork interoperability between all participant in federation

9. JTSAC-CMEP is a tool set to provide environment for federation management