institutionalizing proactive drought policy and management in brazil · 2014-04-09 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Institutionalizing Proactive Drought Policy and Management in Brazil
Nathan Engle, Climate Change Adaptation Specialist, World Bank &
Erwin De Nys, Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank
2014 Symposium: Drought – In the Life, Cultures, and Landscapes of the Great Plains Plenary Session 4: The Global Context for Drought in Similar Environments: Case Studies
April 3, 2014
Lending vs. Knowledge vs. Policy vs. Convening
Federal AND state lending and technical assistance
Long history and many current programs to strengthen management of water resources at the national and sub-national level – Federal Water Resources Management Project (PROAGUA)
– Low Income Sanitation Technical Assistance Project (PROSANEAR)
– Ceará Integrated Water Resources Management Project – PROGERIRH
– Ceará Sustainable Rural Development Project and emergency response plans
Interaguas to improve the capacity of key government water sector institutions to coherently design and implement water policies and prepare investment plans (including technical exchanges)
Climate change adaptation plan
Water security strategy
World Bank – Water and Climate Change in Brazil
Households with Adequate Water Supply in Ceará state, 2000 vs. 2010
Progress in Brazil
School of Natural Resources Applied Climate Sciences While many associate drought principally with the world’s
drylands, DROUGHT occurs in virtually ALL climate regimes
World’s Drylands
Officially 73 year-long or multi-year droughts registered in the Northeast
Current in the Northeast since 2012 is the worst in the past 50-100 years
Recurrent Droughts
Significant losses of cattle and agriculture (heritage breeds, genetic diversity)
Likely to get worse in the immediate term and long term
Climate Change Scenarios for Northeast Brazil
Source: Hydrological Website (FUNCEME and COGERH) 10th March, 2013, http://www.hidro.ce.gov.br/
Dams with more than 50% of water stored at 10th of March 2013
Dams with less than 50% of water stored at 10th of March 2013
Impact on Reservoirs – March 2013
Source: Hydrological Website (FUNCEME and COGERH) 10th March, 2013, http://www.hidro.ce.gov.br/
Dams with more than 50% of water stored at 25th of March 2014
Dams with less than 50% of water stored at 25th of March 2014
Impact on Reservoirs – March 2014
Extremely dry winter for Southeast Brazil
– Economic heart of the country
– Main reservoir system, Cantareira, dropped to below 14% capacity last week; same time last year was at nearly 62%
– Poor long-term planning for droughts (and growth) in this region
– São Paulo/Rio de Janeiro “water wars”?
Cupa do Mundo
Opportunity to get the attention of decision makers at a nationwide level
Shaping the Institutional and Political Landscapes
World Bank’s Approach to DRM
Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness
Drought Preparedness
Program’s Framework
Three Pillars
– Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
– Vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments
– Mitigation and response planning and management
Two levels in parallel
Level 1 – Dialogue on National Drought Policy
Level 2 – Northeast Regional Pilot Project(s)
- Northeast Drought Monitor (MSNE – acronym in Portuguese)
- Drought Preparedness Plans at multiple scales (river basin committee, cities’ water supply companies, and rural rainfed agricultural communities)
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Federal Drought Institutional Mapping
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Mapeamento Institucional
Instituições
MI MMA MDA MDS MPOG MAPA MCTI BNB MD MME MF Casa Civil
Secretaria Geral da Presidência da República
COMDEC CEDEC
1. Monitoramento, Previsão e Alerta Precoce
ANA INMET EMBRAPA
INPE CPTEC INPA CEMADEN
2. Avaliação do Impacto, Vulnerabilidade e Resiliência
SEDEC CENAD
ANA BNB geral
3. Planejamento e Medidas de Mitigação e Resposta
3a. Planejamento e Medidas de Mitigação (Pré-Emergência)
SUDENE SEDEC DNOCS SIH SDR CODEVASF
MMA geral ANA
3b. Planejamento e Medidas de Resposta (Emergência)
SUDENE SEDEC DNOCS CODEVASF
ANA MDA geral MPOG geral
CONAB BNB geral MD geral CPRM CHESF
MF geral Casa Civil geral
Secretaria Geral (com Casa Civil)
COMDEC (com MD e MI)
CEDEC (com MD e MI)
Políticas e medidas específicas
MI Grupo de Trabalho Bolsa Estiagem, Operação Carro Pipa
Garantia Safra
Programa Um Milhão de Cisternas
MI Grupo de Trabalho Força Nacional de Emergência Comitê Integrado de Combate à Seca
Ministry of National Integration leading a series of consultation workshops in the Northeast from in March & April, 2014
11 states (3-4 at time) culminating in a regional seminar in Fortaleza, Ceará
Discussing issues such as:
1. Relevance and goals of a national drought policy
2. Functions and responsibilities of various institutions involved in drought management
3. Monitor de Seca do Nordeste (MSNE) and the associated network
4. Financing drought policies and management
5. Drought preparedness plans
6. Measures to mitigate long-term risk and structural issues
7. Drought committees/councils and communicating drought risk and responsesle
National Drought Policy Dialogue
INTEGRAÇÃO DA BASE DE DADOS METEOROLOGIA
INMET CEMADEN ANA FUNCEME + CENTROS
ESTADUAIS
INTEGRAÇÃO DA BASE DE DADOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS
CEMADEN ANA AGÊNCIAS ESTADUAIS DE
ÁGUAS
CPTEC
AG
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C. D
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Validação com Atores Locais
Helping to convene a transparent and open forum for the Northeast
Develop a process for systematically monitoring, forecasting, and reporting/verifying droughts and their impacts
Links with national policy dialogue and the drought preparedness plans
MSNE is the Anchor (Conversation Starter)
A. Planning group
B. Validation group
C. Dissemination group and network
D. Federal, state, and local authorities
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Workshops: Build the network, capacity, and excitement/momentum
Training: U.S. (NDMC) & Mexico (Conagua/Met Service), March 2014
Institutional and operational designs: Link federal -> regional -> state -> local interests around something tangible to help pave the way for broader reforms (NIDIS-like vision)
Robust monitoring and evaluation
Next steps:
– Prototype in June
– Validation and capacity building phase June-December
– Operational Monitor in 2015
MSNE’s Role in Institutionalization – Feedback Loop
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MSNE Experimental Map
Grounded in the three pillars framework
Diverse community types (i.e., river basin planning, urban water management, and rural rainfed agriculture)
Operational
Illustrate utility and examples of “what could be”
– Templates, tools, and methods
– Benefit-cost analysis of proactive planning for droughts, robust decision making, vulnerability assessments
Link with other World Bank programs
Drought Preparedness Plans
Typical Drought Management
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Don Wilhite, University of Nebraska, Lincoln
“Se você fizer o que sempre fez, terá os mesmos resultados de
sempre”
“Nós DEVEMOS adotar um novo paradigma de
gestão da seca!”