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INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY. IES. The Global Prospects for Unconventional Gas Russian view. Alexey GROMOV PhD in Economic Geography Deputy General Director Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow. Key challenges and risks for the Global Energy Sector. IES. 2. IES. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY
The Global Prospects for Unconventional Gas
Russian view
Alexey GROMOV
PhD in Economic GeographyDeputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow
Key challenges and risks for the Global Energy Sector
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3
Oil Sands in Canada
Shale Gas in the USA
Heavy Oil in Venezuela
Oil extraction on Brazilian Offshore
Renewables in EU
Energy Consumption
Growth in ChinaOil of the
Middle East LNG in Qatar
Non Conventional Energy Sources in China
Lybia
Energy Regionalization is more actual than Globalization
In case of global instability and high volatility of oil prices, the major energy importers try to develop their own sources of energy, including UNCONVENTIONAL sources
Unconventional gas
• Shale Gas
• Coal-Bed Methane
• Tight Gas
• Methan Hydrates
• Biogas
“Golden Age” of Unconventional Gas is coming?
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FormerSoviet Union
Asia-Pacific North America
Latin America Europe
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Unconventional Gas resources are concentrated in the major energy importers countries
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Unconventional Gas can be cheaper than conventional gas…
Significant dependence on external supplies
But “Unconventional Gas” Revolution happened only in the USA…
Regional Gas balances 2011
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Who’s next?
Europe?
China?
The World?
Future role of unconventional gas in Europe
Unconventional gas in Europe can’t solve the problem of import dependence, but it will help to reduce it
Sources: Institute of Energy Strategy9
Shale Gas
The main restrictions of Unconventional Gas Revolution in Europe
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Europe: Not Unconventional Revolution but Energy Diversification
Own oil&gas production
Renewables
Unconventional Gas
Biofuels
CCS
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Coal
The main goal is to reduce the energy import
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Unconventional Gas: the main consequences for Russia
Concurrence?
Sales Market loss?
decline of Russian Gas Industry?
• Russia has a huge conventional resources to develop production of gas• Unconventional resources will not play significant role in the gas mix in 20 years
Reserves, resources and production of gas in Russia
Sources: Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030, Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia13
Export expectations vs. reality
368
349
234
203
300
150
175
200
225
250
275
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325
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375
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2008 (факт) 2009 (факт) 2010 2015 2020 2030
bc
m
Forecast 2030 max Forecast 2030 min Our expectationes
Risk of decrease in export on 15-20%
15-20%
Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030 Factors of decrease in export expectations
Europe: Competition growth
US: refuse of future Russian LNG (the boom of shale gas production)
Asia-Pacific: competition growth (Central Asia)
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Russia's natural gas exports to Europe will be stable
Sources: Institute of Energy Strategy15
But Russian share in EU gas market will be continue to decline…
Russia continue to lose price competition in Europe…
NBP spot Russian gas at the Germany border
Brent
doll. per tcm
doll. for barr.
But spot prices will grow, also limiting demand
Conclusion
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Thank you for your attention
www.energystrategy.ru
Alexey GROMOVDeputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow
The Energy of the Future in our Hands